French Election: 2007French Election: 2007

Concern with Electoral Systems: does the Concern with Electoral Systems: does the electoral system determine the party electoral system determine the party system?system?

French Electoral System.French Electoral System. The Presidential Election: Two RoundsThe Presidential Election: Two Rounds

– Round 1: Many Candidates (2007, 12 candidates).Round 1: Many Candidates (2007, 12 candidates).– Round 2: If no majority, two weeks later.Round 2: If no majority, two weeks later.

Top 2 candidates.Top 2 candidates.

2002 Election: “D’Amato Effect.”2002 Election: “D’Amato Effect.”

D’Amato EffectD’Amato Effect

– Jacques Chirac: center-right (19.88%, Jacques Chirac: center-right (19.88%, 5.7M)5.7M)

– Jean-Marie Le Pen: far right (16.9%, 4.8M)Jean-Marie Le Pen: far right (16.9%, 4.8M)– Lionel Jospin: Socialist (16.2%, 4.6M)Lionel Jospin: Socialist (16.2%, 4.6M)

Other Left CandidatesOther Left CandidatesWorkers Struggle, 5.7%Workers Struggle, 5.7%Revolutionary Communist League, 4.25%Revolutionary Communist League, 4.25%Communist Party, 3.4%Communist Party, 3.4%Citizen Movement, 5.3%*Citizen Movement, 5.3%*

* Socialist, anti-Europe* Socialist, anti-Europe

2002 Election2002 Election

Round 1: Many Candidates.Round 1: Many Candidates.– Jacques Chirac: center-right (19.88%, 5.7M)Jacques Chirac: center-right (19.88%, 5.7M)– Jean-Marie Le Pen: far right (16.9%, 4.8M)Jean-Marie Le Pen: far right (16.9%, 4.8M)– Lionel Jospin: Socialist (16.2%, 4.6M)Lionel Jospin: Socialist (16.2%, 4.6M)– But, other left candidates.But, other left candidates.

Arlette Laguiller, Trotskyite (5.7%, 1.6M)Arlette Laguiller, Trotskyite (5.7%, 1.6M)

Olivier Besancenot, Trotskyite (4.3%, 1.2M)Olivier Besancenot, Trotskyite (4.3%, 1.2M)

Robert Hue, Communist (3.4%, 1M)Robert Hue, Communist (3.4%, 1M)

2007 Candidates2007 Candidates Major CandidatesMajor Candidates Nicolas Sarkozy, center-right, UMPNicolas Sarkozy, center-right, UMP Segolene Royal, Socialist Party Segolene Royal, Socialist Party Francois Bayrou, MoDem, formerly UDFFrancois Bayrou, MoDem, formerly UDF Jean-Marie Le Pen, National Front Jean-Marie Le Pen, National Front Other “left” candidatesOther “left” candidates Olivier Besancenot, Revolutionary Olivier Besancenot, Revolutionary

Communist League Communist League Arlette Laguiller, Workers’ Struggle Arlette Laguiller, Workers’ Struggle Marie-George Buffet, CommunistMarie-George Buffet, Communist

2-Round System2-Round System

Does the 2-round system encourage Does the 2-round system encourage multi-partyism?multi-partyism?

French saying: “On the 1French saying: “On the 1stst round, vote round, vote your heart; one the 2your heart; one the 2ndnd round, vote round, vote your strategy.”your strategy.”

So, 2 Trotskyite parties + Communist So, 2 Trotskyite parties + Communist Party + radical “greens.”Party + radical “greens.”

Hunting Fishing Nature Tradition (4.2%)Hunting Fishing Nature Tradition (4.2%) Syndicalist Party (anti-globalization).Syndicalist Party (anti-globalization).

Protest Voting: 2002Protest Voting: 2002

Workers’ Struggle …… 5.7%Workers’ Struggle …… 5.7% Revolutionary Communist League …Revolutionary Communist League …

4.25%4.25% National Front …..16.9%National Front …..16.9% Communist Party … 3.4%Communist Party … 3.4% National Republican Movement …. 2.3%National Republican Movement …. 2.3% Party of the Workers….5%Party of the Workers….5% TOTAL……………………………………35+%TOTAL……………………………………35+%

Protest Against What?Protest Against What?

1. Immigration and Unemployment.1. Immigration and Unemployment. 2. Globalization & Urban Insecurity.2. Globalization & Urban Insecurity. 3. Parliamentary Democracy.3. Parliamentary Democracy. 4. Social Injustice & lack of opportunity.4. Social Injustice & lack of opportunity. 5. Loss of an intimate rural society & 5. Loss of an intimate rural society &

decline of rural values. [Hunting, Fishing decline of rural values. [Hunting, Fishing = +5%], loss of social simplicity.= +5%], loss of social simplicity.

Round 1: PresidentialRound 1: Presidential

Electorate = 44.5 millionElectorate = 44.5 million Turnout = 85%Turnout = 85% 1. Nicholas Sarkozy, 30.8%, 11.5 m 1. Nicholas Sarkozy, 30.8%, 11.5 m 2. Segolene Royal, 25.3%, 9.5 m 2. Segolene Royal, 25.3%, 9.5 m 3. Francois Bayreu, 18.6%, 6.8m3. Francois Bayreu, 18.6%, 6.8m 4. Jean-Marie Le Pen, 10.4%, 3.8m4. Jean-Marie Le Pen, 10.4%, 3.8m

Other CandidatesOther Candidates

Olivier Besancenot, Revolutionary Olivier Besancenot, Revolutionary Communist League; 4.1%, 1.5mCommunist League; 4.1%, 1.5m

Philippe de Villiers, Movement for Philippe de Villiers, Movement for France (far right); 2.2%, 819,000France (far right); 2.2%, 819,000

Arlette Laguiller, Workers’ Struggle; Arlette Laguiller, Workers’ Struggle; 1.33%, 488,0001.33%, 488,000

Marie-George Buffet, Communist; Marie-George Buffet, Communist; 1.93%, 707,0001.93%, 707,000

Other Candidates (2)Other Candidates (2)

Frederic Nihous, Hunting Fishing, Frederic Nihous, Hunting Fishing, Nature, Tradition; 1.15%, 421,000Nature, Tradition; 1.15%, 421,000

Dominique Voynet, Greens; 1.57%, Dominique Voynet, Greens; 1.57%, 577,000577,000

Jose Bove, Anti-Globalization; 1.32%, Jose Bove, Anti-Globalization; 1.32%, 483,000483,000

Gerard Schivardi, Workers’ Party; Gerard Schivardi, Workers’ Party; 0.34%, 124,0000.34%, 124,000

Round 2 ResultRound 2 Result

Turnout = 85%, 36M votes cast.Turnout = 85%, 36M votes cast.

Nicholas Sarkozy, 53 %, 19M votesNicholas Sarkozy, 53 %, 19M votes Segolene Royal, 47%, 16,800,000 Segolene Royal, 47%, 16,800,000

votesvotes

Implications: The “social model” vs. Implications: The “social model” vs. the “Anglo-Saxon model.”the “Anglo-Saxon model.”

Parliamentary Election: Parliamentary Election: Round 1 Round 1

UMP: 10,300,000, UMP: 10,300,000, 39.5%; +6.25%; 99 39.5%; +6.25%; 99 seats;seats;

PS: 6,436,000; PS: 6,436,000; 24.75%; +.062; 1 24.75%; +.062; 1 seat;seat;

MoDem (formerly MoDem (formerly UDF); 1,981,000; UDF); 1,981,000; 7.6%; +2.75%; 07.6%; +2.75%; 0

FN: 1,116,000; FN: 1,116,000; 4.3%; -7.5%; 0;4.3%; -7.5%; 0;

PCF: 1,116,000; PCF: 1,116,000; 4.3%; -0.5%;4.3%; -0.5%;

LO + LCR; 890,000; LO + LCR; 890,000; 3.4%; +0.6%; 3.4%; +0.6%;

Greens: 846,000; Greens: 846,000; 3.25%; -1.25%; 3.25%; -1.25%;

Parliamentary Election, Parliamentary Election, Round 2Round 2

UPM, 314 seats, loss of 45.UPM, 314 seats, loss of 45. Socialists, 185 seats, gain of 36.Socialists, 185 seats, gain of 36. MoDem UDF), 3 seats, loss of 29.MoDem UDF), 3 seats, loss of 29. Communist Party, 15 seats, loss of Communist Party, 15 seats, loss of

6.6. National Front, 0 seats.National Front, 0 seats. Greens, 4 seats.Greens, 4 seats. Left Radicals, 7 seats.Left Radicals, 7 seats.

  Sièges

  Communiste 15

  Divers gauche 15

  Socialiste 185

  Radical de gauche 7

  Les Verts 4

  Régionaliste 1

  Ecologiste 0

  Divers 1

  UDF- Mouvement Démocrate 3

  Majorité présidentielle 22

  Union pour un Mouvement Populaire 314

  Divers droite 9

  Mouvement pour la France 1

  Front national   0