Tanya Langman

April 2018

Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT): U.S. Toll Roads

Criteria Overview and FACT Walkthrough

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Access FACT and Key Research

Click here for complimentary access to the U.S. Toll Roads - Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT)

Or visit: http://your.fitch.group/us-toll-roads-fact.html

Also Available:

• Peer Review of U.S. Toll Roads (Attribute

Assessments, Metrics & Ratings)

• Managed Lanes Peer Review

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Toll Roads Criteria Scope

Operating system (Brownfield) / New construction with completion risk (Greenfield)

Ownership / Governance / Legal Status

Publicly owned and operated / Public Private Partnership (P3) / Private Ownership

Facility types

Large Networks: Small Networks:

Turnpikes Small Expressway Systems

Large Expressway Systems Standalone Facilities

Major Urban Bridge Systems International Bridge Crossings

Managed Lanes

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U.S. Toll Roads Portfolio

Over 90% of the U.S. Toll Roads ratings have Stable Rating Outlooks

Standard Toll Roads: 54 public ratings on 40 issuers

Managed Lanes: 24 public ratings on 13 projects

− 6 Managed Lanes Facilities under construction

− 8 Managed Lanes Facilities are operated under a P3 concession framework

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Key Rating Factors

Toll Road Credit Rating

Revenue Risk:

Volume

Revenue Risk: Price

Infrastructure Development/

Renewal

Debt Structure

Debt Service

Completion Risk

Assessment of either:

“Stronger”, “Midrange” or

“Weaker”

Revenue Risk: Most direct

relative influence

Debt Service Risk:

Considers metrics in the

context of the overall risk

profile

Completion Risk: Projects

under construction

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Benchmarks: Volume and Financial Flexibility

Revenue Risk: Volume Local and regional economy. Type of corridor and competition.

Traffic volume volatility.

Traffic composition.

Elasticity.

Toll rate per mile or average toll.

Value of Time.

Financial Analysis

Net debt/CFADS.

DSCR/LLCR/PMICR/PLCR.

Leverage limitations.

MADS coverage.

Days cash on hand.

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Peer Analysis

• Criteria Indicative Rating Guidance is split by facility type (Large vs. Small Networks)

• Peers: Project with similar characteristics and traffic profiles

Stand-alone facility is NOT comparable with a monopolistic bridge system or a

national highway link

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FACT Overview

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What is FACT?

• FACT is an interactive, sector-specific comparative tool that facilitates detailed analysis

of Fitch-rated portfolio in excel format.

• The tool contains historical statistics for the sector and allows comparison of key metric

performance between individual issuers.

• Ratings are put into context by historical medians and issuer-specific key operational and

financial metrics.

• FACT Link to Fitch Ratings Website: Click here for complimentary access

to the U.S. Toll Roads - Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT)

Overview: Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT)

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The 2017 U.S. Toll Roads FACT:

• Contains data for 35 publicly rated operating toll road issuers.

• Historical data for 9 key metrics is available for fiscal years 2012 – 2016.

• Medians viewed: sector-wide or by rating category, facility type, asset type, and region.

4 Rating Categories: AA, A, BBB and NIG

2 Facility Types: Large and Small Networks

6 Asset Types: Turnpike, Large Expressway, Monopolistic Bridge System, Small

Expressway, International Bridge Systems, Stand-Alone

5 Regions: Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, Southwest, West

Overview: Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT)

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FACT: Cover Page

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Tab 1: Portfolio Statistics

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Portfolio Statistics - Operational

The first portion of the ‘Portfolio Statistics’ sheet allows the user to view 5 fiscal years of

operational and financial data for issuers.

For more specific samples, filtering is available by rating category, facility type (large or small

networks), and region. Statistics are presented on median and total basis.

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Portfolio Statistics - Financial

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Portfolio Statistics –Trend Compare

The second portion allows the user to compare historical trends for a selected metric

for two asset types or an individual asset type compared with the entire portfolio.

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Portfolio Statistics –Trend Compare

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Portfolio Statistics –Trend Compare

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Toll Rate Comparison on Per Mile Basis

Source: Issuers. The peak period toll rate per mile is a weighted average calculation provided by CDM

Smith as of June 2017.

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Tab 2: Issuer Metrics

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Issuer Metrics

The first portion of the ‘Issuer Metrics’ sheet allows the user to generate the profile of a

selected issuer.

The diamond charts present a visualization of the issuer’s key risk factors.

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Issuer Metrics

Based on the selected issuer, the second portion of the sheet provides the annual

performance for 9 key metrics. On the right, summary statistics are presented for a

particular metric of interest.

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Tab 3: Peer Comparison

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Peer Comparison

The first portion of the Peer Comparison sheet generates a comparison of up to four

chosen issuers’ profiles and their key risk factors.

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Peer Comparison – Operating Metrics

Based on the four chosen issuers, the second portion of the sheet shows a graphical

comparison of the issuers’ key metrics over time, compared to a selected median.

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Peer Comparison – Financial Metrics

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Non-Peer Comparison - Operating Metrics

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Non-Peer Comparison - Financial Metrics

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Tab 4: Percentile Ranks

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Percentile Ranks A representation of an issuer’s key metrics relative to a median group.

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Tab 5: Glossary 6

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Glossary

The final sheet gives definitions and calculations for the key metrics used throughout the tool.

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