Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne Challenges of global change for sustainable

Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe

May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne

Challenges of global change for sustainable water use in the German Elbe basin

*Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Overview

1. Water related facts, trends & concepts

2. Integrative Methodological Approach

3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts

□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry

□ Water availability in Spree-Havel

5. Adjusting measures □ Spree-Havel basin

Fig. 1 The Elbe basin


Rural beside of metropolitan areas (Berlin, Prague, Hamburg, Leipzig, Dresden).

Water availability second lowest in Europe (680 m3/capita year).



Mild climate (8.6°C) with low precipitation totals (616 mm)

Climatic water balance (P-Epot) just even.

Rich on surface water.

Territory share of the German part by East German states: 88% .

East-German transition (since 1989)



Welfare• Initial increase in per capita income

from about 10 to 16 thousand €.• Investments in public infrastructure.• Deindustrialisation:

> Net loss of 3 Mill. Working places.• Shrinking population:

> Emigration,> Dropped birth rates from 1.6 to 0.77, recently climbing back to 1.3.

Water sector• Increase in water quality.• 12 000 ha lake surface for Lusatia.• High GDP share of primary sectors:

> gas, energy & water supply and Agriculture.

• Oversized water infrastructure.• Increasing water prices.• Decreasing water consumption per

capita.

Climate Drying



+1.1 °C

-46 mm, Summer

+50 mm, Winter

Recent 50 year changes

Temperature

Precipitation

Policies for sustainable use of surface water:

• Alleviation of landscape run off, increasing the residence time of surface water.

• Further decrease of nutrient emissions from point and diffuse sources.

GLOWA-Elbe: Applicability under global change and necessary specifications.


Overview

1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrative Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts




4 Evaluation

1 Scenario

2 Indicators & criteria

3 Impact

4 Evaluation

1 Scenario


3 Impact

2. Integrative Methodological Approach- Distributed Mode

IMA-General:

• Reference system to control research activities within a global change project.

4 Evaluation

1 Scenario


3 Impact

4 Evaluation

1 Scenario


3 Impact

IMA-Distributed Mode

• Adjusting to specific needs

• Directing

• Harmonizing and

• Synchronizing research.

Water quality:

N-Entry

Water quantity: surface water regulation

1 2

3

4

Indicators & criteriaScenarios

Impact analysis

Evaluation

Stakeholder acceptance

Par

ticip

atio

n

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3

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Impact analysis

Evaluation


Par

ticip

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Glowa-Elbe control

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Impact analysis

Evaluation


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rtic

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tion

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Impact analysis

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tion

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Impact analysis

Evaluation


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tion

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Impact analysis

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Spree-Havel

BerlinSpreewald1 2

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Impact analysis

Evaluation


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tion

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Impact analysis

Evaluation


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2. Integrated Methodological Approach- Research Network

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Impact analysis

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Elbe Elbe German Unstrut

Basic definitions:• topics & • scales.

Refinement specific problem structures, regional hot spots, and the available knowledge.

Harmonizing: scenarios, indicators.Crosschecking: simulations.Final integration: extra- and interpolations, aggregation.

Overview





6. Outlook

3. Global change scenarios

ECHAM4-OPYC3

REMO

Global

Europe

German Elbe

NEURO-FUZZY STARNEURO-FUZZY STAR

comparably most likely of 100 statistical realization

mm K-1

Year -58 -66

Summer -36 -14

Winter -19 -39

ClimateHow likely is further regional drying in the German Elbe basin ?

General socioeconomic development, perspectives for agriculture and brown coal mining

3. Global change scenarios

From A1/ B2 SRES storylines

• general economic growth

• population change

• operating margins of single sectors (tourism) and sector policies.

and sub-sequently specific sector scenarios were formulated

Agricultural policy:

• ‚Partial liberalization‘ following A1

• ‚Fees on mineral N fertilizer‘ use following B2

Brown coal mining in Lusatia:

• No alternative A1 policy

• Finishing after 2035 in consistency with B2

Overview

1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrated Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts




6. Outlook

1 Scenario


3 Impact

1 Scenario


3 Impact

Water quality

Climate 2025-2016 vs. 1990-2000

∆(P-Epot): -27 mm

Frames of development Status ex (Business as usual) Partial liberalisation Nitrogen fee

Farms Nitrogen surpluss not altered by climate change, significantly decreased ‘only’ by Nitrogen fee

Nitrogen entry to the Elbe

decreased only when Nitrogen surplus was reduced

3 Impact 2 Indicators & criteria

1 Problem

1 Scenario

4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin

Frame of development

1999 2020

status- partial N- STAR

quo * status-ex * liberalization* fee* 32**

Indicators

• P-Epot [mm]

• Yields1 [dt/ha]

Cereals

Oilseeds

• Arable land2

[million ha]

• Farms N-surplus2

• N-entry3

simulated by 1) SWIM, Hattermann et al. (2005, Kapitel II-2.2.2), 2) RAUMIS, Gömann et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.1.1), 3) MONERIS, Behrendt et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.2)* recent climate 1996-1999, ** scenario climate 2016-2025


11651 hydrotops, daily mode

112 districts, yearly mode

184Subbasins, 5 year mode

1 Scenario


3 Impact

1 Scenario


3 Impact

Frame of development

1999 2020

status- partial N- STAR

quo * status-ex * liberalization* fee* 32**

Indicators change [mm] to status-ex

• P-Epot [mm] 2 2 N N -27

change [%] to status-ex

• Yields1 [dt/ha]

Cereals 6.2 8.2 ▼▼▼ ▼

Oilseeds 3.4 5.2 ▼▼▼ ▼

• Arable land2

[million ha] 4.1 4.1 ▼▼▼ ▼

• Farms N-surplus2 74 69 ▼ ▼▼▼ N

change [%] to status-quo (=100)

• N-entry3

change [%] to status-ex

▼▼ N

simulated by 1) SWIM, Hattermann et al. (2005, Kapitel II-2.2.2), 2) RAUMIS, Gömann et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.1.1), 3) MONERIS, Behrendt et al. (2005, Kapitel I-2.2)* recent climate 1996-1999, ** scenario climate 2016-2025


1 Scenario


3 Impact

1 Scenario


3 Impact at the same

order as STAR 32 impact on

Et and

Run off

Overview





1 Scenario


3 Impact

1 Scenario


3 Impact

Flooding of misused coal pits

duration increased by about 6 month, extra demand of 1000 t calc hydrate for neutralization treatment

Climate2020-2050 vs. 1990-2000 ∆P: - 29 mm ∆T: + 0.5°K

Frame of development: business as usual

Inflow to Berlin the minimum of 8m3/s could not be guaranteed anymore during the summer of a dry year

Water availability in Spree-Havel


1 Problem

1 Scenario

3 Impact

4. 2. Scenario impacts: Water availability in Spree-Havel

1 Scenario


3 Impact

1 Scenario


3 Impact

WBALMO400 water users14 reservoirs170 local balances

Overview

1. Water related facts, trends & concepts2. Integrated Methodological Approach3. Global change scenarios4. Scenario impacts




4 Evaluation

1 Scenario


3 Impact

4 Evaluation

1 Scenario


3 Impact

1 Problem Water availability in Spree-Havel

1 Scenario

Climate: Frame of development: Management alternatives at the upper Spree region:

o Basis

o Accelerated flooding

o Reduced ditches

o Water imports from the Oderbasin at Spreewald hight

o Water import from the Oder at Berlin hight

o SRES A1

o SRES B2

o Recent

o STAR100


Net benefit discounted at 2% for water supply, fish farming, water treatment &tourism at the new lake sites

Water availability for industry and ecosystems Inflow for Spreewald and Berlin

5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin

Net benefit______________________________

Water availability

____________Inflow

__________

wa

ter su

pp

ly

Fish

farm

ing

wa

ter tre

atm

en

t

tou

rism a

t the

ne

w la

ke site

s

ind

ustry

eco

system

s

Sp

ree

wa

ld

Be

rlin

Meanrank

Ranking1)

Recent

basis

3 5 4 4 2 4 3 4 4

STAR1002) 3 4 3 5 3 3 3 4 4

recent accelerated flooding

5 2 5 1 5 1 2 2 3

STAR100 5 2 5 1 5 1 2 2 3

recent reduced ditches

4 1 3 2 2 2 5 5 3

STAR100 4 1 4 3 3 3 5 5 4

recentOder BrB

1 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 2

STAR100 1 5 1 2 1 2 1 2 2

recentOder Bln

2 4 2 4 2 4 3 2 3

STAR100 2 3 2 4 2 3 3 1 3

1) strategy is the better the lower the rank (1- best, 5-worst)2) analysis across all 100 realisations of the scenario

4 Evaluation

1 Scenario


3 Impact

Of course, sensitive to suggested

discount rate !

5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin

1Scenario

3Impact

4E

valu

atio

n


Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)

Regional actors, decision bodies

Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change

Glo

ba

lC

ha

ng

eM

ana

gem

ent

lev

el

Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis

Management-options

Impact-analysis

Evaluation

Project IV:

Surface Water Quality

Nutrient entry

Cost-efficiency analysis

Eco-hydrological Indicators

Socio-economic Indicators

Project III:

Surface Water Availability

Run off regulation

Multi-criteria analysis

Eco-hydrological Indicators

Socio-economic Indicators

Pro

ject adviso

ry bo

ard

Severe water shortages at Berlin after 2030 during the summer month.

Adaptation:• Accelerated flooding of

abandoned coal pits,• Earlier introduction of water

saving technologies,• Longer Mining (?).

• Climate drying might continue.

• Nitrogen entry to the Elbe river and finally to the North Sea is robust to climate change.

• Management strategies that reduce the nitrogen surplus of agricultural land are needed.

Vattenfall Europe (for water availability) and Agriculture (for

water quality) are key regional actors for matching sustainability standards and adjusting to global

change !

IMA feasible concept for distributed global change research.

Conclusion

WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de

Thank You

For Your Attention!

Documents

Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne Challenges of global change for sustainable