Forum EDS 2012 - William Rees

8/2/2019 Forum EDS 2012 - William Rees

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Follow the Footprints:A Transdisciplinary Perspective

on Sustainability

William E. Rees, PhD, FRSCUBC School of Community and Regional Planning

Forum EDS Qubec , Qubec4 April 2012


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IMPEDING SUSTAINABILITY?THE AMBIGUOUS ROLE OF

HIGHER EDUCATION

William E. Rees, PhDUniversity of British Columbia

School of Community and Regional Planning

Building Sustainable Communities

Kelowna, BC (27 Feb 2011)

Context: The Gathering Storm

A great change in our stewardship of theearth and the life on it is required if vast

human misery is to be avoided and our

global home on this planet is not to be

irretrievably mutilated (UCS 1992).

Human activity is putting such a strain

on the natural functions of the Earth that

the ability of the planets ecosystems tosustain future generations can no longer be

taken for granted (MEA 2005).


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Hypothesis: Modern H. sapiensisinherently biased against sustainability

Unsustainability is an inevitableemergent property of the systemic

interaction between techno-industrial society, as presently

conceived, and the ecosphere.

Both biological (nature) and socio-

cultural (nurture) factors are involved.


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Key Bio-behavioural Drivers

Like all other species,H. sapiens

is genetically predisposed to: expand to occupy all accessible

habitats and;

use up all available resources (In thecase of humans, availability is

determined by technology.)


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A Fisheries Example:Canadas Shame


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There are no... limits to the carryingcapacity of the earth that are likely tobind any time in the foreseeablefuture (Summers 1991).

We have in our hands now the

technology to feed, clothe and supplyenergy to an ever-growing populationfor the next 7 billion years (Simon 1995).

The Socio-Cultural Factor: ThePerpetual Growth Myth


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Global Expression

Since the 1950s, virtually the entire

world has come to share a mythic

narrative of global development

centered on unlimited economic

expansion, fuelled by more liberalized

trade.

Sub-myth: human well-being can be all

but equated with ever-expanding

income/consumption.


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Result: The Anomalous, Unsustainable Oil-BasedExpansion of the Human Enterprise beyond GlobalCarrying Capacity

The extensive reliance on fossil fuel beginning in the19th Century allowed the explosive growth of thehuman enterprise and the increase in global entropy.

2012Population:7+ billion

The period of rapid growth since the 19thCentury, which we take to be the norm,

actually delimits the single most anomalous period in the history ofH. sapiens .


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The Great Acceleration, post 1750:The exponential growth of consumption

The Great Acceleration

is clearly shown in

every component of the

human enterprise

included in the figure.Either the component

was not present before

1950 (e.g., foreign

direct investment) or itsrate of change increased

sharply after 1950 (e.g.,

population)

(Steffen, Crutzen & McNeill

2007 [Ambio 36: 314-321])


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A culture based on fossil energy

(TU-Wein & IIASA 2003)

In 2000 fossil fuel-

based energy systems

generated more than 80%

of the total energy used

to power the global

economy.

Growth in fossil energy

use has been exponential.

About 76% of the anthro-

pogenic increase inatmospheric carbon (total

increases= 105 ppm) has

occurred since 1950, half

in the past 30 years.


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Consequence: Increasing AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide (A38% Increase since 19th Century)

Rate of

increase(ppm/year)

1970-79: 1.3

1990-99: 1.5

2000-07: 2.3

(accelerating!)

390+ ppm in

Aug 2011


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Mean global Temp Up 0.8 Cin 125 yrs

Green bars show 95% confidence

intervals The upward

trend continues:

Were currently

0.8C above

1880-1900average, more

than 0.5C

since 1970.


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And the heat goes on

Globally, the first six months of 2010 were

the warmest in the instrumental record.

2010 tied with 2005 for hottest year

recorded.

The world is on track for a catastrophic four

Celsius degree increase in mean global

temperature in this century.

And this is just one symptom ofhuman

ecological dysfunction.


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Beyond Climate change:The Human Ecological Footprint

My transdisciplinary awakening:

should you persist inpursuing your research interests

on human carrying capacity,

your academic career will be

nasty, brutish, and short.


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Eco-Footprint Analysis Inverts theCarrying Capacity Ratio

Carrying capacity asks how large ahuman population could be supported ina given area without permanentlydamaging relevant productiveecosystems.

Eco-footprinting asks how large an

area (land and water ecosystems) isrequired to support a specified humanpopulation wherever on Earth the

relevant land/water is located.


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Quantifying theHuman Eco-Footprint

A populations eco-footprint is the area ofland and water ecosystems (biocapacity)required to produce the resources that the

population consumes, and to assimilatethe wastes that the population produces,wherever on Earth the relevant land/water

may be located. All people everywhere are competing

for a fair share of Earths decliningbiocapacity.


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Does money wealth entitle the richto a bigger slice of the pie?

Average per capita EFs in

high-income countries range

between four and ten global

average hectares (10 to 25

acres).

The poorest people live on a

third of a gha (.74 ac).

There are only about 1.8 gha

per person on earth.

Europeans use 2-3 times

and North Americans use 3-

4 times their equitable share

of global biocapacity.

P i E l i l F i f


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Per capita Ecological Footprints ofSelected countries (Data from WWF 2008)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Eco-Footprint(globalhectar

es)

Country


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Biocapacities and Ecological Footprints of SelectedCountries Compared to World Averages (2005 data)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Eco-Foo

tprint(globalh

a/capita)

Country

Domestic Biocapacity

Ecological Footprint

Thanks to

globalization, most

countries can

persist in a state ofecological deficit

(overshoot). They

survive on

imported bio-

capacity and byexploiting the

global commons.

O h Li i b d h


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Overshoot: Living beyond themeans of nature

Average demand for

biocapacity:

2.7 gha/capita.

Supply: 1.8 gha The human enterprise already

exceeds global carrying

capacity by about 50%.

In August the world reached

overshoot day for 2011. For the rest of that year

humanity lived in part by

depleting natural capital and

over-filling waste sinks.

Humanitys Ecological Footprint, 1961-2007(Source: WWF 2010)

This threshold represents

one-planet living


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When growth is uneconomic

Adapted from Daly (2005)

The optimum level of consumption (*) is reached when marginal gains equal marginal losses. Anyfurther increase in consumption (economic scale) is uneconomic growth (growth that makes us

poorer rather than richer).

*


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In theory, H. Sapienshas uniquepotential to confront the crisis

Four intellectual and emotional qualities

distinguish humans from other advanced

vertebrates:

unparalleled capacity for evidence-based

reasoning and logical analysis;

unique ability for long-term forward

planning; the capacity to exercise moral judgment;

compassion for other individuals and other

species.


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Nevertheless:

Despite decades of hardening evidenceand rising rhetoric on the risks of globalchange, no national government, no

prominent international agency, nocorporate leader anywhere has begun toadvocate in public let alone implementthe kind of policy responses that arecalled forth by the best science availabletoday.


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To the extent that higher

education (re)produces the coresbeliefs, values and assumptions

of contemporary growth-oriented

techno-industrial society, it is asource of the problem (Rees 2003).

Higher education as cause?


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What Perceptive Educators Say

[the depletion and pollution of

the planet] is not the work ofignorant people. Rather it is largely

the result of work by people with

BAs, BSs, LLBs, MBAs and PhDs(Orr 1994).

A li k h


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A naturalist poet makes thesame point

It is people who make unimaginably

large sums of money, people

impeccably groomed, excellently

educated at the best universitiesmale

and female alike[who orchestrate]

the investment and legislation that ruin

the world (Snyder 1990).


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Trapped by our triune brains?

Cerebrum (Neo cortexor new brain)- logic and reason; forwardthinking and planning;language and speech;

Limbic System:(Mammalianor mid-brain)- Emotions, feelings;responses to food and sex;bonding and attachment;memory

Reptilian Complex(Old brain)- physical survival;reproduction; socialstature; fight or flight;hard-wired ritual andinstinct

Brain stem(RC)

Cerebellum(RC)

Corpus callosum


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Tension in the Integrated Mind

We claim to be a uniquely self-

conscious, rational species.

We live in cerebral awareness.

However, circumstances in which reason

predominates are limited to relatively

trivial circumstances. That is:

Passion and instinct often trump reason.

H i i d l fli t d


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H. sapiensis a deeply conflictedSpecies


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We live in deep denial

The masses have never thirsted after truth. Theyturn aside from evidence that is not to their taste,

preferring to deify error (Gustave le Bon 1896).

For us to maintain our way of living, we must telllies to each other, and especially to ourselves thelies act as barriers to truth. These barriers arenecessary because without them many deplorableacts would become impossibilities (Jensen 2000).

a new scientific truth does not triumph byconvincing its opponents and making them see thelight, but rather because its opponents eventually die,and a new generation grows up that is familiar with

it (Max Planck, 1949)

A E l t C iti


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An Explanatory CognitiveMechanism

During individualdevelopment, sensoryexperiences and culturalnorms literally shape thehuman brains synaptic

circuitry in patterns thatreflect and embed thoseexperiences.

Subsequently, people seekout compatible experiencesand, when faced with

information that does notagree with their[preformed] internalstructures, they deny,discredit, reinterpret orforget that information(Wexler, 2006).


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So, the question of the day

What would a truly intelligent,

compassionate, forward-thinking,planning-capable species do in

response to the historical record

and ongoing trends?


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First Step

Acknowledge that the dominant growth

narrative is merely a flawed social

construction not a representation oftruth

You may say, if you wish, that all reality is

a social construction, but you cannot deny

that some constructions are truer than

others (Postman 1999) .


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Popper put it this way

What the scientists and thelunatics theories have in common is

that both belong to conjecturalknowledge. But some conjecturesare much better than others

(Karl Popper, The Problem of Induction)


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The challenge for higher education

Help script a new, better, more realistic and

adaptive cultural narrative. For example:

The economic policy emphasis must shift from

efficiency and growth (merely getting bigger)

toward equity and development (qualitative

improvement, getting better).

The underpinning values of society must shiftfrom competitive individualism, greed, and narrow

self-interest, toward community, cooperation, and

our collective interest in survival.

Goals: Reduced material throughput


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Goals: Reduced material throughputand greater social equity

Industrialized world reductions in material

consumption, energy use, and environmental

degradation of over 90% will be required by

2040 to meet the needs of a growing world

population fairly within the planets ecological

means (BCSD 1993) .

For sustainability with equity, wealthy OECD

nations should be taking steps to reduce their

ecological footprints by 50% to 80% (Rees 2006).

M ti ti d R ti l ?


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Motivation and Rationale?Its in everyones long-term best interest

For the first time, individual and nationalinterests have converged with humanityscommon interests. That is;

Sustainability is a collective problem thatdemands collective solutions (no countrycan become sustainable on its own).

Failure to act for the common good willultimately lead to civil insurrection,resource wars and ecologicaldestruction.

A con enient tr th GDP Gro th in


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A convenient truth: GDP Growth inrich countries is borderline futile

Since 1976, the Canadian

economy has grown by

130%. GDP per capita is

70% per cent higher.

There has been no change

in the percentage of the

population in poverty or in

the unemployment rate.

The absolute numbers ofimpoverished and

unemployed has increased.

Subjective well-being is

constant or declining.(Siegel 2006)

Optimal

economic

scale?


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This is serious business

Maladaptive memes (ideologies,

paradigms and narratives) like

unfit genes, can be selected outby a changing environment.

Whole societies have failed for

their beliefs.

?


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Is societal collapse possible? It wouldnt bethe first time!

...what is perhaps

most intriguing in the

evolution of human

societies is the

regularity with which

the pattern of

increasing complexityis interrupted by

collapse(Tainter 1995).


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The sustainability challenge

is for global society to break

from the historic pattern of

ignominious collapse

Documents

Forum EDS 2012 - William Rees