Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What’s Next?s3.amazonaws.com/JuJaMa.UserContent/009508e6-9ee7-4bd9-b0eb-6b3096...Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What’s Next? ... Capacity building both in

Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What’s Next?

9 November 2016Steigenberger Wiltcher's Hotel, Brussels, Belgium

Pipat SuttiwisedsakChief Operating Officer/ Managing DirectorEkarat Pattana Company LimitedEmail: [email protected]

01Thailand Biofuel Plan & Current Status

02Update on Thailand Ethanol Market

Agenda

03Surviving in an era of cheap crude oil

04KTIS More Than Sugar





Agenda

Statement by Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-chaat 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21)

30 November 2015, Paris, Republic of France

“On Thailand’s part, we commit to decarbonize

between 20 - 25 percent by the year 2030”

Source: Ministry of Energy

TIEB: Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint


Electricity

Heat

Bio-fuels

Share of RE Target (%) in 2036

20%

35%

25%

30%

AEDP 2015: Alternative Energy Development Plan


The drivers of renewable

development strategies

Development of alternative raw materials and potential areas for renewable energy production

Development of the high efficient renewable raw materials management and utilization model

Promote the development of appropriate technology for generation and utilization of energy

Improve infrastructure to support the production of renewable energy appropriately

Support people and a community to participate in the production and utilization of renewable energy Support the investment on renewable energy to manufactures and consumers both domestic and

international Promote the reducing of production costs and make renewable energy market more performance Develop the renewable energy law and rules to encourage the development of renewable energy

appropriately

Develop renewable energy databases and information management systems Publicize information, knowledge and statistical data on renewable energy Capacity building both in the theory and practice to make more ability in utilization of renewable energy Development of renewable energy and its related networks and encourage the participation of the whole network both

nationally and international level

Increasing renewable energy production, utilization and market potential

Increasing renewable energy production, utilization and market potential

Create awareness and access to knowledge and facts of renewable energy

Preparation of raw materials and renewable energy technologies

AEDP 2015: Alternative Energy Development Plan

75%66% 45%

25%

34%

55%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Now 2027f 2036f

MLP

D

Ethanol from CassavaEthanol from Molasses

Now30 mln MT

202742.5 mln MT

203659.5 mln MT

Now90 mln MT3.8 mln MT

2027 150 mln MT

6 mln MT

2036180 mln MT

8.55 mln MT

Sugar Cane & Molasses

Cassava

Ethanol Consumption & Blending

Target

2,700

4,125

1,300

AEDP 2015: Feedstock & Product Strategies


13%

24%

32%

Alternative Energy

Target in 2036

as of July’16

Progress%

Electricity (MW) 19,684.40 8,694.09 44.2

- Solar Energy 6,000.00 2,023.23 33.7

- Wind Energy 3,002.00 243.82 8.1

- Small Hydro Power 376.00 172.28 45.8

- Biomass 5,570.00 2,804.99 50.4

- Biogas 1,280.00 402.44 31.4

- MSW 550.00 140.93 25.6

- Large Hydro Power 2,906.40 2,906.40 100.0

Heat (ktoe) 25,088.00 4,103.00 16.4

- Solar Energy 1,200.00 0.24 0.0

- Biomass 22,100.00 3,839.00 17.4

- Biogas 1,283.00 212.00 16.5

- MSW 495.00 52.00 10.5

- Alternative Heat Energy

10.00 - n.a.

Biofuels

- Ethanol (MLPD) 11.30 3.61 31.9

- Biodiesel (MLPD) 14.00 4.09 29.2

- Pyrolysis Oil (MLPD) 0.53 - n.a.

- CBG (ton/days) 4,800.00 - n.a.

- Alternative Fuels (ktoe)

10.00 - n.a.

44.17%

16.35%

6.59%


Current Status of Alternative Energy





Agenda

Feedstock 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Cane 100.003 103.666 105.959 94.047 91.000

Molasses 4.541 4.293 4.587 4.325 4.000

Ethanol 2.646 2.895 3.166 3.120 3.200

Cane for Ethanol 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300

Cassava (Crop Survey) 28.276 30.228 33.610 31.810 32.640

Ethanol 1.634 1.864 2.169 2.200 2.420unit: million ton

Source: TSMC, TTTA, Custom Department of Thailand

Supply Side - Abundant feed-stocks

Source: TEMA, DEDE

Supply Side - Install Capacity Ethanol Plants in Thailand

Active Plants 2017 Newcomers

Feedstock Plant Capacity

Molasses & Cane juice 10 2,360,000

Molasses & Cassava 4 850,000

Sub-Total 64% 3,210,000

Cassava 7 1,830,000

Sub-Total 36% 1,830,000

Total 100% 21 5,040,000

Feedstock Plant Capacity

Molasses & Cassava 1 200,000

Sub-Total 1 200,000

Cassava 2 420,000

Sub-Total 2 420,000

Total 3 620,000

2016 2017 2018

Molasses & Cane 3,210,000 3,410,000 3,410,000

Cassava 1,830,000 2,250,000 2,970,000

Total 5,040,000 5,660,000 6,380,000Unit: Liter per day

Source: DEDE

As of Jul’16

309 263

381

532635

694759

52615

37

49

57

66

69

43

89 148

103

75

258

300

346

217

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Molasses Sugarcane Juice Cassava

397.68 425.74

520.51

655.54

949.09

1,060.70

1,173.79

785.66

Total Ethanol Production (Unit: ML)

77%

23%

64%

36%

80%

20%

89%

11%

73%

27%

72%

28%

71%

29%

72%

28%

Supply Side - Actual Ethanol Production by Feedstock

Source: DOEB

Supply Side - Gas Stations Service

194 271

542

830

1,311

2,045

2,665

3,0383,171

4 5 10 38 67280

596807 893

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

E20 Stations

E85 Stations

As of Sep’16

• There are total 25,000 gas stations with about 18,500 small-non-brand stations• E10 stations are well-spread in Thailand

Source: DOEB

Supply Side - Gas Stations

Gas StationsE85 893

E20 3,171as of Sept 2016

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan'

06

Jul'0

6

Jan'

07

Jul'0

7

Jan'

08

Jul'0

8

Jan'

09

Jul'0

9

Jan'

10

Jul'1

0

Jan'

11

Jul'1

1

Jan'

12

Jul'1

2

Jan'

13

Jul'1

3

Jan'

14

Jul'1

4

Jan'

15

Jul'1

5

Jan'

16

Jul'1

6

MLP

D

Source: DOEB

ULG95

ULG91

GSH95 E10

GSH91 E10

E20

E85Jan’08Started E20

Sep’08Started E85

Jan’13Terminated ULG91

Energy Policy

REDP 15 year2008-2022

AEDP 10 year2012-2021

AEDP 2015

Flooding

ULG95

GSH95 E10

Demand Side - Domestic Mogas Development

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 3.35 3.48 3.44 3.65 3.50 3.46 3.57 3.73 3.542015 3.12 3.16 3.15 3.30 3.17 3.19 3.28 3.23 3.17 3.27 3.31 3.552014 2.56 2.65 2.75 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.98 3.09 3.05 3.11 3.19 3.422013 1.95 2.11 2.25 2.34 2.33 2.35 2.40 2.50 2.36 2.46 2.57 2.622012 1.08 1.13 1.13 1.17 1.15 1.20 1.21 1.30 1.30 1.35 1.47 1.632011 1.17 1.22 1.17 1.24 1.19 1.24 1.21 1.17 0.99 0.87 0.84 1.092010 1.08 1.14 1.07 1.11 1.06 1.14 1.14 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.16 1.212009 1.15 1.13 1.15 1.14 1.15 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.08 1.172008 0.64 0.69 0.70 0.75 0.74 0.77 0.79 0.90 0.94 0.97 1.03 1.16

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

MLP

D

*Note: Ethanol consumption is calculated from minimum blending ratio

Source: DOEB

Sep’16*EtOH cons. = 3.54 MLPD

Demand Side - Ethanol Consumption Development

Demand Side - Ethanol Consumption Development

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 3.68 3.82 3.78 4.02 3.85 3.81 3.93 4.11 3.902015 3.44 3.48 3.47 3.63 3.49 3.52 3.60 3.55 3.49 3.59 3.65 3.902014 2.82 2.92 3.03 3.18 3.14 3.13 3.28 3.41 3.37 3.43 3.52 3.772013 2.15 2.33 2.48 2.58 2.57 2.59 2.64 2.76 2.60 2.71 2.83 2.882012 1.19 1.24 1.25 1.29 1.27 1.33 1.34 1.43 1.43 1.49 1.62 1.792011 1.29 1.35 1.29 1.37 1.32 1.37 1.34 1.29 1.09 0.96 0.93 1.202010 1.20 1.26 1.19 1.23 1.18 1.26 1.27 1.24 1.24 1.22 1.29 1.342009 1.28 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.22 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.20 1.302008 0.71 0.77 0.77 0.84 0.82 0.86 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.15 1.29

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

MLP

D

*Note: Ethanol consumption is calculated from maximum blending ratio

Source: DOEB

Sep’16*EtOH cons. = 3.90 MLPD

Demand Side - 2016 MOGAS & Ethanol Consumption

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Eth

anol

(M

LPD

)

Mog

as (

MLP

D)

ULG E10 95 E10 91 E20 E85 Total Ethanol

13.4%

Blending Ratio

13.3% 13.3%13.5%

13.5% 13.3% 13.5%13.5%

13.5%

Source: DOEB

8.88

2.10 1.53 1.60 1.55

5.28

8.277.54

9.0010.71

5.79

9.129.85

11.01

11.21

1.00 2.63 3.68

4.14

4.76

0.100.38

0.91

0.87

0.86

1.39

2.59

3.25

3.57

3.88

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Eth

anol

(M

LPD

)

Mog

as (

MLP

D)

ULG E10 95 E10 91 E20 E85 Total Ethanol

Demand Side - 5-year MOGAS & Ethanol Consumption

As of Sep’16

6.6%

Blending Ratio

11.5%13.8%

13.4%

13.3%

Source: DOEB

Ethanol

Source: Custom Department of Thailand

2013 2014 2015 2016

China 0 0 0 0

Japan 27,953 4 0 0

Korea R 10,306 0 0 0

Philippines 47,828 14,506 17,826 11,084

Singapore 9,315 0 0 0

Taiwan 10,431 2,849 96 0

Others 4,168 1,095 2,286 1,793

Total 101,001 18,454 20,208 12,877unit: CBM As of Aug’16

Demand Side - Ethanol Export Statistic





Agenda

Price Structure Of Petroleum Product in THAILAND As of 20 Oct 2016

UNIT(BAHT/LITRE)

EX-REFIN.(AVG) TAX Fund VAT Marketing

Margin VAT RETAIL

ULG 15.19 6.93 6.56 2.01 2.12 0.15 32.96

GASOHOL95 E10 16.10 6.24 0.60 1.61 1.22 0.09 25.95

GASOHOL91 15.86 6.24 0.60 1.59 1.21 0.08 25.58

GASOHOL95 E20 17.00 5.54 -2.75 1.39 2.02 0.14 23.34

GASOHOL95 E85 21.12 1.04 -9.10 0.91 4.31 0.30 18.59

H-DIESEL 14.99 6.22 0.26 1.50 1.70 0.12 24.79

Source: oil-price.net

Source: EPPO

Why Biofuels?

Decarbonize

Feedstock Balance

Economy: Investment, Jobs Create

Energy Security





Agenda

Sugar Mill Kaset Thai Sugar, 7MMT

Thai Identity Sugar, 2MMT

Ruampol Sugar, 1.8MMT

Bio Energy Kaset Thai Bio Power, 60MW Ekaluk Bio Power, 60MW

Ruampol Bio Power, 60MW

EPC Ethanol, 75,000 CBM

Bio Product EPPCO Bagasse Pulp,

100,000 MT

Kaset Thai Bio Fertilizer, 90,000 MT

KTIS GROUP

KTIS More Than Sugar

KTIS More Than Sugar

Domestic consumption is growing by E10

No surplus ethanol due to limit feedstock

Plants are running at full actual capacity

Next year feedstock is expected to decrease

Still needs support when crude oil is cheap

Do not forget “Climate change problem”

Conclusions

Q & A

Mr. Pipat SuttiwisedsakChief Operating Officer / Managing Director

Ekarat Pattana Company LimitedEmail: [email protected]

Factory: 9 Moo 14, Nongpho sub-district, Takli district, Nakhon Sawan 60140 THAILAND Tel: +66 5633 8421-2Office: 10th Floor, SINOBRIT building, 133 Vibhavadi-Rangsit Road, Samsennai, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 THAILAND Tel: +66 2644 8388

Documents

Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What’s Next?s3.amazonaws.com/JuJaMa.UserContent/009508e6-9ee7-4bd9-b0eb-6b3096...Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What’s Next? ... Capacity building both in