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Focusing Opportunities by Modeling Ps from
Historical Well Results
Case Study of a Shale Gas Play
by: Rich Priem [email protected]
281-451-8818 PUG 2014 Exploration Track April 25: Friday@9
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Objectives
GIS for GEOSCIENCE More than just Surface Maps Complex sub-surface Geology
Advanced Spatial Analysis
Overview Boom in Unconventional Shale Plays
Results: Maps Identify & Quantify Exploration Potential
Stimulate Ideas Much more that has & could be done!
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Marcellus Shale
Largest source of Natural Gas in the USA Surge in drilling activity since 2008 Still growing rapidly!
Appalachian Basin, USA Pennsylvania & West Virginia
southeast Ohio & upstate New York
104, 000 square miles, ~400 mile diagonal
Focus on Pennsylvania Public Domain Data, circa 2011.
Production statistics from 1078 wells(1).
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Rich Priem 2011 Regional Assessment Ohio Department of Natural Resources
Regional extent of Marcellus, with many historical Well penetrations.
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Basemap of Pennsylvania 1078 target wells reported as of 2011-Q2(1)
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Well Performance broad sampling: best wells in tighter clusters
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Rich Priem Probability of Success (Ps) Predicted from Statistical Analysis (PI>1)
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Multivariate Regression
Bayesian (boolean) Response Success/Failure at known wells
Production data normalized(3) to index (PI) Success defined as PI>1.0, or half the wells.
Input Measurements: 5 grids 1. Thickness of the Shale (H) 2. Structure Depth (D) 3. Pressure above Hydrostatic Gradient (OverP) 4. Maturity, from Vitrinite Reflectance (Ro) 5. Clay Content (Vclay)
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Thumbnails: 5 Input Grids
Disclaimer Coarse Public
Domain Maps(2)
Private Industry has access to more
maps, and higher fidelity to build & QC
a better model!!! Maturity
Depth
Vclay
Pressure
Thickness
Well Control Measurements from older wells drilled
below, but penetrate & sample the target.
Seismic Data High resolution surfaces from
interpretation of sonic imaging.
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Ps: Sweet Spot > 1/3
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Rich Priem Exploration Potential 5 miles from existing wells
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Counties Ranked for Leasing Visit courthouse, identify land owners for new drilling permits
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Future Potential: 44% open
Sum of Model Ps Split on Drilled Area DBF Excel Pivot Table
Result: 44% (374/850) Indication of remaining Exploration Potential Not representing ongoing Production in Drilled areas.
Other Economic Issues Well costs (depth) Lease Rates (hot)
Total 374,160 476,263 850,424County Open Drilled Total
Bradford 16,826 64,930 81,756Westmorelan 28,456 31,475 59,931Lycoming 26,809 28,519 55,327Fayette 29,613 22,402 52,015Tioga 18,842 30,786 49,628Clearfield 37,321 11,985 49,306Indiana 29,708 16,629 46,338Sullivan 39,090 3,995 43,085Clinton 21,984 18,675 40,659Susquehanna 9,090 26,068 35,158Washington 9,004 24,017 33,021Greene 2,950 26,734 29,685Somerset 8,348 17,264 25,612Wyoming 12,803 11,894 24,697Allegheny 11,255 10,608 21,863Potter 5,346 16,353 21,699Armstrong 5,437 15,987 21,424Centre 4,759 14,948 19,706Luzerne 14,459 1,106 15,565Cambria 3,904 11,078 14,982Columbia 9,665 3,829 13,494Cameron 7,640 5,337 12,978Monongalia 6,259 6,286 12,545Elk 1,879 9,131 11,011Preston 6,024 1,921 7,945Garrett 2,671 5,220 7,890
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Rich Priem Exploration Strategies Evolve through the Maturity of a Play
1. Wildcat Drilling Take a chance in unproven areas
2. Exploit proven areas Step out, but stick with what works
3. Conventional Wisdom Sweet spots defined by experienced interpreter
4. Play Fairway Analysis (Esri Suitability) Qualitative: digital overlay of several risk factors
5. Statistical Analysis: regression models Quantitative: calibrated to observed results
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Conventional Wisdom
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Conventional Wisdom
Geological Interpretation(3) Expert opinion from years of experience in the area! Fuzzy polygon (cartoon) with assumed criteria in mind
Thickness > 160 ft 1 < Maturity (Ro) < 3 Pressure > 0.45 psi/ft Vclay < 0.33
Play Fairway Analysis (Risk Model) Iterated on Cutoffs (more interpretation)
1. Mature: Ro > 1.5 good < 1.0 bad 2. Cooked: Ro < 2.5 good > 3.5 bad 3. Pressure: >3 good < 1.5 bad 4. Thickness: >200 good < 100 bad 5. Vclay: < 1.0 good > 2.0 bad Depth: not significant
Only relevant to economics: drilling costs
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Play Fairway Analysis Common Risk Segments (CRS) & Critical Risk Factors (CRF)
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Compare: 3 different views? Conventional Wisdom
Model Ps
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Automation Disclaimer: leveraged our Vendor products
Native ArcGIS Desktop Can handle above Workflow
Basic license + Spatial Analyst
Tedious & Complicated Experts only?
Petroleum Extension
The Priemere Power Tools www.Priemere.com/GIS
Common E&P Workflows Batch automation More Users?
Power Hardcopy PowerPoint slides, perfectly aligned!
Power Data Portal Import/Export: many formats Popular G&G Applications
Seismic & Well Interpretation
Power Grid Processor
Batch manipulation of grids Trap Finder: closure on grids
Power Attribute Maker Derive values from grids
Power Risk Optimizer Advanced suitability analysis
Power Cross-section Profiles When a Map is just not enough
Power Calibration Analysis Multivariate Regression
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Investigate NE Hotspot
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Investigate Cross-Section
1
2 3
4
5
6
7 High Graded
Critical Risk CRS
Score
Counties
Sweet Spot
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Statistical Modelling Process
1. Collect Data Results from initial exploration wells Grids of independent model parameters
2. Build preliminary Calibration Model Sensitivity analysis & QC Validation: test predictive capability
3. Forward Drilling Program Tactical: high probability locations Strategic: maximum impact on model portfolio
4. Iterate. . . Ever-Green . . . Update model with new results Revise drilling program
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Start with only 100 Wells
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Training Model with 1/11 Wells
Sort on Predicted Probability (Ps)
Up/Down Bar For each Well
Some Success in Bad areas
Some Failure in Good areas
All Significant
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Rich Priem Portfolio Management Prediction for 980 remaining target locations
Order by Ps
Selected Well
Running Average
Interactive!
High-grade at Ps=50 75% Success Rate
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Strategic Play Tests Inflection (closure) on uncertainty from model
1
4
2
3
8
7
6
5
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Rich Priem Testing Variable Properties Sensitivity to relative highs and lows
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Tactical: Hi-grading Portfolio
Tolerance (example) 50% success rate, from economic criteria Result: only drill Half the Portfolio!
Outcome: >70% effective 75% success rate in hi-graded locations 69% failure rate in undrilled Compare to 50% for full Portfolio
Next: Alternative Models Elephant Hunt: success is PI>2 Volume: predict with a normal linear model
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Elephant Hunt: PI>2Ps>30%: target 194 wells, 60% cum success rate
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Elephant Hunt: focus areas
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PI –vs- Thickness
Some anomalies to investigate?
Trem
endo
us V
aria
nce!
!!
Interrogate!
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Predicted Performance
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Summary
GIS is GREAT for GeoScience Complex spatial analysis on subsurface geology
Marcellus Forecast Identify & quantify untapped potential
Ideas for Exploration Usage Conventional Oil & Gas Unconventional Plays: shale, etc. Exploitation: step-out or infill drilling
Vendor Capabilities Much more that can & has been done
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Author: Rich Priem
Rich is a GIS Expert & GeoScience Consultant with degrees in Engineering, Mathematics, and Computer Science. He has been running the Priemere Consulting Group for more than a quarter century, with significant experience at Exxon and BP/Amoco. Over the past decade, he has been dedicated to evolving the Petroleum Extension for ArcGIS, with corporate licenses at many of the larger companies in the Exploration industry.
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Abstract
Focusing Opportunities by Modeling Probability of Success from Historical Well Results
By Rich Priem, Priemere GeoTechnology
This case study of a prominent geologic basin shows how both Lease and Prospect locations can be high graded using a GIS enabled database of historical well results to map Ps (probability of success) in conjunction with seismic interpretation or other regional maps
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Abstract Geodetic Assistant to Educate the ArcGIS User
By Rich Priem, Priemere GeoTechnology
How does the casual ArcGIS User avoid making basic positioning errors? The PUG User Community has heard doom and gloom, long and loud. And there are plenty of training classes offering PhD thesis in mathematics, for those that have the time and interest. But still, the majority of Users remain blissfully ill-informed, and routinely click CLOSE when receiving the “Geographic Coordinate System Warning”, or when attempting to select the appropriate Transformation from a long list of names that are all the same except for a simple integer suffix. The EPSG Registry provides much more extensive information, but who knows how to find, yet alone navigate through 538 different datums and 2065 associated transformations? Our solution is the Power Geodetic Assistant, which we currently offer as a free download from ArcGIS Online. This custom extension provides more extensive alerts when issues are identified, and an interactive form to review the options and make appropriate selections. Included is the ability to view attributes from the EPSG Registry for all relevant transformations, and flash the polygon representing the usage area for a specific transformation. Furthermore, there is an interactive list of layers that would be affected by the transformation, and detailed statistics to quantify the amount of shift that will occur. Finally, for those that still don’t have the stamina to investigate, there is an “Easy” button to apply our suggestion, determined from the intersection of the data with the usage polygons.
