From an Extractive to a Beneficiation Economy: The Vital Role of Water

Parliamentary Round Table DiscussionCape Town

30 March 2010

© AR Turton, 2010.

Prof. Anthony TurtonDirector: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd

Vice President: International Water Resource Associationbronwyn@speakersinc.co.za

www.anthonyturton.com

World Water Scarcity 1990

Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it is related to environmental factors

World Water Scarcity 2020

Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass into extreme stress because of population growth

World Water Scarcity 2050

Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as extremely stressed systems

World Water Scarcity 2070

At this stage the most economically active portion of Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa

The Externalization of Costs Model

Value

Time

Dev Cost

Revenue

V1

V2

Profit

Mine Closure

T1

Remediation Cost

Magnitude at Closure

T2

Externalized Costs

© Adler et al., 2007

Balance Sheet Items

Off-Balance Sheet Items

Our national economic growth has been driven by an externalized cost model and this

can no longer be sustained

Changing Economic Paradigms

Value

Time

Externalized Cost Economic Model:

Apartheid State

New Economic Model:

Developmental State?

Human CapacityEnergy CapacityWater Capacity

We need considerable Thought Leadership and the

support of the Private Sector, Government and the Trades

Union to make this transition.

Opening the debate on the possible role of Social

Entrepreneurship – a fusion of capitalism (with a a small “c”) and

socialism (with a small “s”).

Fact # 2: Acid rain causes pollen tube deformation in maize by mobilizing aluminium and thus threatens our

national food security. (Google “aluminium toxicity maize” for more info).

Fact # 1: Our coal deposits coincide with our best agricultural land and this means our energy addiction to coal is destroying our

national agricultural capacity because of AMD.

N

500 km

Maputo

Orange-Senqu

Limpopo

Incomati

Key

Episodic river

Shared river basin

© P.J. Ashton

Quality Problems in Shared Basins

G

RG

G

G = Groundwater contamination - fluoride and/or nitrate

T

T = Acidic atmospheric deposits

AU

E

EAA

A

MU

AAMU

ASM

U MAU

A E S M R UA

A

UE

EU

MA

U

A

E

U = Urban / industrial effluent – pathogens + nutrients + organics

M = Metals (mining)

R = Radioactivity

S = Salinity

E = Excessive sediment

A = Agricultural chemicals

Surface strata

Dolomites

Ore-bearing strata

Eastern Basin

Central Basin

Western BasinDyke Dyke

Safety drive

Workings

Vertical Shaft

Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng

The volume of the mine void under the Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of

Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss – with new thinking and political will this can become a major

source of New Water

Reverse Osmosis is a robust technology that has been proven in eMalahleni

Having this as strategic storage enables new Dam Operating Rules to be applied with national

benefits

Years

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

20

40

80

60

Wat

er D

eman

d (1

09 m3 y

r1 )(bi

llion

m³/

yr¹)

Highest water use estimate

Lowest water use estimate

Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology)

Total surface resources (existing technology)

Q x F = Y Q = volume of water available

at national level at a high assurance of

supply

Y = volume of water needed at national level at a high assurance

of supply to sustain the economy

F = Flux value of water

Flux value of water = 1.7

38 x 1.7 = 64.6

Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19)

38 x .8 = 30.4

This is our problem

Water in rivers and dams known as the Resource

Reticulated potable water

needed to sustain socioeconomic

activities

Waste water draining the

economy known as the Return Flow

Rainfall (natural) and Return Flow (engineered) component of the Resource

Hydrological & Ecological System

Strategic Storage System

Municipal Potable Water System

Municipal Waste Water System

National Government Jurisdiction Local Government Jurisdiction

As water demand exceeds the natural supply of rainfall, the majority of the national resource will start to become dependent on urban runoff – hence the need to prioritize return flow management (sewage, AMD,

industrial effluent).

Recycling will become the hydrological foundation of our national economy and

future growth will depend on this.

Water is a Flux

Thank You

Water is a Flux

This is the solution for

Economic Growth