Ford Equity Research

Timothy R. Alward, CFA – President & CEONeasa Nic Dhonaill – Vice President of SalesIER@fordequity.com

Overview

Background of Ford Equity Research

Market Outlook

Investment Philosophy

Reports Explained

• Earnings strength• Relative valuation• Price movement

Where to find on BMO InvestorLine

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Disclaimer

The opinions and views expressed in the webcast presentations are that of the speaker and not BMO InvestorLine. Any strategies discussed, including examples using actual securities and price data, are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes only and are not to be construed as anendorsement, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The statements in these presentations are prepared as a general source of information. They are not intended to provide legal, investment, accounting or tax advice, and should not be relied upon in that regard. If legal or investment advice or other professional assistance is needed, the service of a competent professional should be obtained. The information contained in this webcast is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

®Registered trade-mark of Bank of Montreal, used under license. BMO InvestorLine Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Montreal Holding Inc. Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) and IIROC.

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation reflect those of the individual authors/presenters only and do not represent in any way Ford Equity Research (“Ford”)’s opinion or any of its affiliates. The presentation is not endorsed by Ford or its affiliates. The information provided in this presentation, including financial and economic data, quotes and any analysis or interpretation thereof, is provided solely on an information basis and shall not be interpreted in any jurisdiction as an advice or a recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment instrument, underlying security or any other financial instrument or as a legal, accounting, tax, financial or investment advice. Ford and its affiliates do not endorse or recommend any securities referenced in this presentation. Ford recommends that you consult your own advisors in accordance with your needs. Although care has been taken in the preparation of these articles, Ford and/or its affilates do not guarantee the completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions in or your use of, or reliance on, the information. Ford reserves the right to amend, review or delete, at any time and without prior notice, the content of this presentation. Ford, its affiliates, directors, officers, employees and agents will not be liable for damages, losses or costs incurred as a result of the use of any information appearing in this presentation.

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About Ford Equity Research

Established in 1970

Reputation of excellence in providing high-quality fundamental data, stock selection models, stock ratings and analytical tools

Diligently backtested and validated

Report universe of over 4,000 companies (including about 400 Canadian)

Weekly report with Ford’s most current recommendation given company fundamentals and price performance

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Stocks Undervalued Versus Long Term History

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0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Jan

-75

Jan

-76

Jan

-77

Jan

-78

Jan

-79

Jan

-80

Jan

-81

Jan

-82

Jan

-83

Jan

-84

Jan

-85

Jan

-86

Jan

-87

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Average Price to Value Ratio, Ford Coverage Universe

1.01

0.72

1.46

Ford Universe

1.00

1.50

1.15

1.81

0.93

1.23

1.00

1.29

1.00

0.87

1.39

1.79

0.84

Start of1981

Bear Market

Start of 1983Market

Consolidation

1987 CRASH

1990 Recession Asian

Flu

InternetTech

Bubble

1.57

1.14

0.71

1.53

1.62

0.90911 Attack

GlobalLiquidity

Data as of 04/30/12

Govt.Stimulus

Canadian Stocks Undervalued Versus Long Term History

5

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Aug

-86

Aug

-87

Aug

-88

Aug

-89

Aug

-90

Aug

-91

Aug

-92

Aug

-93

Aug

-94

Aug

-95

Aug

-96

Aug

-97

Aug

-98

Aug

-99

Aug

-00

Aug

-01

Aug

-02

Aug

-03

Aug

-04

Aug

-05

Aug

-06

Aug

-07

Aug

-08

Aug

-09

Aug

-10

Aug

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Canadian Coverage UniversePrice to Value Ratio

1987 Crash

1990 Recession

AsianFlu

1.87

1.31

0.75 0.81

911 Attack

GlobalLiquidity

Data as of 4/30/121987 Crash

1990 Recession

InternetTech

Bubble1.87

0.81

Data as of 4/30/12

2.22

1.57

1.06

0.95

1.15

1.69

1.95

CreditCrunch

Govt.Stimulus

1.69

Canadian & US Markets Historically Highly Correlated

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Seasonality Favors May to Sept Slowdown

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US Markets Undervalued in the Short Term

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Investment Philosophy

EPS trend is the most important factor driving stock price

Use Operating Earnings per Share to measure growth rate and relative valuation Historical price movement used to confirm stock ratings

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Report Overview

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1. Reports updated last trading day of week (Friday) with most current data

3. Summary of Recommendation

4. Peer Group comparison 5. 5 Year price

graph with valuation bands 6. Historical

fundamental data below

2. Previous rating Buy on 4/14/12 then went to Strong Buy

4/20/12.

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Earnings Strength

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Ford Earnings Momentum measures the acceleration (deceleration) of EPS growth for the last 4 quarters and the current quarter estimate. Trailing 12-month operating earnings shown at each point.

Is the acceleration of earnings growth projected to continue? Measure the change in analysts’ earnings estimates for the current and next fiscal year?

How accurate have the analysts been in their estimates?

Relative Valuation

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How does the valuation of the company compare to all other companies in our research universe?

Measure earnings yield which is EPS/Price, the opposite of P/E and higher is better.

National Bank of Canada is in the top 20% of stocks in our universe which is Very Positive.

Price Movement

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Is the stock overpriced in the short term?

Good 1 year price performance tends to lead to future good price performance.

Good performance in the short term tends to reverse (revert the mean).

National Bank of Canada is down 6.4% over the past year but most of the weakness has been over the last quarter and month, which could lead to a rebound.

Report Overview

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Report Overview

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Report Overview

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Report Overview

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Report Overview

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Where to find Ford Research?

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Questions?

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