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FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
March 2013
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
CATEGORIES
CONSUMER TRENDS
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 3 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Disclaimer
Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies‟ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
The travel industry confirmed
its vitality in 2012, recording 4%
growth in terms of international
arrivals. Growth is expected to
continue in the next five years
and beyond, driven by the
growing desire to explore the
world among consumers across
the globe, as well as by the rise
of the middle and affluent
classes in the emerging
economies. The fastest growing
categories include online travel,
low cost carriers, medical
tourism, shopping tourism, rail
transport and private
accommodation.
Scope
INTRODUCTION
Travel and Tourism
Tourism flows and spending
Travel accommodation
Transportation
Car rental
Travel retail
Tourist attractions
Health and wellness tourism
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 4 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
World tourism
confirms its
vitality
World tourism flows achieved another positive performance in 2012, growing by 4% and
surpassing one billion tourist arrivals during the year. Emerging markets once again
generated the most growth, however, tourist arrivals performed well also in advanced
economies.
Steady growth
to continue
The tourism industry is forecast to maintain its vitality in the next five years and beyond,
benefiting from a growing desire to explore the world among consumers across the globe
as well as from the rise of middle and affluent classes in the emerging economies.
A multi-channel
model for hotel
distribution
The hotel sector benefited in 2012 from the growth in international arrivals, as well as in
domestic tourism in countries such as China, Brazil and India. A growing trend in this sector
is the emergence of a multi-channel model where the mobile channel and meta-search
engines play an important role.
Gulf airlines
and LCCs drive
air transport
growth
Air transport saw healthy 5% growth in 2012 in terms of passengers, with the Middle East
achieving the highest increase. The Big Three Gulf airlines drove traffic growth in the
region and achieved the best performance among world airlines. Low cost carriers
continued to be the most successful category.
Online channel
to expand
globally
Online travel continued its rise in 2012, at the expense of traditional distribution channels.
Advanced economies still accounted for the vast majority of online travel sales, but
emerging markets are expected to play a major role in this sector within five years.
Shopping and
medical tourism
grow fast
Online travel and low cost carriers are the most significant success stories among travel
consumers, and will continue to achieve strong performances in the next five years. Other
rising consumer trends include medical tourism, shopping tourism, mobile travel, rail
transport and private accommodation.
Key findings
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
CATEGORIES
CONSUMER TRENDS
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 6 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
World GDP is expected to rise by 3.5% in 2013, up from 3.2% seen in 2012. This growth is the result of a
polarised performance which sees decline or stagnation in the Eurozone and in the UK while emerging
countries continue to record healthy growth rates.
The world continues looking to China and, to a lesser extent, India for strong economic growth in 2013. The
other BRIC nations, Brazil and Russia as well as the MENA (Middle East North Africa) region, will also
show economic progress in 2013.
Western Europe will remain mired in uncertainty, with investor and consumer confidence low. A healthier
economic performance is expected in 2014 for the UK (2%) and in 2015 for the Eurozone (1.5%).
The outlook for the US economy is brighter, following the bipartisan agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff and
thanks to the recovery of the real estate industry and to a rise in investment.
The world in 2013: A polarised performance
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
GDP % Growth in World Regions 2012-2017 World
China
India
MENA
Russia
US
Brazil
UK
Eurozone
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 7 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Although the peak of the financial crisis
appears to have passed, austerity measures
are hampering GDP growth in the Eurozone,
resulting in social distress and in the risk of a
prolonged stagnation.
The prospects for the US economy look
much rosier in 2013; however, a large public
debt and trade deficit represent threats to
future growth which need to be addressed.
Sustained growth is expected for China in
the next five years, thanks to the
development of the internal market and to
substantial foreign investment.
The emerging economies will need to shift
their focus onto intra-regional and domestic
markets in order to make up for the weaker
demand from traditional sources in Western
Europe and the US.
The economic outlook is mixed for the
Middle East, with healthy growth expected in
the next five years for oil exporters, while oil
importers remain under strain.
What lies ahead?
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
Eurozone woes continuing
Fiscal threat for the US
Sustained growth in China
Mixed outlook for the Middle East
Emerging markets looking intra-
regionally
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
CATEGORIES
CONSUMER TRENDS
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 9 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The World Tourism organisation (UNTWO)
celebrated the world‟s billionth international
arrival in December 2012, a world record
highlighting the ongoing vitality in tourism.
Global tourism performance is being driven
by emerging markets, notably the BRICs.
Developed countries are, however, also
seeing continued growth in arrivals,
benefiting from growing outbound flows
from emerging markets.
Global arrivals are predicted to continue
their growth in the next five years, matching
GDP increases, as travel continues to
illustrate its popularity. Average spend will,
however, remain stagnant over the same
time period, as a result of continuing caution
and hesitancy amongst European travellers.
Asia Pacific is home to some of the key
countries expected to record significant
growth in arrivals over the next five years,
including Vietnam, Myanmar, Uzbekistan
and the Philippines.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
Global Economic and Tourism Performance: % Growth 2012-2017
Global GDP International arrivals
Average spend per arrival
Arrivals and spending: Tourism shows vitality
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 10 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Arrivals to Western Europe continue to record growth below the world average, although the performance
in terms of both inbound tourism flows and expenditure was still positive in 2012.
Eastern Europe achieved strong growth of 8% in terms of arrivals in 2012, driven by intra-regional flows.
Growth is expected to be less robust but still healthy from 2013 onwards.
Asia Pacific is showing good growth, although a slight tapering off is expected over the forecast period.
The Middle East and Africa recorded the worst performance among the world regions in 2012, due to
political instability. Its performance is expected to improve in the next five years, as stability returns.
North America is predicted to maintain growth at around 4%, with the US simplifying visa processes to
entice visitors from the fast growing BRICs. Other regions showing healthy growth include Latin America
and Australasia, both of which are benefiting from growing flows from emerging markets.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
Arrivals by Region % Growth 2012-2017
Asia Pacific
Australasia
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East and Africa
North America
Western Europe
Regional arrivals: Asia Pacific to lead
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 11 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The BRIC nations, with their rapidly growing middle and
affluent classes, are expected to be key drivers of growth
for many tourism destinations in the next five years.
China and India are leading the charge, with CAGRs of
above 10% predicted for the next five years in terms of
both outbound trips and expenditure. Outbound tourism
flows from both countries are mainly to other Asian
destinations. The US is the leading non-Asian destination
for Chinese travellers, followed by Australia and France.
For Indian travellers, the UAE is the favourite non-Asian
destination, followed by the US.
Neighbouring Ukraine and Finland are the main
destinations for Russian travellers. However, Turkey is by
far the favourite destination for package holidays,
accounting for 28% of organised trips. In the last two
years, Turkey and Greece were aided by the decline of
packaged holidays to Egypt, due to political instability in
the country, with Greece replacing Egypt in second place.
Whilst Brazil is showing the least dramatic growth in
spending of the BRICs, average spend for the Brazilian
tourist is high, with shopping abroad a popular pastime,
due to high import taxes at home, and a major driver of
departures to the US, France and Italy.
0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15
Brazil
Russia
India
China
%CAGR 2012-2017
Outbound Tourism Trips and Expenditure in BRIC Countries
Outbound Expenditure Outbound trips
Outbound tourism flows: Everyone is chasing the BRICs
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
1. US 2. Argentina 3. Uruguay
Brazil
1. Hong Kong 2. Macau 3. South Korea
China
1. Singapore 2. Thailand 3. UAE
India
1. Ukraine 2. Finland 3. Kazakhstan
Russia
BRIC‟s Top Three Outbound
Destinations 2012
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 12 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Once again, China, Russia and India are expected to
lead among those countries recording absolute
increases in outbound tourist trips of over one million in
the next five years. Rising disposable incomes in these
emerging economies, combined with the relaxation of
visa requirements, have opened up travel to more
consumers.
China, in particular, is forecast to see an increase of
almost 47 million outbound trips over the next five
years.
The expected stronger performance of the US economy
is forecast to drive a substantial 8 million growth in
American outbound tourists over the 2012-2017 period.
Turkey is slowly creeping up the rankings to fifth place
thanks to a stable economy and expanding flight
options encouraging travel, with trips to Greece a
growing trend.
Newcomer Kazakhstan enters the list, with an increase
of over 3 million travellers predicted over the next five
years. A strong economy, boosted by oil revenues and
natural resources, is aiding the development of the
country and enabling its citizens to travel.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
UK
UAE
Australia
Kazakhstan
France
Canada
Switzerland
Japan
Germany
Malaysia
Taiwan
Turkey
US
India
Russia
China
Million departures
Top Countries for Outbound Departures Forecast Absolute
Increase 2012-2017
The million+ departure club
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 13 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Business travel has recorded a healthy rise since the downturn across the globe in 2009 , to reach 212
million arrivals in 2012. Western Europe is the world leader for international business arrivals, with a 37%
volume share, followed by Asia Pacific, with a 29% share.
2013 is predicted to see a 5.9% rise in global business travel spend, according to the Global Business
Travel Association (GBTA).
Business travel has changed, with many companies shifting to video-conferencing for the troubled
established markets in Europe, and spending instead on travel to emerging markets, where growth is more
certain.
In 2012, there were 1.9 billion domestic business trips worldwide, up by 7% on 2011. Asia Pacific is the
world leader in domestic business travel, with a 64% share, followed by North America, with an 18% share.
Business Arrivals in 2012 by World Region
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Middle East and Africa
Eastern Europe
North America
Latin America
Australasia
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Global Business Arrivals % Growth 2009-2017
% year-on-year growth
Business travel: Back on the road
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
CATEGORIES
CONSUMER TRENDS
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 15 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The hotel sector is expected to achieve healthy growth globally in the next five years, driven by increased
demand in emerging countries and a positive performance in the US. Western Europe is expected to record
more moderate growth in terms of value sales, due to intra-regional travellers increasingly turning to budget
options. International hotel chains continue to look to corporate guests for revenue growth. Domestic
business travel in China, India and the US is thriving, and assisting hotels to increase revenues.
A rush of new websites and mobile apps are leading to the clear emergence of a multi-channel model for
hotel bookings. Last minute hotel bookings are now much easier, thanks to apps such as those of Hotel
Tonight , Orbitz, Booking.com and Expedia, which cater to a traveller‟s specific city location, and often
provide discounted rates for a same day booking. Mobile apps are expected to account for two-digit shares
of sales for the main online travel agencies in 2013.
Hotels: Embracing technology and innovation
CATEGORIES
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Latin America Eastern Europe North America Australasia Western Europe
%C
AG
R
Hotel Value Sales % CAGR by World Region 2012-2107
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 16 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Global pipeline development for hotels is at full force, with leading hotel chains expected to add over
700,000 rooms in the next five years. The focus for some leading groups, such as InterContinental Hotels
Group (IHG), Hilton, Marriott and Accor, remains their domestic markets in the US and Europe.
However, other hotel chains are firmly focused on the developing countries. With 113,900 rooms in the
pipeline, Wyndham has a strong focus on international markets like China, India and Brazil. In Asia Pacific,
Wyndham plans to open five new Ramada hotels in China by 2013, and build 35 new Howard Johnson
hotels in India by 2017. Although from a small base, four Chinese hotel chains recorded the fastest
absolute value growth globally in the last five years: 7 Days Group Holdings Ltd, China Lodging Group Ltd,
Homeinns Hotel & Management Co Ltd and Shanghai Motel Chain Co Ltd.
Hotels: Strong pipeline for leading brands
CATEGORIES
Total Number of Rooms in the Pipeline for Leading Hotel Chains 2012
Hotel Number of rooms in the pipeline Pipeline focus
IHG 167,485 Americas (45%)
Hilton 161,177 Americas (approximately 63%)
Wyndham 113,900 International markets (53%)
Starwood 95,000 Asia Pacific (64%)
Marriott 90,000-105,000 North America (55%)
Accor N/A Europe (46%)
Hyatt 38,000 International markets (70%)
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 17 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
2012 saw a 5% rise in the number of air passengers worldwide. The Middle East was the best performing
region in the air sector in terms of traffic in 2012, followed by Latin America, Africa and Asia Pacific.
China and Brazil recorded the highest growth in terms of domestic air traffic, of 9.5% and 8.6%,
respectively.
The Big Three Gulf airlines (Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways) were the players faring best – together
with low cost carriers – in 2012. They have recently been building networks with other airlines to enlarge
their reach. American Airlines has sealed a code-sharing deal with Qatar Airways, whilst the latter is also
exploring a share in Czech Airlines. Etihad now has a stake in Air Berlin, opening up access to the German
airline‟s large European network. The Big Three Gulf airlines may be involved in more acquisitions in other
world regions in the next five years in order to expand further.
Air transport: Middle East leads growth
CATEGORIES
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East andAfrica
Australasia North America Western Europe
%C
AG
R
Air Value Sales % CAGR by World Region 2012-2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 18 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Low cost carriers were once again the air category to achieve the best performance in 2012, growing
globally by 8% in terms of constant value sales.
In order to face competition from low cost airlines on medium and short haul routes, a number of schedule
airlines are currently embracing a business model which is more similar to the low cost one, either by
launching a low cost brand or by offering cheaper fares. Moves in this direction include Air France‟s Mini
fare and low cost brand HOP!, Lufthansa‟s no-frills Germanwings brand, Iberia‟s Iberia Express low cost
brand, Air Canada‟s Rouge low cost brand and Alitalia‟s new cheaper fares policy.
Air transport: Low cost carriers‟ success story continues
CATEGORIES
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Malaysia
Turkey
USA
India
Indonesia
Italy
China
Philippines
Absolute growth in passenger numbers (million)
Low Cost Carriers Forecast Absolute Increase in Passengers 2012-2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 19 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The US and Western Europe remained the
largest online travel markets in 2012, amounting
to US$185 billon and US$170 billion, respectively,
or 38% and 35% of global online travel sales.
They are also the markets expected to grow least
over 2012-2017, as they approach maturity.
The emerging economies have yet to embrace
online travel fully, but they have significant
potential for growth over the next five years.
China, India, Russia and Brazil are all expected to
become major online travel markets, with healthy
online travel value CAGRs of between 10% and
20% over 2012-2017.
0
5
10
15
20
25
India China United ArabEmirates
Russia South Africa Brazil Western Europe USA
%C
AG
R
Online Travel Value Sales % CAGR in Key Markets 2012-2017
Note: the charts refer to online value sales of transportation, travel accommodation, car rental
and tourist attractions through intermediaries and direct suppliers.
Online travel: Emerging markets catching up
CATEGORIES
Online Travel Value Sales by World Region 2012
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Australasia
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Middle East and Africa
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 20 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
2012 saw several significant developments in online travel,
which had a significant impact for the whole travel industry.
The success of mobile travel resulted in smartphones and
tablets becoming an increasingly important sales channel, as
well as customer service tools.
The inroads made by technology companies in the travel
market was a second important development in 2012. In
particular, Google‟s position in online travel distribution is
becoming increasingly strong, with the launch of the Google
Flight Search and Hotel Finder meta-search engines, and it is
starting to be perceived as a threat by travel retail companies.
Meta-search engines, such as Kayak and Booking Buddy, are
growing in importance, due to consumers increasingly
searching the web for travel deals.
Moves by technology companies were addressed by the
largest online travel agencies looking for new traffic sources.
Priceline bought Kayak and Expedia acquired a majority stake
in Trivago, two meta-search engines.
Traditional travel operators are increasingly focusing on online
sales, including companies such as American Express, TUI
and Thomas Cook. Another important development is travel
retailers looking to differentiate their products in an
environment where all players have a very similar offer.
Online travel: A fast changing environment
CATEGORIES
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
CATEGORIES
CONSUMER TRENDS
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 22 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
0
2
4
6
8
10
Medical Tourism Low Cost Carriers Online Travel Rail Travel Areas of NaturalBeauty
Tourist Receipts onShopping
PrivateAccommodation
Global Fastest Growing Travel Categories: Value Sales % CAGR 2012-2017
% C
AG
R
Medical tourism remains a success story among travel categories, with continued strong growth expected
over the next five years. Consumers are keen to obtain savings on medical treatments, and have increased
confidence in travelling to medical tourism destinations such as India, Thailand and Brazil.
Rail travel continues to grow in value globally, with high speed trains often competing successfully with
short haul flights. China upped the stakes in December 2012 with the opening of a high speed line between
Beijing and Guangzhou, shortening the 2,298 km journey time to eight hours.
National parks and areas of natural beauty are growing in popularity, with consumers seeking a “back to
nature” or green tourism experience.
Private accommodation is also expected to gain ground in the next five years, driven by travel websites for
peer-to-peer sales such as Airbnb , Homelidays and HomeAway.
Low cost carriers, online travel and shopping tourism are other major drivers of growth for the tourism
industry.
Growth categories to watch
CONSUMER TRENDS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 23 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Shopping is becoming increasingly important
for the travel industry and is today a major
reason for travelling for large numbers of
tourists.
BRIC nationals are avid shoppers, and the
shopping tourism trend is being driven by their
strong preference for status symbol products
and brands, as well as high import taxes for
foreign luxury products. Brazilians, for
example, are the biggest tourist spenders in
New York City, where goods are often half the
price they are at home.
The US remains the top location for incoming
shopping tourism receipts, with China in
second place and Hong Kong third. France, in
fifth place, is a favourite destination for luxury
shopping, especially for BRIC travellers.
China is leading growth in outbound shopping
spending, with a 15% CAGR forecast over
2012-2017. Asia Pacific countries are
predicted to dominate shopping tourism
growth, with India, Vietnam and Taiwan all
showing significant increases.
0 3 6 9 12 15
Taiwan
Vietnam
Kenya
India
China
%CAGR 2012-2017
Leading Countries for % CAGR in Outbound Tourism Expenditure on Shopping 2012-2017
0 3 6 9 12 15
France
Spain
Hong Kong
China
US
US$ billion
Leading Countries for Incoming Tourism Receipts on Shopping 2012
Shopping tourism: Driven by the BRICs
CONSUMER TRENDS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 24 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The introduction of smartphones represents one of the most significant technological developments of
recent years, and it is having a major impact on the travel industry, due to the mobile nature of travellers.
In the mobile travel era, travellers expect real time answers wherever they are and at any time, before,
during and after the trip. These include booking capabilities when on the go.
Moreover , as a result of the intersection between the mobile and social dimensions, and of the creation of
geo-social media – aware of users‟ geographical location – travellers expect a higher level of customisation
of services based on their stored preferences and current location.
Travel companies need to embrace the SoLoMo (social local mobile) trend fully, integrating it in their
strategies and business models in order to benefit from the increasing share of business generated by the
new mobile and social consumers.
The SoLoMo trend: Reshaping consumers in the travel industry
CONSUMER TRENDS
Travel company
Reputation
management
Apps
Mobile
website
Geo-social
media
Mobile
bookings
Mobile alerts
and services
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 25 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
High level of comfort
Top notch service
Status symbol
Privacy guaranteed
Exclusive locations
Luxury travel recorded a significant recovery after the decline experienced in 2009, with luxury hotels and
premium air travel growing by between 5 % and 10% per year over the 2010-2012 period.
Advanced economies still represent the main source of luxury travel worldwide. Luxury travel in these
countries is expected to grow at a 4% constant value CAGR over the 2012-2017 period .
Emerging markets are still much less important for luxury travel; however, they are expected to record the
fastest growth in this category, at a 10% constant value CAGR over the 2012-2017 period.
Luxury travel is evolving, with experiential travel and sustainability becoming increasingly important,
especially in the traditional luxury travel markets, while the classic model of luxury travel is still valid in
emerging markets. However, in some emerging markets, such as Brazil and, to a lesser extent, China, the
new model of luxury travel is also gaining ground.
Luxury travel: From status symbol to experiential travel
CONSUMER TRENDS
Classic model of luxury travel New model of luxury travel
Experiential travel
Authentic experiences
Ecotourism
Multi-generational
Voluntourism
Sustainability
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 26 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Sustainable tourism is gaining momentum, becoming increasingly important for most businesses,
governments and consumers.
Europe leads the way in sustainability. Scandinavian countries feature strongly in the World Economic
Forum (WEF) sustainable ranking, with Sweden leading the world.
Price, quality, brand and convenience will continue to drive consumers‟ choices, but sustainability will
become a more influential factor in consumers‟ decision making when they choose a product.
LOHAS (“lifestyles of health and sustainability”) is increasingly being recognised as a major new consumer
segment. According to the World Travel Monitor Forum, those interested in LOHAS could be the tourism
industry's new premium customers.
Switzerland is wooing the LOHAS target group with eco-hotels, car-free alpine villages and a growing
number of “biosphere reservations”. Many of the top sustainability countries are also in Europe, with
Scandinavia leading the way, albeit with a reputation for expensive stays.
The importance of sustainable tourism
development for African national parks and
local communities was highlighted in the
Arusha Declaration on Sustainable Tourism in
African National Parks, signed in October 2012
at the first Pan-African Conference on
Sustainable Tourism in African National Parks,
organised by the UN World Tourism
Organization (UNWTO).
Sustainable tourism: The rise in social responsibility
CONSUMER TRENDS
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
CATEGORIES
CONSUMER TRENDS
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 28 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Russian inbound tourists showed solid growth in 2012, up by 13% from 2011 to reach 26 million trips.
However, for a country with vast cultural attractions and tourism potential, the number of inbound visitors
remains disproportionally low, once neighbouring countries are discounted.
Cultural and economic connections with neighbouring countries and former Soviet republics represent the
main driver of growth, while tourism from important outbound markets such as Western Europe and the US
still needs to take off.
Major sports events planned in the country in the next few years may represent important opportunities to
showcase Russia and its tourist attractions to a global audience. These events include the World Athletic
Championships in Moscow 2013, Winter Olympic Games in Sochi 2014, and the FIFA World Cup in 2018.
Russia: Inbound tourism still to develop its potential
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Finland Azerbaijan Moldova Poland Belarus China Tajikistan Germany
‟000 t
rips
Number of Arrivals to Russia from Top Source Countries 2012/2017
2012 2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 29 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The main goal of a federal
programme launched in 2011, called
Domestic and Inbound Tourism
Development 2011-2018, is to
increase the number of inbound
arrivals in Russia six-fold by 2018,
with a 150% increase in the number
of domestic trips also targeted under
the programme.
In order to achieve these ambitious
goals, the Russian government is
set to invest RUB96 billion from
state funds, with a further RUB25
billion invested by regional and
municipal governments and RUB211
billion expected to be attracted from
private funding sources. The
majority of these funds will be
invested in developing Russia‟s
travel and tourism infrastructure, as
well as undertaking promotions
abroad.
Russia: Issues hampering inbound tourism growth
REGIONAL FOCUS
Bureaucracy in
obtaining visa
Image overseas
Undeveloped
infrastructure
Safety concerns
Quality of tourist
services
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 30 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
With rising disposable incomes and a relatively stable
economy, Russian outbound travellers are growing
year-on-year, up by 9% in 2012 compared to 2011.
The traditional destinations of Ukraine, Finland and
Kazakhstan remain the most popular, due to proximity
and shopping trips, as well as friends and family visits.
However, the top package holidays destinations are
significantly different and are growing in diversity.
Turkey remains the most popular by far, accounting
for 28% of the total. It has benefited in the last two
years from the decline of trips to Egypt due to political
instability in the country. Package holidays to Greece
recorded healthy 25% growth in 2012, placing Greece
as the second favourite destination for organised trips
from Russia. Strong growth was also recorded in 2012
by organised trips to Spain, Bulgaria, Italy, Cyprus,
Croatia and Thailand.
Many countries are trying to attract tourists from
Russia by reducing visa and administrative barriers.
Croatia introduced visa-free travel for Russians from
April to October 2012, while Mexico implemented an
online visa procedure for Russians.
Russia: Outbound travellers exploring new destinations
REGIONAL FOCUS
Country Breakdown of Russian Package Holidays Value Sales 2012
Turkey Greece Egypt Spain Bulgaria
Italy Thailand Cyprus Croatia Other
Source: Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR)
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 31 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Russian consumers are actively switching from traditional travel retail outlets to the online channel to book
flights, hotels, car rental services and holiday packages. The increasing number of internet users in Russia
and the growing trust in online purchases are important drivers of online travel‟s positive performance. This
has created favourable conditions for the development of online travel retailers and is, moreover, boosting
individual travel over group trips.
Russians actively use a wide variety of local and international social media websites, such as VKontakte,
Odnoklassniki, YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Social media are becoming an increasingly important tool
for travel and tourism companies to communicate with their customers and organise promotional activities.
Air transportation is the most popular online travel category in terms of actual sales. It recorded 20% value
sales growth in 2012, to reach RUB87 billion.
Russia: Robust performance for online travel
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
Online Travel Categories % Growth in Russia 2012-2017
Air
Hotel
Car Rental
Travel Retail
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 32 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The Russian rich continue to increase in number, although the growth rate is slowing. By 2017, over 1.7
million households in Russia will have an annual disposable income of over US$100,000.
However, middle class consumers in Russia will become increasingly important over the forecast period,
given their sheer size and the rate at which their real incomes are rising. By 2017, nearly 40% of all
Russian households will have an annual disposable income of over US$25,000.
For the Russian elite, travel is no longer a luxury, but a fundamental part of their lifestyle. For new middle
class consumers, travel abroad is a relatively new concept, and for many a first trip abroad will be to a
relatively familiar neighbouring destination.
Russia: The rise of the middle classes
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% o
f R
ussia
n H
ousehold
s
% of Russian Households with Annual Disposable Income over US$25,000 2007-2017
Average Price for Package Holidays in Russia in 2012
Below US$600
US$601-1,500
US$1,501-4,000
Above US$4,001
Source: Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR)
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 33 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Rising incomes in recent years have also driven the birth of more children. However, the fertility rate, 0f 1.7
per 1,000 population, remained below the replacement rate of 2.1 in 2012.
Increasing awareness of the influences of bad habits on health, a growing interest in healthy food and
better accessibility to health services have all been recognised as having an effect on the lifestyles of the
older population, which is predicted to grow substantially by 2020.
Russia's population will rise from 143 million in 2009 to 145 million in 2020, and, with a total annual
disposable income of US$3.4 trillion in 2020, there is enormous potential for expanding consumer
spending.
Russia: Changing population demographics
REGIONAL FOCUS
Russian Population Age Segmentation 2010-2020: '000 people
2010 2015 2020 2010-2020 % growth
Babies/Infants (0-2 years) 5,056 5,168 4,873 -3.6
Kids (3-8 years) 8,557 9,973 10,371 21.2
Tweenagers (9-12 years) 5,136 5,856 6,874 33.8
Teens (13-19 years) 11,260 9,263 10,066 -10.6
People in their 20s (20-29) 24,514 20,818 15,385 -37.2
People in their 30s (30 – 39) 20,864 22,809 24,169 15.8
Middle-aged Adults (40-64 years) 48,244 48,400 47,463 -1.6
Older Population (65+ years) 18,155 18,220 19,969 10.0
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 34 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Inbound tourism to China is expected to continue its growth in the 2012-2017 period, recording a 2.3%
CAGR, slightly higher than the 2.0% CAGR recorded in the 2007-2012 period.
Hong Kong is by far the largest source of arrivals to China, accounting for 27 million trips, that is 47% of the
57 million total arrivals recorded in 2012. Macau and Asia Pacific countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea
and Japan, are other major sources of inbound tourism flows.
Russia, the US, Australia and Western European countries are still lagging behind in terms of trips, but are
expected to record significant growth in the next five years.
China: International arrivals to continue to rise
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Hong Kong
‟000 t
rips
Arrivals to China from Hong Kong 2012/2017
2012 2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Taiwan Macau SouthKorea
Japan Russia USA Mongolia Philippines Malaysia
‟000 t
rips
Arrivals to China from Other Top Source Countries 2012/2017
2012 2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 35 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The number of outbound trips from China enjoyed strong growth between 2007 and 2012, recording an
11% CAGR. Growth is expected to be even stronger in the 2012-2017 period reaching a 15% CAGR.
This increasing outbound demand is fuelled by ongoing economic growth, rising disposable income levels
and the growing desire to travel abroad. Overseas trips are seen as a reward for hard work throughout the
year, as well as being an important middle class marker.
Hong Kong and Macau lead the ranking of outbound trips, followed by other Asia Pacific destinations, such
as South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan. However, non-Asian destinations are gaining ground. European
destinations, in particular, are expected to grow by over 20% per year in the next five years, while strong
growth will also be recorded by the US, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa
China: Outbound trips seeing double-digit growth
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Outbound Trips from China 2007-2017
„000 t
rips
Country Breakdown of Chinese Outbound Trips in 2012
Hong Kong
Macau
South Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
Singapore
Malaysia
USA
Vietnam
Other
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 36 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Hotel value sales recorded healthy growth in China in the 2010-2012 period, driven by the rise of the
inbound and, in particular, the domestic tourism market. Growth is expected to continue to be steady in the
next five years.
Despite a rush of luxury hotel building throughout the country, the Chinese hotel industry remains
dominated by budget hotels. Over 90% of properties are budget, with luxury hotels accounting for a mere
2.6% of all stock. In terms of value sales, luxury hotels accounted for 21% of total hotel sales in 2012, while
budget hotels accounted for 55%; however, the luxury segment is expected to achieve the strongest growth
over the 2012-2017 period.
Mid-priced hotels are fighting a battle against luxury and budget hotels, which are successfully acquiring
market share at their expense, with guesthouses similarly affected by the popularity of budget outlets.
China: Luxury and budget hotels gain ground
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hotel Sales in China 2007-2017
RM
B b
illio
n
Chinese Hotel Value Sales by Price Platform in 2012
Luxury
Mid-Priced
Budget
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 37 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
China currently has over half a billion internet users, corresponding to over one third of the total Chinese
population, and more than double the number in the US. Internet penetration among Chinese households
increased to 42% by the end of 2012, up from only 4% in 2000. Despite this, most Chinese travellers
continue to book their travel offline, using the internet as a research tool rather than a booking one.
A number of large players, notably internet giants Tencent and Baidu, are positioning themselves to seize a
slice of the increasingly competitive online travel market. The online travel retail market has been very
dynamic in China in recent years, due to increasing competition among the largest players, such as Ctrip,
Qunar and Elong. Flash sales company Tuangou is also playing a significant role in this market.
Rapid growth is also expected in m-commerce, with China overtaking the US in 2011 to become the
world‟s largest smartphone market in terms of units sold.
China: Internet giant
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of Internet Users in China 2007-2017
Mill
ion p
eople
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hotels Air Travel Retail
Online Travel Sales in China
2012-2017
RM
B b
illio
n
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 38 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Rising levels of disposable income have led to the rise of a large middle class in China. By 2017, 14% of
Chinese households, that is 64 million households, are expected to reach an annual disposable income
above US$25,000. This steady growth of disposable incomes is having a very significant impact on
consumption, with an especially sharp rise in discretionary goods and services, benefiting industries such
as fashion, automotive and travel. Initially, wealth was concentrated in the first-tier cities of Beijing,
Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. However, it is now spreading to second tier cities, such as
Xi‟an, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and Chongqing.
Social changes in China, particularly in regards to the participation of women in further education and
white-collar and professional employment, have significantly affected consumer behaviour. Demand for
clothing and cosmetics, the rise in holiday-taking and other leisure activities, and increased spending on
premium goods in the babies and infants market can be largely attributed to the changing socio-economic
situations of women in modern China.
China: Social changes deeply affect consumption
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% o
f C
hin
ese h
ouseh
old
s
% of Chinese Households with Annual Disposable Income over US$25,000 2007-2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 39 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Value for Money
• Many Chinese travellers are looking for value for money. Often, they want to visit as many countries as possible in a European trip in order to make the most of expensive visas.
• They are very price sensitive and appreciate hotel deals, as well as cooking facilities in travel accommodation outlets.
Travel as Status Symbol
• Overseas travel is now a key focus for the middle class Chinese consumer, who sees it as a powerful status symbol.
• The buying of branded luxury goods is a key shopping experience for Chinese tourists. Whether bought for gifts or as souvenirs, they are closely associated with status and prestige, with popular destinations for luxury shopping being New York, Paris, London and Milan.
Arts and Cultural Attractions
• Culture is an important aspect of outbound travel, with popular destinations reflecting both new and old cultural references
• Classic cultural destinations, such as Paris, Rome, London and Barcelona, as well as Mozart‟s birthplace in Austria and Shakespeare‟s birthplace in England are ever popular. Film locations are also influential, as well as music video locations for Chinese pop stars.
China: Key factors influencing long haul travel
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 40 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Brazil is expected to record strong growth in arrivals during the forecast period, and welcome a total of 7.6
million tourists in 2017. Its cultural pluralism and diversity works as a strong driver of growth, due to the
growing desire for authenticity and experiential travel, a rising trend in today‟s tourism industry.
Visitors to Brazil are predominantly driven by leisure purposes, with the leading source markets being
neighbouring Latin American countries, the US and Western Europe.
In the next few years, the country is hosting two of the world‟s most prestigious sporting events – the 2014
FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games – which are known to increase international exposure as
well as potentially the number of arrivals in the years preceding, during and following these events.
Brazil: Inbound tourism taking off
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina USA Uruguay Germany Italy Chile France Spain Paraguay Portugal
„00
0 t
rips
Top Source Countries for Arrivals to Brazil 2012/2017
2012 2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 41 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Thanks to a strong currency and a growing economy, Brazil has in recent years been a rapidly rising
source market for international departures. Given the high import tariffs in the country, foreign goods are
significantly cheaper abroad, so many Brazilians travel to shop.
The US is the most popular outbound destination for Brazilians, having overtaken Argentina in 2009.
Tourism flows to the US are predicted to show steady growth in the next five years, driven by demand for
shopping tourism. European countries are key destinations for Brazilian long haul trips, due to cultural
connections, as well as artistic attractions and shopping opportunities. Intra-regional travel to Argentina,
Uruguay and Chile is also expected to grow in the 2012-2017 period.
Volatile exchange rates and rising fuel prices, which have led to higher air fares and additional fuel
surcharges, may prove barriers to growth in departures during the forecast period.
Brazil: Where are Brazilians travelling to?
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
‟000 t
rips
Top Destinations for Brazilian Outbound Tourists 2012-2017
USA
Argentina
Uruguay
France
Spain
Portugal
Chile
Italy
Germany
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 42 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Total investment within travel accommodation is
expected to surpass R$2.4 billion in preparation for the
2014 FIFA World Cup, with over 100 new hotels being
built in 2013 and 2014 in the 12 cities hosting the
matches.
Most Brazilian cities suffer from a limited supply of hotel
rooms. This presents huge opportunities for ongoing
and sustained investment in new travel accommodation
facilities, particularly in the face of growing inbound
tourism and, especially, domestic tourism demand.
Brazil: Hotel openings boom
REGIONAL FOCUS
Key Hotel Openings in Brazil 2013/2014
Hotel City Date
Sheraton da Bahia
Hotel Salvador de Bahia February 2013
Sheraton Reserva
do Paiva Hotel
Recife
March 2014
Hilton Barra Rio de Janeiro June 2014
Fairfield Inn Porto Alegre 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014
Brazil Hotel Pipeline: New Hotels 2013-2014
hote
l outle
ts
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2013 2014
Brazil Hotel Pipeline: Additional Hotel Rooms 2013-2014
Hote
l ro
om
s
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 43 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Brazil will be host to the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the
Summer Olympics in 2016. These events are expected to
favour the take off of the country as a tourism destination.
However, in the past, major sports events sometimes
resulted in a decline in inbound tourism due to the
“displacement effect”, that is by travellers not interested in
the event preferring not to visit the country, fearing
overcrowded hotels and transportation, and higher prices.
For example, in the year of the Olympic Games in Beijing
and Athens, visitor numbers to China and Greece declined,
while in London 2012 they stagnated.
Nonetheless, the impact of mega sport events on inbound
tourism is generally considered positive. The improvement
in travel infrastructure has a positive impact on tourism in
the longer term. In addition, during these events, the
country and the cities hosting the events are in the spotlight
worldwide, and can use this opportunity to display the
beauty and attractions of the country, which can have a
durable positive impact on tourist arrivals. Two successful
examples of events improving the image of the destination
and increasing tourism flows are the Olympic Games in
Barcelona in 1992 and the FIFA World Cup in South Africa
in 2010.
Brazil: World Cup and Olympic Games effect
REGIONAL FOCUS
0% 5% 10% 15%
South Korea 2002
Japan 2002
Germany 2006
South Africa 2010
Country Arrivals % Growth in the Year of FIFA World Cups
% growth
-6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12%
Sydney 2000
Athens 2004
Beijing 2008
London 2012
Country Arrivals % Growth in the Year of the Olympic Games
% growth
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 44 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Brazil is expected to be one of the largest consumer markets and a leading global economy by the year
2020. Brazilian consumers are becoming more sophisticated, which is expected to boost demand for
services and high quality products.
If the last decade has been about the expansion of the Brazilian middle class, the coming decade is
expected to be about the ramifications of the country‟s ageing population. The old-age dependency ratio is
set to rise from 10.5% in 2012 to 13.1% in 2120. Higher incomes, better healthcare and improved diet are
leading to higher life expectancy, and Brazil will, for the first time in its history, have a substantial number of
elderly and middle-aged consumers. This is expected to result in more spending on healthcare products
and services.
Brazil: Increasingly sophisticated consumers
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% o
f B
razili
an h
ousehold
s
% of Brazilian Households with Annual Disposable Income over US$25,000 2007-2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 45 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Brazil ranks first in Latin America and fifth in the world in terms of the number
of mobile phone subscriptions and Internet users. As a result, the country is
one of the fastest growing social media markets. According to comScore, more
than 46 million Brazilians were online in 2012, and 97% of those used social
media.
Euromonitor International estimates broadband penetration (including fixed and
mobile) to reach 25% of the population by 2015.
Social media represents an attractive channel for brand building and creating
visibility for companies in Brazil, due to the behaviour of Brazilian consumers,
who trust social media posts from friends and family about what to buy, and feel
they are good sources of word-of-mouth information on brand experiences.
Brazil: Rising importance of social media
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Facebook Twitter Orkut Linked In
Most Popular Social Media Sites in Brazil in 2012
Mill
ion
users
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 46 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
2012 saw some countries in the Middle East region recovering from the effects of the Arab Spring in 2011,
which had caused many tourists to stay away, even from countries within the region that did not experience
civil unrest.
Egypt, in particular, recorded a strong 18% growth in 2012. Its arrivals were, however, still far from the 14
million recorded in 2010.
The overall performance of inbound trips to the Middle East region was, however, again negative in 2012,
recording a 5% drop, mainly due to declines in arrivals to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Syria.
On the other hand, international arrivals to the UAE increased healthily in 2012, to reach an estimated 11
million tourists. Over eight million visited Dubai, two million Abu Dhabi, and the rest the smaller emirates.
Neighboring Saudi Arabia is the top source market for UAE inbound tourism, and visitor numbers are
predicted to double over the next five years. The UAE offers a culturally similar but more relaxed tourist
destination for visiting Saudis, and is particularly popular amongst the growing young population.
Middle East: Tourism decline in the region, growth in the UAE
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Saudi Arabia UK India Russia China Kuwait USA Oman Pakistan Bahrain Germany Egypt Lebanon Iran
‟000 t
rips
Country Breakdown of Arrivals to UAE 2012/2017
2012
2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 47 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The prolonged unrest in a number of Middle Eastern and North African countries is continuing to affect
tourist arrivals, although recovery has been seen from the severe drop experienced in 2011, during the
Arab Spring.
In spite of remaining political tension, tourist arrivals to Tunisia and Egypt managed partially to recover in
2012 from the sharp fall recorded in 2011.
The danger remains mainly with the ongoing violence in Syria risking over-spilling its borders to Lebanon
and also to affect arrivals to Jordan.
Libya has vast tourism potential, with its long Mediterranean coast and Roman antiquities, but it has yet to
achieve any progress since the revolution finished in 2011.
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
13,500
15,000
Egypt Tunisia Syria Bahrain Lebanon Libya
Arrivals to MENA Countries Affected by Civil Unrest 2010-2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
„000 a
rriv
als
Middle East: Continued unrest lingering
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 48 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The Big Three Gulf airlines (Emirates, Etihad
and Qatar Airways) continue to expand their
routes, opening up new tourist sources for
the region, as well as consolidating the global
positioning of their hubs in the UAE and
Qatar. These three airlines account for 54%
of Airbus‟s current order book.
The relative weakness of European traffic
has turned their focus onto emerging
markets.
In particular, the CIS markets are growing
strongly, supported by the boom of Russian
tourists and by growth in the Ukraine market.
The expansion of low cost carriers, such as
FlyDubai and Air Arabia, is contributing to
attract tourists from Eastern European
countries including Azerbaijan, Georgia,
Serbia and Macedonia.
The low cost sector currently represents
around 9% of the total air market in the UAE,
and there is substantial room for growth in
the future.
Middle East: Big Three flying high and opening up new markets
REGIONAL FOCUS
Nov 2012: Ahmedabad
Mar 2013: Washington DC
May 2013: Amsterdam
Jun 2013: Sao Paulo
Oct 2013: Ho Chi Minh City
Dec 2012: Lyon
Dec 2012: Phuket
Feb 2013: Warsaw
Mar 2013: Algiers
Jun 2013: Tokyo Haneda
Jan 2013: Najaf, Iraq
Feb 2013: Phnom Penh
Mar 2013: Chengdu
Apr 2013: Chicago
May 2013: Salalah, Oman
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 49 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Hotels throughout the Middle East saw an improvement in 2012, as the market has on the whole stabilised,
despite ongoing problems in Syria and Egypt. Hoteliers in Egypt have reduced room rates in order to
stimulate demand and recover from 2011‟s poor performance.
The UAE continues to show the best occupancy rates for the region, due to its continued leisure appeal
and strong MICE sector. Abu Dhabi suffered a slight drop in occupancy rates due to a rush of hotel
openings, which also caused a fall in average room rates. Dubai showed the best performance for the
region, with occupancy and room rates high due to its varied and comprehensive hotel supply, which
continues to be matched by demand.
Medical tourism is becoming an important source of arrivals for the hotel sector in the UAE. 500,000
tourists visited the UAE for medical treatment in 2012, a 15% increase over 2011, with Dubai being the
medical hub in the region.
Middle East: UAE hotels benefit from MICE and medical tourism
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
UAE Egypt Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain Kuwait
US
$ m
illio
n
Hotel Sales in Selected Middle East Countries 2011-2013
2011
2012
2013
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 50 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Inbound visitors to the UAE spend the most on
accommodation, followed by shopping, with a
total of U$1.5 billion in 2012. The UAE promotes
itself as a luxury shoppers‟ paradise, with
elaborate destination malls, shopping festivals,
no sales tax and lower prices than in many
surrounding countries.
Luxury brands are a focus for incoming tourists
from all over the globe. Many top brands, such as
Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Rolex and Cartier, rely
heavily on their carefully constructed brand
images and global advertising campaigns.
The Gulf States are also keen advocates of
luxury travel, and have wealthy young
populations with high expectations of service and
quality.
Luxury travellers from the Middle East visit
regional destinations, as well as traditional longer
haul luxury resorts in Europe and Asia. Turkey
and Malaysia have seen solid growth in arrivals
from the Middle East, as the close religious ties
and good flight connections make travelling
easier.
Middle East: Luxury remains a major focus for the UAE
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US
$ m
illio
n
Inbound Tourism Expenditure Categories in UAE 2012-2017
Accommodation Shopping
Food Excursions
Entertainment Travel Within Country
Other
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 51 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The UAE is currently the fourth largest producer of oil in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC), with reserves estimated at 98 billion barrels (10% of world reserves). However, other
sectors have also driven economic growth in recent years, including trade, aviation, tourism, retail, real
estate and construction.
Dubai is expected to be the economic motor of the UAE in 2013, with real GDP growing by 5%, mainly
driven by a reprise in the real estate sector, as well as by growth in travel and tourism.
With the country recovering from the global economic crisis and the collapse of the real estate market in
Dubai, consumer confidence is high. Consumers in the UAE continue to enjoy the highest incomes in the
region, and their spending reflects that.
Middle East: UAE records highest average incomes in the region
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
United Arab Emirates Qatar Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia
Annual Disposable Income Consumer Expenditure
Per Capita Consumer Expenditure and Disposable Income in Selected GCC Countries 2012
US
$ p
er
capita
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 52 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
International arrivals to Italy grew by 1% in 2012, with the traditional markets of Western Europe and North
America still accounting for the vast majority of these trips.
However, emerging markets recorded the fastest growth rates, although from a small base. Among them,
regional markets such as Russia (up by 30% in 2012) and Poland (19%) have started to account for a
significant part of tourism flows, both surpassing one million arrivals. On the other hand, emerging markets
in Latin America and Asia Pacific are still quite modest in terms of absolute numbers.
In 2012, Japan, which is a traditional market for Italian inbound tourism, achieved healthy 12% growth.
Italy: Traditional markets still key, emerging markets growing
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Germany UK USA France Spain Netherlands Austria Switzerland Belgium Poland
Arrivals to Italy from Leading Countries of Origin 2010-2012
2010 2011 2012
„000 a
rriv
als
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 53 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
International arrivals to Italy are expected to continue to increase during the next five years, to reach 52
million by 2017, driven by the growth expected in the economy and in tourism flows globally.
However, the 2.2% CAGR forecast for arrivals to Italy in the 2012-2017 period is lower than the forecast
global CAGR of over 4%, and also less than the European CAGR of 3%.
Emerging markets are expected to be major drivers of growth over 2013-2017, with Russia and other
Eastern European markets generating the most new arrivals among them in absolute terms. China, Brazil,
India and other emerging markets in Asia Pacific and Latin America are expected to acquire a more
significant position among source markets compared to their minor role in the review period.
Growth is expected to be stronger in the second part of the forecast period, due to a recovery in regional
flows as the economy in Western Europe stabilises.
Italy: International arrivals to continue to rise
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
„000 t
rips
Arrivals to Italy 2007-2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 54 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Outbound trips from Italy were stable in 2012; however, outbound expenditure declined by 2%. Short haul
trips to European destinations recorded the best performance ( up by 5%) favoured by the value for money
they offer compared to several domestic destinations. Trips to long haul destinations, on the other hand,
declined by 7%, due to many travellers opting for less expensive holiday options.
Domestic tourism suffered the most from the recession in the country, recording a decline of 6% in terms of
trips, due to competition from short haul foreign destinations, as well as to many people opting for
“staycations”, due to shrinking family budgets.
Italy: Drop in domestic trips, international departures stable
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
„000 t
rips
Departures from Italy 2007-2017 Departures from Italy by Country 2012
Spain
France
Germany
UK
Croatia
Greece
USA
Austria
Egypt
Switzerland
Tunisia
Other Destinations
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 55 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Italy was in recession in 2012, with real GDP declining by 2.4%. The country has been losing in global
competitiveness over the last 10 years, and is characterised by stagnant productivity levels. Among the
factors affecting Italy‟s performance are a lack in innovation in production, a rigid labour market and
inefficiency in public services.
Austerity measures implemented in 2012 to tackle the public debt crisis resulted in a rise in taxation to an
estimated average of 45% of income. The impact of recession and austerity measures on consumer
confidence and spending was significant, with average spending declining significantly in 2012. A recovery
is forecast from 2014, favoured by growth in the Western European markets.
Italy: Decline in consumer confidence and expenditure
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
€ p
er
capita
Per Capita Consumer Expenditure in Italy 2007-2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Italian Unemployment Rate % 2007-2017
% o
f w
ork
forc
e
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 56 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Low cost flights are clearly winning in terms of value growth against schedule airlines in Europe. All the
main European markets are forecast to see healthy growth in low cost flights over the next five years.
In order to remain profitable, many schedule airlines have resorted to using smaller aircraft, reducing the
frequency of many flights and cancelling some unprofitable routes. Moreover, many of them are veering
towards a hybrid model between schedule and low cost airline, adopting several practises typical of no frills
carriers.
After the collapse of Sicily-based Wind Jet in August 2012, there are only two remaining Italian LCCs:
AirOne and Blu Express. These airlines, however, are struggling to compete against the leading European
LCCs, Ryanair and easyJet, which play a major and growing role in the Italian air market.
Italy: Low cost carriers the winning model in Europe
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Netherlands Spain Germany Austria France Norway Turkey Ireland Italy Sweden
%C
AG
R
Schedule and Low Cost Airlines % Value CAGR in Selected European Countries 2012-2017
Low Cost Schedule
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 57 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Online travel sales grew robustly in Italy between 2007 and 2012, achieving a 17% CAGR. The rise in
internet penetration in the country played an important role, as did increased confidence in the security of
online payments. As the sector becomes more mature, growth is expected to be slower but still strong, with
a 7.5% CAGR between 2012 and 2017.
Booking.com, Odigeo, Expedia and Lastminute.com were the largest online travel agencies operating in
the country in 2012, and were also among the top travel retailers overall in Italy.
Traditional tour operators are currently facing the threat of the increasing popularity of the online channel.
As in other countries, the way forward for them appears to be to embrace new technologies, including the
mobile channel, and to differentiate their products from the offer of competitors.
Italy: Shift to the online channel
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Online Travel Sales in Italy 2007-2017
€ m
illio
n
Note: the chart refers to online value sales of transportation, travel accommodation,
car rental and tourist attractions through intermediaries and direct suppliers.
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 58 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
International arrivals to India witnessed
steady growth in 2012, of nearly 11%.
Due to the value of Indian rupee falling
sharply against the US dollar,
accommodation and shopping offered
extremely good value for money for many
travellers, which favoured inbound
tourism.
The US and the UK maintained their
positions as leading source countries.
However, neighbouring countries, such as
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, witnessed
healthy growth and are likely to continue
this growth, particularly for short visits to
India.
Asian countries such as Singapore, Laos,
Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to
show increased arrivals, due to their
growing economies and aided by the
recent introduction of visa upon arrival
processes. The Indian tourist board is
also heavily promoting Buddhism-related
tourism for travellers from these countries.
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Netherlands
UAE
Pakistan
Italy
South Africa
Germany
South Korea
France
Singapore
Japan
Nepal
Australia
Canada
Malaysia
Sri Lanka
UK
USA
Arrivals to India by Country 2012 and 2017
2017 2012
„000 trips
India: Strong inbound tourism growth in 2012
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 59 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Hotels performed well in 2012 in India, as occupancy rates finally surged after the Mumbai attacks in 2008.
Budget hotels are showing strong growth, with corporate clients being one of the main reasons. Increased
flight prices in 2012 resulted in companies cutting back on their accommodation expenses, with the majority
of business tourists staying in budget hotels, which provide good services at much more reasonable prices.
Among these budget hotel chains, Lemon Tree, Ginger and Accor Formule1 are performing strongly. In
response to the steady budget demand, luxury hotels were forced to drop their rates in order to attract
domestic business travellers.
Medical tourism is also a major driver of hotel growth, due to India‟s reputation for offering good quality
medical services at low prices. This trend is expected to grow, as medical tourism in general continues to
expand in the next five years.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
India Hotel Sector % Growth for Key Parameters 2012-2017
Hotel Sales
Hotel Online Sales
No. of Hotel Outlets
India: Budget hotels gain ground
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 60 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y
ea
r-o
n-y
ea
r gro
wth
India Air Passengers Carried by Category % Growth 2012-2017
Schedule
Low Cost
Charter
The air transportation sector was extremely dynamic in 2012, and healthy growth is expected to continue
over the 2013-2017 period. The industry also witnessed soaring prices for domestic flights, due to
increased fuel prices and higher airport authority costs.
The grounding of the Kingfisher airline resulted in a gain both for other scheduled airlines – Air India and
Jet Airways – as well as low cost carriers Spice Jet and Indigo.
Indigo maintained its market leader position amongst low cost carriers, followed by Spice Jet. It also
emerged as the largest fleet size airline in India in 2012, adding 19 aircraft, and continues to have
expansion plans in terms of its fleet size for 2013.
The Indian government continued to try and obtain Air India‟s entry into the Star Alliance, which will be
achieved later in 2013, due to the improved performance of the airline.
India: Steady growth forecast for air transportation
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 61 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
The Indian diaspora scattered around
the globe is a huge driver of
international travel, both inbound and
outbound. As well as the estimated 22
million overseas non-resident Indians,
there are numerous second and third
generation foreign residents who
maintain strong ties with their family
homeland.
A recent study by Amadeus estimated
that 43% of Indian travellers cited
visiting friends and relatives as the main
reason for their trip.
This kind of tourism is noticeably
different from other forms of travel.
Accommodation costs are often non-
existent, and trips tend to be longer than
average.
The global nature of the Indian diaspora
has assisted in the development of air
links, with the GCC region particularly
well-served by low cost connections.
Top Locations for Indians Living Abroad: June 2012
Country Population
1. USA 2,245,239
2. Malaysia 2,050,000
3. Saudi Arabia 1,789,000
4. UAE 1,750,000
5. Sri Lanka 1,601,600
6. UK 1,500,000
7. South Africa 1,218,000
8. Canada 1,000,000
9. Mauritius 882,220
10. Oman 718,642
11. Singapore 670,000
12. Nepal 600,000
13. Kuwait 579,390
14. Trinidad & Tobago 551,500
15. Qatar 500,000
Source: Ministry of Overseas Indians Affairs
India: The importance of the Indian diaspora to travel
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 62 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Niche tourism represents a growing segment of Indian domestic and outbound tourism. The average age of
domestic and inbound travellers is declining, and tourists are now looking for more exciting vacations and
not just relaxation.
Key activities include photography, wildlife, heritage, polo, medical and pilgrim tourism. The latter has long
been popular in India, but new luxury tours have been introduced to attract wealthy religious travellers.
These include the Mahaparinirvana Express, which has recently expanded its run to visit Buddhist sites in
Odisha, as well as those in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The train company Indian Railway Catering and
Tourism Corporation has linked up with luxury hotels at Bodh Gaya, Kushinagar, Gorakhpur and Lumbini
(Nepal) to host tourists overnight.
Polo has a rich heritage in India, and is one of the niche tourism sectors supported by the Indian Ministry of
Tourism. The government of Manipur organised the sixth Manipur Polo International tournament between
24 and 29 November 2012, with the aim of promoting polo tourism in the state.
Domestic niche tourism has been helped in recent years by the growing number of DINKs (Double Income
No Kids). These couples have high disposable incomes and are keen to spend on travel, as well as health
and wellness and consumer electronics.
India: Tourism niches growing
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 63 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Fears about visitor displacement due to
the major events held in the UK in 2012
were well founded, however, visitor
numbers rose although by just 0.3%.
The success of the Olympics and the
Diamond Jubilee did, however, raise the
nation‟s profile on the world stage, but
the exact legacy of the former is yet to be
determined.
European countries remain the most
important source market for the UK, and
continued austerity measures and the
ongoing Eurozone crisis is impacting
arrivals. Visitors from the BRICs and
other emerging countries are becoming
increasingly important, despite current
numbers being relatively small.
Inbound tourism could also be negatively
affected by the further rise in Air
Passenger Duty (APD) in April 2013.
Tourists to the UK pay APD on their
return flights.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Norway
Japan
Austria
USA
Italy
France
Denmark
Canada
Belgium
Spain
Brazil
Netherla…
Germany
Sweden
Switzerland
Russia
Australia
Poland
India
China
% CAGR
Arrivals to the UK from Top Source Markets % CAGR 2012-2017
United Kingdom: Building on 2012‟s stability
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 64 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Outbound travel in 2012 remained at the same level seen in the previous year, with just over 55 million
trips. However, spending was up by 5%. The wet weather during the summer caused a rush of bookings to
sunnier climes at the end of August, with travel retailers discounting to attract consumers.
Package holidays remained popular, due to consumer concerns about unexpected costs, as well as
increased flexibility within the packages being provided by retailers. UK travellers are still concerned about
the uncertain economic situation, stagnant salaries, rising inflation and the risk of redundancy, and whilst
overseas travel is still a must for many consumers, caution remains.
The most popular destinations are Spain and France, although a decline in departures to these
destinations is expected in the next five years, due to the growing appeal of less traditional countries.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Spain France USA Ireland Italy Germany Greece Portugal Netherlands Poland
‟000 t
rips
Outbound Trips to Top Destination Countries for UK Travellers 2007/2017
2007 2017
United Kingdom: Outbound travel remains steady
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 65 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Domestic trips in the UK showed a
minimal decline in 2012, dropping by
0.3% at 132 million trips. However,
expenditure rose by 4%. Trips of less
than three days accounted for two thirds
of all visits.
The “staycation” trend continues to thrive,
due to one of the longest economic
downturn in years. Rising unemployment,
rising inflation and stagnant salaries have
led many people to holiday at home.
In January 2013, VisitEngland launched a
new Facebook app which is named “101
Things To Do Before You Go Abroad”,
which aims to target domestic tourism by
building on the popular “bucket list”
concept. It includes many things which
can be done in England, such as star
gazing in the Europe‟s first International
Dark Sky Reserve in Exmoor‟s National
Park, and climbing Scafell Pike, which is
England‟s highest peak.
Isle of Man
Channel Islands
North Ireland
Northeast
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
Wales
Yorkshire
London
Northwest
Scotland
Southeast
Southwest
0 5 10 15 20
% share
Regional % Share of UK Domestic Trips in 2012
United Kingdom: Domestic trips stagnant
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 66 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
UK consumers are increasingly passionate about all things food-related. Food is now more celebrated,
greener, healthier and grown in more urban spaces. Recent scares within the UK food industry, such as the
contaminated meat scandal, have reinforced the importance of traceability and cooking from scratch.
Additionally, the continued rise in obesity levels in the UK is keeping food on the government‟s agenda.
Within tourism, this has translated into gastronomic holidays, both domestic and international, where the
focus of the holiday is food. In the UK, food or culinary tourism is worth an estimated US$8 billion each
year.
Traditional cookery courses whilst visiting the destination country are still popular, but with a growing
emphasis on less familiar ethnic foods. France, Spain and Italy remain favourites, but Morocco, Thailand,
Mexico and China are expanding their culinary tourism offerings.
United Kingdom: Consumer passion for food
REGIONAL FOCUS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
£ b
illio
n
UK Consumer Expenditure on Food 2007-2017
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 67 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
With retail volumes of smartphones twice those of traditional mobile phones in 2012, UK consumers are
clearly choosing smartphones as preferred their handheld device.
Within travel, smartphones offer m-commerce capabilities, as well as the possibility of online interaction
with travel companies. In order to have a successful presence in this rising channel, investment will be
needed to improve customers‟ booking and online experience.
Tourist attractions will be a focus for increased growth in mobile sales, as consumers on the go are often
able to get a better deal online. The mobile channel will also strengthen the role of social media within the
travel accommodation sector, as an increasing number of travellers are expected to use independent UK
consumer review sites via mobile before making their hotel reservations.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
„000 u
nits
Retail Volumes for UK Smartphones and Feature Phones 2007-2017
Smartphones Feature Phones
United Kingdom: The smartphone nation
REGIONAL FOCUS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 68 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
2011 figures are provisional and based on part-
year estimates. The forecast period under review
covers the period 2011 to 2016, inclusive.
All US dollar data cited in this report, historical and
forecast, at national, regional and global level are
shown at fixed 2011 exchange rates. As such, any
impact from currency and/or exchange rate
volatility are discounted.
Arrivals refers to international tourists visiting
another country for at least 24 hours not exceeding
12 months, and staying in collective or private
accommodation for leisure, business, visiting
friends/family and other (religious, medical,
education etc). Measured in trips.
Incoming tourist receipts are classified as
payments by international inbound tourists,
including fares paid to national carriers for
international transport and any other prepayments
made for goods or services received in the country
of destination.
Departures refers to the number of residents that
travel abroad from their country of residence to
another destination country for leisure or business
purposes. Residents include students residing abroad
for a period of over 12 months. Destination reflects
the main departure destination recorded at the
country of residence. Measured in trips.
Outgoing tourism expenditure is spending on travel
and tourism products and services by outbound
tourists abroad, including their payments to foreign
carriers for international transport.
Definitions for industry-specific and other
terminology/abbreviations used in this report:
CAGR – compound annual growth rate
IMF – International Monetary Fund
MENA – Middle East North Africa
ADR – average daily room rate
RevPAR – revenue per available room
LCC – low cost carrier
OTA – online travel agent
Data parameters and report definitions
REPORT DEFINITIONS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 69 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
Hotel outlets that provide lodging include
independent and chained operators as well as all
company owned, leased, managed and franchised
outlets. Aparthotels are included.
Luxury: includes luxury, upper upscale and upscale
chained and independent outlets and their
corresponding sales. Includes 4 to 5 stars.
Mid-priced: includes mid-priced chained and
independent outlets and their corresponding sales
that may or may not serve food and beverages.
Includes 3 stars.
Budget: includes budget chained and independent
outlets and their corresponding sales. Includes 0-2
stars.
Tourism expenditure on shopping includes
spending by international and domestic tourists on
food and non-food purchases. Duty-free is
included.
Air transport includes schedule, charter and low
cost carriers. Excludes all transit.
Rail covers travel by passenger train, excluding
freight and car transport. Includes cablecars.
Covers what is spent on rail in that country by both
international and domestic tourists.
Online travel retail sales include traditional travel
retailers including travel agents, tour operators and
exchange service providers that have a web
platform for sales. Also includes online travel
agents, brokers and intermediaries.
Cruise includes sales of cruises through tour
operators and travel agents. Includes flights and
other pre-paid products/services such as spas,
food, drinks, entertainment, excursions etc.
Package holidays include traditional package
holidays which are fixed by tour operators and
travel agents and include transportation,
accommodation along with a choice of food
options. Includes dynamically packaged holidays.
Spas include destination spas, hotel/resort spas,
and others.
Category definitions
REPORT DEFINITIONS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 70 FORECAST REVISIT FOR THE GLOBAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
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