Formulate AlternativesFormulate Alternatives

AccomplishmentsAccomplishments

Put together a team

Established a shared vision of the status quo

Identified problems

Defined planning objectives

Defined measures of performance

Delineated constraints

Next We Formulate Alternatives to the Status Quo

Next We Formulate Alternatives to the Status Quo

Alternative Formulation is an Iterative Process

Alternative Formulation is an Iterative Process

Alternative Formulation

Brain Storming

PlanningObjectives Performance

Measures

Screening

Resisting Point DesignsGaining New

Perspectives

Considering the Improbable

Relaxing Constraints

Alternative: A combination of measures that change the way water is managed.

The Balancing Act of Alternative Formulation

The Balancing Act of Alternative Formulation

Many Alternatives Few Alternatives

Selection Process

Time

Cost

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Potential Alternatives - Supply Strategic Tactical

Increased Reservoir Capacity

New Source Construction

Basin Interties

Reallocation of Supplies

Emergency Pumping

Potential Alternatives - Operational Strategies

Strategic Tactical

Conjunctive Use Strategies

Reservoir Operating Strategy Changes

Water Reuse

Changes In Triggering Mechanisms

Water Quality Management Strategies

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Potential Alternatives - Demand Modification

Strategic Tactical

Water Use Curtailments

Public Information Campaigns

Water Pricing

Conservation Retrofits

Conservation Credits

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Potential Alternatives - Regulatory Strategic Tactical

Instream Flow Requirements

Water Quality Regulations

Water Rights Transfers

Water Banking

Water Marketing

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Typical Alternatives to the Status Quo

Alternative Formulation is a “Systems Process” That Proceeds From

the General to the Detailed

Alternative Formulation is a “Systems Process” That Proceeds From

the General to the Detailed

Alternatives should initially be presented as general concepts

Estimates of impacts on planning objectives should be made

Infeasible alternatives should be discarded

Inferior alternatives should be identified

Promising alternatives should be analyzed in greater detail

Alternative Formulation RequiresAlternative Formulation Requires

Creative thinking

Collaborative effort

Compromise

Vision

What is the best alternative you have developed to a

difficult problem?

What is Brainstorming?What is Brainstorming?

An effective process for initial generation of alternatives

Encourages participants to freely offer suggestions

Forbids premature criticism and analysis

Requires participation of experts, managers and stakeholders

Improves response via collective thought

Forces the examination of a wide variety of ideas

Helps assure that no options are overlooked

Shared Vision Models are Valuable Tools in Alternative Formulation

Shared Vision Models are Valuable Tools in Alternative Formulation

Performance measures allow managers and stakeholders to envision the impacts of proposed actions

Simple representations of alternatives can be developed to determine general trade-offs and evaluate system behavior

Shared Vision Models are Valuable Tools in Alternative Formulation

Shared Vision Models are Valuable Tools in Alternative Formulation

More detailed models can be used to perform detailed analysis at the design level

Model use enhances understanding of system sensitivities and promotes conceptualization of new alternatives

Alternatives can be fine-tuned through sensitivity analysis

Generating Alternatives Requires Creativity*

Generating Alternatives Requires Creativity*

An attitude that allows you to search for ideas and manipulate your knowledge and experience

Trying various approaches

Using impractical (* von Oech 1990)

Obstacles to Creative ThinkingObstacles to Creative Thinking

Whack’s Ten Mental Locks

1. “THE” right answer 6. That is not my area

2. That is not logical 7. Avoid ambiguity

3. Follow the rules 8. Don’t be foolish

4. Be practical 9. To err is wrong

5. Play is frivolous 10. I’m not creative

Adopt an Appropriate AttitudeAdopt an Appropriate Attitude

Make a commitment to generate multiple strategies

Adopt a questioning attitude

Don’t be afraid to fail

Create the Proper EnvironmentCreate the Proper Environment

Advocate collaborative thought

Eliminate distractions

Provide support to bring ideas into action

Take ActionTake Action

Solicit input from different perspectives

Ask “What If?”

Examine the value of existing constraints

Delay criticism

Alternative Evaluation and Refinement

Alternative Evaluation and Refinement

The Formulation Process:

Fine-tunes alternatives

Defines components completely

Uses different evaluation criteria in different stages

A Phased Assessment of ImpactsA Phased Assessment of Impacts

Preliminary Screening Criteria

Completeness: all the required plan elements are specified

Acceptability: decision criteria and planning constraints are satisfied

A Phased Assessment of ImpactsA Phased Assessment of Impacts

Intermediate Screening Criteria

Effectiveness: planning objectives are addressed

Detailed Assessment

Efficiency: a high ratio of plan outputs to plan inputs

Activities in Detailed EvaluationActivities in Detailed Evaluation

Risk assessment

Economic analysis (NED, RED, Incremental Cost)

EQ and OSE account quantification

Activities in Alternative Refinement

Activities in Alternative Refinement

Alternative Refinement is a process of:

Specification - defining the details

Optimization - enhanced by the understanding of system sensitivity

SummarySummary

Alternative formulation is an iterative cycle of generating, screening, and refining alternatives that proceeds at increasing levels of detail.

Creative thinking promotes the identification of effective and innovative solutions to planning problems.

Planning Objectives, Metrics and Accounts are used to assess the completeness, acceptability, effectiveness, and efficiency of a proposed plan.

ExerciseExercise