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1 2016
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Fragility curves and probabilistic floor spectra module
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Why?
• Uncertainty / uncertainties are part of the life of any system: uses, environment, choice of
architecture
• Yet the engineer seeks to design and maintain systems Robust: insensitive to variations of environment or use in particular
Reliable: with guaranteed performances over a fixed lifetime
And economic (to produce and / or maintain)!
How? For 15 years, Phimeca approach has been based on conjugation
• From the modeling of physics: 3D modeling (finite elements) or 0D / 1D modeling
• From data modeling: data mining or expert models
• In compliance with regulatory frameworks
Phimeca: Robust engineering
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Seismic Probabilistic Safety Analysis
Fre
qu
en
cy o
f e
xce
ed
ance
Intensity measure
Seismic Hazard
Even
t tr
ee System analysis
Pro
bab
ility
d
en
sity
Frequency
Releases frequencies Consequences • Atmospheric
Dispersion • Health • Evacuation • …
Intensity measure
Component fragility
Co
nd
itio
nal
P
rob
abili
ty o
f f
ailu
re
Methods Observations Expert judgement Numerical Simulation
Context
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Context
Earthquakes Soils/Buildings Equipments
Seismic hazard Civil engineering Structural analyses
Seismic hazard Soil
Building 1
Building 2
Equipment 1
Equipment 2
Equipment 3
Equipment 4
Exemple :
To face the safety, security and environmental challenges
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Objectives
Fragility module
Deterministic
analysis
Hazard
Model parameters
Soil impedances
Probabilistic post-processing
Fragility curves
Probabilistic floor spectra
Accelerograms
Structural analysis
study
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Objectives
Fragility module in SALOME Platform
« Model definition »
« Seismic signals »
« Soil »
« Uncertainties »
« Fragility curves »
« Probabilistic floor spectra »
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Model definition
To define the deterministic seismic analysis to be performed (commands files, mesh
files, …)
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Seismic signals
To apply seismic signals (natural or previously generated) defined in files
To generate synthetic accelerograms using GENE_ACCE_SEISME command of
Code_Aster;
• « Add » : To define general characteristics of the seismic signals
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Seismic signals
• « Signals type » : to define the type of the seismic signal
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Seismic signals
• « Signals type » : to define the type of the seismic signal
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Deterministic modeling of the soil
Probabilistic modeling of the soil
• Between a set of soil characteristics
• Using random variables for soil characteristics
• …
Soil
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The shape of this interface will be based on PhimecaSoft or OpenTURNS interface in SALOME-
MECA platform ;
Uncertainties
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To build fragility curves from previous analyses
To build fragility curves from current analyses
Fragility curves
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To perform probabilistic floor spectra
Post-processing points
Probabilistic floor spectra
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Next steps
Beta version without soil modeling
Version in Salomé-Méca for EDF users
Beta version with soil modeling
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In summary, Fragility curves and probabilistic floor
spectra module aims at helping engineers
To work with better ergonomics
To capitalize their works
To have a better productivity
To increase the quality of the studies
To reduce tedious and boring tasks
