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Freight Logistics and the Panama Canal Expansion
Robert HarrisonCenter for Transportation Research
UT AustinJune 29 2012
State Economies and Transportation
• US GDP in 2011 Dollars • California 13.1%; Texas 8.7%; New York 7.7%• Texas has critical transportation corridors that play a state and national role – TxDOT
• Gateways, corridors, modes and hubs• Two Megaregions (America 2050)• Class 1 Rail networks and strategies reflect a system‐wide planning
• Major deep water ports and Intracoastal Waterway
Texas Imports and Exports
• 2011 Trade Data ‐ $ Billion• Imports $ 309 (22% US Total)• Exports $ 251 (14 % US Total)• Aggregate $ 570, California $ 511• Modal corridors: pipelines, highways, rail, deep water ports, intra‐coastal waterway, air freight
• These combine to form the domestic supply chains and hubs driving big freight flows
Freight Logistics
• Addresses commodity characteristics – speed, value, inventory, security, reliability
• Connects modes at key transfer points• Is dynamic and responds to input changes like fuel price
• Sensitive to all operational costs• Innovative• Prefers choice
Global Trade
• 1990s NAFTA was a US and Texas Focus• 2000‐2012 Global Trade becomes significant and impacts US and Texas trade corridors at several deep water ports and air hubs
• Larger Panama Canal locks raise efficiencies for Savannah and Charleston, Florida, and Gulf Port Asian imports and exports
• Canal Authority claim it is a “game changer”
Global Trade More Than TEUs
• Liquid Bulk – oils, chemicals• Dry Bulk – grains, ores, steel, forest products • Autos• Break Bulk – machinery, oil well equipment• Containers – dry, hi‐top, reefers
Panama Canal ExpansionA Texas Logistics Perspective
• Ship size expands choice• Provides the potential for reducing costs• Offers a boost to exports• Longer term impacts more important than short term impacts to state economy
• North‐South trade strongest in the next 5 years
Liner Services ThroughThe Panama Canal
Liner Services ThroughThe Panama Canal
Trade Route Number of Services
Yearly Capacity
Number of Vessels
Average Vessel Size
Asia - USEC 13 3,008,960 120 4,440 Pendulum 3 747,626 41 4,784 WCSA - Europe 8 1,097,730 56 2,900 Asia - Caribbean 1 239,232 11 4,588 WCSA - Caribbean 1 97,537 3 2,405 WCSA - USEC 3 378,975 18 2,423 Oceania - USEC – Europe 2 209,276 16 2,654 USWC - Europe 2 283,155 14 3,255 USWC - ECSA 1 100,010 5 1,918
RotterdamAntwerpDunkirk
Hamburg
BilbaoMarin
Guayaquil
Callao
San Antonio
MejillonesAntofagasta
Manta
Cartagena
Ensenada
ManzanilloKingston
P. Caucedo
ManzanilloPort of SpainP. Cabello
Cristobal
Chiwan
ShanghaiBusan
NingboKaohsiung
Qingdao
Hong Kong
Jacksonville
HoustonMiami
SavannahCharleston
Mobile
New York
Tangier
Dubai
SidneyMelbourne
NapierTauranga
Papeete
LautokaNoumea
Tilbury
Le Havre
San Juan PR
Iquique
Ilo
Taipei
PyongtaekYokohama
Tokyo
Yantian
Los Angeles
Oakland
Norfolk
MelbourneTauranga
Sidney
Timaru
Auckland
Port Chalmers
Vancouver
Balboa
Seattle
Lázaro Cardenas
Pto. Quetzal
La SpeziaNaples
Valencia Gioia Tauro
Source: Compair Data, January 2011
Port Development in Panama
1996: 235K TEUs2010: 5.6M TEUs2015: 8.4M TEUs(P)
Panama Ports Company –Cristobal
Colon Container Terminal Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT)
Panama Ports Company -
Balboa
TransisthmianPipeline
ColonFree Zone
Fiber Optic Duct BankingCenter
Panama-PacificSpecial Economic
ZoneReal EstateTechnology and
InnovationCenter
Value-Added Components of Panama’s Transportation and
Logistics Cluster
Trans‐shipment?
• Colon – Houston 1528* 4 days
• Colon – Savannah 1563* 4 days
• Colon – Freeport/Houston 2276* 7 Days
*Nautical miles
Strategic Response?• Short term:
Current facilities will serve the increases in PC trade volumes, but post‐Panamax size limited to 45 ft. channel draft, removing key system‐wide bottlenecks, particularly at or near landside terminals
Monitor shallow draft port energy related growth and GIWW traffic
• Medium term:
Improved rail access to deep water terminals, planning new terminals near deep water with 50 ft. channels
• Long term:
Diversion to other trade corridors if channels remain at 45 ft.
Panama Canal Expansion
• Impacts now becoming more modest• Shift of manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia make Suez Canal competitive
• Export markets may be limited by inadequate port infrastructure
• Railroads will protect market share on competing corridors
• Texas port value critical to state economy and needs to be captured in TxDOT planning
Maritime TxDOT Planning
• Partner with deep water ports, railroad companies and key GIWW users
• Monitor new services for bulk, break bulk and containers imports and exports
• Determine potential constraints: accessing ports (channels), terminal efficiencies and landside connections, both highway, rail and barge
• Short, medium and long term impacts