From De-Urbanization to Selective Re-Urbanization: The Transformation of American Shrinking Cities in the 21st

CenturyALAN MALLACH, SENIOR FELLOW

CENTER FOR COMMUNITY PROGRESS

WASHINGTON, DC

HistoryThe story of American older industrial cities during most of the second half of the 20th century was one of almost unremitting decline.

0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

11.1

1950 1990

Population change 1950-1990 (1950 = 1)

New York Chicago Philadelphia

Detroit Baltimore Cleveland

St. Louis Washington Boston

History

Decline was fueled by Suburbanization Regional migration De-industrialization

The 20th century narrative was one of urban decline

“The cities are

finished”

“we should try to help people….as quickly as

possible facilitate transition to new locations and jobs.”

“Ladies and gentlemen, the Bronx is

burning”

The narrative began to shift near the end of the century

2000

1998

Conditions have changed

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1990 2000 2017

New York Chicago Philadelphia

Detroit Baltimore Cleveland

St. Louis Washington Boston

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1950 1990

Population change 1950-1990 (1950 = 1)

New York Chicago Philadelphia

Detroit Baltimore Cleveland

St. Louis Washington Boston

Population change 1990-2017 (1990 = 1)

Change is visible in American cities

Many cities are outpacing national trends

11.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9

2

DC BOS

BALT

PITT ST

LBU

FCL

E US

CPI 1

999-

2015

Growth in median income 1999 to 2015

0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%

10.00%Job growth 2008 to 2014

A hierarchy of urban change has replaced a pattern of consistent declineBoomtowns Strong but partial

revivalLimited revival Little revival

BostonWashington DCNew York City

ChicagoBaltimorePhiladelphiaPittsburghSt Louis

Cincinnati DetroitBuffaloMilwaukee

FlintYoungstownGaryDaytonCamden NJ

This shift was driven by the emergence of a new urban economy

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

Health care &education

Manufacturing

JOBS BY SECTOR 1950-2015

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Baltimore Cleveland Pittsburgh

Manufacturing1967

Manufacturing2015

Eds and Meds 2015

…and a rising new demographic: a young, well-educated population – the “young grads”

Share of population over 18 who are 25 to 34 with BA or higher degree

2000

2016

…creating a growing consumption sector

These changes are transforming cities

Baltimore

St Louis

Cleveland

Or are they?

Baltimore

Detroit

St Louis

Detroit

The revival is real butso are the poverty andinequality

They are inextricably linked

Inequality is….

SpatialEconomicRacial

Baltimore’s White “L”

Median salesprice >$200K

60%+ Non-Latino White Young BA+ clusters

and its “Black Butterfly”

Poverty >20%

Percentage African-American

Housing vacancies >20%

The population of young university graduates is spreading but not everywhere

Baltimore 200025,775 25-34 BA+ Baltimore 2015

48,533 25-34 BA+

Wealth is concentrating in fewer places

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

2006 2015

Share of total citywide salesby dollar valuein Baltimore inareas wheremedian >$200K

Cities are adding jobs, but city residents aren’t filling them

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

JOBS

IN C

ITY

JOBH

OLD

ERS

LIVI

NG

AN

DW

ORK

ING

IN C

ITY

JOBH

OLD

ERS

LIVI

NG

INCI

TY

Change in number of jobs and jobholders inBaltimore 2002-2015

050000

100000150000200000250000300000

Who works in Pittsburgh?

Vacancy and abandonment are spreading

1990

2010

2000

Baltimore 1990-2010

Racial disparities are growing

Change in median household income 2000 to 2017

CPI INCREASE 2000 TO 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Baltimore St Louis Pittsburgh Milwaukee Philadelphia Cleveland Detroit

WHITE BLACK

Areas of concentrated and segregated poverty are spreading

2000

2015Areas with >30% poverty rate and >50% black population

Detroit 2000-2015

Areas of concentrated and segregated poverty

in 2000 and 2016

Declining areas: areas of concentrated and

segregated poverty in 2016 but not in 2000

TOLEDO 2000 TO 2016

More neighborhoods are declining than gentrifying

GentrificationNeighborhood decline

Indianapolis

Neighborhood change in Chicago 2000 to 2017

Only seven out of 229 largely (>60%) black low or middle-income neighborhoods in Chicago trended upward from 2000 to 2017.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

to low income Remained thesame

To upper income

Middle Income Neighborhoods

<25% black >60% black

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

To very lowincome

Remained thesame

To middle orupper income

Low Income Neighborhoods

<25% black >60% black

What does this mean? American cities are doing better than at any

time in the last 60+ years.Yet more people cannot make a living wage and

are living in poverty, and poor housing and neighborhood conditions.

American cities are creating jobs and drawing billions of dollars in investment.Yet more neighborhoods, particularly African-

American neighborhoods, are losing ground.

Closing observations

The past, present andfuture of America’s shrinking (or ex-shrinking) cities

Urban shrinkage in the American context Urban shrinkage took place at a time when the

United States population was steadily growing. Shrinkage reflected fundamental regional and

economic changes in the United States Shrinkage constituted a de-urbanization of the

American society and economy. Shrinking cities, in the American context, also

concentrated social and economic disadvantage and disinvestment.

The era of de-urbanization is over

The United States is now in a period of uneven or selective re-urbanization

The social and economic legacies of de-urbanization remain

The American urban hierarchy

LOCATION

SIZE (critical mass)SMALL LARGE

COASTAL

INLAND

A hierarchy of urban change has replaced a pattern of consistent declineBoomtowns Strong but partial

revivalLimited revival Little revival

BostonWashington DCNew York City

ChicagoBaltimorePhiladelphiaPittsburghSt Louis

Cincinnati DetroitBuffaloMilwaukee

FlintYoungstownGaryDaytonCamden NJ

SMALL CITIES

Three central challenges

The challenge of sustaining and extending revival

The challenge of building equity and rebuilding opportunity

The challenge of finding a future for small cities

Thank you.