Forecasting-Numericals

• The following table shows the demand for the past 12 months forecast the demand for the 13th Month using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constants as 0.3 and 0.5

Month Demand 1 18.52 18.43 15.64 18.25 16.16 17.57 20.48 17.89 18.1

10 19.311 18.612 18.4

• Answers : 1) when alpha = 0.3 ,forecast = 18.48 MSE =

2.042) Alpha = 0.5 ,Forecast = 18.54 , MSE = 2.27

2) The following table gives sales of a product for the past 8 years

Year Sales 1 1152 1263 1184 1285 1306 1327 1288 134

• 3) The foll data gives the demand for a product in the year 2006 .Forecast the demand for Jan 07 by taking alpha = 0.1, 0.5 and 0.9

• Calculate the corresponding MSE s • Comment on the results

Yr 06 Demand Jan 190Feb 185Mar 198Apr 195May 205June 210July 195Aug 190Sep 210Oct 206Nov 218Dec 215

• A) f= 200.20 mse = 160.94 • B) f = 213.06 , mse = 91.96 • C) f = 215.18 , mse = 98.8