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viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_km<úCa CDRI—Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute r)aykarN_fμI²sþIBIesdækic©km<úCa Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy tula 2009 ¼ October 2009 saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang pan; dalIs ¼ Phann Dalis RsIu bu)öar½tñ ¼ Sry Bopharath b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon Dorina bkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig v:a vNѳ PñMeBj km<úCa Phnom Penh, Cambodia TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Postal Address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia Tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 Fax: (855-23) 880-734 E-mail: [email protected]. Web site: http://www.cdri.org.kh ISSN 1810-6358

Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

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ISSN 1810-6358viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_kmCDRI—Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Instituter)aykarN_fµI²sþIBIesdækic©kmFlash Report on the Cambodian Economytula 2009 ¼ October 2009saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang pan; dalIs ¼ Phann Dalis RsIu bu)öar½tñ ¼ Sry Bopharath b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon DorinabkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig v:a vNѳPñMeBj kmPhnom Penh, CambodiaTO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork,

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Page 1: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_km<úCa

CDRI—Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute

r)aykarN_fµI²sþIBIesdækic©km<úCa Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy

tula 2009 ¼ October 2009

saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang

pan; dalIs ¼ Phann Dalis

RsIu bu)öar½tñ ¼ Sry Bopharath

b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon Dorina

bkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig v:a vNѳ

PñMeBj km<úCa Phnom Penh, Cambodia

TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Postal Address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 Fax: (855-23) 880-734 E-mail: [email protected]. Web site: http://www.cdri.org.kh

ISSN 1810-6358

Page 2: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2

karbkRsaytaragsMxan;² r)aykarN_enH bkRsayBIsUcnakresdækic©cMbg²mYycMnYnsMrab;km<úCa nig bNþaRbeTsédKUBaNiC¢kmµmYycMnYn edayeRbobeFobtYelxkñúgExfµI² enH CamYynwgExmun²kñúgqñaM2008 . enARtImasTI2 qñaM2009 GnumtivinieyaKKitCaRTBüskmµCab;lab;kñúg vis½ykat;edr ekIndl; 35landuløar eFobnwg 17landuløarkñúgRtImas mun . b:uEnþGnumtivinieyaKenH Føak;cuH 27° eFobnwgRtImasTI2 qñaM 2008 . kñúgExsIha cMnYnePJóvbreTssrubmkdl;km<úCa ekIn 5° eFobnwgExmun . cMnYnePJóvmkeFVICMnYj ekIn 1/3° nigePJóvmksRmaklMEh ekIn 5/0° ehIyePJóvmkdl;kñúgrUbPaBepSg²eTot ekInmYyCaBIr .

kñúgExmifuna témøGnumtiKeRmagsagsg;pÞH nigPUmiRKwHenAraCFanIPñMeBj Føak;cuHtictYc eFobnwgExmun edayFøak;cuHdl; 0/5landuløar . ninñakarenH KWpÞúyBIGnumtiKeRmagsagsg;pÞHElVg EdlekIneLIgBI 2/5landuløar dl; 6/2landuløar . GnumtiKeRmagsagsg;epSg²eTot ekInBI 3/8landuløar dl; 17landuløar .

kñúgExkkáda sac;R)ak;TMenr ekIn 1/8° eFobnwgExmun . témø RTBüskmµbreTssuT§ ekIn 3/9° b:uEnþ\NTandl;vis½yÉkCn Føak;cuH 0/2° . R)ak;beBaØIrdæaPi)al Føak;cuH 2/6° rIÉbMNuldéTeTot ekIneLIg 5/0° . kñúgExdEdl GRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaerolkñúgry³eBl 12Ex eLIg x<s;CagExmun 1/75° b:uEnþGRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaduløar cuHTabCagExmun 0/8° . GRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaerol KW 23° ÉGRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaduløar KW 16° .

kñúgExkBaØa R)ak;erolFøak;éfø Tl;nwgduløarGaemrik eFobnwgExmun edaybþÚr)an 4161/3erol¼duløarGaemrik . R)ak;erol bþÚr)an 123/3erol ¼)at nig 23/4erol¼100dug .

kñúgExkkáda karnaMecjsrubrbs;km<úCa sÞúHeLIgdl; 308landuløar eFobnwg 29landuløar kñúgExmifuna edaysarCasMxan;karnaMecjxag vis½ykat;edrekInxøaMgdl; 288landuløar eFobnwg 12landuløar kñúgExmun. karnaMecjekAs‘U ekIneLIg 93° mkdl; 7/2landuløar nigRtIekIn 4° dl; 0/4landuløar . karnaMcUlplitpl)arI Føak;cuH 31° EdkEfbcuH 24° b:uEnþkarnaMcUlsIum:g;t_ ekIneLIg 73° .

kñúgExsIha GtiprNaéføTMnijeRbIR)as;BImYyqñaMeTAmYyqñaM man -2/9° EdlCakarFøak;cuHtic ebIeFobnwg -3/9° kalBIExmun. muxTMnijesÞIrEt TaMgGs; kñúgtYelxsrubsuT§Føak;éføbnþic kñúgenaH mðÚbGaharnigePsC¢³Kµan CatiRsa ¬-2/3°¦ esvadwkCBa¢Ún ¬-13°¦ TUrKmnaKmn_ ¬-7/7°¦

Highlights This report describes some of the key economic indicators for Cambodia and its main trading partners. It compares figures for the current months of 2009 with those months in 2008.

In the second quarter, fixed asset investment approvals for the garment sector rose from USD17 m in the previous quarter to USD35 m. The approvals, however, decreased by 27 percent compared with the same quarter in 2008.

In August, total foreign visitor arrivals to Cambodia increased by 5.0 percent compared with the previous month. Business arrivals rose by 1.3 percent and holiday arrivals by 5.0 percent, while other arrivals doubled.

In June, approvals for Phnom Penh villa and house construction declined slightly from the previous month, falling to USD0.5 m. An opposite trend was evident in approvals for flat construction, which jumped from USD2.5 m to USD6.2 m. Other construction spiked from USD3.8 m to USD17m.

In July, liquidity grew by 1.8 percent from the previous month. Net foreign assets rose by 3.9 percent, while private sector credit fell 0.2 percent. Government deposits were down by 2.6 percent, while other liabilities rose by 5.0 percent. During the same month, the 12-month interest rate on riel loans was 1.75 percent higher than in the previous month, while the rate on dollar loans was 0.8 percent lower than in the preceding month. The interest rate on riel loans was 23 percent, and on dollar loans 16 percent

The value of the riel was down against the US dollar in September compared with the preceding month. It traded at KHR4161.3/USD. The riel was at KHR123.3 per Thai baht and at KHR23.4 per 100 Vietnamese dong.

Cambodia’s total exports jumped from USD29 m in June to USD308 m in July. The surge was due mainly to a sudden increase of garments, from USD12 m to USD288 m. Rubber exports rose 93 percent to USD7.2 m, and fish 4.0 percent to USD0.4 m. Cigarette imports dropped by 31 percent and steel by 24 percent, while cement imports rose by 73 percent.

In August, the year-on-year overall consumer price inflation was -2.9 percent, a smaller decline than the -3.9 percent in the previous month. Smaller price declines were evident in almost all components of the overall figure, namely food and non-alcoholic beverages (-2.3 percent), transportation (-13 percent), communications (-7.7

Page 3: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3

karsRmaklMEhnigvb,Fm’ ¬-0/5°¦ . éføsMelokbMBak; nigRTnab;eCIg ekIn 5/7° eRKOgtuTUnigRbtibtþikarkñúgpÞHekIn 6/6° karEfTaMsuxPaB ekIn 8/1° nigkarGb;rMekIn 14° .

kñúgExkBaØa éføeRbgm:as‘Ut nigsaMg ekIn 0/7° eFobnwgExmun . Ggár Føak;éføenAextþ)at;dMbg ¬6/0°¦ nigkMBg;s<W ¬24°¦ b:uEnþeLIgéfø enAkMBt ¬17°¦ ehIyvamanéføefr enAkMBg;cam esomrab nigsVayerog . RtI eLIgéfø enAextþ)at;dMbg ¬5/0°¦ kMBg;s<W ¬14°¦ nig kMBg;cam ¬15°¦ . kñúgExdEdl éføøsac;RCUk enAefr enAextþ)at;dMbg kMBg;s<W kMBg;cam esomrab nigsVayerog b:uEnþekIneLIg 5° enAkMBt .

kñúgExsIha éføGgárnaMecjenATIpSaréf Føak;cuH 21° eFobnwgExmun dl; 404duløar¼etan. ninñakarenH vapÞúyBI éføekAs‘U nigRKab;sVaycnÞI . éføekAs‘UekIneLIg 14° nigRKab;sVaycnÞIekIn 7/5° . enAelITIpSar evotNam GgárcuHéfø 8/0° edaylk;)an 411duløar¼etan rIÉ RKab;sVaycnÞI nigekAs‘U eLIgéfø 2/0° .

kñúgExsIha GtiprNaéføTMnijeRbIR)as; BImYyqñaMeTAmYyqñaMenAshrdæ Gaemrik ¬-1/5°¦ nigtMbn;GWr:U ¬-0/2°¦ minTabdUcExmuneT xN³Edl GtiprNaenACb:un enAdEdlRtwm -2/2° . b:uEnþGtiprNaéføTMnijTUeTA manninñakarekIneLIgenAcin ¬-1/2°¦ kUer:xagt,Úg ¬2/0°¦ sigðburI ¬-0/3°¦ nig éf ¬-1/0°¦ ehIyGtiprNaenAefrenAhugkug ¬1/3°¦ nigm:aeLsIu ¬-2/4°¦ .

kñúgExkBaØa eFobnwgR)ak;duløarGaemrik R)ak;v:unkUer: eLIgéfø 2/0° duløarhugkugeLIgéfø 3/4° nigR)ak;ey:nCb:uneLIgéfø 3/6° eFobnwg Exmun . dUcKñaEdr R)ak;GWr:U eLIgéfø 2/0° duløarsigðburIeLIgéfø 1/3° nigR)ak;)atéfeLIgéfø 0/5° .

kñúgExkkáda éføsENþkesog Føak;cuH 1/2° eFobnwgExmun edaylk;)an 419/9duløar¼etan . kñúgExdEdl éføeBatFøak;cuH 1/7° dl; 137/7duløar¼etan nigeRbgqacuH 12° dl; 580/5duløar¼etan . kñúgExkBaØa enAelITIpSarGnþrCati éføeRbgeqAlk;dl;éd Føak;cuH 5/4° eRbgm:as‘UtcuH 7/5° nig saMgcuH 8/0° eFobnwgExmun mkRtwm 68duløar¼Fug 45/8esn¼lIRt nig 45/8esn¼lIRt .

percent), recreation and culture (-0.5 percent). Clothing and footwear rose 5.7 percent, household furnishings and operations 6.6 percent, health care 8.1 percent and education services 14 percent.

In September, prices of diesel and gasoline both increased 0.7 percent from the previous month. The rice price declined in Battambang (6.0 percent) and Kompong Speu (24 percent). However, it rose in Kampot (17 percent), while remaining stable in Kompong Cham, Siem Reap and Svay Rieng. The fish price increased in Battambang (5.0 percent), Kompong Speu (14 percent) and Kompong Cham (15 percent). During the same period, pork’s price remained unchanged in Battambang, Kompong Speu, Kompong Cham, Siem Reap and Svay Rieng, but rose in Kampot by 5.0 percent.

The price of rice exported from Thailand decreased by 21 percent from the previous month, falling to USD404/tonne in August. The reverse trend was seen in the prices of rubber and cashew nuts. Rubber climbed by 14 percent and cashew nuts by 7.5 percent. In the Vietnamese market, rice was down 8.0 percent, selling at USD411/tonne. The prices of cashew nuts and rubber both rose 2.0 percent.

In August, year-on-year consumer price inflation in the USA (-1.5 percent) and euro zone (-0.2 percent) was not as low as in the previous month, while Japan was unchanged at -2.2 percent. The overall consumer price trend was upward in China (-1.2 percent), South Korea (2.0 percent), Singapore (-0.3 percent) and Thailand (-1.0 percent) and stable in Hong Kong (1.3 percent) and Malaysia (-2.4 percent).

In September against the US dollar, the Korean won appreciated by 2.0 percent, the Hong Kong dollar by 3.4 percent and the Japanese yen by 3.6 percent, compared with previous month. The euro appreciated by 2.0 percent, the Singapore dollar by 1.3 percent and the Thai baht by 0.5 percent.

In July, the price of soybeans shrank by 1.2 percent from the previous month, to USD419.9/tonne. During the same month, maize declined by 1.7 percent to USD137.7/tonne and palm oil by 12 percent to USD580.5/tonne. In September, the international spot price of crude oil decreased by 5.4 percent compared with the previous month, to US cents 68/barrel, diesel by 7.5 percent to US cents 45.8/ ℓ and gasoline by 8.0 percent to USD45.8/ ℓ.

Page 4: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4

skmµPaBesdækic©sMxan;² nig éføTMnijenAkm<úCa Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia

Fixed Asset Investment Approvals: Garments 2006 Q4–2009 Q2

35

16

48

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8006

Q4

07Q

1

07Q

2

07Q

3

07Q

4

08Q

1

08Q

2

08Q

3

08Q

4

09Q

1

09Q

2

USD

m

Including expansion projects. Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia

Foreign Visitor Arrivals May 2008–August 2009

154

146138

111113

735

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

000'

per

sons

OtherBusinessHoliday

Source: Ministry of Tourism

Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals April 2008–June 2009

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Phnom Penh: Inflation Year-on-Year Percentage Changes for August 2009

Source: National Institute of Statistics

Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices July 2008–September 2009

3422

3935

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/ℓ

Diesel Gasoline

Source: CDRI

Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans (percent) May 2008–July 2009

23.0

7

21.9

2

22.4

8

16.4

17.2

2

15.8

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Riel loan rate

Dollar loan rate

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr

08

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

USD

m

OtherFlatsVillas & houses

-2.9

-2.3

5.7

-9.9

6.6

8.1-13.2

-7.7

-0.513.8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

All items Fo o d & no n-a lco ho lic beveragesClo thing and fo o tware Ho us ing and utilitie sHH furnis hings and o pera tio ns HealthTrans po rt Co mmunicatio nsRecrea tio n and culture Educa tio n

Page 5: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5

sßanPaBGRtabþÚrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDÆn_BIeRkARbeTs Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance Riels per US Dollar

July 2008–September 2009

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Riels per THB & VND July 2008–September 2009

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Survey (Percent change) May 2008–July 2009

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Annualised growth rate (M2)Annualised growth rate (M1)Growth over the previous 12 months (M2)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Domestic Credit (Percent change) May 2008–July 2009

-40-20

020406080

100120140160180

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

0102030405060708090100110

Annualised change in domestic credit (left)Annualised change in private sector credit (left)Previous 12 months' growth in domestic credit (right)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Operations May 2008–July 2009

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

External Development Assistance Disbursement: Environment & Conservation

2000–2007 Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

4119 41

50 4161

4102 41

34 4145

3900

3950

4000

4050

4100

4150

4200Ju

l 08

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Market rate

Official rate

120

122.

412

3.3

24.9

23.4

23.4

114115116117118119120121122123124

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

KH

R pe

r Bah

t

1920212223242526272829

KH

R pe

r VD

N10

0

Thai baht (left)Vietnamese dong (right)

-6000-4000-2000

02000400060008000

100001200014000

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

KH

R bn

Liquidity Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Credit Government DepositsOther

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

USD

m

Page 6: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6

BaNiC¢kmµeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtþfvikaCati External Trade and National Budget Operations

Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials May 2008–July 2009

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia: Main Exports May 2008–July 2009

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Imports: Petroleum Products May 2008–July 2009

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Current Budget Operations June 2008–August 2009

Source: MEF Bulletin Current Budget Revenue June 2008–August 2009

Source: MEF web site

Current Budget Expenditure June 2008–August 2009

Source: MEF web site

247251276

85908780

5541

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

KH

R bn

Non-taxImport and Export taxesDomes tic taxes

35.2

65.9 45.5

16.0

11.8

20.414.2

16.5

12.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120M

ay 0

8

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

KH

R bn

Cigarettes Cement Steel

108.

398

.6

98.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

KH

R b

n

-4

129

-144-200-150-100

-500

50100150200250

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

KH

R bn

416

18567

164

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

KH

R bn

Other servicesSubsidies and social assistanceWagesCurrent expenditure

050

100150200250300350400

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

USD

m

012345678

USD

m

Total exports (left) Garments (left)Rubber (right) Fish (right)

Page 7: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 7

éføes,ógGahartamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa Provincial Food Prices

Cambodia: Food Prices in Siem Reap Province July 2008–September 2009

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Food Prices in Battambang Province July 2008–September 2009

Source: CDRI Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Cham Province

July 2008–September 2009

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kampot Province July 2008–September 2009

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Food Prices in Svay Rieng Province July 2008–September 2009

50040007500

11000145001800021500

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/k

g

300070001100015000190002300027000

Rie

ls/k

g

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Speu Province July 2008–September 2009

50040007500

1100014500180002150025000

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/k

g

30007000110001500019000230002700031000

Rie

ls/k

g

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI

50040007500

11000145001800021500

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/k

g

300070001100015000190002300027000

Rie

ls/k

g

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

500

40007500

11000

1450018000

21500

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/k

g

3000

700011000

15000

1900023000

27000

Rie

ls/k

g

Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left)1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

50040007500

11000145001800021500

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/k

g

300070001100015000190002300027000

Rie

ls/k

g

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

50040007500

11000145001800021500

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

Rie

ls/k

g

300070001100015000190002300027000

Rie

ls/k

g

Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left)1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Page 8: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 8

éføTMnijtamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa³ tammuxTMnij Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia by Products

Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces

Source: CDRI Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces

Source: CDRI

2550

2550

2550

240025

00

2500 29

00

2200

2400 24

75

2500

2500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Riel

s/kg

BattambangKompong SpeuKompong Cham

2550

2600

2400

2800

2500

2500

2500

2500

2500

2700

2600

2600

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Riel

s/kg

KampotSiem ReapSvay Rieng

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Riel

s/kg

BattambangKompong SpeuKompong Cham

1400

0

1600

0

1500

0

1600

0

1300

0

1400

0

1400

0

1200

0

1200

0

1200

0

1300

0

1300

0

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Riel

s/kg

KampotSiem ReapSvay Rieng

1650

0

1650

0

1650

0

1650

0

1650

0

1650

0

1600

0

1650

0

1800

0

1800

0

1800

0

1800

0

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

18000

18500

Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Riel

s/kg Battambang

Kompong SpeuKompong Cham

1800

0

1800

0

1700

0

1800

0

1800

0

1600

0

1600

0

1600

0

1500

0

1500

0

1500

0

1500

0

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Riel

s/kg

KampotSiem ReapSvay Rieng

Page 9: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 9

tMélTMnij karnaMecj nig cMnYneTscrGnþrCatienAkñúgRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia

Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Maize June 2008–August 2009

Source: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments

Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew NutsJune 2008–August 2009

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Thailand: Exports

June 2008–August 2009

Source: Customs Department of Thailand

Vietnam: Exports June 2008– August 2009

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Thailand: International Arrivals October 2006–December 2007*

Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand *Data are available to December 2007.

Vietnam: International Arrivals June 2008–August 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jun-

08

Aug

-08

Oct

-09

Dec

-08

Feb-

09

Apr

-09

Jun-

09

Aug

-09

000'

per

sons

Others

Business

Tourism

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Data were estimated by the statistics office.

0

200400

600800

1000

12001400

1600

Oct

06

Dec

06

Feb

07

Apr

07

Jun

07

Aug

07

Oct

07

Dec

07

000

pers

ons

Air Land Sea

200300400500600700800900

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

USD

m

0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

USD

m

Rice (left)Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left)Cashew and similar nuts (right)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

USD

per

tonn

e

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

USD

per

tonn

e

Rice (left) Rubber (right)

Cashew nuts (right)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

USD

per

tonn

e

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

USD

per

tonn

e

Rice (left)Rubber (right)Maize and Maize Products (right)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

USD

per

tonn

e

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

USD

per

tonn

e

Rice (left) Rubber (right)

Cashew nuts (right)

Page 10: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 10

skmµPaBesdækic© nig sßanPaBGRtaGtiprNaénbNþaRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa Economic Activity and Inflation Rates of Selected Economic Partners of Cambodia

Year-on-Year Growth of Main Exports: Japan (%)November 2008–July 2009

Source: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics

Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan June 2008–June 2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

USD

bn

US Euro zoneJapan

Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD

External Trade: Malaysia July 2008–July 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09

USD

bn

Exports Imports Trade balance

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan (price change from a year earlier)

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09

USA Euro zone Japan

Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)

Inflation Rate: China, Hong Kong & South Korea (price change from a year earlier)

-3%

-2%-1%

0%

1%2%

3%

4%5%

6%

Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09

China Hong Kong South Korea

Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)

Inflation Rate: Selected ASEAN Countries (price change from a year earlier)

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09

Malaysia SingaporeThailand

Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09

Manufactured goods MachineryElectricial machinery Transport equipmentTotal

Page 11: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 11

GRtabþÚrR)ak; nig sßanPaBtMélTMnijelITIpSarGnþrCati Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets

KRW & HKD per USD September 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

EUR & JPY per USD July 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

THB & SGD Per USD July 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices June 2008–August 2009

Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm Oil

May 2008–July 2009 Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & Diesel September 2008–September 2009

Source: US Energy Information Administration

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

KRW

7.72

7.73

7.74

7.75

7.76

7.77

7.78

7.79

7.80

HK

D

KRW (left scale)HKD (right scale)

90

9498

102

106110

114

118122

126

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

JPY

0.6

0.630.66

0.69

0.720.75

0.78

0.810.84

0.87

EURO

JPY (left scale)

EURO (right scale)

1.35

1.38

1.41

1.44

1.47

1.50

1.53

1.56

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep

09

SGD

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

THB

SGD (left scale)THB (right scale)

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

Jun

08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

USD

/ to

nne

FOB

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

IPO

USA 2/4Thai 100% BIPO

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

May

08

Jul 0

8

Sep

08

Nov

08

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

USD

/ to

nne

FOB

0

4 0 0

8 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 6 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

S o y b e a n s : U S N o .1 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le )M a iz e : U S N o .2 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le )P a lm O il: c ru d e ( r ig h t s c a le )

2 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0

1 0 01 1 01 2 01 3 01 4 01 5 0

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr

09

Jun

09

Aug

09

USD

2 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 01 0 01 1 01 2 01 3 01 4 01 5 0

US

Cen

t

C ru d e o il : O P E C sp o t - U S D /b a r re l

G a so lin e : U S G u lf C o a s t - U S c e n ts /l i tre ( r ig h t s c a le )

D ie se l: lo w su lp h u r N o .2 - U S c e n ts / li tre ( r ig h t s c a le )

Page 12: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 12

B½t’manesdækic© Economic News

B½t’manesdækic©sMxan;² ³

enAkm<úCa kmµkreragcRkkat;edr cMnYn 20000nak; )an)at;bg;kargar ³ r)aykarN_rbs;RksYgkargarEdlecjpSaykalBIéf¶c½nÞ ¬TI 5 tula¦ )an bgðajfa enAkm<úCa kmµkrkat;edry:agehacNas;cMnYn 20000nak; )an)at;bg;kargarenAqñaMenH edaysaresdækic©saklFøak;cuH . Ep¥ktam r)aykarN_mYy EdlTIPñak;garsarB½t’man)araMgTTYl)an enAGMLúgExmkra dl;ExkBaØa enAkm<úCa man 77eragcRk )anbiTTVar EdleFVI[)at;bg;Gs; 30/617kargar . r)aykarN_dEdlenaHbgðajeTotfa eTaHbIenA GMLúgeBldEdlenaH maneragcRk 40 )anebIkfµI nigpþl;kargarbEnßmkþI b:uEnþmanCag 20000kargar enAEtRtUv)at;bg; . RsbeBlenaHEdr man eragcRk cMnYn53 )anp¥akRbtibtþikar b:uEnþkñúgenaH RbmaN 50° )ancab;dMeNIrkarsarCafµIehIy . Ék]tþm G‘¿u man rdæelxaFikarénRksYg kargar )anR)ab;TIPñak;garsarB½t’man)araMgfa karEdl eragcRkbiTTVar ElgdMeNIrkarenH KWbNþalmkBIkarbBa¢aTijmanticCagmun . Ék]tþm )anmanRbsasn_fa :eyIgGacsnµt;fa sßanPaBenHbNþalmkBIvibtþi hirBaØvtßúsakl edaysarkareRbIR)as;enARbeTsFM²Føak;cuH ehIyk¾Kµan karbBa¢aTijsRmab;eragcRkmYycMnYn :. Ék]tþm )anbEnßmfa enAcMeBaHmux karFøak;cuHtRmUvkarBIshrdæGaemrik EdlCaRbeTsnaMcUlFMbMputnUv plitplkat;edrrbs;km<úCa rdæaPi)alkMBugEsVgrkTIpSarfµIsRmab; vaynP½NÐkm<úCa enAGasIu nigGWr:ub . sMrab;km<úCa vis½ykat;edr KWCa RbPBcMNUld¾FMbMputEdlpþl;R)ak;cMNUl)anRbEhl 80° énR)ak;cMNUl CarUbiyvtßúbreTsrbs;km<úCa nig pþl;kargardl;RbCaBlrdæ)anRbEhl 350>000nak; kalBIqñaMmun . GgÁkarmUlniFirUbiyvtßúBiPBelak )ankt;smÁal;kalBIExmifunaenHfa esdækic©km<úCa nwgrYmcuH 2/75° enAkñúgqñaMenH edaysarsMBaFénvibtþiesdækic©sakl .

Economic News Highlights:

20,000 garment workers lose jobs in Cambodia: The global economic downturn has forced at least 20,000 workers to lose their jobs in Cambodia’s garment industry this year, a labour ministry report showed Monday (October 5). Between January and September, 77 factories were closed across the country resulting in the loss of 30,617 jobs, according to the report obtained by AFP. Although 40 new factories opened in same the period and created more employment, more than 20,000 job losses remained, it showed. Another 53 factories also suspended operations during the period but about half have reopened. “The closure of the factories is due to fewer purchase orders,” Oum Mean, secretary of state at the Ministry of Labour, told AFP. “We can assume that this has been caused by the global financial crisis because the consumption in big countries has declined and this made some factories receive no purchase orders,” he said. In the face of shrinking demand from the US, the largest importer of Cambodian-made garments, the government is seeking new markets for textiles in Asia and Europe, Oum Mean added. Cambodia’s garment industry is the impoverished country’s largest source of income, providing 80 percent of its foreign exchange earnings and employing an estimated 350,000 people last year. The International Monetary Fund said last month that Cambodia’s economy will contract 2.75 percent this year as the global economic crisis takes its toll. (Source: AFP, October 5)

Links to other economic news:

1. “IMF predicts Cambodian economy to be over 4% in 2010” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/24/content_12104498.htm) 2. “ADB revises GDP growth forecast for Cambodia” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/22/content_12098450.htm) 3. “Cambodia inflation down by sixth consecutive month” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/15/content_12055262.htm) 4. “ASEAN economies have emerged from recession” (http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_lite.php?id=435484

Page 13: Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Oct 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 13