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FRESHFRUITTRENDANALYSIS,MARKETSHARE
SEASONALANALYSIS,VALUEANDVOLUME
PreparedbyWayneProwseFreshIntelligenceConsulting5thSeptember2018
1
Population=Consumers=DemandNosurprises–88%liveinNorthernHemisphere(44%northofTropicofCancer)
3%
53%
44%
Population=Consumers=DemandNosurprises–88%liveinNorthernHemisphereand82%liveinEasternHemisphere(Eurasia)
3%
53%
44%
82% 18%
Population=Consumers=DemandNosurprises–88%liveinNorthernHemisphereand82%liveinEasternHemisphere(Eurasia)50%livewithin5hoursflyingtimefromHongKong
3%
53%
44%
82% 18%
50%
GDPpercapita=PurchasingPowerNorthoftropics-NorthAmericaandEuropemostlucrative,China(EastCoast)isthefastestdeveloping
GDPpercapita=PurchasingPowerChinaEastCoasthasthehighestlevelofGDPinChina–averageUS$16,000(allofChinaisUS$9,300)
7 provinces along east coast have highest GDP in China
Endpointretailischangingfromtraditionalwetmarketstomoderncashlessonlinehybrid
GlobalTradeinFreshFruit2001-2017
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MillionTo
nnes
Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
Other
Papaya
Rasberries&Blackberries
Blueberries
Cherries
Durians
Strawberries
Grapefruit
Kiwifruit
Mangoes
Avocados
Caneloupemelons
Pears
PeachesNectarines&Plums
DragonFruit,Longansandtropical
Watermelons
Lemons&Limes
Pineapples
Mandarins
Grapes
Oranges
Apples
Bananas
GlobalVolume 80.11 milliontonnes
1yrgrowth 3.6%5yrtrend 2.3% p.a.
10yrtrend 3.6% p.a+ 3.6% per year
GlobalFreshFruitRegionalShareofImportsEurope is the largest import trade. Asia has the highest consistent growth rate
Caution – all areas have intra-regional trade include which can cause double counting, for example: • Netherlands imports from Southern Hemisphere and re exports to other Europe • Hong Kong imports from outside Asia and re exports to China • US imports from Mexico and re exports to Canada
Europe44%
Asia15%
NorthAmerica15%
MENA7%
Russia7%
SouthAmerica2%
Australia&NewZealand
0.3%
Other10%
2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrendMilTonnes % % % %
Europe 35.50 44.3% 5% 2.7% 2.2%
Asia 11.77 14.7% 9% 4.8% 6.3%NorthAmerica 12.29 15.3% 9% -2.1% 3.8%MENA 5.25 6.5% -12% -1.5% 2.5%Russia 5.36 6.7% 15% -2.5% 0.6%SouthAmerica 1.68 2.1% 5% 0.0% 3.3%Australia&NewZealand 0.27 0.3% 0% 0.2% 1.0%Other 8.00 10.0% -10% 16% 8.2%
allFreshFruit2017 80.11 100.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.3%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
TropicalFreshFruitProduction&Distribution
Temperate Fruit (northern season)
Temperate Fruit (southern season)
Tropical Fruit (year round)
Almostalltropicalfruitfornorthernmarketsmustbeshippedfromproducersinthetropics
GlobalTropical&SubTropicalFruitImportTrends
• At 23 million tonnes, bananas are the leading fresh fruit product traded • Dragon fruit, longans and other tropical fruits are mostly ASEAN to
China and growth driven from Vietnam and Thailand to China • Avocados are largest consistent growth product mostly from Mexico
2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrendMilTonnes % % % %
Bananas 23.33 57.72% 6.9% 2.9% 3.6%Melons 5.43 13.42% -8.3% 1.1% 3.1%Pineapples 3.45 8.53% -2.8% 2.6% 4.0%DragonFruit,Longansandtropical 3.12 7.72% 27.9% 6.0% 8.4%Avocados 2.14 5.29% 12.8% 10.5% 12.7%Mangoes 1.86 4.61% 6.2% 3.0% 7.7%Durians 0.75 1.84% 11.2% 2.2% 8.6%Papaya 0.36 0.88% -0.2% 5.1% 4.3%
TropicalFruit 40.43 100.00% 5.3% 3.1% 4.5%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
1.1M t
BananaDistribution
350k t
800k t
600k t
400k t
110k t
2M t 6M t
1M t 7.5M t
GlobalTemperateFruitImportsTrends
2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrendMilTonnes % % % %
Apples 8.87 21.99% -2.3% 0.5% 2.3%Oranges 7.09 17.58% -0.4% 0.4% 2.0%Grapes 4.59 11.38% 7.4% 2.4% 2.2%Mandarins 4.65 11.54% -1.0% 0.8% 0.9%PeachesNectarines&Plums 3.36 8.34% 9.4% 2.7% 3.8%Lemons&Limes 3.34 8.28% 2.7% 5.1% 5.9%Pears 2.76 6.85% 5.3% 2.0% 1.8%Kiwifruit 1.54 3.83% -6.7% 1.5% 2.8%Grapefruit 1.13 2.79% 8.5% -1.3% 0.4%Strawberries 0.95 2.35% 5.5% 1.1% 4.7%Cherries 0.60 1.48% 8.2% 6.0% 7.5%Blueberries 0.46 1.14% 10.0% 7.3% 13.4%Rasberries&Blackberries 0.36 0.90% 33.5% 10.5% 11.7%Other 0.62 1.54%
TemperateFruit2017 40.31 100.00% 2.1% 1.7% 3.0%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
TemperateFreshFruitProduction&Distribution
Temperate Fruit (southern season)
Temperate Fruit (northern season)
Tropical Fruit (year round)
Marketsthatwantyearroundtemperatefruitmustimportcounter-seasonfruit.
7.2%peryeargrowthofFreshFruitimportsbyAsia
17
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tonn
esperyear
Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
AsianMarketImportGrowth2001-2017
India
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
SouthKorea
VietNam
Japan
HongKong(net)
China
China Japan
AsianFreshFruitCountryShareofImports• China is the largest import trade 3.86 million tonnes imported. • India has the highest consistent growth rate off a small base 440,000 tonnes imported • Japan was the largest importer in Asia though has not increased as others have
2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrendMilTonnes % % % %
China 3.86 32.8% 11% 7.1% 12.2%HongKong(net) 0.66 5.6% -2% -4.9% 2.4%Japan 1.62 13.8% 1% -0.6% -0.8%VietNam 1.59 13.5% 41% 16.2% 11.8%SouthKorea 0.82 7.0% 9% 4.0% 5.4%Indonesia 0.62 5.2% 37% 5.6% 3.2%Malaysia 0.47 4.0% -11% -1.3% 1.2%Singapore 0.47 4.0% 3% 2% 3.7%Thailand 0.57 4.8% -14% 2% 9.0%Taiwan 0.34 2.8% -5% 3% 1.1%Philippines 0.33 2.8% 1% 10% 6.8%India 0.44 3.7% 17% 11% 19.9%
allFreshFruit2017 11.77 100.0% 9.1% 4.8% 6.3%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tonn
esperyear
Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
AsianMarketImportGrowth2001-2017
India
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
SouthKorea
VietNam
Japan
HongKong(net)
China
Asia’ssourcesoffreshfruitsupply
Asia62%
SouthernHemisphere
18%
USA10%
Europe1%
Other9%
ChinaImportgrowthofFreshFruitbyproduct2001-2017
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tonnesperyear
Source:ChinaCustomsviaITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
ChinaImportGrowth2001-2017
Other
Pears
Blueberries
Avocados
Stonefruit
Apples
Cherries
Kiwifruit
Grapes
Citrus
Pineapples
Watermelons
Durians
Longan
DragonFruit
Bananas
ChinaImportsofTropicalFruit2001-2017
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tonnesperyear
Source:ChinaCustomsviaITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
ChinaTropicalFruitImportGrowth2001-2017
Pineapples
Watermelons
Durians
Longan
DragonFruit
Bananas
2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrend000tonnes % % % %
Bananas 1,039 26.9% 17.1% 15.1% 12.4%DragonFruit 533 13.8% 1.3% -0.2% 18.2%Longan 529 13.7% 48.0% 7.7% 11.6%Durians 224 5.8% -23.3% -7.0% 5.5%Watermelons 188 4.9% -7.8% -5.5% -1.8%Pineapples 146 3.8% 43.2% 29.9% 33.5%Mangoes&mangosteens 77 2.0% 5.7% -11.1% 2.4%Tropical 2,737 71.0% 12.1% 4.8% 10.5%
ChinaImportsofTemperateFruit2001-2017
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tonnesperyear
Source:ChinaCustomsviaITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
ChinaImportGrowthofTemperateFruit2001-2017
Pears
Blueberries
Avocados
Stonefruit
Apples
Cherries
Kiwifruit
Grapes
Citrus
2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrend000tonnes % % % %
Citrus 467 12.1% 57.9% 29.4% 21.7%Grapes 234 6.1% -7.3% 4.8% 18.3%Kiwifruit 113 2.9% -10.7% 18.5% 22.0%Cherries 182 4.7% 66.5% 37.1% 56.0%Apples 69 1.8% 2.6% 12.2% 5.5%Stonefruit 49 1.3% 9.6% 8.3% 21.7%Avocados 32 0.8% 27.9% 84.6% 171.5%Blueberries 12 0.3% 39.9% 38.3% 37.7%Pears 8 0.2% -7.9% 19.4% 111.3%Temperate 1,165 30.2% 24.3% 19.5% 21.3%
Includes avocados
China’simportflowsof3.86mtonnesoffreshfruit
122k t +50% 186k t
+47% 254k t -15%
76k t +7%
166k t -5%
China Imports 3.86 m t +10%
2.6 mt +9%
104k t -5%
114k t +200%
45k t +36% 152k t
+7%
In2017Chinaimported3.86milliontonnesoffreshfruit,+10%comparedtopreviousyear
SeasonalAnalysis–ImportsbyChina(fromoutsideAsia)• Seasonal supply – Chilean cherries in January, grapes from February to May • Peruvian grapes from January top April • Australian grapes from March to June, then citrus from June to October • South African citrus from June to October • New Zealand kiwifruit from March to September • European kiwifruit from November to March, and Spanish citrus February to May • US citrus January to May, then cherries June to August. • Egypt citrus March to June • Ecuador bananas most of the year
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
Tonn
esperm
onth
Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis
China-importsbymonthbysupplier(externalAsia)
Egypt
Ecuador
NewZealand
Australia
SouthAfrica
Peru
Chile
Europe
UnitedStates
South Africa
US
Chile
Australia
Egypt
Europe
FreshProduceTrendSummary• Modernconsumersareseekingfreshproduceatanytime
• RetailersneedtosourceproductsgloballyifnotavailablewithinAsia• Retailersaremodernizingroutestomarket
• SouthernHemispheresuppliersareaddressingtheneedforcounter-seasonaltemperateproducethoughareneedingto:• Overcomedistancescoveringhalftheworldtogetfreshproductstothemarket
• Addressandmeetmarketaccessconditionsinmultiplemarkets• Beexportfocused..producingmuchmorethantheirdomesticmarketsneed.
ThankYou