Forecasting Experience in Tamil Nadu

By

A.D.Thirumoorthy

Chief Technical Advisor

Indian Wind Power Association

adtmoorthy@gmail.com

9965549894

mailto:adtmoorthy@gmail.com

TNERC’s affirming the role of Forecasting in maximum evacuation in Tamil Nadu

Comparison of Evacuation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

23

/10

/20

17

00

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

0:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

01

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

1:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

02

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

2:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

03

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

3:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

04

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

4:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

05

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

5:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

06

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

6:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

07

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

7:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

08

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

8:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

09

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 0

9:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

10

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

0:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

11

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

1:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

12

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

2:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

13

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

3:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

14

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

4:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

15

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

5:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

16

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

6:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

17

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

7:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

18

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

8:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

19

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 1

9:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

20

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 2

0:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

21

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 2

1:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

22

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 2

2:3

0:0

0

23

/10

/20

17

23

:00

:00

2

3/1

0/2

01

7 2

3:3

0:0

0

Schedule Vs Actuals

#REF! Dayahead Schedule in MW

Actual Generation in MW

Error Range 2016-17 2017-18

±1% 8.4% 8.0%

±2% 25.5% 35.2%

±3% 43.5% 52.5%

±4% 59.4% 68.6%

±5% 70.4% 78.2%

±6% 78.3% 84.3%

±7% 83.7% 88.6%

±8% 88.0% 91.8%

±9% 91.0% 94.3%

±10% 94.4% 96.6%

>±10% 5.6% 3.4%

Data

Courtesy NIWE

TN Experience during 2017 Centralised Forecast for 12 Months Sub station wise Forecast for 2017

TN Experience during 2017 Centralised Forecast

Sub station wise Forecast

Maximum and Minimum Wind Generation Days are Managed with without Back down

Denmark Experience

Experience from USA

Summary- Centralized Forecasting will suit Western

Australia because

1

2

3

4

The power system is centrally managed

SCADA systems exists and works well

Higher accuracy from all SCADA data together

System management can tailor the Forecast to their needs

5 Less burden on individual wind farm generators 18

Observation by NREL regarding Centralized Forecasting

1 Centralized

Forecasting uses

consistent

methodology which

will lead to consistent

results

2 Grid operator has

access to data which

can be used to

improve centralized

forecasting – no

proprietory or

confidentiality issues

3 Economies of scale

thus reducing the cost

of Forecasting

compared to

decentralized

Forecasting

Scope for Future improvement

Near Accurate Real time Generation Data can made available now

Accurate Available Capacity can be furnished to the forecaster in future

Ramping Forecast (Rate of Change) is possible and will be a good information for the Grid Operators for managing Net load ramps