FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Second International Seville Seminar on Future- Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and

FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on

policy and decision makingpolicy and decision making28th- 29th September 200628th- 29th September 2006

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on

policy and decision makingpolicy and decision making28th- 29th September 200628th- 29th September 2006

Contribution of the FORLEARN project to thestudy of Foresight Impact on Policy-Making

Olivier DA COSTA, Philine WARNKEFabiana SCAPOLO, Cristiano CAGNIN

European Commission / Joint Research Centre / Institute for Prospective Technological Studies


OutlineOutline FORLEARN project

Challenges of policy- / decision-making

Interface between Foresight and policy-making

Contribution of Foresight to policy-making

1. Policy informing

2. Policy facilitating through enabling change

3. Strategic counselling

4. Democratic function

Different contributions at different steps of policy making

Five major issues for high impact


FOR-LEARN ProjectFOR-LEARN Project

Part of the “Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform” initiated by DG Research

Objectives:

1. Consolidating and improving access to existing Foresight knowledge and know-how

2. Providing support to practitioners undertaking Foresight exercise (territorial or sectoral)

3. Promoting mutual learning between practitioners and users

4. Improving interconnexion of European projects and actors

5. Addressing current research issues


FOR-LEARN Learning CycleFOR-LEARN Learning Cycle

ForesightForesight Learning CycleLearning Cycle

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP2Online Query

WP2Online Query

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

Expertise for the support to practitioners

Knowledge gaps

Feedback to update the guide

ForesightForesight Learning CycleLearning Cycle

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP1Online Foresight

guide

WP2Online Query

WP2Online Query

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

WP3Mutual Learning

Workshop

Expertise for the support to practitioners

Knowledge gaps

Feedback to update the guide

Information about Foresight such as “what it is” “what it can do for you and what not”.Practical guidance on how to design and carry out the different phases of a Foresight exerciseDetailed description and implementation advises for a number of Foresight methodsCase studies presenting past and current exercises (territorial or sectoral) emphasising practical information and lessons learnedLinks to more academic discussions and references to go deeper into the current research issueshttp://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/0_home/index.htm

To promote• Transfer and consolidation of knowledge• Codification of practises• Research on knowledge gaps

Different types• Bilateral (in support of a specific exercise, ex Romanian)• Multilateral (addressing a knowledge gap with 10-15 experts)• Consolidation (presenting results to a larger audience)

Individual and targeted support to practitioners, especially beginners• Direct answer• Reference to other sources or contactsPossibly set-up of a “Mutual Learning Workshop” to address the issue more in depth


Challenges of policy- / decision-makingChallenges of policy- / decision-making

Under severe time pressure

Information overload

• not always reliable

• not always relevant

Speed of change & uncertainty,

Increasing complexity of issues

• Multi-dimensional: S&T, economic, cultural & social, political, environmental

• Inter-connection, inter-dependency, multi-causal

• Good old fashioned “control system” not applicable

• “You can never change one thing”

Difficulty to switch modes “dealing with urgency” “long-term thinking”

Challenge to transmit complexity


Bottleneck in the communicationBottleneck in the communication

Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry


(over)simplification and formatting for the messages to go through: ‘indicators’, ranking...

Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis

Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basisBlack boxBlack boxBlack boxBlack box

Pandora boxPandora boxPandora boxPandora box


Three approachesThree approaches

“Increase the bandwidth”



“Optimise the signal” Transmit more relevant,

useable and operational material

“Improve reception” Improve credibility by giving

good advises Make thing interesting

rather than boring

“Increase the bandwidth” Create mechanisms of

consultations at different steps of policy-making

Couple qualitative with quantitative

Use “parallel channels of attention”: pictures, movies…

Use of the media



“Optimise the signal”

“Improve reception”


Why revisiting impact on policy-making?Why revisiting impact on policy-making?

From interviews and literature review:

Increasing emphasis on impact assessment and on “value for money”

Debate on new policy-support instruments

Long-standing experience in Foresight allows for review of lessons learned


Two main functions of Foresight for policy Two main functions of Foresight for policy makingmaking

ActorActor

PolicyPolicy

ActorActor

Informing policyInforming policy

Actor

Actor

Facilitating PolicyFacilitating Policy

Foresight processForesight process

Foresight productForesight product


Anticipatory intelligence• Dynamics of change (scenarios, roadmaps)

• Future opportunities & threats

• Strengths & weaknesses of the current system for addressing future challenges (e.g. skills & competencies available)

• Visions for change

• Recommendations for action

Based on a diversity of knowledge sources

Stakeholders views

Viewpoints and expectations in reference to a policy field

New ideas from new channels

1: Policy informing function1: Policy informing function

PolicyPolicyInforming policyInforming policy


PolicyI nforming policyInforming policy


PolicyI nforming policyInforming policy



2: Policy facilitating function2: Policy facilitating function

ActorActor

PolicyPolicy

ActorActor

ActorActor Foresight processForesight process

Facilitating Policy through enabling change


Within the targeted arena of change:

Common ground

• Linkages & interfaces

• Combinations between elements (e.g. institutions, companies, people, knowledge, beliefs, technologies, products)

• Joint visions

• Learning platforms

Soft coordination

• Awareness of policy objectives, strategy and constraints

• Willingness to contribute to policy implementation because of agreement with the goal to reach and even feeling of ownership

Distributed intelligence

• Shared information as an input to decision-making for various actors and stakeholders beyond policy-makers

Policy benefit: Enhanced the receptivity of the systems and thereby its capability to react to future challenges and evolve in phase with policy-making

Remark: In innovation policy, fostering the ability to change and the connectivity are objectives in themselves in order to enhance the innovation capability

Actor

Policy

Actor

Actor Foresight processForesight process



Actor

Policy

Actor

Actor Foresight processForesight process




Two main functionsTwo main functionsPolicy


Informing policyInforming policy

Facilitating PolicyFacilitating Policy

Highlighting:• Dynamics of change• Future risks & opportunities• Capabilities of the system• New ideas & visions• Stakeholders views

Enabling change by building amongst stakeholders:

• Common ground• Soft coordination• Distributed intelligence

Foresight processForesight process


3: Strategic counselling function3: Strategic counselling function

Specific function for some policy-oriented exercises

Concept: Joint translation of outcomes from a collective exercise into strategic options for a specific policy actor (e.g. ministry)

Outcome: Future-oriented strategies in specific policy fields (e.g. adaptive, robust) adapted to the needs of a specific policy actor


3: Strategic counselling function3: Strategic counselling function

PolicyPolicy

Product: Informing

Collective Foresight

Process: Facilitating

Strategy PhaseAdapted strategic options


4: Democratic function4: Democratic function

Improve the transparency and legitimacy

Especially for policy with long-term impact or large budget spending


Foresight in policy-makingForesight in policy-making

Evaluation

Agenda-setting

FORESIGHT

Strategy building

• Ex-ante impact analysis

Learning

Implementation

Understanding of changes

Receptivity of the system

New ideas

Legitimacy, transparency

VisionsStrategic options


Five crucial issues identified by practitionersFive crucial issues identified by practitioners

[2nd FORLEARN Mutual Learning Workshop Brussels April 2006]

1. Embedding Foresight in policy process

2. Adequate involvement of policy makers

3. Joining policy implementation

4. Building a reservoir of knowledge

5. Linking to choices and values


1 Embedding Foresight in policy process1 Embedding Foresight in policy process

Issue

• Foresight outcomes are only taken onboard if they are well in phase with policy-making process, in terms of

Timing

Cultural compatibility

Useability

Approach

• Careful analysis of policy-context (positions of other actors etc.) to define space of manoeuvre for the policy actor

• Positioning in reference to other ongoing policy processes

Don’t stand alone but competitive


2 Adequate involvement of policy makers2 Adequate involvement of policy makers

Issue

• Finding the right balance of policy makers involvement

On the one hand policy-makers require external and neutral advice

On the other they may not, without early involvement, embrace the outcomes (Not Invented Here)

Presence of policy makers encourages lobbying rather than creative thinking

Approach

• Finding specific roles for policy makers in the process

• Windows of policy interaction & windows of seclusion


3 3 Joining policy implementationJoining policy implementationIssue

• Anticipatory intelligence is not easily translated into strategies

• Even more so if it stems from a collective process

Difficulty for policy makers to communicate their agenda within open process

Lack of understanding about real needs of policy makers

Stakeholders not in a position to develop policy strategies

Approach

• Jointly translating anticipatory intelligence from collective process into strategic options

If in line with the specific objectives of this exercise

And:

Keeping protected spaces for creativity

Not diverting collective process with the constraints of implementation


4 Building a reservoir of knowledge4 Building a reservoir of knowledgeIssue

• Precise answers to precise questions are usually not possible on the spot, neither always desirable

Changing policy agenda, difficult to be in phase

Different time scales: Foresight slower than policy-making

Not always possible to go through the “strategic counselling” phase

Limit the aversion against “prescriptions” that some policy makers have

Approach

• Anticipate timing of decision-making

• Conceptualise outcomes as a reservoir of possible policy alternatives (rather than “prioritisation” or “recommendations”) that can be adopted by different actors at different times

Even in case of a major change, e.g. elections


5 5 Linking to choices and valuesLinking to choices and valuesIssue

• Policies should be linked to normative objectives such as sustainability, quality of life etc.

• Stakeholders need to be convinced that the policy results of a choice, not a lack of choice

E.g. French referendum on European constitution

Approach

• Linking explicitly the exploration of the future with debates about choices and values

• Not only possible futures but also desirable futures


Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

Documents

FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Second International Seville Seminar on Future- Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and