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AlpeshPatel.com
From Swing Trading & Momentum Trading
AlpeshPatel.com
Making Money By Not Losing Money
“The Trouble With A Loss Is Not Only The Loss Of Money,
But Also The Loss of Ego.”
Pat Arbor, Chairman Chicago Board of Trade – world’s largest derivatives exchange
How find the initial fixed maximum stop loss?
Method Average Range
How find the initial fixed maximum stop loss?
Method: Average True Range (ATR)
SL= 2 x ATR. Fixed At Entry
Because it is not ‘noise’ if 2 x ATR
How find ATR? Use ATR indicator
2 x ATR = 2% of Total Risk Capital 3 x ATR = 2% of Total Risk Capital
ATR = 25 pips 2 x ATR = 50 pips 3 x ATR = 75 pips
ATR = 25 pips 2 x ATR = 50 pips 3 x ATR = 75 pips Assume Total Risk Capital = 100k 2% of 100k = 2k = 2xATR (50 pips) = 40gbp per pip
ATR = 25 pips 2 x ATR = 50 pips 3 x ATR = 75 pips Assume Total Risk Capital = 100k 2% of 100k = 2k = 2xATR (50 pips) = 40gbp per pip 2% of 100k = 2k = 3xATR (75 pips) = 27gbp per pip
ATR = 25 pips 2 x ATR = 50 pips 3 x ATR = 75 pips Assume Total Risk Capital = 100k 2% of 100k = 2k = 2xATR (50 pips) = 40gbp per pip 2% of 100k = 2k = 3xATR (75 pips) = 27gbp per pip
Note: Loss is 2% of Trading Capital Whether Falls to 2 ATR or 3 ATR So Why Not 3 x ATR? Because only 27gbp per pip NOT 40gbp per pip so make less profit eventually on winning trades
ATR Benefit Costs Overall
2 Total Loss Is Fixed - 2% Stopped Out More Often Of Potentially Profitable Trades Than If 3 ATR
Win/Loss Ratio Lower, But Profitability Higher on Wins
3 Total Loss Is Fixed – 2% Position Size Smaller Than if 2 x ATR So Make Less Profits On Profitable Trades
Win/Loss Ratio Higher, But Profits Lower on Wins
Trading Has No Staff Costs You Can Eventually Hire An Assistant
Outsource Accountancy
No Staff Training
No Employer’s Liability Insurance
No Statutory Paid Leave
No Employer NI
No Staff Pension Fund
No office
No shop
No commuting
Just need a computer and internet
No Marketing Costs No Blogs/Social Media
No Adverts
No Business Cards
No Google Adwords
No Shop
No Foreign Low-Cost Provider Of Your Product
No Price Competitor Next Door
No Supplier Price Hikes
Trading Platforms are Free
Trading Brokerages are Commission Free
FX and Indices and Commodities Never Change
Nothing To Make You Obsolete
If Your Broker Goes Bust – Your Account Is Underwritten By The Government
YOU Benefit From Government Bailout!
Always A Buyer On The Global Market
No Price Haggling, Discounts, Sales Offers
No Warehouse, Storage, Delivery
Instant Execution – Move On To Next Deal
No Commissions
No Middlemen Sales Fees
Dell Computer – fast, allows multiple monitors: www.dell.co.uk (as for multiple monitors) approx gbp450 Or add extra monitor (e.g. Samsung) to your existing PC
(gbp100) Fast Broadband
www.investingbetter.com
Analyse • Analyse Each
Chart Constantly
More Analysis
• Have To Analyse Each Time Frame Constantly
Interpret
• Interpret Each Chart In Keeping With The Rules
Wait For Exit and
Entry
• Computer Tells You Buy and Sell
Calculate Position
Size
• Based on Your Trading Risk Capital
Place Trade
• Click Of A Button
Once a security risen 10% into profit, if it falls back into loss, you are less likely to make money
Some make money who are right only 4 times out of 10 – they close a lot of losing trades quickly
Forex traders were particularly successful – trend following and reverting trade
Those who bet small amounts, but did more trades, were more profitable than those trading big size but infrequently
Long trades took longer to make money than short trades
Those who took a systematic approach, did better than an opportunistic approach. When they won, they won more than what they lost when they
lost. I.e. Average win bigger than average loss. Wins to losing trades were 55-45 to 60-40 i.e. almost equal.
There were no big losing trades among winners, unlike losers, who had some big losses
Losers and winners looked the same, except, losers had some big losing trades which wiped out their otherwise good record, it was not that losers just kept losing all the time.
Losers did this: Trades which turned out to be losses, were held longer than the average holding period for all trades they held.
Winners held on to losing trades for shorter time frames than their winning trades and the average holding period for all their trades.
90% of trades for winners made as much as they lost. The remaining 10% of trades is where they made the money. I.e. a few big winning trades. But only very few.
Based not on the amount of money they bet, but letting those wins continue i.e. those few winning trades were held for longer than average once they knew they had a winner. But winners did not let wins turn into losers by holding on.
Losers held on longer than average once they knew they had a loser.
Run Profits When you are right, you have to add to your position and let those profits run
How do you decide when to buy more in
the middle of a winning trade?
That is the ART of the
Trader
Run Your Profits: Add To Your Position Method 1
Run Your Profits: Add To Your Position Method ATR
Add same position again at every 0.5 ATR price interval move after initial entry.
Example: ATR = 1.20 First Position Entered at 28.30 Second Position Entered at 28.30 + (0.5x1.20) or 28.90 Third Position Entered at 28.90 + (0.5x1.20) or 29.50 Fourth Position Entered at 29.50 + (0.5x1.20) or 30.10 If you do add additional positions then raise the initial 2 x ATR stop-loss to be 2 x ATR
from latest entered position
ATR = 1.20
Entry Price Stop
First 28.30 25.90 i.e. 28.30 - (2 x 1.20)
Second 28.90 26.50 i.e. 25.90 + (0.5x1.20)
Third 29.50 27.10
Fourth 30.10 27.70
1. An Alpesh Patel trading book 2. Exclusive eBooks/eGuides on trading and investing 3. Exclusive subscriber-only webinars 4. Exclusive subscriber-only videos on trading and investing 5. Access to my personal Facebook page to keep in touch 6. Access to my Twitter account for social investing 7. My monthly newsletter and free access to my daily newsletters on stocks
and FX 8. My top picks reports during the year