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Mark Lien LC, CLEP, CLMC, HBDP
LEED Accredited Professional BD&C
Houston - February 16, 2016
Forces of ChangeLED’s-Whats Next?
The Truth
“Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free”- John 8:32
“The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off” – Gloria Steinham
Exponential Growth
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
ce, 2
01
4 $
Year
60W Equivalent LED Lamp 800 lumens, 80 CRI
CSL
8.5 W
9.5 W
10.5 W
11 W
Future LED Pricing Projection
“As shown, prices declined at an annual rate of 28-44% during the time period sampled. If these trends were to
continue uninterrupted, prices for LED A lamps in all lumen bins would fall to one dollar by the early 2020s. “
http://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/the-evolving-price-of-household-led-l
60W LED Replacement 99 cents
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Lowe%27s+Black+Friday+Ad+2015&view=detailv2&&id=09968ABCDD0D5A048E6B6053426EFE887E45ED62&selectedIndex=0&ccid=ekYEWZ8D&simid=608002451827198589&thid=OIP.M7a4604599f034dee85efef448d3e32c0o0&ajaxhist=0
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/world-s-most-affordable-wi-fi-smart-bulb#/
The 6 D’s
Hallmarks of Exponential Growth
1. Digitalization
2. Deception
3. Disruption
4. Demonetization
5. Dematerialization
6. Democratization
Deception
9
LED Lighting
10
Lighting Community Disrupted
11
•Maintenance companies •Legacy lamp, socket & ballast mfgs. •Lighting showrooms•Electrical distributors•Utilities (including DLC & CEE)•Manufacturers reps•Luminaire manufacturers •Educators…
2013-2015 IES Progress Report
No Progress on Traditional Fixtures and Sources
No Ordinary Disruption
1. Shifting of economic markets to emerging markets like China and the cities in those markets.
In 2000, 95% of Fortune 500 companies (including Shell, Coca-Cola, IBM & Nestle) had their headquarters in developed economies. By 2025, 50% will be in emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and the Middle-East.
13
Lifespan of firms in the S&P 500
Hello…
e-bayNETFLIXWhole FoodsAmazonGoogleComcastE*Tradeetc.
Goodbye…
Eastman KodakPalmNew York TimesSearsComp USACircuit CityRadio ShackEtc.
Babson School of business projects that 10 years from now 40% of today’s S&P 500 will not exist. By 2020 more than 100 will be companies that we have not heard of yet.
http://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2014/JUN/IHS_190614.shtml
No Ordinary Disruption
2. The acceleration of the scope and scale of technology. The steam engine and printing press brought
significant change. The difference now is the ubiquitious nature and speed of change. 20 years ago less than 3% of the worlds population had a mobile phone and less than 1% were on the internet. Today 2/3rds of the global population has access to a mobile phone and 1/3 communicate on the internet. Businesses can start and grow quickly with little capital. 16
“Adoption of Light-Emitting Diodes in Common Lighting Applications”
Above table from DOE/Navigant July 2014 Report
While adoption growth rates have been very impressive in the last two years, SSL market shares remain modest. From 2012 to 2014, LED
installations increased in all applications, more than quadrupling to 215 million units overall. Market penetration climbed to 3% overall, versus less than 1% in
2012.
Outdoor LED applications enjoyed a 10% share of the 2014 market. In
contrast, LEDs earned only a 2.8% share across indoor applications. In terms of
units, however, indoor lighting represents a significantly larger market than outdoor lighting.
DOE SSL Postings 7-23-15
No Ordinary Disruption
3. Population is living longer with the aging percentages already evident in developing economies.
For the first time in human history population could plateau. By 2013 60% of countries had birthrates below the replacement rate. The EU predicts by 2060 Germany’ population will shrink by 1/5th and the number of people of working age will fall from 54M in 2010 to 36M in 2060.
18
No Ordinary Disruption
4. Our world is much more connected through trade, movement of capital, people and information flows. There will be unanticipated convergent consequences.
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Convergence
“The merging of distinct technologies, industries, or devices into a unified whole”
Energy Crisis
SSL Sources
Wireless technologies
GlobalizationRenewable Energy & Storage
Miniaturization
Sensors
Intuition
The assumptions that made us effective and successful in this world, the experience and ideas that are the foundation of our intuition are less or irrelevant in this rapidly changing environment.
Forecasters are often caught unaware. Our intuition has been formed by how things work and how they are supposed to work. Changes were incremental and somewhat predictable. We need to rethink assumptions that drive decisions on labor, resources, consumption, capital and competition.
Reset, augment and adapt your intuition to these changes to face the future.
21
“Lighting companies understand illumination and see the socket as their pathway to new markets and services revenue – but they don't really understand sensing, wireless communications, or the Internet of Things. Communications and internet companies (think Cisco, Qualcomm and Google, among many others), don't really understand lighting, but want the socket for collecting data and providing new services to a wide variety of information consumers.”
http://www.tedmag.com/News/features/Illumigeddon-and-the-New-Age-of-Lighting-Distribution.aspx
— Bob Karlicek, Smart Lighting Engineering Research Center
The Future of Lighting Will Be Shaped By…
• Energy Costs
• Standards & Regulations
• Current Trends
• Changes in Technologies
24
Forces of Change-Renewables
• PV now equal to or less than the cost of electricity from other sources in 79 countries
• More solar installations in last 18 months in US than last 30 years.
• By 2020 more than 80% of the worlds people will live where solar will be competitive with fossil fuel sources
• In US, 166 coal plants closed (or announced) in 4.5 yrs
Standards & Regulations
• Energy Standards / Codes / CEC
• DOE Rulemakings
• TM-30
• EPAct Tax Extenders for 179D
Initiated by a federal agency
Analysis of • Energy Savings• Technological
feasibility• Cost Effectiveness
Series of public notices and workshops
Final Rule Federal Regulation
Bill introduced in committee
Approved by committee
Signed by President
Law
Approved by chamber
Bill introduced in committee
Approved by committee
Approved by chamber
House
Senate
Initiated by public or code committee
Analysis of • Energy Savings• Technological
feasibility• Cost Effectiveness
Series of public comment periods
Final Standard
~ 5-6 year process
~ 1-4 year process
3 year process
Regulation
Legislation
Code
28
• General Service Lamps
• If the Secretary fails to complete a rulemaking in accordance with clauses (i) through (iv) or if thefinal rule does not produce savings that are greater than or equal to the savings from aminimum efficacy standard of 45 lumens per watt, effective beginning January 1, 2020, theSecretary shall prohibit the sale of any general service lamp that does not meet a minimumefficacy standard of 45 lumens per watt.
• DOE published the NOPR on Friday February 12, 2016 (60W Equiv approx. 94lpw)
• DOE projects the publication of the Final Rule to be December 2016
• DOE projects the compliance date to be December 2019
29
Trends in Lighting Legislation & Regulation - DOE Rulemakings
http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/1/10881762/ge-phasing-out-cfl-in-favor-of-led-light-bulbs
GSFL – IRL Rule
EERE-2011-BT-STD-0006
The Final Rule published January 26, 2015
• DOE concluded that amending energy conservationstandards for IRLs would not be economically justified
• DOE concluded that amending energy conservationstandards for GSFLs would result in significantconservation of energy, and are technologically feasibleand economically justified
• The compliance date is January 26, 2018
This Technical Memorandum describes a method for evaluating light source color
rendition that takes an objective and statistical approach, quantifying the fidelity
(closeness to a reference) and gamut (increase or decrease in chroma) of a light
source. The method also generates a color vector graphic that indicates average
hue and chroma shifts, and which helps with interpreting the values of Rf and Rg.
TM-30-15 provides equations and direction for calculating Rf and Rg, including the
spectral reflectance functions for the 99 CES. It is accompanied by a software tool
to aid in calculation and display of the results (access information for the software
tool is provided in the publication).
IES TM-30
http://www.edisonreport.tv/#!TM-30-Color-Metric/ijpu9/568bf3470cf23ef0cf5e0533
EPAct Tax Extension
Trends & Technologies
• Convergence
• Disintermediation
• Smart Everything (products, homes, cities, grid)/IoT
• Controls (integration, miniaturization, cost red.)
• New Sources (SSL but not just LED)
Exponential IoT Growth
• In 2005, 500 million devices were connected to the internet
• In 2015 we have 8 billion devices connected
• In 2025 we are projected to have 50 billion devices connected
• In 2035 the projection is for 1 trillion devices to be connected
• We are 1% of the way into this transformation
36
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http://wifi-hacker.org/
“in short, it scans for available wireless networks in your range, it contacts them, after the contact is established, it receives packets, after the packets are received, it decrypts the packets, meaning it gets the password with tool built within our application. Some wireless networks can be hacked in few moments, some can take few minutes, or hardly ever hours”
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/2016/01/25/biometrics-latest-shield-against-password-hacks/79287634/
Thankfully, there does seem to be progress occurring on several different fronts. At last week’s unveiling of Intel’s latest 6th generation Core CPUs for business PCs, for example, the company talked about its new Authenticate technology. Authenticate can allow companies that use these PCs to store biometric data — such as information generated by fingerprint scanners or, eventually, facial recognition software or iris scanners — and other login credentials in encrypted form, directly into the PC’s CPU, making it much more difficult for hackers to get in.
It will allow connected devices from different manufacturers to communicate and compete with AllJoyn standard, led by Qualcomm, Microsoft and LG.
“Good thing about IoT is that your devices are
really easy to access and the bad thing about IoT
is that your devices are really easy to access”
Microsoft thinks” lighting will become the backbone (IoT) on which everything else will
be built”
Intel calls lighting “prime real estate”. Google adds “and there will be a land grab”
SSLIntegration
Normal people believe that if it ain'tbroke, don't fix it. Power electronics engineers believe that if it ain't broke, it doesn't have enough features yet.
Human Centric Convergence
41http://www.apa.org/monitor/2016/01/enlightened-minds.aspx
42http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/apple-tests-night-shift-feature-iphones-36283651
http://luxreview.com/article/2016/01/apple-move-acknowledges-blue-light-hazard-?cmpid=LUXproducts01282016
Apple's addition of a blue-light reduction feature into an update to its operating system is the first acknowledgement by a major manufacturer that blue light can be a health hazard.
The latest update of its operating system, iOS9.3, includes a night-time screen mode with reduced intensity in the blue part of the visible spectrum. The move will be seen as an endorsement of those who have been arguing that the health issues of blue light need to be addressed by industry.
http://www.statnews.com/2016/02/08/light-flashes-sleep-body-clock/
The simple days of sleeping at sunset are over, says a Stanford researcher trying to hack our sleeping patterns
In previous work, Zeitzer had demonstrated that he could modify individuals’ internal clocks by flashing light on their closed eyelids while they were asleep. In this follow-up study, Zeitzer wanted to learn more about what types of flashes are most effective.
So, he woke people up in the middle of the night for an hour and exposed them to bursts of light akin to camera flashes. The flashes lasted 2 milliseconds, with gaps in between ranging from 2.5 seconds to 4 minutes. Subjects also periodically gave saliva samples, from which researchers could measure melatonin levels, a hormone that promotes sleepiness.The rhythm that worked best at shifting subjects’ circadian clocks, Zeitzer found, was a flash somewhere between every 2 and 8 seconds. A couple of individuals in this group saw a shift in their internal clock of up to three hours
Energy Saving Project Financing
• Lighting as a service
• Leasing /renting lighting systems
• Special assessments on property taxes
• 0-1% Low interest loans for e.s. projects
• Crowdfunding (kickstarter, indie go-go, etc)
http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/news/news15/nanowires-could-be-the-leds-of-the-future/?
http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/17/graphene-light-bulb/
Forget LED light bulbs... in the future, your lighting may be made from
carbon. Columbia University researchers have built a light bulb chip
that superheats graphene to produce illumination. While that's the
same basic concept that you see in an incandescent bulb, the
graphene filament measures just one atom thick -- this is the world's
thinnest light bulb, and may be close to being the thinnest possible.
It's transparent, too, which could suit it to see-through displays.
[Image credit: Myung-Ho Bae/KRISS]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature
=player_embedded&v=DaxKbATmTCE
http://archive.aweber.com/graphene-info/PX2fz/h/The_Graphene_Info_newsletter.htm
http://electroiq.com/blog/2015/08/quantum-dot-technology-may-help-light-the-future/
Advances at Oregon State University in manufacturing technology for “quantum dots” may soon lead to a new generation of LED lighting that produces a more user-friendly white light, while using less toxic materials and low-cost manufacturing processes that take advantage of simple microwave heating.
The cost, environmental, and performance improvements could finally produce solid state lighting systems that consumers really like and help the nation cut its lighting bill almost in half, researchers say, compared to the cost of incandescent and fluorescent lighting.The same technology may also be widely incorporated into improved lighting displays, computer screens, smart phones, televisions and other systems.
“There are a variety of products and technologies that quantum dots can be applied to, but for mass consumer use, possibly the most important is improved LED lighting,” said Greg Herman, an associate professor and chemical engineer in the OSU College of Engineering.
51
In theory, the crystal structures could boost the efficiency of incandescent bulbs to 40%, making them three times more efficient than the best LED or CFL bulbs on the market.
The researchers have built their first proof-of-concept units which reach an efficiency of 6.6%, but even that is almost three times the level of a standard incandescent bulb.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35284112
Now researchers at MIT believe they have developed a technique that could turn the weakness of the traditional incandescent bulb into a strength.Using nanotechnology, they've built a structure that surrounds the filament of the bulb and captures the leaking infrared radiation, reflecting it back to the filament where it is re-absorbed and then re-emitted as visible light.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/3009241/networking/light-based-li-fi-beams-data-100-times-faster-than-wi-fi.html
It ain’t all sunshine and rosesWhile Li-Fi does have potential, it also has limits. Most importantly, visible light can’t travel through walls the way radio waves can—meaning you either have to have an open floor plan or set-up Li-Fi as a complement to your existing Wi-Fi set-up. Similarly, you can block a Li-Fi connection just by putting something solid (like a book) in front of the transmitting light bulb.
Li-Fi also doesn’t work outside in direct daylight since any light signals would be washed out by the overpowering light coming from the sun. Regardless, even as a complement to regular wireless Internet connections, Li-Fi sounds like it could become a useful tool—if it ever goes mainstream.
http://www.ledinside.com/news/2016/1/apple_ios_code_hints_of_integrating_li_fi_applications_in_future_devices
55http://www.wired.com/2016/01/wifi-halow-internet-of-things/
The Wi-Fi Alliance, the organization that dictates and advances Wi-Fi standards, has announced the latest iteration of its increasingly indispensable technology. Called HaLow, it promises to double the range of standard 2.4GHz Wi-Fi connections, while also doing a better job of penetrating walls, floors, and other obstacles that can make your Wi-Fi sputter and skulk.
56
From website 12-9-2015
http://www.oled-info.com/oled-light
http://www.ledsmagazine.com/articles/2016/01/osram-ceo-doubts-oleds-for-general-lighting.html
But a long-anticipated OLED revolution in general lighting has not happened. OLED enthusiasts believe that the technology heralds a whole new era of lighting in which architects and designers will build light sources — OLED material — into the fabricof luminaires, buildings, bridges, walls, ceilings, furniture, fashion, and the like. Along the way, though, developers have struggled to reduce manufacturing costs and to match the energy efficiency of LEDs. At the same time, LED developers have become more creative in design.The difficulties of advancing OLEDs played a role in Philips’ decision last year to sell its OLED group to OLEDWorks.
“The OLED revolution could still happen. So, by the way, could fusion.”
'In all probability LEDs will remain significantly cheaper, more efficient and longer lasting than OLEDs, and that means LED will remain the mainstream technology for the foreseeable future. Despite ongoing market growth, OLED will not be able to match the many benefits of LED, before the next new technology comes along.'
Next new technology? Hmmm. Did someone say 'laser diode?' Nobel laureate Shuji Nakamura did.
http://www.luxreview.com/news/550/oleds-too-little-too-late?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Robert%20Bain&utm_content=
http://www.ledinside.com/news/2015/8/asu_researchers_demonstrate_white_lasers_that_could_potentially_replace_leds
http://blog.aylanetworks.com/ayla-networks-impressions-from-ces-2016-the-iot-is-maturing-but-still-hot?utm_campaign=Newsletters&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=25863159&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-98KryfgyTfmuiFiixNTtsiIJTZVa2bXmyagE68K9sByZjF9igM3fqH_RI8Lk7sHUS5acEECe9fZd3SopWcm5J9s3XoBg&_hsmi=25863159
The Internet of Things (IoT) is everywhere. From smart home to smart health to wearables, connected products are definitely hot. The trend is moving away from individual connected products to more complete connected solutions. As an example, companies like Lowe’s literally built houses on the show floor to demonstrate how a variety of connected products might work together.
Standards, protocols and interoperability emerged as areas of real interest in the IoT. We had some good conversations around these topics, as well as about the idea of TVs becoming home gateways for all kinds of connected products and services.
In the area of IoT specifically, a lot more non-U.S. companies were exhibiting, especially from China and France.
http://luxreview.com/article/2016/01/sony-s-new-smart-light-is-the-most-versatile-we-ve-seen
http://www.buildings.com/news/industry-news/articleid/19219/title/lighting-control-
market-set-to-double-by-2024.aspx
64
65http://www.wirelesslighting.com/
205 Member Companies
http://www.wirelesspowerconsortium.com/member-list/?name_member_company=&category=-1&membership_category=&submitbutton=Search
http://www.gizmag.com/led-fiber-wearable-display-kaist/38890/
68
Package of 10 with hub will sell for about $150 and should be available mid-2016
Shown at CES 2016
69https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/fluxo-the-world-s-first-truly-smart-lamp--2#/story
300 LED’sSelf-learningPresence turns on & offUser directs light with app
70http://luxreview.com/article/2016/01/why-is-apple-starting-to-patent-light-fittings-?nocache=1
Apple has been granted a patent for the ceiling lighting system it has developed for its new-look stores in a move that has again raised the issue of the company’s intentions in the lighting market.
showpiece feature of its next-generation stores. One of the first in the world to sport the new look is the company’s outlet in Brussels. The fully-illuminated LED ceiling is interspersed with narrow linear lighting troughs which include spotlights and other services, a design that is not wholly unfamiliar to lighting professionals working in the retail sector.
The US Patent and Trademark Office has granted Apple a US Patent for its new illuminated ceilings, which will be the
http://beamlabsinc.com/beam/
http://luxreview.com/article/2015/07/led-lighting-a-wi-fi-hotspot-and-gadget-charger-all-rolled-into-one-big-outdoor-palm-tree
3D Printing Disrupts $10T Mfg. Industry
73
http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/how-local-motors-hopes-to-disrupt-the-auto-industry-with-a-53000-3d-printed-car
74
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20141201-rohinni-produces-the-world-thinnest-led-lights-3d-printing.html
http://www.shapeways.com/
http://www.3dprinting.lighting/
http://3dprint.com/109090/graphene-3d-patent-led-light/
Their first product was a conductive filament created for desktop FDM 3D printers that allows simple, electricity conducting circuits to be printed without having to add any other components or wiring.Graphene 3D Lab has announced that they have filed a provisional patent application for a process using graphene materials to 3D print an organic LED light using their newly developed multi-functional 3D printer. The patent application includes 3D printer technology that uses multiple material deposition techniques, robotic manipulation, and laser as well as UV curing capabilities. The application is specific to the process of using their new printer to fabricate a working LED light source that is entirely functional right off of the printing bed with no further augmentation required. The printed organic LED device is a graphene coated transparent window that will automatically conduct electricity.
http://3dprint.com/111225/samsung-patent-holographic/
The holographic 3D printer is said to include:
•A light source configured to emit a beam•A beam splitting and expanding unit configured to split the emitted beam into a reference beam and signal beam, and to expand the signal beam•An illumination unit configured to extract the expanded signal beam and collimate the extracted signal beam•A spatial light modulator (SLM) configured to modulate the collimated signal beam•An objective lens unit configured to emit the modulated signal beam to a holographic recording medium•A reference beam forming unit configured to emit the reference beam to the holographic recording medium
http://www.shapeways.com/
The 6 D’s
Hallmarks of Exponential Growth
1. Digitalization
2. Deception
3. Disruption
4. Demonetization
5. Dematerialization
6. Democratization
Personal Control
81
Most Important Force of Change
82
In the year 2000 there were about 360 million internet users
Global internet users rise from 2B in 2010 to nearly 5B in 2020
3B new minds expanding, learning, connecting & creating
When remaining 2.4B on line = more convergent consequences
Mark Lien LC, CLEP, CLMC, HBDP
LEED Accredited Professional BD&C
Houston - February 16, 2016
Forces of ChangeLED’s-Whats Next?
