Foreign Policy CHAPTER FOUR Dr. Clayton Thyne PS 235-001: World
Politics Spring 2008 Goldstein & Pevehouse, International
Relations, 8/e Student notes version Slide 2 Making Foreign Policy
Purpose: Foreign policies (def): Slide 3 Making Foreign Policy
Comparative foreign policy Study of foreign policy in various
states in order to 3 approaches: How does size, wealth and dem FP
decisions? How do populations, natural resources and technology FP
decisions? How does a states political culture and history FP
decisions? Foreign policy outcomes result from multiple forces at
various levels of analysis. Slide 4 Models of Decision Making
Rational model Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative
importance, calculate the costs and benefits of each possible
course of action, and then choose the one with the highest benefits
and lowest costs. EU war = Pr victory (U victory ) (1-Pr victory
)(C losing ) Role of uncertainty Accepting of risk versus averse to
risk Slide 5 Models of Decision Making Organizational process model
Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model Slide 6 Individual
Decision Makers Study of individual decision making revolves around
the question of rationality. Difficulties of oversimplification We
can - Slide 7 Individual Decision Makers Beyond individual
idiosyncrasies, individual decision making diverges from the
rational model in at least three systematic ways: 1.Decision makers
suffer from 2.Affective bias: 3.Cognitive bias: Slide 8 Individual
Decision Makers Two specific modifications of the rational model of
decision making have been proposed to accommodate psychological
realities. Bounded rationality Prospect theory Slide 9 Estimates of
Probabilities of Death From Various Causes CauseSubject
EstimatesStatistical Estimates Heart Disease0.220.34 Cancer0.180.23
Other Natural Causes0.330.35 All Natural Causes0.730.92
Accident0.320.05 Homicide0.100.01 Other Unnatural Causes0.110.02
All Unnatural Causes0.530.08 Slide 10 Group Psychology Group
dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but they can also
introduce new sources of irrationality into the decision-making
process. Positive: Negative: Group psychology: Groupthink (def):
Groups tend to be overly Slide 11 Figure 4.3 Slide 12 Crisis
Management Crises (def): Stress amplifies bias Rules are often
circumvented Slide 13 Domestic Politics Foreign policy is shaped
not only by the internal dynamics of individual and group decision
making but also by the states and societies within which decision
makers operate. Slide 14 Bureaucracies Bureaucracies: Diplomats
Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign
service, of diplomats in embassies in foreign capitals Includes
Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats
Interagency tensions Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on
foreign policy challenges the notion of states as unitary actors in
the international system. Slide 15 Interest Groups Interest groups
(def): Lobbying The process of Three important elements: 1. 2. 3.
Slide 16 The Military Industrial Complex Def: Response to the
growing importance of technology Encompasses a variety of
constituencies, each of which has an interest in military spending
Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific
institutes that receive military research contracts Revolving door
problem: PACS from the military industry Slide 17 Public Opinion
Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the citizens of a
state Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies than
in authoritarian governments In democracies, public opinion
generally has less effect on foreign policy than on domestic
policy. Slide 18 Figure 4.4 Slide 19 Legislatures Conduit through
which interest groups and public opinion can wield influence
Presidential systems; separate elections Parliamentary systems;
political parties are dominant
