Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

Copyright © SRC 2012Copyright © SRC 2012

Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme

Mark Johnston and Elaine QualtiereSaskatchewan Research Council

15 February 2012

Copyright © SRC 2012

Alberta SRD:– Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests

(complete)

– Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture (ongoing)

Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch– Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB

– Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of southeastern MB

Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service– Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment

– Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply

Overview of Forestry Activities and Case Studies


Report focused on Forest Fringe

Applies generally to southern boreal forests in the prairie region

Includes impacts on ecosystem services; risk assessment; and adaptation options

AB SRD: Literature Review


AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires

Scenario Model 2020s 2050s 2080s

A1B CGCM 17.6±4.9 20.8±5.4 23.5±5.0

Hadley 17.6±5.2 21.1±5.3 25.1±6.1

IPSL 18.1±4.6 22.7±5.3 27.7±6.5

A2 CGCM 17.5±4.6 20.6±5.3 25.6±6.0

Hadley 17.2±5.2 21.0±5.0 26.5±6.6

IPSL 18.4±4.8 22.7±5.3 28.8±6.2

B1 CGCM 17.2±4.7 19.3±5.4 21.2±5.1

Hadley 17.4±5.6 19.8±5.0 23.1±5.6

IPSL 18.2±4.8 22.0±5.2 24.5±5.9

Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the 1979-2010 Average (days)


Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to explore potential impacts of climate change on forest management in the Sandilands provincial forest (southeastern Manitoba).

The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the assessment.

The assessment will identify potential adaptation options and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be applied to other areas within the province.

SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to assess anticipated climate change impacts.

MB Conservation: Climate Change


MB Conservation: Climate Change

MUVariable Season Years Min Max Mean Tif_Files

24Mean Max Temp (ºC) ANNUAL 1971-2000 6.98 8.23 7.85MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_ANNUAL.TIF

24Mean Max Temp (ºC) AUTUMN 1971-2000 7.51 8.99 8.58MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_AUTUMN.TIF

24Mean Max Temp (ºC) SPRING 1971-2000 7.92 9.21 8.82MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SPRING.TIF

24Mean Max Temp (ºC) SUMMER 1971-2000 24.31 25.21 24.62MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SUMMER.TIF

Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for current and future time slices linked to maps


MU 24


Multiple Vulnerabilities of Saskatchewan’s Island Forests

Under Climate Change

Copyright © SRC 2012Copyright © SRC 2012

Melfort

Prince Albert

Saskatchewan Island Forests

Province ofSaskatchewan

0 30 6015 Kilometers

¨

Island Forests

Torch

Nesbit

Fort a la Corne

Canwood

1:933 848


Broad scale landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances– Succession– Disturbance– Seed dispersal– Forest management– Carbon dynamics– Climate change affects

What is LANDIS-II?

Wind

Fire

Cohort Biomass

Insects

Spatially Interactive Landscape

Harvest


Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)


Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)


LANDIS – Future Fire


Changes in Forest types

Non-Forest Soft wood Hardwood Muskeg


Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce estimates of annual biomass production (NPP)

Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood volume

Generated these estimate for current and future climate

Used these data to generate yield curves for main forest types – used in wood supply analysis

Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest management plan for the Island Forests

Wood Supply and Climate Change in the Island Forests


Example yield curves for jack pine:Constant CO2


Example yield curves for jack pine:Increasing CO2

Documents

Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme