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Foresight 101
Thinking Like a Futurist
Garry Golden, Lead Futurist
2004-2014 vs 2015 – 2025
More or less change ahead?
In the News
GE Global Research has created an internal investment group of 100 employees empowered with $5K each to invest in Kickstarter™ or other crowd-funding projects that could disrupt customer experiences in key industrial sectors.
True False
Learning from Lower Barriers to Entry in Product Development
Signals of Emerging Capabilities & Market Demand
Run Your Own Campaign: Empower Intrapreneurs
Fantasy VC Day Borrow from the fun of fantasy games - and the collective intelligence approach of prediction markets.
Conduct Half-day Session Present Startups
(10 mins; 5 slides) Colleagues vote by
investing their currency or Company Draft
Discuss implications for industries and clients
Play out over 1 year of growth
Spend a half-day thinking about how colleagues might invest resources
The Manufacturing Institute is creating a Badge System for skills and achievements needed to be successful in today’s Advanced Manufacturing workplace
True False
LEARNING CULTURE FOR OURSELVES & TEAMS
Dynamics of Building a Learner Culture & Measuring Workforce Readiness
LEARNING CULTURE FOR OURSELVES & TEAMS
Emerging Standards: Connecting Learning to Business Challenges
Event Tracking “I did this…”
Learning Record Stores
= L&D Workforce Readiness Collaboration &
Social Learning Trend Analysis
AGENDA
Taking Action Foresight as Culture Foresight as Strategy
Foresight 101
What is a “Futurist”?
FORESIGHT 101: CONE OF PLAUSIBILITY
Expected future
Past Present
Plan A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario E
Planning Product Lines for Multiple Outcomes & Multiple Horizons
FORESIGHT 101: FOUR FUTURES APPROACH
Continued Growth Decline / Collapse
Disciplined / Constrained Transformed
?
Imagining Four Futures for Industries, Companies & Products
* Jim Dator, University of Hawaii
FOUR FUTURES STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
Continued Growth Decline / Collapse
Constrained Transformed
What challenges must we overcome?
Where can we redefine our category experience?
What do we need to continue doing well?
What must we unlearn to avoid our fate?
Clearly Communicate Risk & Opportunities for Your Product Portfolio
AGENDA
Taking Action Foresight 101 Foresight as Culture Foresight as Strategy
FORESIGHT: PRACTICAL VS CULTURAL
Foresight as Strategy vs Foresight as Culture
Part One: Horizon Scanning via Signals Team Foresight as Culture – Embracing New Assumptions
Part Two: Aligning Talent to Market Transitions Foresight as Strategy – Managing Hype & Disruption
What trends are shaping the future?
How and where do you look for signals of change?
STRATEGIC BENEFITS OF HORIZON SCANNING
Inputs (Horizon Scanning) + Testing Assumptions + Innovative Thinking
Reframing Problems
Culture Change
Surface Risk & Uncertainty
Forming a Signals Team Signal Inputs → Innovation Outputs
SCANNING BY S.T.E.E.P. CATEGORIES
S.T.E.E.P. Categories Society Technology Environment Economics Politics
Search more broadly than your competitors
S.T.E.E.P. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Society (Demographics – Culture)
Demographic Transitions ‘Pear-shaped’ Societies with Potential Demographic Dividends
Aging Populations Workforce; Family; Consumer spending; Healthcare costs
Gender and Family Structure Dynamics Women: Educational Attainment; % in Workforce
Shifting Social Norms & Values Urbanization vs Rural Retreat (De-urbanization)
Bifurcation splits rural-metros across China – Africa – India
SIGNAL DETECTION AND MILESTONE MONITORING
2014 2018 2020
??? ???
Long-term Goal: Quick Scenario-based Thinking from a Detected Signal
???
SIGNAL (SCAN HIT) CRITERIA & CONSIDERATIONS
Criteria for signals (scan hits): Source Credibility Newness or Uniqueness Degree of Uncertainty Degree of Impact Momentum
(e.g. converging, slowing down, speeding up)
Effect on Scenario (e.g. more likely, less likely)
Develop quick filters for signal (scan hit) relevance and impact
What signals led to this lagging indicator
of change?
CONSIDERING SIGNAL IMPACT ON INDUSTRY SECTORS
Business Implications Translated into industry language: Does it impact barrier to entry? Can it scale? Does it change industry structure? Does it impact client user experience? Does it impact enterprise IT? Does it challenge existing Talent Development strategies? Does it influence entry or exit strategies for investors? Does it lead to regulatory uncertainties? Does it have a clear business model and defensible moat? Does it push incumbents into innovators dilemma corner?
Imagine describing the signal to your clients
Scan Hits per Month Tagged on
Scanning Goals
Analysis & Sharing: ‘Best of’ Scan Hits
Products
Lightning Talks
Letter from Leaders
START A SIGNALS TEAM
Shaping Organizational Culture Around Multiple Time Horizons
Engagement Programs
Establish Resource Base
HORIZON SCANNING – ACTION STEP #1
Identify 10 Non-Industry Conferences to Explore First Friday Recaps: Lightning Rounds Individuals Report Out
on Relevant Findings [10 minutes; 10 Slides]
Alt: Screencast Delivery
How do we diffuse insights across our teams?
HORIZON SCANNING – ACTION STEP #2
How do we diffuse insights across our teams?
Create a Mix Tape of Video and Links to: 10 Must Watch Presentation
HORIZON SCANNING – ACTION STEP #3
Engagement via Embedded or Artifact-based Futures
Learn more: extrapolationfactory.com
HORIZON SCANNING – ACTION STEP #3
Engagement via Embedded or Artifact-based Futures
FORESIGHT IN PRACTICE
Foresight as Strategy vs Foresight as Culture
Part One: Forming Signals Team Foresight as Culture – Embracing New Assumptions
Part Two: Align Talent to Market Transitions Foresight as Strategy – Managing Hype & Disruption
MANAGING HYPE & DISRUPTION
Foresight Frameworks for Disruptive and Non –linear Change
What trends are shaping the future?
How do you see data changing your product
portfolio and/or business?
DATA DRIVES ADAPTIVE SERVICE DESIGN: 2014 - 2025 Assumption to Explore: Connected Devices Drive Behavior Change
Personal Data Mainstreaming of
Quantified Self Culture
Connected Device Data Products that
Track, Learn & Change Behavior
Exploring Implications: Learning Machines & Recommendation-based Products
ERA TRANSITIONS LED BY DATA-DRIVEN PRODUCT DEV C
om
pet
itiv
e A
dva
nta
ge
Complexity of Data & Relationship Management
Descriptive Insights What happened?
Predictive Insights What might happen?
Prescriptive Insights What should happen? Products
that Learn
Exploring Implications
Co
mp
etit
ive
Ad
van
tage
Complexity of Data & Relationship Management
Descriptive Insight
Transaction History This is last month’s statement
Predictive Insight
Budget & Spending Forecast This is what we think you will spend this week
Prescriptive Insight
Personal Spending Goals This is your budget for dinner
ERA TRANSITIONS LED BY DATA-DRIVEN PRODUCT DEV
Startups Leading the Culture Change of Prescriptive Service Design
ERA TRANSITION LED BY ALTERNATIVES & UNDERPERFOMERS
*Bank Alternatives!
Rethinking Service Design & Money Management
Exploring Implications
Acquired by
Acquisitions, Licensing or Internal Application Development
How would we gain this ‘recommendation’ based capability? Test its viability?
ADAPTIVE CONNECTED DEVICES
Data-driven Automation and Adaptive Work Experiences
Social Norms & Expectations: Connected Devices Products that Learn - Adaptive & Outcomes-focused
ADAPTIVE CONNECTED DEVICES
Customer Relationships based on ‘Prescriptive’ Service Design
Products Designed for Flow Experiences Adaptive Experiences & Outcomes-focused
CONNECTED DEVICES & BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION
Managed Services Business Models
CloverNet Operations Customer Experience
Staff Productivity
Products Designed to Improve User Behavior How do we rethink our solutions set in the coming age of product-based instruction & on-demand learning in manufacturing & retail work settings? Shift: POS to Point of Learning Devices
CONNECTED DEVICES & BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION
Internet of Things (IoT) & Machine to Machine (M2M) Business Models
Exploring Connected Products Partnership
What trends are shaping the future?
Natural Language Interactions
How do you see artificial intelligence transforming your products?
RISE OF INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS Assumption: Science Fiction is Becoming Reality
Popular Images of the Intelligent Assistant
Today’s Headlines as Signals of Change: AI on Demand
PRODUCTS (& PROCESSES) THAT LEARN
True False
Watson & Wealth Advisory Services:
RISE OF INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS Assumption: Natural Language Product Experiences Become Ubiquitous
Intelligent Assistants in the Real World
RISE OF INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS
If you look at what Apple is doing with 'Siri,' what IBM is doing with 'Watson,' what Google is doing with 'Now,‘ (and Microsoft with ‘Cortano’) it is clear that the most powerful technology companies are investing immense resources to make virtual intelligent assistants ubiquitous before the end of the decade. -Daniel Nadler, CEO of Kensho
Intelligent Assistants for Financial Services
INTELLIGENT ASSISTANT AS SERVICE Assumption: Contextual Experiences Lead the Transition
Cognitive-Computing-as-a-Service
INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS FOR PRODUCT DEVELOP & USE
Human + Software Agent Leads to the
Best Business Decisions & Product Experiences
Taking Action Foresight as Culture Foresight as Strategy
Foresight 101
I want to become a Futurist “We need to be ahead of these trends! Sign me up!!”
Your Job: Socializing Ideas Start a Signals Team
(Social, Technology, Environment, Economy, Politics)
Create Monthly or Quarterly
Programs to Share Insights
I want to Encourage Others “Interesting stuff. No time, but I want to empower my team.”
Your Job: Create Conditions to Support an Intrapreneurial Culture
Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships
Establish Programs for Risk-taking: Failfaire & Grand Challenges
CIF
I am not convinced by this snake oil salesman “Not our future. Let’s get back to basics.”
Your Job: Show how futuristic scenarios can be wrong
Gather, Synthesize & Challenge These Assumptions
Rally Existing Partners & Stakeholders to Return to a Golden Era of Product Development
FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKS & TECHNIQUES
Futures Wheel Organization Assessment
Appendix: Foresight Resources
HISTORY & EVOLUTION OF FORESIGHT
A Domain with Many Names: Futures Studies, Futurism and Strategic Foresight
1950s Scenario-Thinking
1970s Systems Thinking
1930s Social-Technological Change
1980s Strategy as Competitive Advantage
William Ogburn Herman Kahn Club of Rome (Growth) McKinsey/BCG
FUNDAMENTAL STAGES OF FORESIGHT
• Visioning
• Planning & Goals
• Organizational Change
• Creation of New Market Demand
• Forecasts (Extrapolation-based) Most likely future…
• Scenarios (Discontinuity-based) What if….?
• Idea Generation
• Application Assessment & Validation
• Trend & Emerging Issues Analysis
• Horizon Scanning STEEP Categories Society Technology Economics Environment Politics
Identifying & Monitoring Change
Exploring Implications
Communicating the Need for Change
Foresight as Strategy vs Foresight as Culture
FORESIGHT AS CULTURE VS STRATEGY
Shaping Organizational Culture Around Multiple Time Horizons
Here & Now
1-3 Years
On-the-Horizon 3-7 years
Over–the-Horizon
Beyond 7 Years
Planning Horizon Focus on Execution
Strategic Horizons Focus on Learning & Exploring Implications
FORESIGHT TOOLS
Qualitative Focus: Scanning Scenarios Simulations & Games Backcasting Genius Forecasting Morphological Analysis Role-playing Ambient Futures Casual Layered Analysis Futures Wheel Relevance Tree Appreciative Inquiry
Quantitative
Trend Extrapolation Benchmarking Patent Analysis Systems Dynamics Probability Forecasting Monte Carlo Models
Qual-Quant Hybrid
Delphi Survey Cross Impact Analysis Survey / Focus Group Agent Modeling CA Systems Modeling Decision Modeling Gartner Hype Cycle Text Mining S-Curve Analysis Field Anomaly Relaxation Roadmapping Fisher-Pry Analysis
FORESIGHT ASSESSMENT
Assessing Current Foresight Capabilities for Strategy and Culture
Assess foresight capabilities for: Leadership Framing Planning Scanning Forecasting Visioning
Corporate Foresight Maturity Models
By Terry Grim By Rene Rohrbeck
S.T.E.E.P. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Society (Demographics – Culture)
Demographic Transitions ‘Pear-shaped’ Societies with Potential Demographic Dividends
Aging Populations Workforce; Family; Consumer spending; Healthcare costs
Gender and Family Structure Dynamics Women: Educational Attainment; % in Workforce
Urbanization vs Rural Retreat (De-urbanization) Bifurcation splits rural-metros across China – Africa – India
S.T.E.E.P. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Environment – Natural Resources
Sourcing – Materials and Natural Resources Rare-Earth Supplies; Substitution constraints; Resource Nationalization
Energy Transitions Dynamics of Unconventional Oil-Natgas; Distributed Power
Materials Design Light-weighting Industrial Products; Nano-; Computational Design
Bio Industrialism Waste Capture – Utilization Climate-Ocean Change
Agriculture; Ocean; Population displacements
S.T.E.E.P. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Politics
Globalization: Strong State Hybrid Markets & South-to-South Emerging Economies Re-write Assumptions on Strong State path
Regulatory Frameworks Extensions; Automation; Harmonization-Fragmentation
Civic Culture Shaped by Narrow-casting vs Middle-Way Monetary – Fiscal Policies
China Debt-to-GDP Ratios & Industrial Overcapacity Non-State Actors
NGOs; Empowered Individuals (High Net Worth; Insurgents) War – Conflict
Challenged Nation-State; Balkanization; Clash of Worldviews
SUPPLY CHAIN – MANUFACTURING TRENDS
Logistics & Fulfillment – Value Chain Threats of Verticalization; Extending Last-mile and Same-day delivery; Uncertain Retailer relationships
Empowered Cities – Metro Economies Controlled distribution chains; Regulatory frameworks; Re-zoning for Industry Growth; Localization incentives
Additive Manufacturing Low-volume production; Repair- Replacement; Consumerization of Design-Production
Energy Transitions Shift to Unconventional Hydrocarbon Supplies; Distributed Power; Portable Power extends Cold Chain
Business Model Constraints & Innovations Struggle to capture value within digital network dynamics
Domain Specific
EMERGING ISSUES ANALYSIS
Intersection of Policy Decisions and Growth Strategies
•Emerging issues are those ideas which require a decision in the realm of private or public policy.
• “Will we…?” or “Will we not..?” embrace X policy change for society? (e.g. Data; Personal Micro-UAVs).
•This framework is a first step in understanding when to align business and legal strategy with the developmental stages of emerging issues as they gain acceptance (or not) within society.
Public / Media References Over Time
Deg
ree
of
Pu
blic
Acc
epta
nce
Framing - Testing first applications
Emerging - Exploring potential applications
Mainstreaming - Featured on Time™ Magazine’
Resolution/Plateau - Ruled & Regulated
** Framework popularized by Graham Molitor
? Event Headlines Multiple Future Outcomes
Implications Wheel Example
‘Power Plants’ $1 $10 $100 $1000
‘Unplugging’ / Personal Fuel Packets
Future Implications of Micro Fuel Cells
Could Apple disrupt the energy industry? … or the Housing Construction industry?
Unplug Refuel
2016 2017
5 Year Plan
Fuel-based Devices
Fuel-cell on a Chip
2021
The Cordless Christmas
2026
House Construction without Electrical Sockets
#1 Fuel Distributor
PAGE 73
? Event Headlines Multiple Future Outcomes
