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POM-QM QFORECASTING
Prepared by: Hanife DemiralpPrepared by: Hanife DemiralpSource: POM-QM for Windows
V i 3Version 3
FORECASTINGFORECASTINGzTime Series:
Suppose that data is given in the following table and forecast the demand for the week of February 14.
We are using (n=2) 2 k iweek moving average
Absolute Percentage gError = |Error| \ Demand
After 2 week (n=2) we have forecast in Error is =we have forecast in third week. Demand - Forecast
Example 2: Weighted Moving Average
Forecast for week 7 is (0.6*120) + (0 4*110)=116(0.4 110) 116
Forecast the demand for the week February 1414
Example 3: Exponential Smoothing
Value for smoothing constant, alpha, is 0.5
You can enter any b i thi lnumber in this column
for forecast. If you enter no number, starting forecast isstarting forecast is taken as starting demand.
Forecast the demandForecast the demand for the week of February 14
Example 4: Exponential thi ith t dsmoothing with trend
If beta is 0, single gexponential smoothing is performed. If beta is positive exponential smoothing with trend is performed
Forecast values Error is =Forecast values Error is Demand Adjusted Forecast
Example 5: Trend Analysis
Line that fits the data best is: y=104.33 + 1.857*x