Freight Demand Modeling: Tools for Public-Sector

Decision Making

First National Conference

September 25-27, 2006Washington D.C.

Sponsored byTRB

FHWAU.S. ACE

RITAFRA

Kathleen Hancock PE, PhDAssociate Director CGITVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

• to provide participants with an appreciation of– the importance of freight transportation – the role of analytical tools to describe and predict the

impacts of modal trade patterns on the public and private transportation systems

• to engage members of the freight transportation community in

– examining current modeling practice– identifying areas where improvement is needed

GOALSGOALS

Key ObservationsKey Observations

• Freight and logistic sectors critically important

• Political and jurisdictional boundaries do not define market interrelationships

Megapolitan vs Political Boundaries

Source: R E Lang and D Dhavale, “Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s New “Megapolitan” Geography”, METROPOLITAN INSTITUTE CENSUS REPORT SERIES, Census Report 05:01 (July 2005).

Key ObservationsKey Observations

• Different decision tools for different contexts

Decision Making Context

Multi-National (e.g., NAFTA)

Global

National / Federal

MegaRegions, Multi-state, Market-oriented, Trade corridors

State

Metropolitan

Local/Site

Key ObservationsKey Observations

• Decisions very broad / multidisciplinary

Strategic Investment Decisions

System (Real Time) Operations

System Management

System Planning

Econometric models

Input-output

Network flow/land use/impact models

Trend analysis

Logistics modeling

Micro simulation

Data analysis

Heuristics

Modeling Context• Four-step model paradigm an artifact of

passenger demand modeling

• Not just one type of model– logistics models

– flow models

– micro-simulations

– Econometric models

– hybrids, etc

Maybe one does not need a model

Domain Context• Marriage of different disciplines

– regional economics

– industrial engineering

– civil engineering

– urban geography

– logistics

– management/business, etc.

• Multidisciplinary approach to research

Key ObservationsKey Observations

• Data mandatory

Data Context• Data collection paradigm of periodic

data updates outdated….need examination of continuous data input

• Data partnerships - “harsh dose of reality”

Key ObservationsKey Observations• Freight and logistic sectors critically important

• Political and jurisdictional boundaries do not define market interrelationships

• Different decision tools for different contexts

• Decisions very broad / multidisciplinary

• Data mandatory

• Education of decision makers, users, providers important

The MATRICES

General Research Needs

• Best practices in modeling and other techniques and data for different decision making contexts

• Guidance on “how to get there”

• Syntheses of the current state of the knowledge

Research Needs—Geography

• Data and decision tools depend on the level of geography being considered

• Robust national freight flow model

Research Needs—Data1

• National data on through-metropolitan area movements

• Development of a “freight data architecture” and application scenarios

• Systematic and linked approach toward data collection and use

• Leadership in using available public and private databases

Research Needs—Data2

• Assessment of ITS technologies • PUMS equivalent for freight geographic

information• Approach to capture raw trend data on a

routine basis and industry wide• Move from traditional paradigm of periodic,

five-year data collection to continuous flow of data

• Sub-sample updating and sample size increase of CFS

• Bayesian decision networks

Research Needs—Data3

• More surveys when conducting decennial census

• Case studies of where collaborative data efforts have occurred

• Transfer of data conclusions and underlying relationships

• Better understanding of the transfer of methodologies and data use

Research Needs—Data4e

• Best practices of truck origin-destination collection methodologies and classification count matrices

• Additional guidance like Quick Response Freight Manual

• Information about “logistics for public receivers”, ie government buildings, schools

• Relationship between land use and freight data• Improvements and survivability of CFS and

VIUS

Research Needs—Decision Support Tools1

• Freight Model Improvement Program (FMIP)

• Key variables and relationships among variables for shipping decisions

• Guidance like Quick Response Freight Manual

• Strategies to communicate applicability and value of different decision tools

• Decision support tools that incorporate uncertainty and risk

Research Needs—Decision Support Tools2

• Link to modeling at more disaggregate geographic levels from national models

• Proof of model’s value and viability be disseminated…feedback loop

• Comparison of state-of-the-art models

• Freight operational models within decision analysis framework

Research Needs—Decision Support Tools3e

• Safety module as post processor of freight modeling• Decision tools that link econometric and

transportation models• Decision tools that incorporate logistics• Multimodal and intermodal understanding; including

short sea shipping, inland water, air cargo, etc.• Analysis tools that show environmental and land use

effects of different investment and operational strategies at metropolitan area and local levels

Challenge“The four CCs”

How to develop a constituency for the results of freight planning

How to develop a constituency for the results of freight planning that is led by champions

How to develop a constituency for the results of freight planning that is led by champions based on collaborative undertakings

How to develop a constituencyconstituency for the results of freight planning that is led by championschampions based on collaborativecollaborative undertakings that responds to customercustomer (of the information) needs?