Fostering the Diversity of Innovation Activities through e-Participation

1

Helsinki University of TechnologySystems Analysis Laboratory

Fostering the Diversity of Innovation Activities Fostering the Diversity of Innovation Activities

through e-Participation through e-Participation

Totti Könnölä, & Ahti SaloSystems Analysis Laboratory

Helsinki University of Technology P.O. Box 1100, 02015 HUT

Finland


2TED Workshop: e-Participation in Environmental Decision Making, May 19. - 22.2005, Helsinki and Conference Boat, Finland. Contact: [email protected]

Project: From weak signals to innovations (Sept.´04-March´05)Project: From weak signals to innovations (Sept.´04-March´05) Part of the Finnish Foresight Forum

– pilot program initiated by the Ministry of Trade and Industry – consists of three expert groups on

» biotechnology: nutrigenomics» aging and demographics: health care and social services » new business from services: personal experience services

– www.ennakointiforum.fi (in finnish)

Initial project objectives:– engage stakehoders to the Forum – develop a new internet-based method for the identification and multi-criteria

evalution of weak signals– discuss the results in the expert groups– publish the results in Internet



Revisiting foresight objectivesRevisiting foresight objectives

Priority-setting– may discount alternative pathways

Networking– two strong networks creates inertia and lock-in

Vision-building– consensus may cut out relevant alternative pathways

Attention to exploration and diversity – foster diversity in perspectives, collaborative relations and ideas on

innovations– Identify weak signals



Weak signals and filters of information Weak signals and filters of information

Weak signals – new emerging features in the present that can be used for foresighting the

futures, often appear as far-fetched and irrational – e.g. new alternative technologies (hydrogen economy)

Filters of Information (Ansoff, 1984)



Mapping weak-signals Mapping weak-signals

Conventional approach– wide range of different types of signals – maybe difficult interpret the signifigance

» inter-dependences of signals? » importance for our organisation?» is there need for specific action, and by whom?

We focus on Innovations – focused and commensurate approach – improved comparability – action-oriented with specific actors and contexts– combined reflections of different weak signals



Definition of innovation ideasDefinition of innovation ideas

We look for concrete and context-specific ideas for innovations that – are related to the chosen theme – are new for the participant or have received insufficient attention – may be related to technological discontinuities– may provide change to develop an innovation within 10-15 years – may require collaboration among different actors



Multiple perspectivesMultiple perspectives

The relevance of ideas depend on many aspects, e.g. – has impact only on some, but is highly important for them – has impact on many, but has little importance for them – has lots of impact on many but is not necesasry feasible

Three criteria – novelty– feasiblity– societal relevance

In addition, possibility for commenting – suggestions for future actions – identification of relevant actors



Participants Participants

Stakeholders of the Finnish Foresight Forum– number of invited participants was about 50 persons/theme

» industry ~ 10%» government ~ 40%» research ~ 30%» commerce and NGOs ~ 10%» technology entrepeneurs and investors ~ 10%

TKK Students – ~ 60 3-4 year students – in three groups – working in pairs



Phases of the ProjectPhases of the Project Phase I: Participants present ideas for innovations (11-12/04)

– 1vaihe_esim.htm

Phase II: Elaboration of ideas (11/04-1/05)– 2vaihe_esim_kysely.htm– 2vaihe_esim_kommentit.htm

Phase III: Multi-criteria evaluation of ideas (1/05)– 3vaihe_esim.htm

Phase IV: Analysis of results (2/05)– portfolioanalysis (Robust Portfolio Modelling) and workshops

Parallel process was conducted with TKK students



Analysis of the IdeasAnalysis of the Ideas In light of different criteria, identification of interesting ideas

Weak signals, sufficient mean and high deviation

Deviation

Mean

Trend Weak signal

Noise Noise0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 6 11 16 21 26 31

Osallistuja

Arv

io

Trendi

Heikko signaali

Häiriö

Häiriö



Identification of the most interesting ideas Identification of the most interesting ideas

criteria specific mean values of each idea criteria specific deviations of each idea

Specific classes of ideas – trend: idea receives high support

» maximisation of the mean value of different criteria

– weak signal: idea receives somewhat support, but high deviation » maximisation of variance of different criteria, but not necessarily the mean



Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM)Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM)

Choose a subset of projects, a project portfolio, from a large set of proposals (e.g. 50) subject to scarce resources– each project evaluated as a weighted sum of criterion-specific scores– portfolio valued as a sum its constituent projects’ values

Further information: – Friday 20.5. presentation of Antti Punkka, Juuso Liesiö and Ahti Salo:

“Selecting forest sites for voluntary conservation with robust portfolio modeling”– http://www.rpm.hut.fi



Portfolio model for the Analysis of Ideas Portfolio model for the Analysis of Ideas

Simplified version of the model– each criteria scores are defined, no need for intervals– focus on interesting ideas, no need for differentiation of resources– Each project evaluated as a weighted sum of criterion-specific scores– Portfolio valued as a sum its constituent projects’ values

mjz

Rz

vwz

j

m

jj

m

j

n

iijij

zz m

11,0

max

1

1 11



Alternative perspectivesAlternative perspectives

Consensus analysis Diverse perspectives analysis

mjz

Rz

awz

j

m

jj

m

j

n

iijij

zz m

11,0

max

1

1 11

mjz

Rz

wawz

j

m

jj

m

j

n

iij

Vi

n

iij

Aij

zz m

11,0

max

1

1 1

2

11



Diverse perspectives analysis: ExampleDiverse perspectives analysis: Example With three criteria

By changing the feasible weight region we can emphasize different criteria Specifications for the feasible weight region

– variance more important than means– novelty more important than feasibility– feasibility more important than societal relevance – in addition absolut limit 1/6 of the mean value of the criteria

mjz

Rz

wawz

j

m

jj

m

j iij

Vi

iij

Aij

zz m

11,0

max

1

1

3

1

23

11



Computational examples 1/3Computational examples 1/3







The project (idea) included in the percentaje of all non-dominated portfolios

Change of selected criteria and rank orders provides alternative results for further discussion

– In the workshops five alternative analysis

» Maximise mean values» Maximise mean and variance» Maximise variance » Maximise novelty and feasibility» Maximise novelty and societal

relevance



Example:health care and social servicesExample:health care and social services

Consensus analysis – max. mean of three criteria

Diverse perspectives analysis– max. mean and variance of three

criteria



Results and discussion Results and discussion

Generation of ideas – about 50 ideas from stakeholders – about 120 ideas from students

Preconditions – sufficent number of committed participants – willlingness and readiness to participate in internet-based working

Observations – offers participation and learning opportunities – viewpoint for analysis is identifiable

» consensus analysis » diverse perspectives analysis

– the analysis seems to bring up interesting ideas for further elaboration



ConclusionsConclusions

Novelty – innovation ideas as reflections of weak signals – analysis with multiple perspectives

Ideas for futher work– commitment of participants – interactive elements in the commenting (II Phase) – distribution of the workload of evaluation (III Phase) if more participants

Foster diversity within the innovation system– new ideas for innovations – new linkages between disciplines and sectors– provides bases for elaborating alternative future scenarios

Documents

Fostering the Diversity of Innovation Activities through e-Participation