Forty-five Years of the Clean Air Act

Ron GoreADEM

August,2015

Comparison of Growth Areas and Emissions, 1980-2013

National Emissions from Major Sources (thousands of tons), 1970 - 2014

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20140

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

NOxSO2PM2.5COVOC

National Emissions from Highway Vehicles(thousands of tons)

1970 2014

CO 163,231 22,261

NOx 12,624 4,489

SO2 273 22

PM2.5 323 167

VOC 16,910 2,159

TOTALS 193,361 29,098

National VMT 1970 – 2014 (millions of miles)

1970 1,120,328

1980 1,520,856

1990 2,147,501

2000 2,274,926

2014 3,038,144

AL Emissions from Major Sources,1990 - 2013

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20130

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

NOxSO2PMCOVOCPb

AL NOx Emissions by Source Sector

AL VOC Emissions by Source Sector

Ambient Concentrations of Criteria Pollutants – National Avg.

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ozone

PPB

20002002

20042006

20082010

20130

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

PM2.5

ug/m

3

Ambient Concentrations of Criteria Pollutants – National Avg.

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NOx

PPB

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102013

020406080

100120140160180

SO2

PPB

Ambient Concentrations of Criteria Pollutants – National Avg.

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102013

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

Pb

ug/m

3

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102013

0123456789

10

CO

PPM

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

82-84

83-85

84-86

85-87

86-88

87-89

88-90

89-91

90-92

91-93

92-94

93-95

94-96

95-97

96-98

97-99

98-00

99-01

00-02

01-03

02-04

03-05

04-06

05-07

06-08

07-09

08-10

09-11

10-12

11-13

12-14

3 Ye

ar A

ve (P

PB)

Years

Statewide Average Ozone Design Value 1984-2014

Statewide Ave DV

75 ppbStandard

85 ppbStandard

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

2001-2003 2002-2004 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 2012-2014

3 Ye

ar A

ve (u

g/m

3)

Years

Statewide Average PM2.5 Design Value 2003 - 2014

Statewide Ave Linear (Statewide Ave)

12 ug/m3 Standard

Ozone NAAQS

adem.alabama.gov

1975 to 1998 100 units

1998 to 2008 85 units

2008 to present 75 units

October 2015 60 to 70 units ????

PM2.5 Standards

1972-1998 25 Units

1998- 2012 15 Units

2012 - present 12 Units

adem.alabama.gov

NO2 NAAQS

adem.alabama.gov

1971 to 2010 326 units (Equivalent 1-Hour average)

2010 - present 100 units (HOURLY average)

SO2 NAAQS

adem.alabama.gov

1971 to 2010•500 units (secondary 3-Hour std)

2010 to present • 75 units (HOURLY std)

FUTURE •??????

Lead NAAQS

adem.alabama.gov

1978 to 2008 1.5 unitsCalendar Quarter Average

2008 to present 0.15 unitsRolling 3 Month Average

Counties Where Measured Ozone is Above Proposed Range ofStandards (65 – 70 parts per billion)

358 counties would violate 70 ppb

200 additional counties would violate 65 ppb for a total of 558 Based on 2011 – 2013 monitoring data

Blue line – Averaged peak daylight hours(11AM-4PM) for the summer months(June-August).

Blue line – Averaged nighttime hours(8PM-7AM) for the ozone season.

State2013 Electricty Consumed by

the State (Gigawatt Hours)2013 Electricity Generated by

the State (Gigawatt Hours) Net Export₁ % Net Import₂ %Alabama 86,000 136,000 37% Arkansas 47,500 56,000 15% Florida 219,000 190,000 13%Georgia 132,000 108,500 18%Kentucky 83,250 90,000 8% Louisiana 86,500 90,000 4% Maryland 62,000 32,000 48%Mississippi 48,500 48,000 1%Missouri 83,500 83,250 0.3%North Carolina 120,250 111,000 8%Oklahoma 59,000 67,000 12% South Carolina 80,000 87,000 8% Tennessee 94,000 72,500 23%Texas 372,000 388,000 4% Virginia 110,000 71,000 35%West Virginia 31,500 69,000 54%

₁ -Expressed as percent of total in state electricity generation that is exported. Example-AL exports 37% of electricity generated in the state.₂ -Expressed as percent of total in state electricity consumption that is imported. Example-FL imports 13% of the electricity consumed in the state.

Source: Southern States Energy Board: Southern States Regional Energy Profiles 2014

Tropics 73-models CMIP-5 vs. ObservationsRegion of Strongest Model Signal of Human-caused global warming

Mid-troposphere, Linear Temp Trend

19751978

19811984

19871990

19931996

19992002

20052008

20112014

20172020

20230.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0ACCESS1-0_rcp85_r1i1p1 ACCESS1-3_rcp85_r1i1p1 bcc-csm1-1_rcp85_r1i1p1BNU-ESM_rcp85_r1i1p1 CanESM2_rcp85_r1i1p1 CanESM2_rcp85_r2i1p1CanESM2_rcp85_r3i1p1 CanESM2_rcp85_r4i1p1 CanESM2_rcp85_r5i1p1CCSM4_rcp85_r1i1p1 CCSM4_rcp85_r2i1p1 CCSM4_rcp85_r3i1p1CCSM4_rcp85_r4i1p1 CCSM4_rcp85_r5i1p1 CCSM4_rcp85_r6i1p1CESM1-BGC_rcp85_r1i1p1 CESM1-CAM5_rcp85_r1i1p1 CESM1-CAM5_rcp85_r2i1p1CESM1-CAM5_rcp85_r3i1p1 CMCC-CM_rcp85_r1i1p1 CMCC-CMS_rcp85_r1i1p1CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r1i1p1 CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r2i1p1 CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r4i1p1CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r6i1p1 CNRM-CM5_rcp85_r10i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r1i1p1CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r2i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r3i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r4i1p1CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r5i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r6i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r7i1p1CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r8i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r9i1p1 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_r10i1p1FGOALS-g2_rcp85_r1i1p1 FIO-ESM_rcp85_r1i1p1 FIO-ESM_rcp85_r2i1p1FIO-ESM_rcp85_r3i1p1 GFDL-CM3_rcp85_r1i1p1 GFDL-ESM2G_rcp85_r1i1p1GFDL-ESM2M_rcp85_r1i1p1 GISS-E2-H_rcp85_r1i1p1 GISS-E2-H_rcp85_r1i1p2GISS-E2-H_rcp85_r1i1p3 GISS-E2-R_rcp85_r1i1p1 GISS-E2-R_rcp85_r1i1p2GISS-E2-R_rcp85_r1i1p3 HadGEM2-AO_rcp85_r1i1p1 HadGEM2-ES_rcp85_r1i1p1HadGEM2-ES_rcp85_r2i1p1 HadGEM2-ES_rcp85_r3i1p1 HadGEM2-ES_rcp85_r4i1p1inmcm4_rcp85_r1i1p1 IPSL-CM5A-LR_rcp85_r1i1p1 IPSL-CM5A-LR_rcp85_r2i1p1IPSL-CM5A-LR_rcp85_r3i1p1 IPSL-CM5A-LR_rcp85_r4i1p1 IPSL-CM5A-MR_rcp85_r1i1p1IPSL-CM5B-LR_rcp85_r1i1p1 MIROC5_rcp85_r1i1p1 MIROC5_rcp85_r2i1p1MIROC5_rcp85_r3i1p1 MIROC-ESM_rcp85_r1i1p1 MIROC-ESM-CHEM_rcp85_r1i1p1MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r1i1p1 MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r2i1p1 MPI-ESM-LR_rcp85_r3i1p1MPI-ESM-MR_rcp85_r1i1p1 MRI-CGCM3_rcp85_r1i1p1 NorESM1-M_rcp85_r1i1p1NorESM1-ME_rcp85_r1i1p1 Mean Mean USAAvg 2-Satellite Avg 4-Balloon

°C

Real World ObservationsCircles Avg 2-Satellite DatasetsSquares Avg 4-Balloon datasets

73 CMIP-5 Climate Model RunsBlack - Average