Five Reasons Why Local Food Security Will Matter Even More in

the Very Near Future

Aleck OstryCanada Research Chair in the Social Determinants of Health and Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research Senior Scholar

1. Global supplies of food are decreasing

Financial Times- October 12th

Headline- Dramatic Supply Squeeze Threatens to Bring Repeat of Global Food Crisis

“Fears of a global food crisis swept the world’s commodity markets as prices for staples such as corn, rice, and wheat spiraled after the US government warned of “dramatically” lower supplies”

Furthermore according to FT:“The fall in supplies has prompted countries such as Russian and Ukraine to impose export restrictions on grains. Big importers in the Middle East and North Africa have started to hoard supplies, which has further tightened the market”.

Note that as food supplies decline, major exporters cut back exports or ban them entirely. People in major import nations begin to hoard staple foods. Prices of food goes up. This means that those with lowest income have considerably reduced access to food.

Lesson is that steady supply of well priced food is key to food security.

2. Global demand for of food is increasing

In a related FT article (same issue) entitled Downbeat corn report stirs up a buying frenzy

“Economists at the FAO state that anything other than a record crop is now a problem because of the need to meet rising food, livestock, and ethanol fuel demand. We need a record crop every year. If not, we are in trouble.”

The FT article goes on to say:

“While reduced supply is an issue, the bigger factor remains the strength of demand.”

In particular, corn has experienced a structural shift in demand:

i) Ethanol now consumes one third US corn

ii) Corn is now major feed for livestock in China, India and rest of Asia

Why- because of growing demand for western diets in formerly third world nations. This impact is huge and developing fast. For example:

“China in 2008/9 imported 50,000 tons of corn. This year China will import over 1 million tons of corn.

Lesson is that speed of increase in demand is accelerating way beyond historical levels of demand.

3. Perfect storm of >demand and < supply are occurring as limits on

arable land reached

Given that arable land is now fully planted the pressures for increased production will intensify industrial/genetic farming methods.

Problem is that increased intensity of industrial agriculture in a world facing climate change and other environmental limits will run, very quickly into, severe constraints.

However, greater emphasis on intense agriculture necessarily means more GHG emissions per acre which will speed up negative impacts of climate change on food production.

Lesson is that we can’t intensify our way out of this problem.

4. Climate Change will decrease food supply

Back to the Financial Times (Oct 12th):

“An especially hot summer in the US, droughts in countries including Russia and Brazil and heavy rain in Canada and Europe have hit many grain and oilseed crops this year. The USDA predicts the country’s stocks of corn would halve to their lowest levels in 14 years”.

Note what happened this summer in Russia. Extreme weather event (drought and associated fires) reduced grain planting.

Politicians moved to ban exports of food to ensure that Russians were fed first.

Lesson is that formerly secure food supply chains that we rely upon for food imports can break very quickly as climate change crises unfold. Impact is lack of access and increased price for available stocks.

What lessons for BC? We need to think about what climate change may mean for BC food production how it might affect imports.

What foods do we mainly produce “locally” and what foods are we reliant on for imports.

Need to then know, what climate change we are likely to see in BC and how these will differ in Fraser , Peace and Okanagan Valleys and on Southern and Central Van Isle.

Need to know what climate change will do in main places from which we import foods.

We grow all our dairy and most of our meat and fish. Thus, we need to think about how climate change will impact dairy, meat and fish production in BC.

We import most of our veggies, fruit and grains.Thus need to know where we get these from and

what climate changes will do in these places

Basic answer is that almost all out veggie and fruits come from California which is in advanced drought.

Likely impact on BC is that if we don’t diversify import sources or grow more locally, that prices for fruit and veggies will inflate even more rapidly.

5. Nutrition-related illness may push healthcare system to insolvency

Now about 45 percent of BC budget spent on healthcare but with predicted increases in diet-related chronic illness due to poor eating and obesity, 70 % of budget could be consumed by healthcare within 15 years.

If healthcare eats up 70% of the budget there will be little money left for other major priorities.

BC’s Chief Nutritionist and Population Health Branch working to make local food security the foundation upon which to build healthy eating habits in the population in order, over the long –term, to reduce the burden of chronic diet-related illness.

Lesson is that there may be a confluence of negative interests (<supply, > demand, > climate change threats) and positive interests (healthcare system recognition of healthfulness of local food security) that generate renewed interest in local food security

However, the take home messages are:1. The oft quoted message from the globalized food industry that they can beat local producers on price could change very soon as supply, demand, and sustainability trends are all in the wrong direction.2. Global food chains will become less reliable as supplies are “grabbed” by the strong.

3. Your food costs are going to go way up and soon. 4. There is a need to stimulate local production and processing in order to ensure your access to high quality reasonably priced foods in the future as these trends unfold.5. Development of local foods and food industry must be done in GHG neutral ways

6. Basic need for instituional purchasing managers to know what foods are available locally.7. What foods are available less locally but relatively near-by (rest of BC, Alta, Washington, Oregon)?

What follows are maps of local food self-sufficiency for Vancouver Island.

Vancouver Island: Local Health Areas

The Vancouver Island Health Authority (1 of 6 provincial health authorities) contains14 LHAs.

LHAs are used to collect and interpret health and nutrition related data in BC.

LHAs larger in land area are less densely populated.

Estimating local food self-sufficiency requires estimates of local production and consumption for each LHA

a) Consumption:Statistics Canada reports Canadian per-capita consumption averages each year (food disappearance data).We use BC Nutrition Survey to consumption by age and gender. These values were multiplied by the 2006 LHA population to estimate consumption demand for each major food category.

b) ProductionOur Census of Agriculture variables provides production data in hectares of land (for crops) or in number of animals (for livestock)Estimated yields (kg of food produced per hectare or per animal) are available from various yield surveys by Statistics Canada.

c) Local Food Self-sufficiencyProduction/ Consumption by LHA expressed as percentage

Dairy Self-SufficiencyDairy Self-Sufficiency

LHA Dairy SSR

Greater Victoria 0.0%

Sooke x

Saanich 24.3%

Gulf Islands 0.0%

Cowichan 169.5%

Lake Cowichan x

Ladysmith 128.5%

Nanaimo 7.8%

Qualicum 15.7%

Alberni 40.7%

Courtenay 152.4%

Campbell River 0.4%

TOTAL 35.50%

Fruit Self-SufficiencyFruit Self-Sufficiency

LHA Fruit SSR

Greater Victoria 1.0%

Sooke 4.1%

Saanich 7.4%

Gulf Islands 75.0%

Cowichan 17.3%

Lake Cowichan 2.5%

Ladysmith 8.9%

Nanaimo 2.9%

Qualicum 8.9%

Alberni 4.6%

Courtenay 17.6%

Campbell River 3.4%

TOTAL 8.1%

Vegetable Self-SufficiencyVegetable Self-Sufficiency

LHA Vegetable SSR

Greater Victoria 1.1%

Sooke 3.4%

Saanich 23.2%

Gulf Islands 21.9%

Cowichan 15.7%

Lake Cowichan 0.3%

Ladysmith 1.4%

Nanaimo 2.0%

Qualicum 5.1%

Alberni 24.3%

Courtenay 10.7%

Campbell River 4.3%

TOTAL 7.3%