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Flood Forecasting InitiativeGuy Shalev
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flooding impact
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flood Forecasting Initiative
The Google Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Goal: Scalable high-accuracy high-resolution flood forecasts and warnings globally
Flood Forecasting Initiative
The Google Flood Forecasting Initiative
Why Google? Why not (just) Google?
Public-facing interfacesComputational resourcesAccess to global data(Elevation, user-generated data, etc.)ScalabilityMachine learning expertise
Governmental mandateHydrologic expertiseOperational expertiseRelationship with organizational consumers
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Hydraulic model - Goal
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Satellite imagery(Multiple sources)
Government
Google DEM generation
Gauge measurements& forecasts
Hydraulic model - Overview
Google Hydraulic Model(currently focusing on hydraulic
modeling of riverine floods)
Inundation Map
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Challenge: Elevation Maps
SRTM (NASA) Goal
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Challenge: Elevation Maps
Goal
Bihar 1992 - 2016 Bryk et al.
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Producing Elevation Maps
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Also allows annual updates
Achieve 1 meter resolution & vertical accuracy
Multi-Asset Spatial Alignment
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Where are the cameras pointing?What is the surface geometry?How does light reflect?
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Elevation Map Example
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Google-generated Elevation Map
SRTM
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Surface to Terrain Generation
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Digital Terrain ModelDigital Surface Model
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Embankments and river bed
Computational costs rise with higher resolution
Challenges
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Components are divided to physical and conceptual
They continuously interact with each other over time
Hydrologic ModelClassic Approach
Flood Forecasting Initiative
A Regional Hydrologic Model Using ML
Why Regional + ML? Main Challenges
Complex, non-linear processAbundance of dataScalabilityUngauged basins
Using the right metricsData quality disparityInterpretability and uncertainty
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Encouraging Results
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Kratzert et al. – Work in progress
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Informing the Public
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Google Public Alerts
Public Alerts have already provided 100,000s of alerts to over 2 billion people
Help local and public authorities communicate emergency messages
Search Maps AndroidIn Progress
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Informing Governments
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Funded by Google.org
Provide information to local NGOs to distribute to the community
Outsourcing Alerts
All our alerts are publicly available in human- and computer-readable formats
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Patna Pilot
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Next Steps
Increase lead time
Improve communication infrastructure
Support new drivers of floods
Ganges & Brahmaputra India Globally
Imp
rove
fore
cast
s
Scale Up
Flood Forecasting Initiative
Thank You!
Flood Forecasting Initiative