Free Will in Political Science:

Structure and Agency

Structure: the context and material conditions that either

(a) restrict the range of political options available to

individuals and groups (weak version)

A political world dominated by structure is patterned and

explainable.

Free will in political science: Why do

political events happen? Structure

and agency as alternative views.

Or:

(b) fully determine political events (strong version)

Agency: the ability of individuals and groups

to think and act consciously and, in so doing,

to formulate and realize their intentions.

A political world dominated by agency is without patterns and

difficult to explain.

Agency is roughly analogous to

libertarian free will. People decide to act

a certain way, and those decisions then

shape political events.

The strong version of a structural account is deterministic,

which means that it still allows for compatibilist free will.

An application. Suppose we want to

predict whether someone in the U.S. voted

for the Democratic or the Republican

presidential candidate (excluding third

parties).

If you know nothing about a person, and the parties

are competitive, you might as well flip a coin. Your error

rate is 50%.

Now suppose you know 10 demographic

characteristics of each person.

income

education

social class

age

gender

race/ethnicity

religion

frequency of attendance at worship services

region

union household

One can use a simple statistical model to

estimate the effect of each characteristic on

a person’s vote choice.

Once you know these demographic

characteristics for each person, your error

rate over the 2008, 2012, and 2016

elections is 27%-29%.

What do these results imply for compatibilist free will?

Absolutely nothing. Even if people’s votes were fully

predictable (i.e., if voting were a deterministic process),

people would still have compatibilist free will so long

as there was no coercion.

What do these results imply for libertarian free will?

On the one hand, you could find libertarian free will in the

fact that the error rate is not zero, meaning that voting

does not seem to be a deterministic process.

On the other hand, with better data and a more sophisticated

statistical model, we could shrink the error rate.

The more predictable voting becomes, the closer we move

to a purely structural explanation, and the less room for

agency and libertarian free will.

Picking up now from our last class.

Philosopher Stephen Cave: use free will for

your own life, but we’ll have more

compassion—and better public policies—if we

understand other people through determinism.

An application. Addiction was historically

understood as a moral failing, a type of free

will. Those views were replaced (among

experts) by a disease model where addiction

stems from nature and nurture.

Two relevant questions: first, why does a person develop

an addiction? Second, what is most likely to spur

recovery: calling addiction a moral failing, a disease, or

something else?

Experts now see depression, like addiction, through nature

and nurture. One popular treatment is cognitive behavioral

therapy, which uses practical and goal-oriented strategies

to try to change a person’s patterns of thinking and

behaving.

Many of the same principles apply to depression.

Some people, trying to help, will tell a depressed

person, “You have so much to live for. Just snap

out of it.”

• Strong version: You can achieve whatever you want in

America, regardless of your background, if you’re willing to

work hard.

The American dream presumes at least

some form of free will.

Lady Gaga on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, starting at 2:20:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MagImMpI7M&

• Weak version: You can better yourself in America,

regardless of your background, if you’re willing to work

hard.

In Poor Richard’s Almanack, Benjamin

Franklin offered aphorisms that later

came to be associated with the American

dream.

The American dream has undergone many different

expressions and iterations since early in American history.

There are no gains, without pains

Early to bed, early to rise,

Makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise

Diligence is the mother of good luck

Beware of little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship

‘Tis easier to suppress the first desire than to satisfy all that

follow it

For age and want, save while you may

No morning sun lasts a whole day

Consistent with Stephen Cave’s article: Regardless of how

you answer that question, individuals might be better off

believing in the American dream, if it inspires them to take

actions that make it a self-fulfilling prophesy (and the

converse might apply as well).

Is the American dream an achievable reality (in either

version)? A mirage? Or a reality for some and a mirage for

others?

A modern reboot of the American dream: Rhonda Byrne,

The Secret (film in 2006, book in 2007)

“The Secret” is the (bogus) “law of attraction”: by

focusing on positive or negative thoughts, people can

bring positive or negative experiences into their

lives. People and their thoughts are both made from "pure

energy," and like attracts like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77dfwznOjvw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ3HSQcmjNM

The film and book of The Secret initially languished in

Byrne’s home country of Australia but became a

phenomenon in America.

Another reboot of the American dream: prosperity

theology. God wants you to achieve wealth, health,

happiness, and a full life. Requires faith, prayer, and

giving money to God through a ministry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCQsdHqx3ao&, beginning

at 4:03