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7/30/2019 FM-S101-Climate Risks in the Philippines by Nathaniel Servando
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NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO Administrator, PAGASA
Depa rtment of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Philippine Flood Management Knowledge Sharing Forum4-5 December 2012
Manila
Climate Risks in the
Philippines Angat Dam
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracyof the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
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Outline of Presentation
1. PAGASA in a nutshell2. Philippines’ vulnerability to extreme
climate/flood events
3. Brief Climatology, Trends and Projections4. Initiatives and Current projects to improve
PAGASA’s early warning services
5. Challenges, opportunities and WAY FORWARD
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PAGASA in a Nutshell
Philippine, Atmospheric, Geophysical &Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) - Presidential Decree No. 78 (Dec.
1972) as amended by PD No. 1149 (June 1977)
PAGASA Headquarter
Agham Road, Diliman, QC.
The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations.
The PAGASA Administrator is the Permanent Representative with WMO.
PAGASA is a Member of the NDRRMC.
PAGASA is an attached agency of the Departmentof Science and Technology (DOST)
The nation’s meteorological &
hydrological service (NMHS)To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical
products & services to promote the people’s safety and
well-being, and contribute to national development
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PAGASA in a Nutshell
Operational Division
PAGASA in a Nutshell: OrganizationalChart
weather Dry
spell/droughtsfloods
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NETWORK OF PAGASA STATIONS
EXISTING MONITORING
WEATHER STATIONS1. Synoptic Stations (Manual) 58
2. Agromet Stations (Manual) 21
3. CLIMAT Rain Stations (Manual) 75
4. Upper Air Stations 6
5. Automatic Weather Stations (10 m windmast) AWS(ASTI) - 2 meter wind mast
73
80
6. Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) - PAGASA
Automatic Rain Gauge - ASTI – PREDICT
87
100/91
7. Marine Bouy 2
8. Wind profiler 1
9. RADAR Stations (Existing 10
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Existing telemetered gauging stations in major riverbasins & reservoirs
River basin / dam RR WL Date1. Pampanga river basin 17 10 1973
2. Agno river basin 12 9 1983
3. Bicol river basin 11 7 1983
4. Cagayan river basin 5 5 1983
5. Pasig-Marikina-LagunaLake
EFCOS (MMDA)
KOICA (PAGASA)
ASTI (DOST)
7
17
11
16
33
1993
2012
6. Angat dam 4 2 19865. Pantabangan dam 5 1 1986
6. Binga/Ambuklao dam 6 2 1992
7. San Roque dam 3 2 2003
8. Magat dam 6 2 1992
9. Ipo/La Mesa dam 2 2 2011
Monitored telemetered major reservoirs
Monitored telemetered major river basins (5)
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2Philippines’
Vulnerability toExtreme Climate/Flood
Events
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The nature of hazards in the Philippines
Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster
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Why is the Philippines prone toflooding?
Meteorological factors:
The climate of the PH is
influenced by thecomplex interactions ofvarious factors such as :
Philippine Geography andTopography
Linear systems
Principal Air Streams
Semi-permanent cyclonesand anti-cyclones
Tropical Cyclones
ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)
Ocean currents
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Extreme flood / flash flood events in the PH
1. 1972 flood in Central Luzon – due to 4 storms in July to August
2. 1979 flood in Bulacan due to unprecedented spill of Angat dam
3. 1991 flash flood in Ormoc City due to Typhoon Uring
4. 2004 flood in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flash floods in
Infanta & Quezon provinces due to passages of Typhoons
Violata, Winnie and Yoyong
5. 2006 floods/flashflood in Albay due to passage of TyphoonReming (Durian)
6. 2008 floods/flashflood in Panay Island due to passage of
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)
7. 2009 floods in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces &
Pangasinan due to spill of San Roque dam8. 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel) and
Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities (Tropical Storm Sendong)
9. 2012 floods in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces due to
the surge of the Southwest monsoon
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Aug 2004 floods in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flashfloods in Infanta & Quezon provinces
Mosaic of
Dingalan
town and
vicinityshowing
flood/
flashflood
hazard
analysis.(Data: 2005
aerial
photographs,
courtesy of
ICDAI) Source: Cruz, et al, 2005
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29 Nov 2006 flood/flashflood in Albay province
DeadAffected
populationTotal
Damage
734 2.0M P5.5B
TY Reming
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June 2008 flood/flash flood in the Iloilo province
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26 Sep 2009 flooding in Metro Manila & surroundingprovinces
Bankoff (2003) described that Metro Manila’s vulnerability to flooding has
evolved as a result of the degree of interplay between climate, topography,
resource use, and culture over time.
TS Ondoy
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Causes of flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding areas on
26 September 2009 – due to passage of TS Ketsana
Insufficient carryingcapacities
Intense rainfall
High/dense population
High rate ofurbanization
Deforestation
Informal settlers
Unabated/rampantdevelopment
Insufficient warnings
09 O b 2009 fl d i P i d h ill
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09 October 2009 floods in Pangasinan due to the spillof San Roque dam
TY Pepeng
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Sep - Oct 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel)
Fl h fl d i C d O & Ili iti 16 D
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Flash flood in Cagayan de Oro & Iligan cities on 16 Dec2011 due to passage of TS Washi (Sendong)
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Hourly Rainfall at Science Garden during the passage of TS Ondoy & Habagat
R a i n f a l l ( m m )
Comparison with TS Ondoy
The big volume of rainfall (500mm) brought about by TS Ondoy increased
abruptly over 24 hours whereas during Habagat the 500mm of rainfall was
accumulated gradually over 48 hours.
300 mm in 6hrs
(TS Ondoy)
300 mm in 22 hrs
Habagat
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HABAGAT DAMAGES (As of 14 August 2012-NDRRMC)
AffectedPopulation
Casualties Infrastructure Agriculture FloodedAreas
825,018
families /
3,742,674
persons
Dead: 95 P 639,128,230.00 P
1,624,410,815.14
56 Cities/
Municipalities
from NCR,
Reg. 3 &
IV-A
Wh i h Phili i d h ?
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Why is the Philippines prone to droughts?IMPACTS OF SELECTED EL NIÑO EVENT ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
1997-98, About 70% of the
Philippines experienceddrought
1987-88, moderate drought
impacts
1977-88, total loss of 7.5 x105 MT of rice & corn
production1977-88, loss of 6.4 x 10 5 MT of rice & corn production; insurance claims P38M; Hydropower generation loss P316M
ALL DROUGHT OCCURRENCES ARE ENSO-RELATED (El Niño)
2007 D ll
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2007 Dry spell
• Cordillera Autonomous Region
(CAR)
• Region I
• Region II
• Central Luzon
• Metro Manila
Affected Areas: (2007 Dry spell)
State of calamity in La UnionPhilippine Star Jul 31, 2007
Ñ
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EL NIÑOManifestations
Tropical Cyclones During August 2004 El Niño
During El Niño, there are cases where tropical cyclones are not rain-effective
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The last El Niño
episode started June2009 and ended May2010
EL NIÑO IMPACTS ANGAT DAM
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3
Brief Climatology, Trends
and Projections
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Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the PhilippinesAVERAGE RAINFALL
APRIL-SEPTEMBER(1951-2000First
semestral
AVERAGE RAINFALLOCTOBER-MARCH
(1951-2000Second
semestral
Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the
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Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in thePhilippines
Tropical cyclone statistics in PH
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Tropical cyclone statistics in PHDISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010
TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage
in Billion PhP
TY_PEPENG (Parma)Sep 30 - Oct 102009 27.296722
TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000
TY FRANK
(Fengshen) Jun 18 – 23, 2008 13.500000
TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 11.500000
TS_ONDOY(Ketsana) Sep 24 – 27, 2009 10.952198
TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
Number of Casualties > 300
TC NAME Date of Occurrence Casualties
TS Uring * Nov 1-6, 1991 5101
TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15-17, 2011 1268
TY Nitang Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 1029
TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995
TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991
TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936
MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
TC NAMEMaximum
Wind (kph)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006
TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998
TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981
TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970
TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974
TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAMEMaximum 24-hour
rainfall (mm)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001
TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998
TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967
TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974
TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991
TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980
*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong werecharacterized by flashfloods.
Increasing cost of Damage
Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila
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Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila
Source: HMD, PAGASA
Metro Manila’s regional GDP in 2008
was 468 billion PHP (NationalStatistical Coordination Board).Damage costs range from 3% of GDP
(SQ-EX-10) to 24% (A1FI-EX-100).
Climate change costs represent 1%(1-in-10 flood), 6% (1-in-30 flood) &10% (1-in-100 flood) of GDP.
Source: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report, 2010, ADB, JICA, WB
WithoutCC
With CC
Impacts of flooding
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Impacts of flooding
There is no single description for ‘floods’. Rather there are
different situations such as flash floods, monsoon flooding and
wind storms such as tropical cyclones. The scale of floods in
the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of floods.
Source: Office of Civil Defense
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
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Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 ºC during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0ºC under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 ºC increase under a high emissionscenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high ormedium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have longlifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
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Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)
Dry seasons
becoming drier.
Wet seasons
becoming wetter.
Medium-range Emission Scenario
2020 2050
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%
Mar-Apr-May (MAM) -0.2 to -33.3% -1.4 to -39.8%Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) -0.4 to 43.1% -0.7 to 72.5%
Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 30.0% -0.5 to 39.0%
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
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0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Davao
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Hinatuan
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Casiguran
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Dumaguete
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Baguio
OBS
2020
2050
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0Iloilo
OBS
2020
2050
Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emissionscenario (A1B) By Climate type
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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4.Current initiatives and projects
to improve PAGASA’s early
warning services
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“tracking the sky…helping the country”
Integrated High Performance Computing System (iHPCS)
Rolling-out of Climate Change Projection Scenarios Information
Redundant Communication System
Warning System for Marine and Air Navigation and Transport
Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Raingauges, andWater Level Sensors
IEC on hydrometeorological hazards
Mapping of Real-Time/Historical Hazard Events
E h f R d k
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Enhancement of Radar network
TAGAYTAY
SUBIC BALER
BAGUIO
TAMPACAN
APARRI
MACTAN
GUIUAN
HINATUAN
VIRAC
BUSUANGA
ILOILO
QUEZON
ZAMBOANGA
UPDATES:
Operational
Baguio
Subic
Tagaytay
Virac
Mactan
Hinatuan
Construction – On-going
Guiuan
Under testing &commissioning
Aparri, Tampacan
Under bidding process
Busuanga, Iloilo, Quezon &Zamboanga
Mobile Doppler Radar
ENSO VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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Rolling-out of Climate ChangeProjection Scenarios Information
Seasonal Climate Forecast
ENSO/Drought Monitoring
Agrometeorological forecasts andimpact assessments
ENSO VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGEADAPTATION MEASURES
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services
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Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services
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Thunderstorm Warning System:
be
website
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Challenges opportunities & WAY FORWARD
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Challenges, opportunities & WAY FORWARD
1. Establishment of FFWS Centers (buildings) in the other 13 major
river basins in the country
2. Assist NOAH project in the installation of 1000 monitoring stations(rainfall & water level gauges in major river and principal river
basins)
3. Operationalization of the KOICA2 Project
4. Enhancement of flood forecasts showing the extent or limits of
inundation – NOAH program (DOST)
5. Continue flood hazard mapping activities (1:10K)
6. Integration and harmonization of activities under various local &
foreign- assisted project which will are on-going and to be
implemented in 2013
7. Adoption of the newly upgraded Dam & Flood warning protocols
8. Promotion of Community Based Flood Early Warning System(CBFEWS)
9. Develop/ adopt new methods for long-term /seasonal forecast (i.e.
combined statistical and dynamical approach)
Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 Major River
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Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 Major RiverBasins in 2013 - PAGASA
18 Major river basins River Basin Location Area, km2
1 Abulog Luzon 3,372 2 Abra Luzon 5,125
3 Panay Visayas 1,843
4 Jalaur Visayas 1,503
5 Ilog-Hilabangan Visayas 1,945
6 Agusan Mindanao 10,621
7 Agus-Lake Lanao Mindanao 1,645
8 Cagayan de Oro Mindanao 1,521
9 Tagum-Libuganon
Mindanao 3,064
10 Davao Mindanao 1,623
11 Buayan-Malungun
Mindanao 1,434
12 Taglaoan Mindanao 1,704
13 Mindanao Mindanao 23,169
National Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH)
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National Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH)Project – DOST and UP
Operationalization of the KOICA2 Project: Establishment of
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p j Establishment ofEarly Warning & Monitoring System for Metro Manila
EFCOS Monitoring & Warning system- 7 rainfall stations- 10 water level stations
- 9 Warning posts (Manggahan Floodway
KOICA2 Project
KOICA Monitoring & warning system- 7 rainfall stations & 10 water level stations
- 4 automatic weather stations (AWS)- 19 warning posts in Pasig-Marikina & Nangka rivers
Integration of existing & proposed monitoringsystems – Resilience project (UNDP-CIDA)
Various projects for implementation in 2013
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Various projects for implementation in 2013No. Project Title Study/Pilot Area/Basin Donor Duration
1 Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 major river
basin (”RIVER CENTERS” Project)
4-5 Centers in 2013; the rest in
2014
GoP (2013 GAA) 2013 - 2014
2 GMMA Risk Assessment Project (RAP) GMMA AusAID/GA 2010-2013
3 Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning
System in the Bicol River Basin (“BICOL Project”)
Bicol River Basin Government of
Japan (GoJ)
2010-2013
4 Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning
System on Magat Dam and downstream
communities (“Norad Project”)
Magat watershed Norad 2010 - 2013
5 Building Community Resilience and Strengthening
Local Government Capacities for Recovery and
Disaster Risk Management (“Resilience Project”)
GMMA UNDP/ CIDA 2010 - 2013
6 UNDP Ready for GMMA Project Laguna, Rizal, Cavite & Bulacan UNDP/ AusAID 2010 - 2013
7 Applying Remote Sensing Technology in River Basin
Management in Philippines
Cagayan River Basin ADB/ JAXA 2013
8 Supporting Investments in Water-Related Disaster
Management
Cagayan River Basin ADB/ ICHARM 2013
9 Ecotown Demonstration Framework on Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment (V&A) of Vulnerable
Areas to Climate Change
Siargao Island and Palawan GGGI/CCC 2012 - 2013
10 Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate
Change Adaptation (DRR/CCA) in Local development
Planning and Decision-making Process
Al l 13 Regions and 82 provinces UNDP/ AusAID &
NZAP /NEDA
2012 - 2013
11 Enabling the Cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to
Cope with Climate Change (“Project Climate TwinPhoenix ”)
Cagayan de Oro and Mandulog
river basins
UNDP/AusAID 2013 - 2014
Various projects for implementation in 2013
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Various projects for implementation in 2013No. Project Title Study/Pilot Area/Basin Donor Duration
12 Establishment of a Pilot Automatic Warning System
(AWS) in Cagayan de Oro River Basin
CDO river basin NDMI / MOPAS,
Korea
2013
13 Resilience Capacity Building for Cities andMunicipalities to Reduce Disaster Risks from Climate
Change and Natural Hazards (“ReBUILD Project”)
Regions 2 (CRB), 3 (PRB)and 6 (Jalaur, Aklan,
Panay, Ilog-Hilabangan)
UNDP/ NZAP 2013 - 2015
14 Counterplan for Extra-ordinary Flood Pampanga river basin UNESCAP/
WMO/ TC / KICT
2012 - 2014
15 Data Collection Survey on Situation of nationwide
Flood Forecasting and Warning System
All major river basins;
Mandulog river basin
JICA 2013
16 Operationalization of KOICA2 Project Pasig-Marikina river basin KOICA 2013
17 Disaster Preparedness & Response Project Benguet, Cagayan,
Laguna, & Sorsogon
UN-WFP 2013
18 FAO-A MICAF Project (Modeling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)
FAO/Gov. of
Japan thru DA
2012-2013
19. Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project
(PhilCCAP)
Region 2, Region 6 World Bank 2011-2015
20.
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The source of man's unhappinessis his ignorance of Nature.
- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph