Food and Agriculture in the 21st Century - farmdoc · 4/17/2019 · Food and Agriculture in the 21st Century Presented by Robert A. Easter, PhD., President Emeritus and Dr. Scott

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Food and Agriculture in the 21st CenturyPresented by Robert A. Easter, PhD., President Emeritus and Dr. Scott Irwin University of Illinois.

Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Sponsored by

Robert A. Easter, Ph.D.Professor Emeritus – Animal Sciences

Dean Emeritus – College of ACESPresident Emeritus, University of Illinois

Food and Agriculturein the 21st Century

Sponsored by

Can we produce enough food for the extra two billion people who will

join the world’s population by 2050?

POLL: Can we produce enough food for the extra two billion people who will join the world’s population by 2050?○ Yes○ No○ Yes, but only with significant use of new technologies○ Yes, but only with expansion of cultivated acreage○ May not be possible

This is not a new question!

“Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence

increases only in an arithmetical ratio.

A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in

comparison with the second.”

Thomas Malthus 1798An essay on the principle of population.

Thomas Robert Malthus.

Mezzotint by John Linnell, 1834.. Credit: Wellcome Collection

Source: W ikipedia

Malthus ExplainedQuantity

Time

Population

Production of Food

Malthusian Catastrophe

Causes

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Sponsored by

Beginning in the spring of 1315, cold weather and torrential rains decimated crops and livestock across Europe. Class warfare and political strife destabilized formerly prosperous countries as millions of people starved, setting the stage for the crises of the Late Middle Ages.

Christian Sofia Aaya. Piktochart Visual

www.history.com

Little Ice Age

Medieval Warm Period

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

Calendar Years (A.D.)1900180017001600150014001300120011001000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

200

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1400

1500

1600

1700

1760

1804

1850

1900

Population Growth Significantly Enabled by Advances in Food and Agriculture

Wor

ld P

opul

atio

n in

Mill

ions

http://www.worldometers.info

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

19511955

19591963

19671971

19751979

19831987

19911995

19992003

20072011

20152019

Urban Population

Rural Population

Popu

latio

n in

mill

ions

World Population55%

45%

30%

70%

http://www.worldometers.info

Famine is

Not a New Experience

(India circa 1950)

Source: W ikipedia.org

Around WWII Starvation Became a Global Issue• The atrocities of WWII had increased public sensitivity

to humanitarian issues

• Many in developed countries had experienced real privation during the great depression and had very personal understanding of the lack of adequate food

• Many who had fought in WWII understood the role of food in provoking political instability and committed to eradicating lack of food as a precursor to war.

• There was a sense of shared obligation among western democracies.

• Combating hunger was an instrument of “soft power” in the cold war.

The incredible increases seen in food production during the first half of the 20th century in the US and several other countries suggested that progress could actually be made.

Western democracies created a variety of institutions designed

to foster increased access to foodstuffs – primarily through

increased production.

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Sponsored by

Several Factors Dramatically Increased Food Production• Improved crop genetics

• Fertilizer – especially nitrogen

• Irrigation

• Mechanization and improved farming practices

• Increase in cultivated land

• Research and Education

Resulted in Great Increases in Food Production

Source: FAO

Yie

ld (

Bu

shel

/Acr

e)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

44.6

37.2

29.7

22.3

14.9

7.4

Wheat yields in developing countries, 1950 to 2004

The Green RevolutionNorman BorlaugIn 1970 Norman E. Borlaug was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for a lifetime of work to feed a hungry world. Although a scientist with outstanding contributions, perhaps Dr. Borlaug's greatest achievement has been his unending struggle to

integrate the various streams of agricultural research into viable technologies and to convince political leaders to bring these advances to fruition.

https://www.worldfoodprize.org/en/dr_norman_e_borlaug/about_norman_borlaug/

Global Food Price Protests and Riots in 2007 and 2008

Photo by Magharebiahttps://www.flickr.com/photos/magharebia/5352296368

Algeria slashes food prices amid riots January 7, 2011

The “Food” Crisis of 2008• No question – it was real• Many factors contributed:

– Drought– Population increase– Economic growth and dietary change– Lack of investment in science and development– Government export policies– Biofuel usage

Increases in Food Price Index Correlates with Social Unrest

M. Lagi, K. Z. Bertrand and Y. Bar-Yam. 2011. The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. New England Complex Systems Institute

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Sponsored by

All indications

are that the

human population

will continue to grow for at

least another

30 years 2

4

6

8

12

14

16

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 20901960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

Popu

latio

n (B

illio

ns)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017)

Estimates Range from 700 to 950 million people in the world go hungry every day

mostly these live in developing countriesPhoto by Walmart

https://www.flickr.com/photos/walmartcorporate/5349385932/

2

4

6

8

Popu

latio

n (B

illio

ns)

1

3

5

7

9

0Source: United Nations

Well over half of the world’s population will live in cities

Ten

Largest Cities in

the World

Rank City Country Population (Metro)1 Tokyo Japan 38,001,0002 Delhi India 25,703,1683 Shanghai China 23,740,7784 Sao Paulo Brazil 21,066,2455 Mumbai India 21,042,5386 Mexico City Mexico 20,998,5437 Beijing China 20,237,6458 Osaka Japan 18,771,7699 Cairo Egypt 18,771,76910 New York United States 18,593,22038 Chicago United States 8,744,835

Source: www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm (Oct. 2018)

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Sponsored by

Globalization of Food Systems

“In 1950 food production, for most of the world,

was a local activity, today it is a global

enterprise”

It is estimated that

about 50% of fresh fruit

and 20% of our vegetables

are imported

www.foodsafety.gov

Four things that must be done:• Produce more

And, this is the focus of most conversations………

Four things that must be done:• Produce more• Prevent loss of

that which is produced

It is estimated that 30% of all food produced is lost between

harvest and the consumer

Source: Personal Photo – Central China Source: North India Post

Personal PhotoHeilongzhang Prov.

Grain dryer

UI-ADM Institute for the Prevention of Post-Harvest Loss – Bihar Province, India

Bihar Province, India

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Sponsored by

Food Storage

Specialized Bags Family Food Storage

Four things that must be done:• Produce more• Prevent loss of that which is produced• Increase efficiency animal production

There will be more people

Year Population2014 7.2 b

2050 9.1 b

Source: United Nations

26%

….Around the world food consumption patterns are changing

ChinaBrazil

Mexico

Indonesia Nigeria

PakistanIndia

Source: www.Wikipedia.org

Global Expansionof Animal-based Food Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2025

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

Year

Developing countries

Developed countries

Source: USDA. Major Factors Affecting Global Soybean and Products Trade. May 02, 2016

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Sponsored by

Percentage Change in Food Consumption1990 to 2005

Type India China BrazilCereals 0 -20 120

Oil crops 70 140 10Meat 20 140 70Milk 20 200 20Fish 20 130 -10

Fruits 30 250 -20Vegetables 30 190 30

(FAO, 2007)

World Poultry Global Supply and Use (Base Year 2018)

100105110115120125130135140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Production

www.ers.used.gov/data-products/international-baseline-data

Usemill

ion

met

ric to

ns

World Pork Global Supply and Use(Base Year 2018)

100105110115120125130135140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

mill

ion

met

ric to

ns

Production

Use

www.ers.used.gov/data-products/international-baseline-data

World Soybean Crop Global Supply and Use(Base Year 2018)

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 2021/22 2023/24 2025/26 2027/28

mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s Production

Usewww.ers.used.gov/data-products/international-baseline-data

11.58 million tons/year annual estimated increase

in global production

“Planetary boundaries - a concept involving earth system processes which contain environmental boundaries….” Wikipedia

Realistically, can the earth sustainably produce twice the current tonnage

of soybeans?

Alternative Proteins (plant-based)

Ingredients: Water, Mung Bean Protein Isolate, Expeller-Pressed Canola Oil, Contains less than 2% of Calcium Citrate, Enzyme, Gellan Gum, Natural Carrot Extractives (color), Natural Flavors, Natural Turmeric Extractives (color), Onion Puree, Salt, Soy Lecithin, Sugar, Tetrasodium Pyrophosphate, Preservatives (Nisin, Potassium Sorbate).

www.justforall.com

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Sponsored by

Four things that must be done:• Produce more• Prevent loss of that which is produced

• Increase efficiency of animal production• Protect the capacity to produce

Resource ConservationWhy?

Water• Water is a transparent, tasteless, odorless and

nearly colorless chemical substance…• It is vital to all forms of life• Water covers 71% of the earth’s surface• 96.5% of the earth’s water

is in the oceans and seas• Only 2.5% of this is fresh water Source: Wikipedia

Please allow a personal story….

Crystal CityArtesia Wells

Big WellsCarrizo Springs

The Winter Garden

About 1910

Life was good!

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Sponsored by

Bob, About 1954 Same place National News 2009

Major Aquifers of Texas

Depleted

India - 2015

Water

Personal Photo – Northern India, April 2015

Status of Underground Water Resources In India• If current trends continue, in 20 years about 60% of

all India’s aquifers will be in a critical condition.• India is the largest user of groundwater in the world -

over a quarter of the global total.• More than 60% of irrigated agriculture and 85% of

drinking water supplies are dependent on groundwater.

Source: World Bank. 2012

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Sponsored by

Water could become the most limiting factor• Competition between cities and food production for

available water• Depletion of underground aquifers through pumping• Loss of reservoir storage capacity through siltation• Contamination of water through various means

• Need to expand crop production into arid lands

Arsenic in Groundwater Poses Ongoing Challengeby R. Andres Sanchez, WRRC Graduate Outreach Assistant

Conserve the Soil

Source: Personal photo

“Soil health - the continued capacity of soil to function as a vital living ecosystem that sustains plants, animals, and humans.”Source:www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/soils/health/

Heavy Metal Contamination of Chinese Soil

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0135182

Soil Contamination is a Growing Problem Worldwide

Affected Grain Production %

0.00 to 0.500.51 to 1.001.01 to 1.501.51 to 2.002.01 to 3.00No Data

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Sponsored by

Potential Challenges• Lack of innovation• Political/financial instability/social license• National policies that impact land use,

employment of technology or good infrastructure• Biological limitations • Unanticipated plant disease• Climate change

I’m Optimistic!

Oh, to be 30 again!

Thank You!

Robert A. Easter, Ph.D.farmdocdaily.Illinois.edu

Documents

Food and Agriculture in the 21st Century - farmdoc · 4/17/2019 · Food and Agriculture in the 21st Century Presented by Robert A. Easter, PhD., President Emeritus and Dr. Scott