FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

11.09.18

Day Lightning Flooding Damaging

Wind/Hail Tornado Freeze Fog Wildfire Rip Currents

Fri W Panhandle

E Panhandle

Elsewhere

E Panhandle

& East Coast

Elsewhere

Sat South Florida

East Coast

Panhandle, West

Coast

Sun South Florida

East Coast

Panhandle, West

Coast

Mon Panhandle

Peninsula Panhandle

East Coast

Panhandle

West Coast

Tue Panhandle

Peninsula Panhandle

Inland West

Panhandle

(Night)

East Coast

West Coast

Panhandle

Forecast Surface Weather Maps for Friday (left), Saturday (middle), Sunday (middle), and Monday (right)

Forecast High Temperatures for Saturday Cumulative Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday

Friday, November 9, 2018 5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

11.09.18

…First Cold Front Brings Showers And Storms Friday and Cooler Weather This Weekend…Second Cold Front Brings Heavy Rainfall Threat Early Next Week…Arctic Air

Mass Moves In Middle of Next Week…Elevated Rip Current Risk For Atlantic Beaches…Several Rivers In Action Stage, May Rise Later Next Week…

Two cold fronts will impact the state over the next five days. The first of which will move through North Florida later tonight. Ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the best chances over the western Panhandle. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible in the stronger storms. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which will be the warmest temperatures we see over the next five days. As the cold front passes, winds will increase and temperatures will fall. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s in the Panhandle and Big Bend with upper 50s and lower 60s in Northeast Florida. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will likely fade during the evening.

Saturday will be a rather chilly day across North Florida as temperatures struggle to warm up. Highs will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Panhandle and Big Bend and middle 60s to lower 70s in Northeast Florida. Lows Saturday night will be in the middle to upper 40s for most except in the lower 50s in Northeast Florida. Temperatures will begin recovering on Sunday with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday night will begin our next weather transition as the cold front that will have passed through tonight begins its retreat northward and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rain chances begin increasing Sunday night to 30-40% across most of North Florida, though rain chances of 50-70% are expected near the Perdido River. Monday will be the wettest day for North Florida. Rain chances range from 80-100% over the Panhandle to 50-70% from the Big Bend to Northeast Florida. Widespread severe weather is currently not expected from this system as the warmest air is forecast to remain to the south over the Gulf of Mexico. If the warm air is able to push inland, the threat of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could increase. Regardless, locally heavy rainfall is expected across much of the Panhandle, which could lead to some flooding of urban and low-lying areas. The rain continues into Tuesday as the cold front slides through. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to middle 70s, but much cooler air spills into the western Panhandle as highs there only reach the upper 50s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night will feature the coldest air of the season so far. Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 30s in the western Panhandle with upper 30s to middle 40s elsewhere in North Florida. The winds will play two roles in our forecast. First, the winds will create a wind chill that could be as low as the upper 20s near the Florida-Alabama border. On the other hand, the winds may stay high enough to prevent frost formation in areas where lows fall into the middle 30s.

North Florida:

Monday’s Rain

Chances

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

11.09.18

Central & South Florida: Central and South Florida will largely escape the volatile changes in the weather through Sunday. Only isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday with slightly better chances for thunderstorms on Sunday. Highs on Friday will be in the middle to upper 80s. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Friday night’s lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By Saturday night as the cold front stalls near Lake Okeechobee, lows will range from the 50s north of I-4, 60s between I-4 and Lake Okeechobee, and lower to middle 70s south of the Lake and in the Keys. On Monday, rain chances increase as more moisture surges behind the warm front. Rain chances of 30-50% are expected mainly east of the Florida Turnpike on Monday, then around 50% for the whole Peninsula on

Tuesday. Severe weather or heavy rainfall is not expected. Temperatures both days will be in the lower to middle 80s. Lows Monday night will be in the lower to middle 70s. However, by Tuesday night, the cold front will surge southward. The result will be lows in the 50s north of I-4, 60s between I-4 and Lake Okeechobee, and 70s south of the Lake and in the Keys. Tropics: No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days. Strong wind shear is influencing much of the Atlantic basin preventing development. For more information regarding the tropics, please consult the National Hurricane Center. Hydrology & Flooding: All creeks and rivers statewide are currently below flood stage. Several Panhandle rivers are swollen from rounds of rain over the last week. The Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, the Shoal River near Crestview, the Bruce Creek at Redbay, the Wrights Creek near Bonifay, the

High

Temperatures

Tuesday

Low

Temperatures

Tuesday Night

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

11.09.18

Econfina Creek at State Road 20 and at Bennett, and the Chipola River near Altha are all in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River near Ebro is forecast to rise into action stage early next week. While no riverine flooding is expected through Sunday, heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday could result in river rises, possibly into minor flood stage next week. For more information on specific river stages, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Heavy rainfall in possible in the Panhandle early next week. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3” are expected, but localized areas may receive up to 4-5”. This could result in some flooding of poor drainage, urban, or low-lying areas. Rainfall totals over the Peninsula are generally expected to be less than 1” through the next 5 days.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.59 feet, which is 1.44 feet below normal for this time of year. This is only 0.03 feet lower than the level one week ago. With little in the way of rain forecast through the next several days (totals generally 0.25” or less), the lake level is expected to continue a slow decline.

Drought & Fire Weather: Recent rainfall has helped reduce the number of locally dry areas. However, abnormally dry conditions continue across parts of the Peninsula, and the lack of rainfall will continue across primarily South Florida. In addition, fallen and dead brush/timber in the wake of Hurricane Michael is leaving the Panhandle vulnerable to fires. Breezy winds and dry air this weekend in North Florida could lead to favorable conditions for wildfire growth. However, most fuels are wet, and the wildfire risk remains low at this time. Lightning may also spark new fires. County Burn Bans are in effect for 4 counties in the Panhandle in the wake of Michael and 5 counties in the Peninsula that are in effect year round.

Rip Currents & Marine Hazards:

Winds along the Panhandle and West Coast will remain offshore and waves will generally be 2’ or less through the weekend, which will result in a low risk of rip currents, though the eastern Panhandle will see a moderate risk of rip currents on Friday. By Monday, winds will become onshore in the Panhandle and waves build to 2-4’, which will result in a moderate to high risk of

Drought Monitor

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

11.09.18

rip currents. Tuesday, the winds shift to offshore along the Panhandle, reducing the rip current risk to low. However, waves will build along the West Coast and winds will be parallel to shore or onshore on Tuesday. This will result in at least a moderate risk of rip currents.

Winds through the next five days will remain onshore or nearly onshore for the East Coast beaches. Waves will be around 2-3’ on Friday, which will result in a moderate risk of rip currents. Waves build to 3-6’ on Saturday through Tuesday, which will result in a high rip current risk each day.

Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard and follow beach warning flags. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! For the latest rip current forecast, please visit https://www.weather.gov/beach.

Red tide concentrations continue to remain high along the West Coast. A Beach Hazards Statement for possible respiratory irritation is in effect until at least Tuesday for Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties. Conditions have improved along the Atlantic with just some sporadic areas of very low concentrations in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties. Most locations in the Panhandle saw an uptick in concentrations this week with moderate levels being reported from Santa Rosa to Gulf County. Little change in concentrations is expected overall, but offshore winds in the Panhandle this weekend may temporarily reduce near-shore concentrations. Click here for a daily status map of Red Tide observations.

Florida NCAA Division 1 Football Forecast

*All times are in ET. Updates provided on Friday.*

UCF#11 vs. Navy – 12:00 PM Saturday in Orlando, FL

Mostly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures will be in the lower

80s with a north-northeast wind at 5-10 mph.

UF#19 vs. SC – 12:00 PM Saturday in Gainesville, FL

Mostly cloudy skies with no rain expected. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s. Winds will be out of

the north at 5-10 mph.

FAMU vs. SC State – 4:00 PM Saturday in Tallahassee, FL

Partly cloudy skies with no rain expected. Temperatures will be in the lower 60s to start, then falling into

the middle 50s by the end of the game. with a light north wind at 5-10 mph.

FAU vs. Western KY – 5:00 PM Saturday in Boca Raton, FL

Red Tide

Concentrations

As of 11/9

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis

11.09.18

Partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures will be in the

lower 80s and fall into the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15 mph.

USF @ Cincinnati#25 – 7:00 PM Saturday in Cincinnati, OH

Clear skies with no chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be in the lower 30s to start, falling into the

upper 20s by the end of the game.

UM @ Georgia Tech – 7:00 PM Saturday in Atlanta, GA

Clear skies with no chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the lower 40s with a light north wind at 5-10

mph.

FIU vs. UTSA – 7:00 PM Saturday in University Park, FL

Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures will be in the

lower 80s and fall into the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the east at less than 5 mph.

FSU @ Notre Dame#3 – 7:30 PM Saturday in Notre Dame, IN

Mostly cloudy skies with no chance of precipitation. Temperatures in the middle 20s with light southwest

winds at 5-10 mph. Wind chills will be in the upper 10s.

B-CU – Played Thursday

NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach

Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West

Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Stay safe and have a good weekend! Cameron Young, Assistant State Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org