Fisheries - MCCIP · 2019-05-10 · 75. FISHERIES MCCIP Science Review 2017 to a displacement of 37.7 km per °C (based on spring mean SST for the region). However, the association

MARINE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS PARTNERSHIP: SCIENCE REVIEWMCCIP Science Review 2017: 73 - 89

Published online July 2017 doi:10.14465/2017.arc10.007-fis

FisheriesJohn K. Pinnegar*,+, Angus Garrett#, Stephen D. Simpson$, George H. Engelhard*,+,

and Jeroen van der Kooij*

*Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK+School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK#Seafish, 18 Logie Mill, Logie Green Road, Edinburgh, EH7 4HS, UK$Biosciences, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter, EX4 4QD, UK

KEY HEADLINES

• Since2006,theevidencebasewithregardtounderstandingclimatechangeimpactsontheUKfishingindustryhasadvancedsubstantially,althoughmanyofthekeythemescoveredin2006remainhighlyrelevanttoday(e.g.recruitmentvariability,shiftsindistribution,newlyemergingfisheries).

• AparticularfocusinrecentyearshasbeenthespreadofmackerelintoIcelandicandFaroesewaters,withcon-sequencesforfisheriesquotaallocationandgovernance.Changesinmackereldistributionhavebeenlinkedtoseveralpossiblefactors,includingwarmerseas,changesinfoodavailabilityandadensity-dependentexpansionofthestock.Thedifferentmechanismsarenotnecessarilymutuallyexclusiveandmayhaveactedsynergistically.

• IntheNorthSea,whereanimportantsummertrawlfisherytargetingsquidhasdeveloped,squidnumbershaveincreaseddramaticallyoverthepast35-years.Significantpositiverelationshipswerefoundbetweenthisincreaseinsquidabundanceandclimatevariablessuchasseasurfacetemperature.

• Overthepastfewyears,manyhundredsofpapershavebeenpublishedfocusingontheimpactsofoceanacidifi-cation,however,thereisstillalackofconclusiveevidenceastopossibleconsequencesforcommercialfisheries.ArecenteconomicsstudyforEuropeasawholesuggestsannualeconomiclossesby2100intheUnitedKingdom,theChannelIslandsandtheIsleofMancouldamountto97.1,1.0and12.7millionUS$,respectively,underaworst-casescenario.

• Thewinterof2013/14wasidentifiedasoneofthestormiest(intermsofwindspeeds,waveheights,etc.)ofthepast66years.TheUKfishingindustrywasseverelydisrupted,withmanyvesselstiedupinportforatleastfivemonths.UnderstandingofhowstorminessintheUKwillbeimpactedbyfutureclimatechangeremainsverylimited.

• Europeanseabasshadbeenheldupasa‘posterchild’ofmarineclimatechangeintheUK.Evidencesuggeststhatpopulationsdidexpanddramaticallyintheearly2000s,howeverinrecentyearsfishingmortalityhasreachedunsustainablelevelsandadvanceofthisspecieshasbeenseverelycurtailed.

• ChangesinfishdistributionpatternshavefeaturedinallpreviousMCCIPreportcards.ManyadditionalUKstudieshavebeenconductedoverthepast10years,usingscientificsurveydataandinformationfromcommer-cialcatch-per-unit-effort,thathaveconfirmedtheinitialfindings.

• FormanyyearsithasbeenarguedthatcodmightnotbeabletopersistaroundtheUKinthefuture,ifseawatertemperaturescontinuetorise.Despitedramaticanddeliberatereductionsinfishingmortality,codstockshavenot‘recoveredasquicklyasexpected,largelyasaresultofcontinuedpoorrecruitmentrelatedtoprevailingcli-maticconditions.Eventsofthepast10yearshavefollowedtrajectoriespredictedbymodellingstudies.

1. INTRODUCTIONFishingremainsoneofthemostimportantmaritimeactivitiesin the theUnitedKingdom. In 2014, themost recent yearforwhichpublisheddatawereavailable(MMO,2015),UKfishing vessels landed 756,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish,accruingarevenueofaround£861million.Thiscomparesto610,000tonnesand£610millionin2006;theyearinwhichthefirstMCCIPreportcardwaspublished.Fishingnow(in2014)employsaround11,845fishermen,comparedto12,934in2006andtherehasbeenasimilardecreaseinthenumber

ofUKfishingvesselsoverthisperiod–decliningfrom6,752in2006to6,382in2014(thetotalenginepowerofthefleethasdeclinedfrom863,496kWto789,714kW).TherecentcontractionintheUKfishingindustryhasbeenaresultofdeliberate interventions to control fishing pressure and toensure sustainable exploitation of European fish stocks,but also, to some extent, reflects the underlying influenceof climatic factors that determine the level of fishing thatcan be sustained by fish populations, given the prevailingenvironmentalconditions.

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n terms of tonnage the most important species to UK fisheries (landings in the UK and abroad) in 2014 were mackerel Scomber scombrus (288,000t), herring Clupea harengus (97,700t),scallopsPecten maximusandAequipecten opercularis (39,100 t) and haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus (36,100t). In terms of value, they were mackerel (£227 million), Nephrops norvegicus [langoustine/scampi](£99million), scallops (£59 million) and haddock (£50million). Over the past 10 years, since the first MCCIPreport card, the composition of UK catches has changedappreciably, for example mackerel have become moreimportantintermsof overall tonnage, with increases alsoobserved for crabs (mostly Cancer pagurus), whelksBuccinum undatum, plaice Pleuronectes platessa and codGadus morhua. Meanwhile catches of Nephrops andblue whiting Micromesistius poutassou have decreasedoverthepast10years.Per capita consumption of fish in the UK hasremained relatively stable (and low) at around 7.6kg/person/yr(compared to 8.7 kg/person/yr in 2006) andimports have stayed broadly similar at 721,000 tonnes(753,000 tonnesin2006)including91%ofallcod(92.5%in2006), and 53% of all haddock (66% in 2006). The vastmajority of the fish consumed by UK citizens(supermarkets refer to “the big 5”: cod, haddock, tuna,salmonandprawns;whichaccountfor80% of the Britishretailers' total seafood sales) are derived from imports,whereas the majority of fish and shellfish actuallycaughtbyUKfishermenareexported.Since 2006 the evidence base with regard tounderstanding climate change impacts on the UKfishing industry has advanced substantially, althoughmany of the key themes covered in the 2006 MCCIPreport (Pinnegar, 2006) remain highly relevant today(e.g. recruitment variability, shiftsin distribution, newlyemerging fisheries). A considerable amount of newmodellingandobservationalworkhasbeencarriedoutoverthisinterveningperiod(e.g.Rijnsdorpet al.,2009; Cheunget al., 2011; Petitgas et al., 2013; Jones et al., 2015;Rutterford et al., 2015) offering new insights into likelyfuture consequences for fish populations or distributionsand hence for UK fisheries. Added to this MCCIPpublished aspecial report card in 2012 focusing on fish,fisheries and aquaculture explicitly, and this spurredconsiderable media interest in this topic, with articlespublished in Scientific American, The Guardian, BBCWildlife and The Scotsman,aswellastelevisionandradiointerviews.Variouscampaignsand activities in the UK aswell as publication of the 5thAssessment Report of theIPCC in 2014 seem to have also coincided withacceleration in the number of relevant peer-reviewedscientific publications. In earlier years the emphasis wasmostly on the biology of commercially important species,whereas in recent years, greater emphasis has beenplacedon understanding economic and social consequences,especially for fleets and fishermen (e.g. Fernandes et al.,2017;Joneset al.,2015).Notably, introduction of reporting requirements underthe2008UKClimateChangeActseemstohavepromptednew work related to sea fisheries. In 2012 Defracommissioned its ‘Economics of ClimateResilience’ (ECR) report on sea fisheries and this studyincluded a detailed assessment ofwhetherornottheUKfish catching sector could be expected to adapt to theopportunities and threats associated with future climatechange. InDecember2015,Seafish(the tradebodyfor thecommercial fisheries sector in theUK) published a report“Understanding and responding to climate change in theUK wild capture seafood industry” (Garrett et al., 2015)that aimed to support the UK seafood industry indevelopingamanagedadaptiveapproachtoclimatechange.At the European level, initiatives such as the North SeaRegion Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) have

attempted to provide a broader perspective and have included chapters on fisheries, drawing heavily on the outputs fromMCCIP. Similarly, in 2016 two EU Horizon2020 research projects (CERES and CLIMEFISH) werecommissioned,withtheaimto“providetheknowledge,toolsand technologies needed to successfully adapt Europeanfisheriesandaquaculturesectorsinmarineandinlandwatersto anticipated climate change”.This will include economicassessments of climate change impacts on these twosectors, but also the development of practical adaptationmeasures that fishermen, farmownersand aquatic resourcemanagers can adopt to successfully adapt to forthcomingclimate change threats or to capitalise on emergingopportunities.The following briefing paper aims to summarize what hashappened since the last MCCIP report card was publishedin2013,but also to takea longer-termretrospectiveviewofhowthefieldhasmovedonoverthepast10years,sincethefirstMCCIPreportwaspublishedin2006.2. TOPIC UPDATE2.1 Distributional ShiftsOne of the themes that has repeatedly been raised inMCCIP reports over the past 10 years has been observedshifts in the distribution of species, including commercialfish. A particular focus has been the apparent westwardand northwest-ward spread of Atlantic mackerel intoIcelandicandFaroesewaters,withconsequencesforfisheriesquota allocation and governance. Since 2013 the scientificevidence-base with regard to Atlantic mackerel, Scotland’smost valuable fishery,has increased considerably, andhencewe are now better able to describe the drivers behind thisrecentphenomenon,andconsequences for fisheries inmoredetail.After spawning, which typically takes place off northwestScotland(buttosomeextentalongtheentireEuropeanshelffromGibraltar toScotland) fromFebruary to July,mackerelmigrate to the feeding grounds. Until the mid-2000s, thefeeding grounds were mostly limited to the northern partof the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, although thereare indications of previous expansions into Icelandicwatersduring warm periods in the past, such as in the 1920s tomid-1960s (Astthorsson et al., 2012). In Icelandic waters,mackerel were previously only sporadically observed andhence theywereconsideredtobevagrants(Astthorssonetal.,2012). In 2006, mackerel was first observed in significantamounts east of Iceland as by-catch in the Norwegianspring-spawning herring fishery (they have since beenobserved as far north as Svalbard;Berge et al., 2015) and alarge directed mackerel fishery has grown to exploit theexpanding population. The recent changes in mackereldistribution have been linked to several possible factors,including warmer seas, changes in food availability and adensity-dependent expansion of the stock (ICES, 2013a).The increase of mackerel also inits traditional feeding areaof thenorthernNorthSea (vanderKooijet al.,2016)hasledto increasing pressure on local food resources and, possiblycompoundedbysmallnumbersofzooplanktonprey insomepartsof its traditionalhabitat(Norwegian Sea, ICES 2013b),is likely to have driven this expansion through a density-dependent mechanism. This is also confirmed by adecreasing length and weight-at-age in recent years(Olafsdottiret al., 2016).As temperatureshave increased inthe north and northwestern extremities of the species’distribution, where colder water temperatures werepreviously a limiting factor (ICES, 2013a), mackerel havebeen able to expand their range. The differentmechanismsmay, therefore, have acted synergistically (Hughes et al.,2015).Hughes et al., (2014) suggested that sea surface temperature(SST)hadasignificantpositiveassociationwiththeobservednorthwardandwestwardmovementofmackerel,equivalent

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toadisplacementof37.7kmper°C(basedonspringmeanSSTfortheregion).However, theassociation withclimaticindices is not straightforward (Hughes et al., 2015). AcomprehensivestudyofmackerelrecordsbyAstthorssonet al., (2012) highlighted 2007 as the year when distributionfirst started to change, but found that there were warmeryearsbefore2007,soasimpletemperaturemechanismdoesnotseemlikely.Thisobservationissupportedbythelackofa strong linear relationship between mackerel occurrenceoff Iceland and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) — a commonly used proxy for variations inNorthAtlantic seawater temperature. However, Hugheset al. (2015) detected a significant climate effect on thedepth of area fished, where mackerel were generallycaught in areas of greater depth during positive AMOyears. In addition, the AMO appeared to have a non-linear relationship with the spatial extent of mackerelcatches, with an increased total fishing area in positiveAMOyears.The relationship of the depth of area fished with thewinter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was morecomplex.Mostpositive winterNAO years were associatedwith fishing indeeper areas, butwith some suggestionoffishing in shallower regions in the most positive NAOyears (Hughes et al., 2015). Similarly, negative NAOvalues were associated with fishing in shallower areas onaverage, except for the two most negative NAO years,where fishing was in deeper areas. The non-linearrelationships between catch variables and climate indicesmay reflect the complexity of the oceanographicprocesseslinkedtoanindexsuchastheNAO.Forexample,apositiveNAOleadstowarmtemperatureanomaliesintheNorth and Norwegian Seas, but a negative winter NAOis associated with warm temperatures west of Iceland(Hugheset al.,2015).In October 2009, North Sea mackerel appeared tohave moved away from the Norwegian Sector andNorwegian vessels attempted to follow the fishwestwards resulting in disagreements over permissiblecatches by Norwegian boats in Scottish (EU) waters(see Fishing News, 9th October 2009). Shortly after,Iceland and the Faroe Islands unilaterally claimed quotaformackerel (146,000 and150,000 tonnes, respectively, in2011; or 46% of total catches), since the species hadsuddenly attained high abundance in their territorialwaters for the first time. These events prompteddifficultpolitical negotiations that lasted for a further fiveyears.A partial resolution to the long-standing politicaldispute regarding mackerel quotas in the NorthEastAtlantic (NEA) was brokered on 12 March 2014. Afive-year arrangement was reached between the EU, theFaeroeIslandsandNorway(butnotIceland).Thesituationin 2016 is that the three parties agreed a total allowablecatch (TAC) of 895,900 tonnes (shared 201,663 tonnes toNorway,112,892tonnes to the Faroe Islands and 441,586tonnes to the EU)with an additional 15.6% nominallyset aside for otherunspecifiedcountries(i.e.IcelandandRussia),althoughthisis stillhighly contentious.Hugheset al. (2015) suggest that future models of catch sharingshould not rely on previous understanding of mackereldistributional patterns in theliterature, and that a morenuanced understanding of fleetdynamicswillbenecessary.Hannesson(2013)constructedamodeltoexaminesharingof the Northeast Atlantic mackerel stock using ‘gametheory’. Responses were analyzed as a game betweenfour parties: the European Union, Norway, the FaroeIslands, and Iceland. Consideration was given to theimportance of the nature of the migration as a factor indeterminingthebargainingpositionofeachof theparties.If the migration of the stock into a minor party’s zonedepends on stock abundance (density dependentexpansion), as the case seems to be for themigrations ofthe mackerel into the Icelandic zone, the bargainingposition of theminor player is weak. By choosing a highenoughfishingmortality,themajor

playerscouldtheoreticallyreduceoraltogetherpreventthemigrationsofthestockintotheminorplayer’szoneandthusshutthemoutofthefishery(Hannesson,2013).As an added aside to the mackerel re-distribution story,MacKenzie et al. (2014a) reported that commercial boatstargetingmackerelinwaterseastofGreenlandhavestartedcatching bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus for the first time.Thepresenceofbluefin tuna in thenorthAtlantic is likelyduetoacombinationofwarmerwatertemperaturesthatarephysiologically tolerable and immigration of an importantpreyspecies(mackerel)totheregion.AparallelphenomenonhasbeenreportedoffsouthwestEngland,wherelargeschoolsof bluefin tuna were observed in 2015 and again in 2016,havingbeenabsentformanydecades(JeroenvanderKooij,Pers.Obs.,andMailOnline,21August2015).Anotherpersistent featureofMCCIPreportsover thepast10yearshasbeen the suggestionof increasing cephalopod(squid, cuttlefish and octopus) populations, and the oftenrepeated statement that: “more boats are now trawling forsquid than the region’s traditional target species, such ashaddockandcod,”(originallyfromHastieet al.,2009).Since2013, a number of high-profile research papers have beenpublishedthatsupportthisclaim.Mostnotably,Doubleday(2016) assembled global time-series of cephalopod catchrates (catch per unit of fishing or sampling effort), anddemonstrated that cephalopod populations have increasedgloballyoverthelastsixdecades;aresultthatisremarkablyconsistentacrossahighlydiversesetofcephalopodtaxa.Thisstudy included many time-series from around the UnitedKingdom(surveydatasuppliedbyCefas).Amoredetailedanalysis by van der Kooij et al. (2016) extracted squidcatches fromaunique35-year time-seriesof bottom trawlsurveydataintheNorthSea(1980–2014);collectedduringlate summer (August–September).Changes in distributionandabundancewerecomparedwithkeyclimaticvariables.Squiddistributionacross theNorthSea increasedover the35-yeartimeseries.Significantlypositiverelationshipswerefoundbetween this increaseandclimatevariables for eachof thedominant individual taxastudied,andalsowhenallspecies were combined. Loligo expanded southward froma predominantly north-easterly distribution, compared tonorthwardexpansionsbyAlloteuthisandtheOmmastrephidaefrom their core distributions in the southern and centralNorth Sea, respectively. In the Economics of ClimateResilience report commissioned by Defra in 2013, squid(Loligo vulgaris) distributions were projected to expandnorthwardsbyaround445kmoverthenext40years(habitatsuitability inUKwaters increasingbyaround31%).Xavieret al. (2016) used similar models to predict distributionchanges for European cuttlefish Sepia officinalis. Theseauthors suggested thatS. officinaliswill continue to spreadnorthwards and that it could eventually reach Americanshores by crossing the north Atlantic (via stepping-stonesin Iceland and Greenland) from the UK, assuming futureclimatechange.TheUK trade newspaper FishingNews included a specialfeatureonexpandingsummersquidfisheries intheMorayFirth on 14th January 2016.This article stated that: “It is probably fair to say that none of the trawlers fishing squid in the Moray Firth at the time of this trip were doing so out of choice. Rather, their presence was directly associated with the necessity to maintain some form of income when restrictions were preventing them from engaging in their preferred fisheries”. Alsothat: “The need to purchase customised squid trawls means that gearing-up for a fishery that usually lasts for just two months [each year], and sometimes considerably less, requires considerable initial outlay”. Overthecourseofthepast3years(sincethe2013MCCIPreport),anumberofnewhigh-levelmodellingreportshave



beenpublishedthatofferrealinsightsintofutureimpactsofclimatechangeonUKfisheries.Rutterfordet al. (2015)usedfishsurveydata, togetherwithgeneralizedadditivemodels(GAMs), to predict trends in the future distribution ofspeciesintheNorthSea,andconcludedthatfishspeciesoverthenext50yearswillbestronglyconstrainedbyavailabilityof suitable habitat, especially in terms of preferred depths.Shallow-waterflatfishspeciesmaybeparticularlyimpactedsince,ifforcednorthwardsbywarmingseas,suitablehabitatwillbegreatlyconstrained,leadingtoarequirementforrapidecologicalnicheshifts,orelsepopulationdeclines.Joneset al. (2015)usedsimilarmodelsandsuggested that the totalmaximumcatchpotentialisprojectedtodecreasewithintheUKExclusiveEconomicZone(EEZ)bythe2050s,resultingin a 10% decrease in net present value, assuming a ‘high’emissionSRESA2scenario.Fewstudieshaveattempted toextendbioclimaticprojectionstoassessthesocio-economicimpacts of climate-induced range shifts. This study linksspecies distribution modelling with cost-benefit analyses.Despitethevariationinpredictionsfromalternativemodelformulations, the direction of change in net present value(NPV) proved to be robust to model choice. This studyhighlights many of the key factors influencing futureprofitabilityofUKfisheriesandtheimportanceofenhancingadaptivecapacity(Joneset al.,2015).Fernandesetal(2017)employedsimilarmethodologies(seedescriptionbelow)andprojectedstandingstockbiomassdecreasesbetween10and60%.Theseimpactstranslateintoanoverallfishandshellfishcatchdecreaseofbetween10and30%by2020.2.2 Physiological impacts of warmingNephrops norvegicus(langoustine/scampi)remainsthemostimportantfisheryspeciesinNorthernIreland(6,900tonnesin2014,withavalueof£14.8million)andbyfarthemostimportantshellfishspeciesinScotland(20,200tonnes,£23.6million).Since2013,anumberofnewpapershaveemergedthatofferinsightsintoclimatechangeimpactsonthisspeciesin particular.Notably, several recent studies have reportedresults from laboratory experiments. Wood et al. (2015)investigated the effect of hypercapnia (low oxygen) andsalinitystressontheearlylifestagesoftheNephrops.Thisstudydemonstratedthatenvironmentalstressorshavethepotentialtohave a large effect on future recruitment. Similarly, Styfet al.(2013)studiedtheembryonicresponseofNephropstolong-termexposuretooceanacidification(loweredpH)andelevatedtemperature.BerriedfemaleNephropswereexposedtothecombinationofsixecologicallyrelevanttemperatures(5–18°C)andreducedpH(by0.4units).Embryonicresponseswere investigated by quantifying proxies for developmentrate and fitness including: % yolk consumption, meanheartrate,rateofoxygenconsumptionandoxidativestress.Increased temperature had positive effects on embryonicdevelopment,butnoimpactofloweredpHwasdetectedformost embryonic development parameters (except the levelof oxidative stress).The insensitivity ofNephrops embryosto low pH might be explained by adaptation to a pH-reducedexternalhabitatand/orinternalhypercapniaduringincubation.Theseresultsthusindicatethatthisspeciescouldbenefit fromglobalwarming and be able towithstand thepredicteddecreaseinoceanpHinthenextcenturyduringtheirearliestlifestages(seesimilarresultsforothershellfish,below).O’Sullivan et al. (2015) provided a novel modelling studyofNephropsmetapopulationconnectivity inwaters aroundIreland (including Northern Ireland) taking into accountseawatertemperatures.Theauthorsemployedhydrodynamicandlarvaltransportmodelstodescribespatialandtemporalchanges inoceanographicconditions,and toquantitativelypredict the degree of connectivity between populations.Following spawning, Nephrops larvae are hatched into the

water column, and the pre-zoea migrate vertically to thewarmer surface layer, passing through three temperature-dependentstagesofdevelopment.Temperatureisparticularlyimportantindeterminingdurationsofeachlarvalstage.Thisstudy found that increasing seawater temperature throughMay and June in the Irish Sea encouraged rapid larvaldevelopment, resulting in increased larval viability andincreased settlementas the seasonprogressed. Inaddition,gyres are considered the classical retention mechanismfor Nephrops larvae. Gyre speed and strength is primarilyinfluencedbywatertemperatureandseasonalstratificationpatterns. Neumann et al. (2013) use bioclimate envelopemodellingtechniquestopredicthabitatsuitabilityforadultNephrops in the North Sea.These authors did not projecthabitatsuitabilitysurfacesintothefutureassumingclimatechange,althoughthisshouldbestraightforward,giventhatsimilar techniques have been applied to other commercialfishandinvertebrates(Defra,2013).Boththeoryandempiricalobservationssuggestthatwarmingand reduced oxygen will together act to reduce body sizeof marine fishes, as well as constraining distributionalresponses to climate change. Emphasis on physiology (atopic thathad largelybeenoutof fashion since the1980s)has been increasing in recent years – mainly because ofhighly-citedstudiessuchasPörtnerandFarrell(2008)andthe perceived need to improve the reliability ofmodellingframeworks, thereby enhancing the quality of modelprojections (see Koenigstein et al., 2016). This representsan important advancement; - understanding mechanismsand not merely correlating observed distribution patternswith habitat features (or winter NAO etc.). Cheung etal. (2012) developed a model to examine the integratedbiological responses of over 600 species of marine fishesdue to changes in distribution, abundance and body size.Themodelhas an explicit representationof ecophysiology,dispersal, distribution and population dynamics. Theauthors showed that assemblage-averagedmaximum bodyweightisexpectedtoshrinkby14–24%globallyfrom2000to2050underahigh-emissionscenario.Abouthalfof thisshrinkage is due to change indistribution and abundance,the remainder to changes in physiology. This conclusion,whichgarneredglobalpresscoverageuponpublication,hasbeenchallengedonthegroundsthatboththescaleandthespeedof thechangearenotcredible(Branderet al.,2013).Criticismoftheprojectionmodelwassubsequentlyrefutedbytheauthors(Cheunget al.,2013),but ithashighlightedthe need for ‘ensembles’ of different biological models, oratleastmorethanonetool–tocreateincreasedconfidencein projections. Koenigstein et al. (2016) provide a usefulreview of available modelling approaches for marine fish,analyzing their capacities for process-based integration ofenvironmentaldrivers.For the area around theBritish Isles inparticular,Cheunget al. (2012) suggested a decline in mean assemblagemaximumbodyweight (g) of around 20%. Baudron et al. (2014) have subsequently examined observational dataand show that over a 40-year period (1970–2008) six ofeight commercial fish species in the North Sea exhibitedconcomitant reductions in asymptotic body size, with thesynchronous component of the total variability coincidingwith a 1–2°C increase inwater temperature. Smaller bodysizeshavedecreasedtheyield-per-recruitofthesestocksbyanaverageof23%.Althoughitisnotpossibletoascribethesephenotypic changes unequivocally to rising temperature,fouraspectssupportthisinterpretation:(i)thesynchronoustrendwasdetectedacrossspeciesvaryingintheirlifehistoryand lifestyle; (ii) thedecreasecoincidedwith theperiodofincreasingtemperature;(iii)thedirectionofthephenotypicchangeisconsistentwithphysiologicalpredictions;and(iv)no cross-species synchrony was detected in other species-

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specificfactorspotentiallyimpactinggrowth.Thesefindingssupport the contentions of Cheung et al. (2012) that fishsizewill shrink in response to climate-induced changes intemperatureandoxygen.2.3 Effects on recruitmentAconsistentfeatureofMCCIPreportsoverthepast10yearshas been a focus on climatic impacts on recruitment (i.e.thenumberofjuvenilefishreachinganageorsizewherebytheycanbecaughtorcountedinnets).Since2013,anumberofnewpublicationshaveappeared thatprovide insightsofrelevancetoUKcommercialspecies.Ottersenet al. (2013)examinedtheeffectsofvariationinspawningstockandseatemperatureonlong-termtemporalpatternsinrecruitmentdynamics of 38 commercially harvested fish stocks in thenorthernNorthAtlantic.Forhalfofthestocksstudied,thetemperatureeffectwasstatisticallysignificantwhenaddedtothemodel of the relationshipbetween recruitment successand spawning stock biomass. This included all six of theherringstocksstudied,withapositiveeffect forcold-waterstocksandnegativeeffect forstocks inthemoretemperatesouthern areas (including the west of Scotland andNorthSea). For the various plaice stocks, a tendencywas foundtoward recruitment being favouredby lower temperatures.ThisisconsistentwithwhathasearlierbeendocumentedbyFoxet al.(2000),whofurtherpointedtotemperatureduringthefirstmonthsof theyearbeingofparticular importancebyaffectingpredationpressureon theplanktonic stagesofplaiceandsubsequentlytheirrecruitment.Pécuchetet al. (2015) investigated thepotential impactsofvariousabioticandbioticfactorsontherecruitmentstrengthand variability of North and Baltic Sea stocks. Stock-recruitmentmodelswerefitted for thedifferentfish stocksusing recruitment (R) and spawning-stock biomass (SSB)fromICESstockassessmentworkinggroups.Thepercentageof survival explained by different environmental variables(e.g. temperature, salinity, nutrients, currents), variedbetween9.5% forwesternBaltic Sea sole (Solea solea) and89.1%forNorthSeawhiting(Merlangius merlangus).For15ofthe18stocksstudied,>50%ofthedeviancewasexplainedbyenvironmentalvariables.Themost frequentexplanatoryvariableswerecurrentspeed(whichwaspresentinthefinalmodelfor13of18stocks),fishstockbiomass(10of18)andsalinity(9of18).ThesalinityvariablewaspresentineightofthetenKattegat–BalticSeastocks,exceptthespratandsole,butwascompletelyabsentinthefinalmodelforeveryNorthSeastockexceptsprat.ForNorthSeacodandsole(butnotplaice,whiting,haddockandsaithePollachius virens),watertemperaturewasanimportantinfluence.Beggset al.(2014)examinedlinksbetweenclimateandIrishSeacodrecruitmentduringaperiodofdecliningspawningstockbiomass(SSB).Specifically,theauthorstestedforashiftintherelationshipbetweenrecruitment,SSBandclimatebycomparinganadditive (generalizedadditivemodel,GAM)andnon-additivethresholdmodel(TGAM).Therelationshipbetween recruitment success, SSB and the climatic driverseasurfacetemperature,wasbestdescribedbytheTGAM,withathresholdidentifiedbetweenrecruitmentandSSBatapproximately7,900t.TheanalysissuggestsathresholdshiftintherelationshipbetweenrecruitmentandSSBinIrishSeacod,withcodrecruitmentbeingmoresensitive toclimaticvariability during the recent low SSB regime. Ottersen et al. (2013) found that threshold models performed betterthan the best linear or nonlinear stationarymodels for 27ofthestockstheyexamined,suggestingthatabruptchanges(potentiallyevenregimeshifts)maybecommonplace.TheNorthSeacodstockdeclinedoverthepastfourdecades,linked with previous overfishing and climate change.Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made

the stock largely dependent on its recruitment successwhich, in turn, greatly relies on environmental conditions.Nicolaset al. (2014)testedwhetherobservedchangesinthedistributionofrecruitsintheNorthSeacouldberelatedtodirect(i.e.temperature)and/orindirect(i.e.changesinthequantityandqualityofzooplanktonprey)effectsofclimatevariability.Theanalyseswerebasedonspatiallyresolvedtimeseries: i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) and zooplanktonrecords from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey.TheauthorsshowedthatspringSSTincreasewasthemaindriver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment,althoughthelate1990swerealsocharacterizedbyrelativelylow total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-richzooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus,whichhavefurthercontributedtothedeclineinrecruitmentofNorth Sea cod.All of these studies suggest ‘bottom-up’impacts on cod recruitment, however, top-downprocessessuch as predation are poorly studied. A recent study byAkimovaet al. (2016)showedhowchangesintemperatureinfluence cumulative mortality of cod through the earlyjuvenile period, and several authors have suggested thattheproliferationofcertainpredators,sometimesasaresultof climatic influences, may have influenced the apparentslownessofrecoveryinthecodstockoftheNorthSea(e.g.Kempfet al., 2013).2.4 Ocean Acidification (OA)Overthepastfewyearsmanyhundredsofpapershavebeenpublished focussing on the impacts of ocean acidification(Browman,2016).However,thereisstillalackofconclusiveevidence as to what the possible consequences for fishand shellfish might be and, consequently, the impactson commercial fisheries are largely unknown. Opinionsvoicedintheliteraturerangefromcompletecatastropheforglobalfisheries(e.g.ColtandKnapp,2016)toverymodestimpacts.SeveralmodellingpapershaveemergedasaresultoftherecentlycompletedUKOceanAcidificationResearchProgramme(jointlyfundedbyNERC,DefraandDECC)andtheparallelGermanBIOACIDprogramme.In a UK study by Fernandes et al. (2017), availableobservational,experimental,andmodellingapproacheswerecombinedtoquantifypotentialimpactsofoceanacidificationandwarmingonfuturefisheriescatches,aswellasrevenuesandemploymentintheUKfishingindustryunderdifferentCO2emissionscenarios.Acrossallscenarios,basedonsparsebutcurrentlyavailableexperimentalresults,bivalvespeciesweresuggestedtobemoreaffectedbyoceanacidificationandwarmingthanthefishspecies,whencomparedtoimpactsofocean warming alone. Projected standing stock biomassesdecreasedbetween10and60%,dependingontheparticularassumptions. These impacts translate into an overall fishandshellfishcatchdecreaseofbetween10and30%by2020acrossallareasexceptScotlandfor>10mfishingfleet.Onlythis Scottish fleet showed average positive impacts, butthosewerelostafter2050.Themaindriveroftheprojecteddecreasesissuggestedtobeincreasesintemperature(+0.5–3.3°C),whichexacerbatetheimpactofdecreasesinprimaryproduction (10–30%) in UK fishing waters.The inclusionof theeffectofoceanacidificationonthecarbonuptakeofprimaryproducers(phytoplankton)hadverylittleimpactontheprojectionsofpotentialfishandshellfishcatches(<1%).Thevalidityofassumptionswithregardtooceanacidificationin this studybyFernandes et al. (2017) canbe consideredsomewhat‘heroic’andincluded:slightchangesinbodymass(size)andadultnaturalmortalityforcod;changesinlarvalnaturalmortality for seabass; changes in growth rate, size,mobilityandnaturalmortalityforscallopsandcockles;andchangesinadultmortalityformussels(Fernandesetal.,2017;largelybasedonoutputsofrecentmeta-analyses,e.g.Kroekeret al., 2013). However, many experimentalists working on



exactlythesamespecies(e.g.scallops)inthelaboratoryhavefoundnoeffect(seebelow),andlimitedsensitivitytochangesinpH,henceweneedtobecautiousinourinterpretationofthemodelresults.Overall,Fernandesetal.(2017)suggestedthatlossesinrevenuewereestimatedtorangebetween1–21%in theshort term(2020–2050),withEnglandandScotlandbeingthemostnegativelyimpactedregioninabsolutetermsandWalesandNorthIrelandinrelativeterms.Lossesintotalemployment(fisheriesandassociatedindustries)mayreachapproximately3–20%during2020–2050withthe>10mfleetandassociatedindustriesbearingthemajorityofthelosses.NaritaandRehdanz(2017)attemptedtoperformanationalandsub-nationalassessmentoftheeconomicimpactofOAonmollusc production in Europe.These authors focus onmollusc production because the scientific evidence on thebiological impact on calcifying organisms was consideredample relative to other types of marine organisms. Inaddition, Europe and its regions are significant producersof marine molluscs. This work complements earlier andongoing UK-specific work reported in the UK ClimateChangeRiskAssessment(CCRA)byPinnegaret al. (2012).Highestlevelsofoverallimpactwerefoundinthecountrieswiththelargestcurrentshellfishproduction,suchasFrance,Italy and Spain. Narita and Rehdanz (2017) examinedimpactsintheUnitedKingdom,theChannelIslandsandtheIsleofMan.Theauthorsassumedtwoscenariosofbiologicalsensitivity based onKroeker et al. (2013), i.e. the value ofcalcificationloss(40%,thelargesteffectsize)andthevalueofgrowthloss(17%;thesmallesteffectsize).Thisislikelytobeanoversimplification,butscientificinformationislackingregarding the different levels of impact appropriate acrossdifferent species of commercial importance (Hilmi e t a l.,2014).Narita and Rehdanz (2017) suggest that annual economiclossesintheUnitedKingdom,theChannelIslandsandtheIsleofManby2100couldamounttoUS$97.1million,US$1millionandUS$12.7millionrespectivelyunderaworst-case scenario, mostly due to impacts on scallopfisheries.Theauthorsalsoprovidedannualeconomiclossesfor sub-national regions in Europe as a result of damage tomussel and oyster culture specifically. This highlightedthatWales andNorthern Ireland are themost susceptibleof the UK regions to damage to mussel culture, whereassouthwestEnglandismostsusceptibleintermsoflostoysterproduction,althoughnowherenearasvulnerableasregionsinFrance.Sanderset al. (2013)examined the impactofelevatedCO2concentrations(reducedpH)onoxygenconsumption,foodclearanceratesandcellularturnoverinjuvenilekingscallopPecten maximus. This species supports very importantfisheriesinWalesandintheIsleofMan(whereitisthemostimportant resource, accounting for 2,345 tonnes and £4.5millionin2015).Noneoftheexperimentalexposure levels(290,380,750and1140μatm)werefoundtohavesignificanteffectsonscallopgrowthormetabolism,following3monthslaboratoryexposure.Whileitisclearthatsomelifestagesofmarinebivalvesappearsusceptibletofuturelevelsofoceanacidification, particularly under food limiting conditions,the results from this study suggested thatwhere food is inabundance, juvenile P. maximus may display tolerance.Similarly, Mackenzie et al. (2014) examined the effects ofnear-future pH (ambient pH -0.4 pH units) andwarming(ambient temperature +4°C) on the shells of the musselMytilus edulisintheUK.Aftersixmonthsexposure,warming,butnotacidification,significantlyreducedshellstrength.Themaintenanceofshellstrengthdespiteseawateracidificationsuggests thatbiomineralisationprocesses areunaffectedbythe associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. Theseauthors concluded that under near-future climate change

conditions,oceanwarmingwillposeagreater risk to shellintegrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification, even whenfoodavailabilityislimited.Recent experiments on larvae and juveniles of Europeanlobster Homarus gammarus (Agnalt et al., 2013; Smallet al., 2015) showedno clear effects of pCO2treatment oneither carapace lengthor dryweight, althoughdeformitieswere more commonly observed.The proportion of larvaewithdeformities increasedwith increasingpCO2exposure,independentoftemperature.Inthemediumtreatmentabout23%were deformed, and in the highCO2treatment about43%weredeformed(Agnaltet al.,2013).Smallet al.(2015)showednosignificanteffectofelevatedpCO2oncumulativesurvival, although survival of larvae from stage I to stageII significantlydecreasedathigher temperatures. Similarly,therewerenosignificanteffectsofpCO2, in isolationor inconsort with temperature, on growth andmorphometrics.Therewere,again,nosignificanteffectsofelevatedpCO2ontheratesofoxygenconsumptionatlarvalstagesI,IIandIII.AtlarvalstageIVhowever,theratesofoxygenconsumptionwere significantly higher at 1,100 μatm pCO2 than at 420μatm pCO2, but the significance of this observation ispoorlyunderstood.Carapacemagnesiumcontentincreasedsignificantlyastemperatureincreasedunder420μatmpCO2but not under 1,100 μatm pCO2. Decreases in carapacemineralizationhavepreviouslybeendemonstratedforlarvalstageIVlobsters(Arnoldet al.,2009).2.5 StorminessAt present, confidence in the wind and storm projectionsfrom Global Climate Models (GCMs) and down-scaledRegionalClimateModels(RCMs)isrelativelylow,withsomemodels suggesting that northwest Europe will experiencefewerstormsinthefuturewhereasothermodelssuggestanincreaseinstorminess.Thewinterof2013/14wasidentifiedas one of the stormiest (in terms of wind speeds, waveheights, etc.) of the past 66 years (Matthews et al., 2014).The UK fishing industry was severely disrupted duringthis period, withmany vessels tied up in port for at leastfivemonths,alongwithseveredamagetofishingboatsandharbourfacilities(Andrew,2014).ThelackoffishreachingmarketsresultedinsignificantlyhigherpricesnationallyandinApril 2014 theMMO launched a “StormDamageGearReplacementScheme”supportedbytheEuropeanFisheriesFund(EFF).Climate change, through its influenceon stormconditionscan impact the performance of fishing vessels or gears,the behaviour of the fish themselves, aswell as safety andstability of vessels at sea. However very little research hasbeencarriedoutonthistopic,andsowehavelowconfidenceinprojectionsaboutthefuture.Morelet al. (2008)examinedthedecision-makingprocessofcommercialfishingskippersoperating in the Celtic Sea (off southwest Ireland), byinterviewing 34 fishermen and examining trade-offsbetweensafetyandproductiongoals.Theresultssuggestedthat the information skippers receive from the shore (e.g.weatherforecasts,marketpriceoffish)arevitallyimportantdeterminantsoftheirdecisionsaboutwhetherornottogofishing.Contrarytotheresultsexpected,fishingskippersdidnotchoosetostopfishingduringpoorweatherbut,rather,adopted a strategy aimed at maximising performance. Ofthe 34 skippers, 25 chose to leave a fishing zone becausetheyhopedtoincreasetheircatchelsewhere,and8decidedto seek shelter,not somuchbecauseof roughweatherbutbecauseoftheexpectationoflowercatches.A study of perceived risks in theNorthern Ireland fishingindustry (Booth and Nelson, 2014) examined views andthe decision-making process of 40 active fishermen basedatPortavogieharbour.Respondentswereaskedtorankand

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score 12 risk items. Those items listed as causing greatestconcerntofishermen’slivelihoodsincludedfuelcosts,quotarestrictions and drowning, whereas more remote issuessuch as global warming had considerably less resonance.Some of the risk factors that scored highly (e.g. ‘drowning’or ‘cold/hypothermia’) were undoubtedly linked to weatherconditions and hence climate, but were not articulated assuch.Notably,aDecember2015reportwrittenbySeafish(Garrettet al.,2015)includedanumberof ‘Industryperspectivesonclimatechange’.Thesehighlightedthat:“taking action to adapt to [long term] climate change is not presently a priority for the majority of industry contributors. Industry [instead], highlight the effect of near term events – severe storms affecting ports in Fraserburgh and Peterhead and in the South West, stormy conditions affecting crew safety, flooding of processing units, changing distribution of species for example — particularly in the domestic context”.3. HOW OUR UNDERSTANDING HAS DEVELOPEDOVER THE PAST DECADE?3.1 Where have early concepts/predictions been borne out?Ever since the first MCCIP report card was published in2006,EuropeanseabassDicentrarchus labraxhavebeenheldupasa ‘poster child’ofmarineclimatechange in theUK–with an expectation that populations would increasedramatically in the future and that distributions of thiswarm-water fish species would continue to expandnorthwards. Evidencesuggests that populations, especiallyin the Channel, did expand dramatically in the earlyyears (Pawson et al.,2007),andthatseabasswere indeedexpanding northwards. Commercial catches increaseddramatically during this period and recruitment wasconsistently high (figure 1). However, in recent years,fishing mortality has reached unsustainable levels(fisheries expanded at too fast a rate), such thatrecruitmentsuccesshasapparentlybeendamaged

(not enough spawning adults tomaintain the population);alsoafewcoolerwinters(in2009/10and2010/11)seemtohavehaltedtheexpansion,andstockshavebeguntodecline(Narita and Rehdanz, 2017). Seabass are not subject to EUTACs and quotas, therefore, fisheries were largelyallowed to expand withimpunity. Consequently, in 2016very draconian measures were introduced in order tocontrol fishing effort, even impacting on recreationalfisheries. These measures include: (1) complete closurethroughout 2016 to all commercial seabassfishingwestofIreland; (2) from 1 January to 30 June, a six-monthsprohibitiononcommercialfishingforseabass intheNorthSea, Irish Sea, EnglishChannel, andCeltic Sea;(3) from 1July to 31 December 2016 monthly catch limits to allcommercial vessels; (4) from 1 January to 30 June 2016recreational catch and release only; (5) from 1 July to 31December 2016 one seabass per recreational fisherman per day. Seabass have undoubtedly been observed further north than was previously the case, although, because of overfishing,notinthenumbersoriginallyanticipated.Similarly, a recurrent theme in the ‘fish’ and ‘fishery’supporting documents forMCCIP over the past ten yearshas been expanding populations of European anchovyEngraulis encrasicholus in the North Sea and EnglishChannel and associated concerns about quota allocationamong countries and access to these burgeoning fisheryresources. Beare et al. (2004) were among the first todocument the expansion of anchovy, showing that thisspecieswasalmosttotallyabsentfrom the North Sea untilthe mid 1990s, although smallnumbers had occasionallyand sporadically been caught, e.g. in the mid 1970s (arelatively warm period). Numbers increased dramaticallyafter 2000 and the species was widely distributed (overalmost 80% of the International Bottom Trawl Surveyarea), except in the most northern and western regions.Future projections such as those of Defra (2013)anticipated that anchovy would continue to expand northwardby~320kmoverthenext50years,andthatthe

Beam trawler in rough weather (photo credit Alan Searle)



UK Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) would become significantly more ‘suitable’ as a result of climate change in the future. In2013,Petigaset al.concludedthatanchovyinthe southern North Sea (including the Thames estuary)aremostlikelyadistinctremnantsub-stockthathasalwaysbeen present, but are now benefiting from greatlyimproved environmental conditions rather than aninvasion of animals from further west (i.e. the Bay ofBiscay). This is important politically as according to therules of ‘relative stability’ within the EU CommonFisheries Policy (CFP), Spanish and French vessels wouldnotbegrantedexclusiveaccesstothisresource,unlikeasispresently the case in theBay of Biscay. Since 2012 fisherylandings from the Channel and North Sea regionshave remained relatively low,but alsohighlyvariablewithmostly British and French vessels taking ~760 tonnes ofanchovy in 2014, following several successive years withlowercatches.Raabet al.(2013)usedmodelsandempiricaldata to explore the effects of temperature and foodavailability on the adult anchovy population across theNorth Sea. Temperature explained the distribution andabundance of anchovy in theNorth Sea better than foodavailability or a combination of both environmentalfactors.Changesinfishdistributionpatterns(includingseabassandanchovy) have featured in all of the MCCIP reportcards,and the evidence base of observations and modeloutputs has grown steadily throughout the 10 years thatMCCIPhasbeen in existence. In 2006, the original ‘fishand fisheries’ supporting document (Pinnegar, 2006)made reference tothe now highly-cited paper published

in Science by Perry et al. (2005). This studydemonstrated that distributions of both exploited andnon-exploited North Sea fishes had responded markedlytorecent increases in temperature,withnearlytwo-thirdsof species shifting in mean latitude over 25 years.Following publication of this ground-breaking work byPerry et al. (now cited >1,600 times) many additionalstudieshavebeenpublishedthathaveconfirmedshifts indistribution around the United Kingdom. These haveincluded observational studies that have made use ofscientificsurveydatasets(e.g.Dulvyet al.,2008;HiddinkandterHofstede,2008;Lynamet al.,2010;Simpsonet al.,2011; Montero-Serra et al., 2015), but also studies thathave examined data from commercial fisheries anddemonstrated shifts in catch-per-unit-effort (e.g. Heath2007; Engelhard et al., 2011, 2014). Many of the studiespublishedsince2006havedemonstratedthatthesituationis not simply a case of species shifting distributions‘northwards’(Pinkskyet al.,2013),butthatthereisalsoastronginteractionwithpatternsoffishingpressureaswellasdepth.Inananalysisof50abundantdemersalspeciesinthe waters around UK and Ireland, 70% were shown tohave responded to warming in the region by changingdistribution and abundance (Simpson et al., 2011).Specifically, warm-water species with smaller maximumbody size have increased in abundancewhile cold-water,large-bodied species have decreased in abundance. Forpelagicfishspecies,arecentpaperbyMontero-Serraet al.(2015)investigatedpatternsofchangeusingrecordsfrom57,870fisheries-independentsurveytrawlsacrossthe

Figure 1: Seabass in in the southern North Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Celtic Sea. Summary of stock assessment (weights in thousand tonnes). Landings are from the commercial fishery only. Fishing mortality is shown for the combined com-mercial and recreational fisheries (ICES 2015a).

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European continental shelf between 1965 and 2012.Theseauthorsnotedastrong‘subtropicalization’oftheNorthandBaltic Seas.These areashave shiftedaway fromcold-waterassemblagestypicallycharacterizedbyAtlanticherringandspratfromthe1960sto1980s,towarmer-waterassemblagestypified by mackerel, horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus,sardine Sardina pilchardus and anchovy from the 1990sonwards.Theprimarydriverofchangeinthesespecieshasbeenseasurfacetemperaturesinallcases(Montero-Serraet al.,2015).Perry et al. (2005) noted that certain warm-water speciesseemtohaveshiftedtheirdistributionsouthwardsoverthepastfewdecades(i.e.intheoppositedirectiontowhatmightgenerallybeexpectedinthenorthernhemisphere).ThiswasconfirmedbyEngelhardet al. (2011) for sole in theNorthSea and also for scaldfish Arnoglossus laterna, solenette Buglossidium luteum and bib Trisopterus luscus (Dulvy et al., 2008).Coldwinters are known tohave coincidedwithmassdie-offsofsoleinthepast,withthisspeciesmigratingoffshoreeachwintertothecentralNorthSeainordertoavoidexcessively cold conditionsnear the coast (e.g.Woodhead,1964). In recent years shallower waters surrounding theNorth Sea have remained habitable all year round (winterconditionsarelesssevere),andhencetheapparentsouthwardand shallowing shift of somewarm-water commercial fish(Engelhardet al.,2011).Dulvyet al.(2008)reflectedontheearlierfindingsofPerryet al. (2005) and explored the year-by-year distributionalresponse of the North Sea demersal fish assemblage inresponse to climate change.These authors found that thewholeNorthSeafishassemblagehaddeepenedby~3.6mperdecadesince1981andthatthedeepeningresponsewasfarmoresignificantincomparisonwiththelatitudinalresponsethathadpreviously been reportedbasedon the samedata(Perryet al., 2005).A recentpaperbyFreitaset al. (2015)combining4yearsoftelemetry-derivedbehaviouraldataonjuvenileandadult(30–80cm)Atlanticcod(Gadus morhua),and in situ ocean temperature measurements, found asignificant effect of sea temperature on coddepthuse andactivity level inthecoastalSkagerrak.Duringsummerandinperiodswhenseasurfacetemperatureincreased,codwerefoundindeeperwaters.Theauthorsofthisstudyreasonedthat future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperaturemay increasingly drive cod away from shallow feedingareas during summer, whichmay be detrimental for localpopulationsofthespecies.For many years it has been argued (including in variousMCCIPreports)thatcooler-waterspeciessuchascod,mightnotbeabletopersistaroundtheUKinthefuture,ifseawatertemperatures continue to rise. Indeed, Drinkwater (2005)predicted,onthebasisofcorrelationsbetweentemperatureandrecruitment,thatcodstocksintheCelticandIrishSeaare expected to disappear altogether by 2100, while thoseinthesouthernNorthSeawillprobablydecline.CookandHeath (2005) also examined the relationship between seasurfacetemperatureandrecruitmentinanumberofNorthSeafishspecies(cod,haddock,whiting,saithe,plaice,sole).Theseauthorsconcludedthat if therecentwarmingperiodweretocontinue,stocksthatexpressanegativerelationshipwith temperature (including cod) might be expected tosupportmuchsmallerfisheriesinthefuture.Inthecaseofcod,climatechangehasbeenestimatedtohavebeenerodingthemaximumsustainableyieldatarateof32,000tonnesperdecadesince1980.CalculationsbyCookandHeath(2005)suggest that theNorth Sea cod stock could still support asustainablefisheryunderawarmerclimate,butonlyatverymuchlowerlevelsoffishingmortality.According to the most recent stock assessments for codaroundtheUK(ICES,2015a),stockswereheavilyoverfished

intheearly-mid2000sandpopulationswereattheirlowestever recorded value (e.g. figure 2). However, sincethis period, fishing mortality has been significantlyreduced through vessel decommissioning schemes andstatutoryeffort controls. Spawning stock biomass in theNorth Sea has marginally recovered to a level above itsprecautionaryreference limit (figure 3), but this recoveryhas been veryslow. In the Irish and Celtic Seas, as wellas the west ofScotland, cod stocks are still at low levels.Despite the very dramatic and deliberate reduction infishingmortality, codstockshavenotyetattainedthelevelsrecorded in the 1970s, and this is largely a reflection ofcontinuedpoorrecruitmentinallUKcodstocks,probablyrelated to prevailing climatic conditions since themid-1990s(e.g.figure3,butalsosimilarresultsforthewestofScotland,IrishSea,ChannelandCelticSeacodstocks).Itisinterestingtonotethateventsofthepast10years(sincepublication of the first MCCIP report card) have largelyfollowedthetrajectoriespredictedbyKellet al. (2005),whomodelledtheeffectofintroducinga ‘codrecoveryplan’(asbeing implemented by the European Commission), underwhich catches were set each year so that stock biomassincreasedby30%annuallyuntilthecodstockhadrecoveredto around 150,000 tonnes. In these simulations the lengthoftimeneededforthecodstocktorecoverwasnotgreatlyaffectedbytheparticularclimatescenariochosen(generallyaroundfivetosixyears),however,overallproductivitywasimpactedandspawningstockbiomass(SSB)once‘recovered’wasprojected tobe considerably less given climate changethan would have been the case assuming no temperatureincrease.Another common theme that has been covered repeatedlyinMCCIP‘fisheries’reportsoverthepast10yearshasbeen‘phenology’ (i.e. changes in the timing of natural events),suchasfishspawningdates,migration patterns, emergenceoflarvae,etc.By2006,manypapershadbeenwrittenaboutchangesinthenorthAtlanticzooplanktoncommunityandpossible consequences for commercial fish species (e.g.Beaugrandet al.,2002,2003).Year-classsizeofmarinefishis greatly influenced by the timing of spawning and theresulting match-mismatch with their prey and predators(Cushing,1990).However,sincethefirstMCCIP‘fisheries’report(Pinnegar,2006),manynewpapershaveemergedthatprovidemoredetailonthisphenomenon,includingchangesoverthepastdecade.Fincham et al. (2013) examined the date of peak spawn-ingforsevensolestocksbasedonmarketsamplingdatainEngland and the Netherlands. Four of seven stocks wereshown to have exhibited a significant long-term trend to-wards earlier spawning (including the east-central NorthSea, southernNorth Sea and Eastern English Channel) atarateof1.5weeksperdecadesince1970.Aclearseasonalshift toearlierappearanceoffishlarvaehasbeendescribedforsouthernNorthSeacodandmanyotherspecies(Greveet al., 2005). In theEnglishChannel, earlier spawning fol-lowingwarmertemperatureshasbeenobservedinsummer(JulytoSeptember)spawningspecies,forexamplemackerelandhorsemackerel(Genner et al.,2010).Incontrast,speciesthatspawninspringtendtospawnlaterfollowingwarmerwinters, including lemonsoleMicrostomus kittandpollackPollachius pollachius(Genneret al.,2010).Thepast10yearshavewitnessedunprecedentedwarmthoftheseasaroundtheBritishIsles(ICESIROC,2014),butalsoanumberofnoteworthydiscreteeventsthathaveimpactedon commercial fish stocks. Despite the general trend ofincreasingmeanseawatertemperatures,severalwinterswererelativelycoolandarethoughttohavebenefittedrecruitmentin certain cold-water species, notably in 2009/10, 2010/11and 2011/12. However, 2014 witnessed a resumption of



recordhighairtemperaturesthroughouttheeasternNorthAtlantic and this was reflected in record high sea surfacetemperatures in theNorth Sea. In 2015, theUKmean airtemperature was 9.2°C; 0.4°C above the 1981–2010 long-termaverage.NewUKairtemperaturerecordsof36.7°Cand22.4°Cwereseton1Julyand1November2015,respectively.WhileNovemberwasverymild,DecemberwasthemildestDecemberinEnglandsince1659.Verylowrecruitmentwasobservedin2014and2015forNorthSeacod,haddockandautumn-spawningherring.Thewinterof2013/14wasidentifiedasoneofthestormiestofthepast66years(Matthewsetal.,2014;Masselinketal.,2016) andduring this period theUKfishing industrywasseverelydisrupted.ForEnglandandWales,thiswasalsooneofthemostexceptionalperiodsofwinterrainfallinatleast248years.Asyet,thereisnodefinitiveconclusionastothepossiblecontributionofclimatechangetotherecentweatherevents;thisisinpartduetothehighlyvariablenatureofUKweatherandclimate.3.2 Variability in the context of longer term ‘climatic’ timeframesCorrelationshavebeen identifiedbetweenfishrecruitmentandmanydifferent climatevariables, including sea surfacetemperature(SST),winterNorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)andtheAtlanticMulti-decadalOscillationAMO.Thepoorlong-termpredictabilityof these latter twoclimatic indiceshas greatly hampered efforts to accurately project climateimpacts on commercial fish stocks, both in the near-termandover thenext50–100years.AnumberofpublicationsdescribingtheimpactofclimatevariabilityonsmallpelagicfishsuchasAtlanticherring,anchovyorsardineintheNorthSeahavebeenpublished(e.g.Grögeret al.,2010;Alheitet al.,1997;Pitoiset al.,2012;2015).Pitoiset al.(2015)detectedaweakpositivecorrelationbetweenmackerellarvaeabundancein theNorth Sea and thewinterNAO.Other authors (seeabove) have linked the recent expansion of mackerelpopulationswestwardstowardsIcelandandtheFaroeIslandswithpositivephasesofboththeNAOandAMO.GoikoetxeaandIrigoien(2013)suggestedalinkbetweenEuropeanhake

Merluccius merluccius recruitment and theAMO,wherebyhigher productivity in the hake stock in recent yearsmayhave been sustained (despite intense fishing pressure) duetohighly conducive climatic conditions, includingwarmertemperatures.is most difficult to provide accurate future projections(IPCC,2013).Recentmulti-modelstudies(e.g.Karpechko,2010)suggestoverallthattheNAOislikelytotendtowardsslightlypositive(onaverage) in the futuredueto increasesingreenhousegasemissions.Consequently,wemightexpectaslight tendencytowardsenhancedrecruitmentand larvalabundance of species such asmackerel, herring, hake andanchovyinthefutureiftherelationshipsobservedinthepastcontinuetohold.Major advances over the last decade in oceanographicobservationandmodelingsystemshaveledtounprecedenteddevelopments in the quality of information available tomarine science. While improvements in observationaltechnologies and networks have garneredmuch attention,remarkable developments in forecasting the ocean havereceivedmuch less focus.The potential for predicting theoceanclimatefarexceedsthatoftheatmosphere.Theslow-dynamics (and therefore “long-memory”) of the oceanmean that anomalies canpersist formonthsor longer andmaysometimesbeusedas thebasis forsimple forecastsofpotentialrelevancetofisherymanagement.Studiesusingbothcoupledatmosphere–oceanmodels andempirical statisticalmodelshavebeguntodemonstrate thepotential for climate predictions on decadal time scales,particularly in the North Atlantic region. Progress canbe seen in the retrospective multiyear forecasts of NorthAtlantic Ocean characteristics by Hazeleger et al. (2013),which skilfully predict variability associated with theAtlanticMultidecadalOscillation2–9yearsahead.Themovefromassessingthepotentialfordecadalscalepredictionstomakingexperimentalforecastsisalsobecomingpossible.Forexample Smith et al. (2007, 2013) present the first climatepredictionofthecomingdecademadewithmultiplemodels.These authors suggest that the AMO will remain positive

Figure 2. Cod in the North Sea, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak. Summary of stock assessment with point-wise 95% confidence intervals (ICES, 2015b). Any observed changes over the past decade, including any extremes.

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fortherestofthisdecade.Mateiet al.(2012)alsoshowthatthe sea surface temperature (SST) variations of the NorthAtlantic andMediterranean Sea can be skilfully predicteduptoadecadeahead,andthattheNorthAtlanticsubpolargyre region stands out as the location with the highestpredictability.In September 2016, a special theme session at the ICESAnnual Science Conference focussed on “Seasonal-to-decadal prediction of marine ecosystems: opportunities,approaches,andapplications”,followingasimilarworkshopat Princeton University in June 2015 on “Applicationof Seasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions for MarineResourceManagement”.Itishopedthatwithinthenextfewyears,‘nearreal-time’forecasts(3–5yearleadintimes)willbecome available for climatic conditions around Europe,thus making it conceivable that these could be used byfisheryscientiststogenerateshort-termstockforecasts,andtosetappropriatemulti-yearmanagementgoals.ManyofthescientistsworkingonthistopicarepartoftheEUNACLIMproject (Hátún and Payne, 2014), and early outputs havetendedtofocusonpelagicfishessuchasbluewhiting,withstronglinkstotheNorthAtlanticsubpolargyre(e.g.Payneet al.,2012).3.3 What are future projections telling us now (vs. what we thought a decade ago)?Asstatedabove,manyoftheprojectionsmadeadecadeago(e.g. Cook andHeath, 2005; Drinkwater, 2005; Kell et al.,2005)havenowbeenvalidatedwithadditionalobservationalevidence,andtheoverallstoryofimpactsonfishrecruitmentor ondistribution remains largely the same.However, onetopic that received very scant attention in 2006 was thepotentialimpactsofoceanacidification(OA)oncommercialfisheries, as this pre-dated the expansion in scientificendeavour thatwas largelypromptedbypublicationof theRoyalSocietyreport“Oceanacidificationduetoincreasingatmosphericcarbondioxide”inJune2005.There is still considerable uncertainty with regard to OAimpactsonfishandshellfish(seeabove),howeveritisnowbecomingclearerastowhatmighthappenlocallyintermsofprojectedchangesinpHandcarbonatesaturation.IntheRegional Ocean Acidification Modelling (ROAM) projectoftherecentlycompletedUKOceanAcidificationResearchProgramme (UKOA), a coupledphysical-ecosystemmodelwas used to project future values for pH and aragonitesaturation state for the North Western European Shelf(see Ostle et al., 2016). The model was forced with datarepresentativeoftheIPCCAR5RCP8.5scenario,assimulatedbytheUKMOHADGEMmodel.ThemodelsuggestsacleardecreaseinbothpHandsaturationstatearoundtheUK,withareasalongthesouthcoastofNorwayshowingthestrongestdecreaseinthefuture.Surfacewaterswillgraduallystarttobecomeunder-saturatedfromaround2030andmorerapidlyfrom2080.By theendof thecentury, themodel estimatesthatanareaofsurfacewaterofapproximately300,000km2could become under-saturated, which could conceivablyhavemajorconsequencesforcommercialfishandshellfish.ThepHtrendsestimatedfromthismodelforOSPARregionsII(GreaterNorthSea)andIII(CelticSeas)are-0.0036and-0.0033pHunitsperyearrespectively(seeOstleet al.,2016).AnothermajoruncertaintywithregardtofutureprojectionsforUKfisheriesisthelackofclearconsensusastowhetherornotprimaryproduction(phytoplankton)willincreaseordecreaseinthewatersaroundtheBritishIsles.Netprimaryproductionisakeydriverofmanyecosystemmodels.Recentvariantsofthebioclimateenvelopeapproach(Cheungetal.,2011,2013)suggestareductioninmaximumfisheriescatchpotentialbyupto30%intheNorthSeaby2050,relativeto2000 under the SRES A2 emissions scenario. In contrast,

using a size-structured food web model Blanchard et al.(2012) predicted a 24% increase in potential catch for theUK, using the same underling climate scenario. Possiblereasons for the discrepancy could be different underlyingassumptionsaboutchanges innetprimaryproduction thatdrove the two contrasting biogeochemical models. ThemodelusedbyCheunget al.(2011)anticipatedadecreaseinnetprimaryproductionavailableforfishwhiletheoneusedbyBlanchardet al.(2012)projectedanincrease.Most recent studies (e.g. Jones et al., 2015; Fernandes et al.,2017)[seeabove]haveusedoutputs fromdown-scaledregional models that anticipate a decline in net primaryproduction. Consequently, these studies also suggest anoverall decline in the net present value of fisheries in theUK.Joneset al. (2015)inparticularusedoutputsfromtwodifferentEarthsystemmodels(GFDLESM2.1andMedusa),both of which suggested declines in primary productionfor the northeastAtlantic.Opposite trends, however,weresuggestedinastudybyvanLeeuwenet al.(2016)whoappliedacoupledmarinewatercolumnmodeltothreesites intheNorthSea.Themodelconsistedofahydro-biogeochemicalmodel(GOTM-ERSEM-BFM)coupledonewayupwardstoa size-structuredmodel representing pelagicpredatorsanddetritivores(Blanchardet al.,2009).Atallthreesites(NorthDogger, Oyster Grounds, Southern Bight), net primaryproduction was projected to increase under a scenario ofwarming seawater temperatures, due to faster recycling ofnutrientsandalengtheningofthegrowingseason.However,increased planktonic biomass actually led to a decrease inplanktonicfoodsupplyforfishastheincreaseswerelargelylimited to inedible functional groups (dinoflagellates andPhaeocystiscolonies).Diatoms,themostimportantfoodforzooplanktonandhenceforfish,wereprojectedtodecreaseatallthreesites,buttheriseinambientwatertemperaturesalsoincreasedgrowthratesathighertrophiclevels,resultingin higher biomass for both fish and detritivores despitethe minor decrease in planktonic food supply. Fish yieldsincreasedaccordingly.3.4 Any regional variations in impacts across the UK marine environment (coastal or marine)Itisanticipatedthatclimatechange(andoceanacidification)couldhaveverydifferentconsequencesfordifferentregionsornationsoftheUK.Someinsight intoregionalvariationshave been provided by Narita and Rehdanz (2017) andFernandeset al. (2017)[seeabove]andwill largelydependon the sensitivity of the primary target species in eachlocality.InEnglandthetopthreefisheryspecies,intermsofvalue,are scallops,edible/browncrabsCancer pagurus andlobsters, whereas the top three fishery species in Scotlandare mackerel, Nephrops and haddock. In Wales, the mostvaluable species are scallops, whelks and lobsters and inNorthern IrelandNephrops, scallops andmackerel providemost of the fisheries revenues (MMO, 2015). All of thesespeciesareknowntobesensitivetowarmingtemperaturesand/oroceanacidificationtosomeextent.IntheIsleofMan,themainfishery species in termsofvalueareking scallopPecten maximus,queenscallopAequipecten opercularis andlobsters (MMEA, 2013). In Guernsey, the most valuablespecies are edible/browncrab, lobster and rays/skatesRaja spp.(SFS,2013),andinJerseythemostimportantspeciesarelobster,edible/browncrabandscallops,althoughspidercrabarealsoimportant(StatesofJersey,2012).Weiss et al. (2009) suggest that the larvae of edible crabexhibitaparticularlynarrowrangeintolerabletemperaturesand thus predict that recruitment in this species may behighlyvulnerabletotheeffectsoffutureclimatechange.Bycontrast, spider crabs are thought to benefit fromwarmerseawater temperatures. Early hatching of the spider crabMaja brachydactyla on the French Coast adjacent to the



ChannelIslandshasbeenrelatedtohigherwinter-springseatemperature (Martin and Planque, 2006), and the optimaltemperature for spawning anddevelopment in this speciesseemstobearound10–13°C.4. KNOWLEDGE GAPS AND KEY CHALLENGESFor many years, MCCIP report cards have highlighted ashortage of detailed socio-economic work on UK fishingfleets, and this remains the case in 2016.There have beenmany recent reports and discussion papers that speculateaboutimpacts(e.g.Cheunget al.,2012;Defra,2012;Garrettet al., 2015), but very little quantitative analysis focussedonwhich specific ports and fleet segments could bemostimpacted. Such quantitative analyses have been carriedoutelsewhereintheworld,forexampleintheUSAandinAustralia,wherefishandshellfishspecieshavebeenrankedintermstheiroverallclimatevulnerability(e.g.Hareet al.,2016).Suchlistshavethenbeenusedtodeterminethemostvulnerablefishingcommunities,basedoncatchcompositionand social indicators including employment in the sector,labour force structure and rates of unemployment (e.g.Colburnet al.,2016).SuchanexercisehasnotbeencarriedoutfortheUK,orindeedanywhereelseinEurope,andasaresult,adaptationactionsthathavebeendevisedfortheUKfishingindustrysofar(e.g.Defra,2012;Garrettet al.,2015)have been somewhat generic. Australian researchers haveconducted an analysis of critical elements in the fisheriessupplychainunderachangingclimate(Plagányiet al.,2014).This study identified airports and transport links as key‘pinchpoints’thatneedprotectinginseafoodsupplychains;afeaturethatwasalsoidentifiedbyUKstakeholdersintheconsultationexerciseorganisedbySeafish(seeGarrettet al.,2015).Rather thanashortageof informationbeing thechallenge,Garrett et al. (2015) has suggested that themain problemto address is that climate change is not necessarily viewedasaprioritywithintheUKfishingindustry(underpinningthisisabeliefthatthelong-termclimatechangeimpactsinthe fisheries arena are inherently unknowable, other thanat a fairly broad brush level). Investing in more detailedinformation/evidence may not therefore, be the solution– whereas investing in the structures that support ‘sense-making’ (i.e. theprocessbywhichpeople givemeaning totheirdirectexperience)maybeappropriateandusefulinthelong-term (seeGarrettet al., 2015).Climate change isoneof themany risks and uncertainties the industry routinelyfaces.Theseafoodindustryisdiverse,complexanddynamic.These characteristicsdonot lend themselves to centralisedapproaches. It is inappropriate to consider implementationintermsofa‘grandplan’orprogrammeofadaptationactionfor the UK seafood industry. Adaptation requires muchcloser science-industrycollaborationandengagedresearchin theshort term,withamove towardsamorerobustandstrategicfisheriesknowledgebaseinthemediumterm.Itisrecommendedthat:1. Specificadaptationresponsesareintegratedintoexistingbusiness planning processes of the relevant fishing vessel‘owner’stakeholder.2. High level surveillance and review of climate changeresponses is instigated, and repeated on a regular basis,reflecting on the key climate change risks as they affectdifferentpartsoftheseafoodindustry(Seafishwouldbebestplacedtocarryoutthisrole).Ongoingreviewoftheaggregateclimatechangeimpactsonwildcapturefisheriesatthenationallevelismaintained(e.g.throughperiodicMCCIPreviews).Impactsoffutureoceanacidification(OA)onshellfishfisheries(andindirectimpactson finfish fisheries) are still highly uncertain given thatresponsesofspeciesinlaboratoryexperimentshavenotbeen

uniform,orevenconsistent.Thestudiesthathaveattemptedto ‘scaleup’ fromexperimental results toconsequences forfisheries(e.g.CooleyandDoney,2009;NaritaandRehdanz2017; Fernandes et al., 2017; Pinnegar et al., 2012)haveall used crude biological assumptions derived frommeta-analyses or individual tank trials, that often havedifferent end-points (e.g. calcification rate, growthtrajectory, oxygen consumption) with somewhat spuriouslinkstocommercialfisheries. More collaborative work isneeded combining empirical and modelling approaches,such as that currently underway in Sweden and Chileexploring whether (or not) OA will affect the taste ofcultured shellfish in the future(Dupontet al.,2014).Fishing operations can be impacted by adverse weatherconditions and fishing remains a dangerous occupation.Surprisinglylittlehasbeenwrittenaboutthedecision-makingprocesswherebyfishersdecidewhetherornottogotosea.Theevidence-baseisscatteredamongjournalsfocussingonrisk assessment, health and safety, fisheries economicsandsociology. Several recently published national or regionalassessmentsofclimatechangevulnerabilityhavehighlightedchangesinstorminessasakey,ifnottheprimary,long-termconcern for this industry, yet the impactsof future stormsandadverseweatherconditionshavenotbeenamajorfocusof sociological research or scientific investigation. Thereremains substantial uncertainty and thus low confidenceinfutureprojectionsofstormfrequencyandintensityovertheoceans.Consequently,itisextremelydifficulttodiscernwhetherfisherieswillbemoreorlesslikelytobedisruptedbypoorweatherconditionsinthefuture.5. EMERGING ISSUES (CURRENT AND FUTURE)Climate change presents challenges to marine species byproducingseawaterthatiswarmer,containslessoxygenandislowerinpHthanduringrecenthistory.Todate,mostclimate-change studies have tended to focus on ecological effectsof climate change, including behavioural or physiologicalacclimation of organisms in response to such pressures;whilerelativelylittleisknownaboutthecapacityofmarineorganisms to adapt by evolutionaryprocesses (Waples andAudzijonyti, 2016). A small but growing body of researchis, however, starting to focus on evolutionary adaptation;for example Kelly and Hofmann (2013) review currentliteratureonthepotentialforadaptationtoelevatedpCO2inmarine organisms. Important priorities for future researchwillbetoassessadaptationpotentialtolocalpHconditions,but also to understand the environmental conditions thatcommercialspeciesareactuallyexposedtoonadailybasis.Mostcommercialshellfishlivenearthecoast,wheretheyareexposed tohighlyvariablepHand temperature conditions(Provoostet al.,2010).Insomecases,fishorshellfishlivinginthesewaters,seasonal(anddaily)fluctuationsinpHand/ortemperatureswillbeexposedtolevelsnotexpecteduntilthelate21stCenturyelsewhere,thusthesespeciesmusthavesomerobustnessthroughpre-adaptation.Reduced oxygen concentrations in marine waters havebeencitedasamajorcauseforconcernglobally(DiazandRosenberg,2008).ThereisevidencethatareasoflowoxygensaturationhavestartedtoproliferateintheNorthSea(Questeet al., 2012).Whether or not these changes are a result oflong-term climate change remains unclear, and it is alsounknownwhethersuchchangeswillimpactoncommercialfishandtheirfisheries(Townhillet al.,2017).Severalauthorshave highlighted how oxygen concentrations, low pH andelevatedtemperatureinteractanddetermineaspecies‘scopefor growth’ (e.g. Pörtner andKnust, 2007).These findingshave been used as the basis of models for predicting sizeand distribution in North East Atlantic fishes, and hencefisheries catch potential (Cheung e t al., 2013). Projectionsof future oxygen concentrations in the North Sea are few

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andfarbetween,althoughbothvanderMolen et al.(2013)andMeire et al. (2013) suggest that bottomwater oxygenconcentrations will continue to decrease in the comingdecadesasaresultoflong-termclimatechange.CITATIONPleasecitethisdocumentas:Pinnegar, J.K.,Garrett,A.,Simpson,S.D.,Engelhard,G.H.and van der Kooij, J. (2017) Fisheries. MCCIP Science Review 2017,73 - 89.doi:10.14465/2017.arc10.007-fis

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