Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Duncan Green \'s book
Citation preview
Introduction: The Unequal World
What is it?
A book (300+ pages)
Spin off print and web materials
A ‘reflection’, i.e. not a strategy, campaign briefing or agreed Oxfam International policy position
Comprehensive – a ‘state of the world’ publication
Who’s the target audience?
Next generation leaders and opinion formers, North and South
Current development practitioners, policy makers, influencers
What’s the vision?
Women and men in communities
everywhere who are equipped with
education, enjoying good health, with
rights, dignity and voice - in charge of
their own destinies
“
”
So what’s the problem? InequalitySo what’s the problem? Inequality
These children’s life chances are already shaped by their: Sex Race Nationality Parental income Parental education
Za
mb
ia1
99
3-2
00
3
Bra
zil 19
93
-20
03
Decreasing Inequalities
Annual % Gini
Annual % Gini Change
0
-1
-2
-3
Inequality is falling in some countries…
Ho
nd
uras 1986-1999
Co
lom
bia 1991-2003
Rw
and
a 1985-2000
Increasing Inequalities
…but rising in many more
Annual % Gini Change
4
3
2
1
0
Global inequality is obscene
Ending poverty would cost $300bn – a third of global military spending
Top 500 billionaires earn as much as the 416 million poorest people
Average global income is $9,500 – 25 times more than that of the bottom billion
What’s happening with inequality?
The answer? RedistributionThe answer? Redistribution
Of PowerOf Power
Of OpportunitiesOf OpportunitiesOf OpportunitiesOf Opportunities
The answer? RedistributionThe answer? Redistribution
Of AssetsOf Assets
The answer? RedistributionThe answer? Redistribution
What's needed:What's needed:
Active Active CitizensCitizens
What's needed:What's needed:
Effective Effective States States
The urgency of now Climate change makes development more urgent
than ever
It means dirty growth is no longer an option
We need to move poor countries onto a clean growth path as soon as possible
If we fail, and carbon becomes either forbidden or too expensive, poor countries and communities may be stuck outside the ‘carbon curtain’ in a new Dark Age
The urgency of now
Human progress is neither automatic
nor inevitable... Over the bleached
bones of numerous civilizations are
written the pathetic words: Too late.
Martin Luther King, 1968
“
”
Section 2
Power and Politics
Main messages
Rights and dignity are a crucial part of development and well-being
Achieving these requires involvement in power and politics
Ability to exercise rights requires access to essential services, information and knowledge
Active citizenship, including civil society organization, is essential to development
Democracy is beneficial on both intrinsic and instrumental basis
Effective states play a central role in development
And rights are about power - Picture
Development is about rightsDevelopment is about rights
Development is about rights
Rights are long-term guarantees that allow right- holders to put demands on duty bearers
Capabilities = rights + ability to exercise them
Involves crucial shift from treating poor people as ‘beneficiaries’ to seeing them as active agents
Rights = lawyers and scholars; development = economists and engineers
And rights are about power
Power over: the power of the strong over the weak
Power to: the capability to decide actions and carry them out
Power with: collective power, through organisation, solidarity, and joint action
Power within: personal self-confidence
How change happens: How change happens: the Chiquitanosthe Chiquitanos
How change happens: the Chiquitanos
3 July 2007: Chiquitanos win title to 1m hectares of traditional lands in Eastern Bolivia
Lived in near-feudal conditions up to 1980s Activism began on margins of football league Marches to La Paz forged links with highland
Indians and built ethnic identity Chiquitanos elected as mayors and senators Evo Morales’ 2006 election, the turning point
First build the people…
Education, healthcare, water, sanitation and housing are basic building blocks of a decent life
Education: need improvements in both quality and quantity (esp. for girls)
Health: maternal mortality as example of gender and wealth-based inequalities
Control over fertility is both a rights and health issue
The state must be central to provision
Then ensure access to knowledge and information Steady improvements in access to knowledge, e.g.
radio, mobiles, internet
Technology holds enormous potential
But current incentives bias R&D against the needs of the poor
And intellectual property rules act as a barrier to technology transfer (pharmaceuticals, biopiracy)
And the right to organise Increasing range and complexity of civil society
organizations
Role of CSOs as catalysts and watchdogs
Intrinsic and instrumental benefits of CSO involvement
Civil society activism waxes and wanes
Civil society is very involved in decentralization processes
How change happens: How change happens: winning women’s rights in Morocco winning women’s rights in Morocco
How change happens: winning women’s rights in Morocco 2004: Moroccan parliament approves new Islamic
family code that strengthens women’s rights Changes driven by Union de l’Action Feminine,
working within Islam, e.g. quoting Koran Counterattack from conservative activists and
clerics Women’s movement used insider-outsider tactics -
petitions and marches to fend off conservatives King formed commission which led to law change
Property rights matter
Property rights matter to poor people
Women often excluded from full rights to property
Many systems of property rights, e.g. customary law
Role of property rights in development: important but not a panacea (de Soto) and can have negative impacts
The importance of land reform to equality and growth
Democracy works
Spread of democracy was a feature of the 20th century
Democracies– Produce more predictable long run growth rates– Produce greater short term stability– Handle shocks much better– Deliver more equality
Democracy in many countries is ‘exclusionary’, with flawed party systems and patronage politics
But for most people remains the ‘least worst’ alternative
Corruption is often linked to natural resources Corruption is both a cause and effect of poverty Impact on development varies (10% v 100%) Active citizens can curb corruption, while rich countries
and corporations must also put their houses in order Natural resources can undermine the social contract
between state and citizen But some countries have managed natural resource
wealth well (e.g. Botswana, Malaysia)
States are at the heart of development (and growing in importance) Nation states play a core role in providing essential services,
rule of law, economic stability and upgrading Weak or absent states are often worse than bad ones, but can
be turned around, often after a ‘shock’ Looking at East Asian tigers, successful states:
– Govern for the future– Promote growth – Start with equity – Integrate with the global economy, but discriminate – Guarantee health and education for all
Taxation is central to the citizen-state relationship Globalization and orthodoxy make building effective states
harder
Dilemma: are Effective States compatible with Active Citizens?
Dilemma: are Effective States compatible with Active Citizens? Aka would you rather be poor in China or Bolivia? Nation builders are often undemocratic But selection bias excludes states that are now
developed Autocrats often fail and civil society is less tolerant of
‘benevolent dictators’ Democracies:
– Produce more predictable long run growth rates– Produce greater short term stability– Handle shocks much better– Deliver more equality
Section 3
Poverty and Wealth
Main messages
Orthodox economics must be expanded to incorporate environment and unpaid work
Markets, and poor peoples’ involvement in them, are evolving rapidly, raising new threats and opportunities
Redistributing power in markets is essential to reducing inequality and overcoming poverty
Redistribution is not the only issue: effective states are needed to generate growth where it benefits poor people most, provide infrastructure, and build national technological capabilities
Economics for the 21st Century
Orthodox economics and its indicators (income GDP etc.) lead to biased policies and blind spots in crucial areas of poverty and inequality
A new economics of human sustainability must address:– Environmental constraints and sustainability – Non-monetary economics, e.g. unpaid women’s
work– Weighting policies and outcomes for equity– Focus on well-being, not just income
Economics for the 21st Century
Making agriculture pro-poor
Small farmer based agricultural growth has led to take-off in Viet Nam, India, etc.
Requires both Effective States and Active Citizens acquiring power in markets
Active Citizens: producer organization, consumers Effective States: access to credit, investment, pro-poor
technologies Good news: commodity prices, biofuels (perhaps) and shift
to low carbon production Challenges: supermarketization; outmigration Dilemma: food v feed v fuel – can we have all 3?
How change happens: How change happens: winning ‘pond rights’ in Indiawinning ‘pond rights’ in India
How change happens: winning ‘pond rights’ in India Fishing ponds crucial to 45,000 families in
Bundelkhand Technology change (new fish varieties and
stocking) prompted a new wave of seizures by landlords
Protests got support from state government for fishing cooperatives – basis for mobilisation
Dirty tricks and some violence were a turning point NGOs brokered relations with police and
politicians 100 ponds now under fishers’ control
Decent workDecent work
Decent work
Several trends are driving up inequality
– Flexibilization and rise of the informal economy
– Downward pressure on labour rights Incorporation of women brings mix of costs and
benefits What needs to change:
– Rebuild and change trade unions
– Reform supply chain management
– Recognize role of unpaid work
Private sector, public interest
Private firms create jobs, buy and sell to the poor, pay taxes and generate externalities
The human impact of any firm is firstly determined by sector, but within that different firms can choose to be more or less pro-poor
TNCs differ from large national firms on linkages, technology, capital flows and employment
Active Citizens ensure the private sector benefits the poor (trade unions, consumer organizations)
Effective States need to regulate and refocus attention on SMEs and national capital
Trade and development
Trade is booming Trade can be a crucial tool in overcoming poverty Rigged rules and double standards Official story in conflict with evidence on trade liberalization:
– Some liberalization-led take offs in agriculture– In manufacturing protection and state-led
industrialization is the norm– Liberalization as an outcome not an initial condition
Rise of China could change the script, by overcoming commodity trap and kicking away the ladder from other developing countries
Average annual growth 1990-2005
Making growth work for development
Growth has always been central to development – redistribution on its own seldom works
But growth is becoming more disequalizing and less effective at reducing poverty
So how to make growth work for poor people?
How change happens: Botswana
Should be a basket case: small, arid, land-locked and dependent on diamonds
Instead is Africa’s most enduring success story – GDP per capita is up 100x since 1966
Reasons include traditional inclusive governance system, leadership, hands-on role for the state, lucky timing on diamonds and good use of aid and technical assistance
Section 4
Risk and Vulnerability
Main messages
Risk and vulnerability are central to the experience of being poor
Shocks reinforce each other and have long-term impacts on health and well-being
Real (human) security lies through a combination of empowerment and protection by effective, accountable states
But the concept of security has been devalued by the war on terror
Causes of vulnerability
Causes of death worldwide
Social protection is spreading
Social assistance and social insurance One of most effective ways to reduce vulnerability,
esp. for the chronic poor (elderly, disabled etc.) Response to failure of targeted safety nets and food
aid Social protection bridges gap between emergencies
and development – challenge to Oxfam South Africa, Brazil arguing for universal basic
income guarantee – could it work at a global level?
How change happens: How change happens: India’s employment guarantee schemeIndia’s employment guarantee scheme
How change happens: India’s employment guarantee scheme All rural Indians are now guaranteed 100 days work
a year Grew from activist legal campaigns in Rajasthan
and spread of ‘rights consciousness’ Congress adopted scheme in 2004 election
manifesto, not expecting to win Sonia Gandhi and activism were crucial to ensure
implementation after the election
Finance and vulnerabilityFinance and vulnerability
Finance and vulnerability
Access to credit, insurance and savings are critical in coping with shocks
Microcredit is booming and going commercial, and is now being followed by other microfinance
8 out of 10 borrowers are women, with very high repayment rates (98% according to Grameen)
Has microfinance been oversold? Indebtedness, repayment burden and ‘forced borrowing’
Hunger and famineHunger and famine
Hunger and famine
Until current price crisis, hunger stuck at 850 million, but famine deaths have fallen
Hunger reflects power and inequality - 400m people in developing countries are now obese
Undernourishment in foetus and infancy are particularly damaging
Dealing with hunger relies primarily on self reliance and effective accountable states
Current crisis driven by switch to meat, biofuels, climate change, oil prices, and possibly speculation
Health and maternal mortality: one woman dies needlessly every minute A woman’s risk of dying ranges from one in seven
in Niger to one in 47,600 in Ireland Children who have lost their mothers are up to ten
times more likely to die prematurely More progress on other health issues, e.g. access
to water and sanitation, immunization, life expectancy
‘First world’ ailments such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are on the rise
Answer lies in investing in public health systems
Pandemics such as HIV will persist, but can be contained Illness and death drives individuals and families into
poverty At societal level, pandemics can set development back
decades New ‘zoonotic’ diseases may follow HIV in years to
come (e.g. avian flu, SARS) Active Citizenship is particularly important for diseases
that have no cure, like HIV Political leadership can make or break response (Brazil
v South Africa) Global collaboration showed effectiveness in case of
SARS outbreak of 2002/3
How change happens: How change happens: the Treatment Action Campaignhe Treatment Action Campaign
How change happens: the Treatment Action Campaign TAC is an organization of HIV positive people in
South Africa
Led a campaign against big pharmaceuticals in court cases of 2001, then moved on to South African government, demanding access to antiretrovirals
Used legal challenges, official participatory structures, outsider tactics and alliances
Partial progress in changing government policy
Natural disasters
Deaths have halved over last 30 years (to 200 a day) due to risk reduction such as early warning systems
Natural disasters highlight inequality– hit poor countries and communities hardest
Disaster preparedness and risk reduction require Active Citizens and Effective States
Improving ‘downward accountability’ is a priority
Climate change is already hitting poor countries and people Rich countries created the problem; poor
countries/communities will be worst hit through drought, floods, disease and falling agricultural yields
Impacts already occurring (e.g. for pastoralists) Helping victims adapt will be essential whatever
happens on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) Will also mean ‘climate proofing’ existing development
programmes This requires technology transfer, self organization,
diversifying livelihoods and effective state support i.e. climate change means that good development
becomes more urgent than ever
Conflict is both symptom and cause of poverty and inequality Violence, poverty and inequality are interwoven –
against women, crime, abuse by authorities, civil war Progress on gender-based violence through legislation
and women’s organization After bloody 20th C, post Cold War has left rump of 30
‘poverty conflicts’ mainly in Africa Conflict = failure of politics, but some have acquired
economic logic of their own Active Citizens: self organization to reduce conflict Effective States: including providing livelihoods for ex-
combatants
Dilemma: shocks and change
History shows that shocks and their aftermath are crucial ‘moments of opportunity’ for change
But when shocks hit, outside ‘change agents’ like Oxfam either leave or go quiet!
How could we change our response to shocks in order to promote positive change as well as humanitarian relief?
Section 5
The International System
Main messages
International system must do more of some things, less of others. This includes:
More attention to governance of global public goods and bads, including climate change, migration, taxation, and knowledge
‘Stop doing harm’ on issues such as trade, arms trade, corruption, climate change
Support national development processes, by backing Active Citizens and Effective States
Democracy and accountability in global institutions
Global governance growing but no overall plan. Ideally, role includes: Regulating the global economy Co-ordinating big countries (e.g. via G8) Redistributing wealth, technology, and knowledge Averting environmental or health threats Avoiding/managing war Preventing powerful countries or corporations
from harming weaker and poorer ones Protecting the most vulnerable Changing attitudes and beliefs
World Bank and IMF
25 years of adjustment-based lending are coming to an end (thankfully). IFIs are at crossroads
Failure and eclipse of Washington Consensus, but
– Bank has changed more than the Fund
– Washington changed more than ‘the field’ New direction should involve:
– Focus on global public goods
– Separate policy advice from lending
– Return focus to rich country policy failure
– Reform institutions (starting with the bosses)
FinanceFinance
Finance
$3 trillion crosses borders every day (100 x trade) Finance most volatile form of cross border flow and
least suitable for rapid liberalization Financial crises becoming deeper and more frequent,
usually followed by massive bailouts, ratcheting up inequality
Capital controls can be useful tools, but are being pegged back by BITs, RTAs
International action is needed to reduce tax evasion/avoidance (est. $385bn per year)
International taxation (e.g. carbon, arms, Tobin) and global tax institutions could raise $, or agree global floor on corporation tax
Trade: rigged rules and double standards Prevalent in 5 areas: barriers, subsidies, forced
liberalization, intellectual property, and migration Global focus on WTO has hidden growing
importance of RTAs and BITs with ‘WTO plus’ clauses
Paralysis of Doha is a symptom of shift to multi-polar world v mercantilist negotiating
Trade realities remain more important than trade rules
TNCs have imbalance of rights v responsibilities
Intellectual property: knowledge protectionism IP = patents, copyrights, and trademarks A developed, innovating “North” and a developing,
imitating “South” makes knowledge flows crucial Balance between encouraging innovation and
spreading knowledge destroyed by TRIPs– In 2005, developing countries paid out $17bn in
royalty and licence fees– TRIPS keeps medicines expensive– Biopiracy is widespread
Replace TRIPs with an access to knowledge convention?
Migration
A common and effective response to poverty The last great protectionism (along with knowledge) Those who do migrate face barriers and
mistreatment Current remittance flows to developing countries =
$240bn – poverty reduction and protection against shocks
Objections are often misplaced, but a political minefield
Best option: enhanced temporary migration Do we need a World Migration Organization?
Harnessing the transnationals
Privileges and powers but few responsibilities Growth driven by changes in business,
technology, and politics Concerns include value chains, labour rights,
extractive industries, and corruption Good progress at UN and sectoral level, e.g. anti-
corruption conventions Disputed progress on ‘corporate social
responsibility’ Rise in southern TNCs e.g. in telecoms, mining,
forestry, infrastructure
Aid
Successes: Marshall Plan, take-off countries, EU structural funds
Altruism, hubris, and self interest Turnaround since 2000, but donors backtracking
on promises and serious quality problems How can aid support development? Do: fund watchdogs, fund long-term, support state
capacity, put government in the driving seat, ensure downwards accountability
Don’t: impose conditions, support parallel systems, and poach staff
How change happens: How change happens: the Gleneagles agreementthe Gleneagles agreement
How change happens: the Gleneagles agreement 2005 G8 a high point for aid campaigners: leaders
agreed to raise aid levels by $50bn by 2010 and deepen debt write-off
Despite subsequent backsliding, still an important statement of intent
Combination of government (e.g. Commission for Africa) and civil society activism (Make Poverty History and celebrities)
Repetition important at G8 (cf. climate change) Tsunami and London bombings were factors
Dilemma: is aid like oil?
Impact on
– Policy (conditionality)
– Institutions (transaction costs, paying the piper)
– Politics (severing the social contract)
How big is the political deficit, and how can good aid overcome it?
International NGOs
Growth and shift from project to advocacy, and from national to global
3 main functions: implementers, catalysts, partners Major challenges:
– Accountability– Relationship to local activists and NGOs– Funding/profile driven– Relationship to the state– Make the UN look streamlined…– Being sucked into service delivery– Too cautious
Climate change: a global problem needs global solutions Mitigation involves combination of standards,
subsidies and taxes
Kyoto II = key global governance event in coming years
Adaptation funding also vital, Oxfam estimates $50bn a year needed
Concerns on carbon trading as main response
United States of America
43%
Japan13%
Germany7%
United Kingdom5%
Italy5%
France5%
Canada4%
Australia3%
Spain3%
Others12%
Adaptation funding responsibilities
Dilemma: are there environmental limits to growth? Increasing environmental constraints on growth
have profound implications for economic policy and the battle against inequality
Carbon intensity of growth and its efficiency in reducing poverty and inequality will become more critical
Can the system achieve a low carbon growth model and if not, what has to change?
Carbon intensity: falling too slowly, and has now gone into reverse
What level of technology transfer is required?
1.6
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath =
“ram
p”
Historical emissions Flat path
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, sameglobal emissions as today
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Fuel Switching (1)
CO2 Capture & Storage (3)
Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil Storage (2)
Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)
Nuclear Fission (1)
The humanitarian system
Only 6% of total aid
Improving but still a mess. Main failings:
– Too little too late, but CERF is hopeful
– Distributed according to CNN or geopolitics, rather than need
– Too many organizations. UN particularly byzantine
Humanitarian aid warped by food aid – expensive, demeaning and can undermine local agriculture
Peace and peace-keeping
‘Responsibility to Protect’ – an important UN achievement
Force should only be last resort UN blue helmets up 6 x since 1998 Rich countries give $, poor ones give soldiers Does UN need a standing military force? Arms Trade Treaty needed War on terror undermines peace-keeping/R2P
How change happens: How change happens: the landmines banthe landmines ban
How change happens: the landmines ban 1997 ban treaty has led to a sharp fall in deaths. In
2005 only Myanmar, Russia and Nepal acknowledged using them and producer countries were down from 50 to 13
Ban rode post Cold War wave of optimism International Campaign to Ban Landmines worked
closely with a handful of governments, e.g. Canada, Norway, Austria, and South Africa
Gained momentum by moving outside UN system and insisting on total ban – no watering down
Conclusion
A New Deal For A New Century
Elements of a new deal Active Citizens
Effective States
A new economics
What role for rich countries/institutions?– Do no harm– Solve global problems that need global solutions– Support Active Citizens and Effective States
The last word:
Human progress is neither automatic
nor inevitable... Over the bleached
bones of numerous civilizations are
written the pathetic words: Too late.
Martin Luther King, 1968
“
”
