Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

Northwest

Gu 2011

17 August , 2011

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and

CooperationSDC

Information for Better Livelihoods

Field staff had normal access to all livelihoods in the Northwest regions in Gu 2011 Assessment

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agro-pastoral) Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: are more pastoral, however there is an

increasing dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales; Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase

Northwest (W/Galbeed and Awdal) Agro-pastoral: are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase.

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of

livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase

and own production Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,

sheep/goat

Overall Statement: Localized normal rains impacting positively rangeland and water resources in most livelihoods of the regions.

Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011 )• Start of Season: Started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in

most parts of the Northwest zone, and were intermittent in May and June

• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall was average to poor in most livelihoods of EastGoils, Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer, Sanag and Sool regions). Regions with some dry spells: Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer and parts of West Golis of Awdal and W/Galbeed

• Normal rains in livelihood zones: Most livelihoods received localized normal rains ( 100-125mm)

• Below normal rains in livelihood zones: West Sool Plateau, western upper Nugal, central Nugal Valley and southwestern part of Hawd of Togdheer (40-60mm)

• Generally, pasture and water conditions are average in most livelihoods

ClimateGu 2011 Seasonal Performance

Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

ClimateVegetation Conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security Situation: Overall the security situation in the Northwest Zone remains stable.

Lasanod town: Tensions with increasing instability and targeting killings of prominent figures. Kalshaale and Ceel Berdaale issues of land resources are diffused and peace efforts are ongoing

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

Restricted movement of transport from Burao to Buhoodle areas.

Civil Insecurity

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

AgricultureCereal Production

Gu-Karan Cereal Establishment Estimates (North-West)

Regions

Gu/Karan 2011 Production in MT

Gu-Karan 2011 as % of Gu-Karan 2010

Gu-Karan 2011 as % of Gu-Karan PWA

(1998-2010)

Gu-Karan 2011 as % of 5 year average(2006-2010)

Maize Sorghum Total Cereal

Awdal 210 3,550 3,760 92% 122% 124%

Togdheer 20 320 340 10% 44% 28%

Woqooyi Galbeed

420 12,800 13,220 33% 81% 63%

TOTAL

650 16,670 17,320 36% 86% 68%

Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan 2011 Crop Establishment Estimates

Gu 2011 Local Cereal inflow from

Ethiopia

Agriculture

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices

(Sorghum)

- Increasing Trend

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal

to Labor

9kg of white sorghum/daily wage) in Jul ’11 versus 12kg in Jul ’10

- Decreasing Trend

Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum)

- Increasing Trend

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal

to Labor

Kg of sorghum/daily wage)

From 10kg in June’10 to 8kg in June’11

- Decreasing Trend

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Hargeysa

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ’11

Livestock

Average performance of Gu 2011 season in most pastoral livelihoods resulted normal pasture and water availability.

Average livestock body conditions for all species

Below average milk production due to low camel calving (high camel abortion in March 30-40%) and moderate increase in milk price (10%) since June 2010

Opportunistic livestock migration (parts of Golis, Sool and Hawd

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Livelihoods Conception (Gu ’11)

Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11)

Milk production (Gu ‘11)

Expected calving/ Kidding

Jul – Dec ‘11

Trends in Herd Size (% of baseline as of Dec ‘11)

Northwest Hawd Pastoral Camel: Low to MediumSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low

Below average Camel: LowSh/goat: Medium to Low

Togdheer and Sool Camel: increased same as baselineTogdheer and Sool : Sh/goats: Decrease below baseline W/galbeed: Camel: Increased above baselineW/galbeed : Sh/goats; increased above baseline

E.Golis/Gabi Pastoral

Camel: Low to MediumSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low to Medium

Below average Camel: LowSh/goat: Medium

Camel: increased above baselineSh/goats: Decreased below baseline

West Golis/Guban Camel: MediumSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Low Sh/goat: Medium

Below average Camel: MediumSh/goat: Medium

Camel: increased above baseline Sh/goats: increased as baseline

Sool Pastoral Camel: Low to MediumSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low

Below average Camel: LowSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Insignificant for Poor HHsSh/goats: Decreased below baseline

Nugaal Valley Pastoral

Camel: MediumSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low Below average

Camel: LowSh/goat: Medium

Camel: Insignificant for Poor HHsSh/goats: decreased below baseline

Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao

Livestock

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat (Rice kg/head)

- Decreasing Trend

LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo

Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of

Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality

- Declining Trend

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate

Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months)

Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices:

•Appreciation of SLSh

•Increased global food prices

• Increased fuel prices

• Increased transit of imported commodities to neighboring Ethiopia

•Traders reluctant to reduce imported food prices respective to decline of US Dollar

Markets

LivestockTrends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos

Livestock

Livestock Carcass-Nugaal Ainabo, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor Pasture –Hawd Togdheer, FSNAU, July 2011

Good body & pasture condition, Hawd Harg, FSNAU July 2011

Poor Pasture –Nugal Valley,-Xudun, FSNAU July 2011

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos

Good Sorghum- Beer Village –Togdheer-FSNAU, July 2011

Destitute HHs in Garadag- Nugaal Valley, FSNAU, July 2011

Poor pasture –Sool Plateau, Ceerigabo, FSNAU, July 2011

Livestock

Summary of Nutrition Findings in NW Regions (Somaliland)Region Nutrition Surveys

(May– July 11)Health

Information System Info

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Deyr ’10/11

NW

West Golis/Guban

GAM =22.0% ; SAM =5.0% .Nugal ValleyGAM=23.2% ; SAM= 6.7%

Sool PlateauGAM= 15.9% ; SAM= 4.0%

East GolisGAM= 12.8% ; SAM= 2.1%

NW Agro-pastoralGAM= 11.5% ; SAM= 0.6%

Hawd of Hargeisa & TogdheerGAM= 6.2% ; SAM= 0.3% (FSNAU & partners, July11 R=1)

Burao IDPGAM=19.1% ; SAM= 5.6%

Hargeisa IDPGAM=10.9% ; SAM= 2.2%

Berbera IDPGAM=14.5% ; SAM= 3.0%(FSNAU & partners, May1 R=1)

HIS data show mixed trends across livelihoods with high (15-20%) and increasing or fluctuating proportion of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in West Golis/ Guban, Sool and Nugal livelihoods; Low (<10%) and decreasing or stable trends in East Golis, Hawd and Agro-pastoral livelihoods( Source: SRCS , MOH, HIS Data , January- July11 R=3)

OTP admission show mixed trends, in the number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP –with high and fluctuating numbers in facilities in West Golis/ Guban, Nugal, and Sool livelihoods; And low and decreasing numbers in facilities in East Golis, Hawd and Agro-pastoral, livelihoods ( Source: MOH, Data , January- July11 R=3)

Aggravating factors-High morbidity – 20%-45% reportedly ill two weeks prior to assessment in all livelihoods with exception of Agra-pastoral (19.3%)- AWD,measles dengue fever outbreak in Sanag & W. Galbeed-Limited milk access due to low livestock production and drought-related out-migration of livestock-Limited humanitarian assistance-Poor child feeding practice and health seeking behaviors-Poor access to safe water, health and sanitation facilities-Increasing food prices-Increased destitution

Mitigating factors-Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health & feeding facilities, WASH)-Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of June 2011-Improved milk access in Hawd (in-migrating livestock & local)Strong social support

West Golis/Guban and Nugal Valley

Very Critical- deteriorated from Serious in Deyr ’10/11

Sool PlateauCritical – deteriorated from Alert in Deyr ’10/11

East Golis and NW Agro-pastoralSerious – No change from Deyr ’10/11

Hawd PastoralAlert – Improved from Serious in Deyr ’10/11

Hargeisa and Berbera IDPSerious- No change from Deyr ‘10/11

Burao IDPCritical- Deteriorated from Serious in Deyr ’10/11

NorthwestNutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011

Aggravating factors: Limited milk availability in most of the pastoral LHZs due to poor conceptions in Deyr 2010 High morbidity - outbreak of measles and dengue fever and increased incidences of diarrhoea

in pastoral LHZs Inappropriate child feeding and care practices across livelihood Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs Lack of seasonal labour opportunities among the IDPs and reduced purchasing power affecting

food accessMitigating factors:

Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH) Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of June/July 2011 Improved milk access in Hawd of W. Galbeed

Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011

NORTHWESTSummary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference OutcomesUrban Population: Sool 100% P AFLC; Sanaag 75% P AFLC, 25%P HE, 25% M AFLCRural Population: Hawd (Togdheer and Sool) -100%P AFLC; Hawd (Hargeisa) -BFI; Sool Plateau -75% P HE, 25% P AFLC; Nugaal Valley -50%P HE ; 50% P AFLC; East Golis -100% P AFLC; Togdheer AP - BFI; Northwest Agropastoral -BFI; West Golis Guban-BFI

• Acute malnutrition: Mixed trends with most livelihoods showing significant deterioration while others indicating either sustained or improved situtaion. West Golis and Nugal Valley livelihoods has significantly deteriorated from Serious to Very Critical levels while Sool Plateau has declined from Serious to Critical

• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day• Water Access: Average of 7.5-15 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only)• Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with

increasing pastoral destitution in mainly in Nugaal valley• Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water

expenses during prolonged Jilaal season• Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access

Main Contributing Factors:• Below normal rainfall in East-Golis, parts of Sool Plateau and Nugal valley• Livestock death in Hawd (Togdheer, Sool regions) , Nugal valley, Sool Plateau

and East-Golis and considerably reduced livestock holding among the poor• Sales of breeding animals among the poor HHs (Nugal, Sool, Hawd of

Togdheer) due to lack of saleable animals• Poor milk production (camel) in all pastoral areas of Togdheer, Sool and

Sanaag regions as a result of high rate of miscarriages during harsh Jilaal season

• Reduced household income from livestock and livestock product (milk) sales• Decline in terms of trade of local goat/cereals (119kg/head in June 2010 to

58kg in June 2011)

MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

NORTHWESTRural Population in Crisis by Livelihoods

NW Region Affected Livelihood ZonesEstimated Population of Affected Livelihood

Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HEDeyr 2010/11 GU 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

AwdalNW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 76,159 0 0 0 0Fishing 1,149 0 0 0 0Golis Pastoral 74,592 0 0 0 0Guban Pastoral 42,612 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 194,513 0 0 0 0Woqooyi GalbeedFishing 1,437 0 0 0 0Golis Pastoral 67,455 0 0 0 0Hawd Pastoral 70,830 0 0 0 0NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle 70,191 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 209,913 0 0 0 0TogdheerGolis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 23,698 0 0 0 0Hawd Pastoral 223,347 14,000 0 57,000 0Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 11,984 2,000 0 2,000 2,000Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 19,864 0 0 0 0

Sub-total 278,893 16,000 0 59,000 2,000SanaagFishing 15,193 0 0 0 0Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 56,596 8,000 0 20,000 0Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 30,415 4,000 0 8,000 0Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 37,396 3,000 0 6,000 6,000Potato Zone & Vegetables 7,052 0 0 0 0Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 61,347 10,000 10,000 5,000 15,000Destitute pastoralists 6,289 0 6,000 0 6,000

Sub-total 214,288 25,000 16,000 39,000 27,000SoolHawd Pastoral 30,108 2,000 0 8,000 0Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 72,608 5,000 0 10,000 11,000Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 7,697 2,000 1,000 1,000 2,000Destitute pastoralists 730 0 1,000 0 1,000

Sub-total 111,143 9,000 2,000 19,000 14,000GRAND TOTAL 1,008,750 50,000 18,000 117,000 43,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 68,000 160,00

NORTHWESTRural Population in Crisis by Districts

NW Regions Affected Districts

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE  Deyr 2010/11 GU 2011  

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)  

Awdal  Baki 16,923 0 0 0 0  Borama 132,695 0 0 0 0  Lughaye 22,094 0 0 0 0  Zeylac 22,801 0 0 0 0  

Sub-total 194,513 0 0 0 0  Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 18,683 0 0 0 0  Gebiley 53,717 0 0 0 0  Hargeysa 137,513 0 0 0 0  

Sub-total 209,913 0 0 0 0  Togdheer Burco 191,748 12,000 0 45,000 2,000  Buuhoodle 28,821 2,000 0 7,000 0  Owdweyne 30,924 2,000 0 7,000 0  Sheikh 27,400 0 0 0 0  

Sub-total 278,893 16,000 0 59,000 2,000  SanaagCeel Afweyn 53,638 5,000 1,000 12,000 5,000  Ceerigaabo 83,748 6,000 4,000 15,000 7,000  Laasqoray/Badhan 76,902 14,000 11,000 12,000 15,000  

Sub-total 214,288 25,000 16,000 39,000 27,000  SoolCaynabo 24,026 2,000 0 4,000 3,000  Laas Caanood 50,606 4,000 0 10,000 4,000  Taleex 20,983 2,000 1,000 3,000 4,000  Xudun 15,528 1,000 1,000 2,000 3,000  

Sub-total 111,143 9,000 2,000 19,000 14,000  Grand Total 1,008,750 50,000 18,000 117,000 43,000  

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 68,000 160,000  

NORTHWESTUrban Population in Crisis

DistrictUNDP 2005 Total

Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian

Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban

population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban

population

Awdal Baki 25,500 8,577 0 0 0 0 0 0

Borama 215,616 82,921 0 0 0 0 0 0Lughaye 36,104 14,010 0 0 0 0 0 0Zeylac 28,235 5,434 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sub-Total 305,455 110,942 0 0 0 0 0 0Woqooyi Galbeed

Berbera 60,753 42,070 0 0 0 0 0 0Gebiley 79,564 25,847 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hargeysa 560,028 422,515 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Total 700,345 490,432 0 0 0 0 0 0

Togdheer Burco 288,211 96,463 0 0 0 0 0 0

Buuhoodle 38,428 9,607 0 0 0 0 0 0Owdweyne 42,031 11,107 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sheikh 33,625 6,225 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Total 402,295 123,402 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sanaag Badhan 55,000 7,322 2,000 2,000 55 3,000 1,000 55

Ceel Afweyn 65,797 12,159 4,000 3,000 58 5,000 1,000 49Ceerigaabo 114,846 31,098 10,000 7,000 55 13,000 3,000 51Laasqoray 34,724 5,500 2,000 1,000 55 2,000 1,000 55

Sub-Total 270,367 56,079 18,000 13,000 55 23,000 6,000 52Sool

Caynabo 30,702 6,676 3,000 0 45 3,000 0 45Laas Caanood 75,436 24,830 12,000 0 48 12,000 0 48

Taleex 25,354 4,371 2,000 0 46 2,000 0 46Xudun 18,785 3,257 2,000 0 61 2,000 0 61

Sub-Total 150,277 39,134 19,000 0 49 19,000 0 49Grand Total 1,828,739 819,989 37,000 13,000 6 42,000 6,000 6

The End