for

by

Aalborg University David ConnollyBrian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg ØstergaardBernd MöllerSteffen NielsenHenrik Lund

Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonDaniel NilssonSven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbHJan GrözingerThosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet

PlanEnergiDaniel Trier

STUDY FOR THE EU27

Heat Roadmap Europe 2050

Presented by: name

Why this study?

the heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all European Commission scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2030 and 2050.

This study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, and a smarter energy system.

The EU is wasting energy

(heat)…

Primary Energy Supply

Final Consumption End Use0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Non-specifiedNon-energy useTransportElectricityHeat for IndustryHeat for Buildings

Ener

gy B

alan

ce fo

r the

EU2

7 in

201

0 (E

J)

… and over 6000 DHsystems already exist in the

EU

The study

Two Reports:

HRE I (2012): Is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenario?

HRE II (2013): Is DHC beneficial in a low-heat demand scenario?

Methology

GIS Mapping

District Heating Demands

District Heating Resources

Energy System

BAU (References)

District Heating Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermal

the study indicates that the market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.

Many Energy Sources

Energy System Analyse Model

CHP

Boiler

Electro-lyser

Heatpump and

electric boiler

PP

RES electricity

Fuel

RES heat

Hydro waterHydro

storageHydro

power plant

H2 storage

Electricity storagesystem

Import/Export

fixed and variable

Electricitydemand

Cooling device

Coolingdemand

Transport demand

Processheat

demandIndustry

Cars

Heat storage

Heat demand

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

HRE I (2012)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a business-as-usual scenario?

HRE I (2012)

Year 2030 & 2050:

Steps 1 & 2

EU Energy Roadmap

2050

2010Present 12% DH

203030% DH &

RE

205050% DH &

REIEA HRE

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

District Heating Production for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

BoilerSolar thermalGeothermal heatHeat pumpsWaste incinerationIndustrial surplus heatAdditional CHPExisting CHP

Dist

rict H

eatin

g Pr

oduc

tion

(TW

h)

IEA12% DH

EP CPI10% DH

HRE30% DHwith RE

EP CPI10% DH

HRE50% DHwith RE

2010 2030 2050

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

-1000100200300400500600700

Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

EP CPI vs. HRE RE

Existing CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2 Emission

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

CO2

Emiss

ions

(Mt)

HRE I (2012)

Cost and Jobs

Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050

In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050

Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR

Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total

Approx. 220,000 jobs.

IEA EP CPI HRE RE EP CPI HRE RE2010 2030 2050

020406080

100120140

Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

Fuel Fixed operation costsAnnual investment costs

Annu

al H

eatin

g Bu

ildin

g Co

sts (

Billi

on

Euro

)

HRE I (2012)

HRE I Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP

Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions

Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050

Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050

Further integration of RES

LESS FUEL

LESS MONEY

MORE EU JOBS

MORE RE

HRE I (2012)

HRE II (2013)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a low-heat demand scenario?

Is DHC a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?

HRE II (2013)

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

IndustryWasteGeothermalSolarHeat PumpsBoilerCHP

Dist

rict H

eatin

g Su

pply

for R

esid

entia

l and

Se

rvic

es B

uild

ings

(TW

h/ye

ar)

HRE II (2013)

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE: Primary Energy Supply

& CO2

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(30% DH)

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(50% DH)

2030 2050

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (T

Wh/

year

)

Carb

on D

ioxi

de E

miss

ions

(X, M

t/ye

ar)

HRE II (2013)

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:Heat & Cooling Costs -

15%

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(30% DH)

EU-EE(13% DH)

HRE-EE(50% DH)

2030 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System InvestmentsCooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat PlantsFuel CO2

Tota

l Cos

ts fo

r Hea

ting

and

Cool

ing

in th

e Re

side

ntial

and

Ser

vice

s Sec

tors

(B€/

year

)

HRE II (2013)

Renewables and Energy Efficiency

Additional Renewables 100 TWh Geothermal 100 TWh large-scale solar 65 TWh wind (due to a

smarter energy system)Context: 2050 total

heat is 2600 TWh

Energy Efficiency Demand side is extremely

important, but eventually it will become expensive

Supply side also has many options: PP converted to CHP 100 TWh surplus industrial

heat 200 TWh heat from waste

incineration

HRE II (2013)

Main Conclusions

District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density

District heating can be compatible and competitive with energy efficiency measures

Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating at lower cost

HRE I Conclusions

If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can:Reduce the PESReduce the CO2 emissionsReduce the costs of the

energy systemCreation of local jobsUse more renewable energy

HRE II Conclusions

If we implement ambitious energy efficiency measures, then district heating will:Meet the same goals:

Utilise the same amount of fossil fuelsEnable the same CO2 emission

reductionsBUT, Cost approximately 15% less

HRE III

HRE III - 20??Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ???

scenario?RESEARCH TO BE CONTINUED…

Develop national plans that connect the local (mapping) and EU (modelling) results.

Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload electricity and developing more smart energy system technologies

Create an electric heating scenario for the EU27

Thank you

Need a copy of the report? www.heatroadmap.eu