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FSP Equities Management FSP Equities Management presentation to Bentley Capital AGM 16 November 2012 Presented by R i Ch l 16 November 2012 Ronni Chalmers AFSL 246 790 ABN 12 098 327 809 [email protected]

FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

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Page 1: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

FSP Equities ManagementFSP Equities Management presentation to Bentley Capital AGM

16 November 2012

Presented byR i Ch l

16 November 2012

Ronni ChalmersAFSL 246 790ABN 12 098 327 [email protected]

Page 2: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

IMF growth projectionsIMF growth projections

2011 2012 2013World output 3.8 3.3 3.6Advanced economies 1.6 1.3 1.5Emerging economies 6.2 5.3 5.6Euro Area 1.4 -0.4 0.2

Australia 2.1 3.5 2.8Australia 2.1 3.5 2.8China 9.2 7.8 8.2India 6.8 4.9 6.0US 1.7 2.2 2.1Japan -0.8 2.2 1.2Germany 3.1 0.9 0.9France 1.7 0.1 0.4UK 0 8 -0 4 1 1UK 0.8 -0.4 1.1

Source IMF

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Page 3: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

10 year Spanish government bond yields10 year Spanish government bond yields

Source: Bloomberg

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Source: Bloomberg

Page 4: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Dow Jones daily volatilityDays over 2% moves

Trading says in month

% of days

Mar-10 0 23 0Apr 10 0 22 0

Days over 2% moves

Trading days in month

% of days

2008 72 262 282009 45 255 18

Dow Jones daily volatility

Apr-10 0 22 0May-10 5 21 25Jun-10 5 22 23Jul-10 3 22 14

Aug-10 2 22 9Sep-10 1 22 5

2009 45 255 182010 20 259 82011 32 258 122012 0 21 0

Jan-08 3 23 13Feb-08 2 21 10 Sep 10 1 22 5

Oct-10 0 21 0Nov-10 0 22 0Dec-10 1 23 4Jan-11 0 20 0Feb-11 0 20 0

Feb 08 2 21 10Mar-08 4 21 19Apr-08 3 22 14

May-08 0 22 0Jun-08 2 21 10Jul-08 5 23 22

Mar-11 1 23 4Apr-11 0 21 0

May-11 0 22 0Jun-11 1 22 5Jul-11 0 21 0

A 11 9 23 39

Aug-08 3 21 14Sep-08 10 22 46Oct-08 16 23 70Nov-08 13 20 65Dec-08 11 23 48J 09 7 20 33 Aug-11 9 23 39

Sep-11 7 22 32Oct-11 6 21 29Nov-11 7 21 33Dec-11 1 21 5Jan-12 0 21 0

Jan-09 7 20 33Feb-09 5 20 25Mar-09 9 22 41Apr-09 6 21 29

May-09 5 21 25Jun 09 4 22 18 Jan-12 0 21 0

Feb-12 0 21 0Mar-12 0 22 0April-12 0 20 0May-12 0 22 0Jun-12 3 21 14

Jun-09 4 22 18Jul-09 4 23 17

Aug-09 0 21 0Sep-09 0 22 0Oct-09 3 22 14Nov-09 2 21 10

July-12 0 21 0Aug-12 0 23 0Sep-12 0 19 0Oct-12 0 21 0

Dec-09 0 20 0Jan-10 2 19 11Feb-10 1 20 5 4

Page 5: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

US equity volatility at 4 year lowsUS equity volatility at 4 year lows

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Page 6: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

ASX 200 daily volatilityDays over 2% moves

Trading days in month

% of days

Mar-10 0 23 0Apr 10 0 22 0

ASX 200 daily volatilityDays over 2% moves

Trading days in month

% of days

2008 68 262 262009 33 255 13 Apr-10 0 22 0

May-10 6 21 29Jun-10 2 22 9Jul-10 1 23 4

Aug-10 0 22 0Sep-10 1 22 5

2009 33 255 132010 13 260 52011 25 256 102012 1 21 5

Jan-08 8 23 35Feb-08 6 21 29 Sep 10 1 22 5

Oct-10 0 21 0Nov-10 0 22 0Dec-10 0 23 0Jan-11 0 19 0Feb-11 0 20 0

Feb 08 6 21 29Mar-08 8 21 38Apr-08 2 22 9

May-08 1 22 5Jun-08 2 21 10Jul-08 3 23 13

Mar-11 1 23 4Apr-11 0 21 0

May-11 0 22 0Jun-11 1 22 5Jul-11 0 21 0

A 11 7 23 30

Aug-08 3 21 14Sep-08 6 22 27Oct-08 13 23 57Nov-08 12 20 60Dec-08 4 23 17J 09 5 20 25 Aug-11 7 23 30

Sep-11 5 22 23Oct-11 6 21 29Nov-11 2 22 9Dec-11 3 20 15Jan-12 1 21 5

Jan-09 5 20 25Feb-09 1 20 5Mar-09 4 22 18Apr-09 6 20 30

May-09 3 21 14Jun-09 4 22 18 Jan 12 1 21 5

Feb-12 0 21 0Mar-12 0 22 0Apr-12 0 18 0

May-12 3 23 13Jun-12 0 20 0

Jun-09 4 22 18Jul-09 2 23 9

Aug-09 2 21 10Sep-09 1 22 5Oct-09 3 22 14Nov-09 3 21 14

Jul-12 1 22 5Aug-12 0 23 0Sep-12 0 20 0Oct-12 0 23 0

Dec-09 0 21 0Jan-10 1 19 5Feb-10 2 20 10 6

Page 7: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Performance as at 31 October 2012Performance as at 31 October 2012

• 2012 YTD +14.7%

• 1 year +6.6%

• 2 years 0 6% pa• 2 years -0.6% pa

• 4 years +8.8% pa

• 8 years +5.7% pa

• 10 years +9.7% pa

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Page 8: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Top 20 holdings as at 31 October 2012Top 20 holdings as at 31 October 2012

Name FSP weight 2013 yield %1 Westpac Banking Corporation 9.8% 6.92 ANZ Banking Group 8.8% 5.93 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 8.8% 5.94 BHP Billiton 7.2% 3.25 Transurban Group 3.3% 5.16 McMillan Shakespeare 3.1% 4.17 Oil Search 2.9% 0.58 Flight Centre 2.8% 3.69 DUET Group 2.3% 7.810 Suncorp Group 2.3% 6.211 Sydney Airport 2.3% 6.112 Commonwealth Property Office Fund 2.2% 5.813 APA Group 2.0% 6.814 Invocare 2.0% 2.115 Flexigroup 1.9% 3.416 Lend Lease 1.8% 5.317 IOOF Holdings 1.8% 7.018 Automotove Holdings Group 1.8% 6.219 BT Investment Management 1.7% 7.520 Henderson Group 1.7% 7.0p

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Page 9: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

How is the fund positioned today?How is the fund positioned today?

• 53% of the fund invested in attractive yielding (>5.5%) high quality industrial companies eg Westpac, CBA, ANZ, Henderson, BT Investment, IOOF, Sydney Airport and DUET

• Underweight resources

• Stocks in the portfolio have minimal European or US earnings• Stocks in the portfolio have minimal European or US earnings

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Page 10: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

ASX200 Industrials forward dividend yieldASX200 Industrials forward dividend yield

6 50

7.00

7.50

5.50

6.00

6.50

4.50

5.00

3.00

3.50

4.00

31-D

ec-9

431

-May

-95

31-O

ct-9

531

-Mar

-96

31-A

ug-9

631

-Jan

-97

30-J

un-9

730

-Nov

-97

30-A

pr-9

830

-Sep

-98

28-F

eb-9

931

-Jul

-99

31-D

ec-9

931

-May

-00

31-O

ct-0

031

-Mar

-01

31-A

ug-0

131

-Jan

-02

30-J

un-0

230

-Nov

-02

30-A

pr-0

330

-Sep

-03

29-F

eb-0

431

-Jul

-04

31-D

ec-0

431

-May

-05

31-O

ct-0

531

-Mar

-06

31-A

ug-0

631

-Jan

-07

30-J

un-0

730

-Nov

-07

30-A

pr-0

830

-Sep

-08

28-F

eb-0

931

-Jul

-09

31-D

ec-0

931

-May

-10

31-O

ct-1

031

-Mar

-11

31-A

ug-1

131

-Jan

-12

30-J

un-1

230

-Nov

-12

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Page 11: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

CBA forward dividend yieldCBA forward dividend yield vs RBA cash rate

9 0%

10.0%

11.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Feb-

92A

ug-9

2Fe

b-93

Aug

-93

Feb-

94A

ug-9

4Fe

b-95

Aug

-95

Feb-

96A

ug-9

6Fe

b-97

Aug

-97

Feb-

98A

ug-9

8Fe

b-99

Aug

-99

Feb-

00A

ug-0

0Fe

b-01

Aug

-01

Feb-

02A

ug-0

2Fe

b-03

Aug

-03

Feb-

04A

ug-0

4Fe

b-05

Aug

-05

Feb-

06A

ug-0

6Fe

b-07

Aug

-07

Feb-

08A

ug-0

8Fe

b-09

Aug

-09

Feb-

10A

ug-1

0Fe

b-11

Aug

-11

Feb-

12A

ug-1

2

CBA dividend yield RBA cash rate

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Page 12: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Flight Centre – 2012 results by countryFlight Centre 2012 results by country

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Page 13: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Flight CentreFlight Centre

FSPEM buys

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Page 14: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

ResMedResMed

71st consecutive quarter of revenue growth71st consecutive quarter of revenue growth

Q4 2012

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Page 15: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

ResMed – Global obesity forecastResMed Global obesity forecast

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Page 16: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Res Med share priceRes Med share price

FSPEM buys

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Page 17: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

Current investment thoughtsCurrent investment thoughts

• Europe to remain weak for medium term• Europe to remain weak for medium term• Asian growth outlook still robust• Recent US economy data showing tentative positive signs• If ASX 200 can regain 5000 by November 2014, this equates to a 13% pa return.

ASX 200 was 4976 in April 2011 and was 5025 in April 2010• Australian Equity market has underperformed, most developed markets over the

l t F l ASX 200 5% US 9 5% G 18 2%last year. For example: ASX 200 5%, US 9.5%, Germany 18.2%• On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013

and 4.9% dividend yield• In the last year interest rates have fallen by 150 bps. Further easing in monetary policy

is anticipated.• 18 stocks in the portfolio achieved >10% EPS growth in FY 2012 • 22 stocks are forecast to achieve >10% EPS growth in FY 2013• Fund is focused on high quality companies with attractive dividends and modest

downside risk to earnings to generate solid returns

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Page 18: FSP Equities ManagementEquities Management presentation to ... BEL ASX... · • On consensus earnings the Australian equity market is trading on 12.5 times FY 2013 and 4.9% dividend

DisclaimerDisclaimer

“Performance is influenced by market volatility over time. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Neither FSP Equities Management Limited or any related corporation guarantee the repayment of capital or the performance of the FSP Equities Leaders Fund. The contents of this report have been prepared without taking into account your individual objectives,contents of this report have been prepared without taking into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, before acting you should consider the appropriateness of what is included here, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs.”

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