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22/04/2016
Fundamental Analysis
Friday, April 22, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (April 18-22)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
12:30 pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
TUESDAY
1:30 am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
9:00 am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment April 11.2 8.2 4.3
12:30 pm USD Building Permits March 1.09M 1.20M 1.18M
3:00 pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
WEDNESDAY
8:30 am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y February 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
12:30 pm CAD Wholesale Sales MoM February -2.2% -0.4% 0.2%
2:00 pm USD Existing Home Sales March 5.33M 5.29M 5.07M
THURSDAY
08:30 am GBP Retail Sales MoM March -1.3% -0.1% -0.5%
11:45 pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.0%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims April 16 247K 265K 253K
FRIDAY
8:00 am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI April 51.6
12:30 pm CAD Core CPI MoM March 0.5%
12:30 pm CAD Core Retail Sales MoM March 1.2%
Friday, April 22, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Japan Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank stood ready to expand monetary stimulus again if recent weaknesses in inflation expectations persist, stressing that there are "many ways" to do so to reach the price target. Kuroda also dismissed the view the BoJ's decision in January to introduce negative interest rates was directly aimed at weakening the Japanese Yen to give Japan's exports a competitive advantage. While maintaining his optimistic view of Japan's economic outlook, Kuroda admitted that inflation expectations have been weakening in recent months. The BoJ may reconsider its current projection that inflation will hit 2% around the first half of fiscal 2017 if assumptions it was based on, such as oil price moves, change. Euro zone German politicians and officials have repeatedly brutally castigated the European Central Bank for its monetary policy, with the latest critics coming from the outspoken German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. Central banks in Europe and the US must gradually abandon easy-money policies, Mr Schaeuble said. He also partly blamed the ECB's policy for the success of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) in recent regional elections. Mr Schaeuble and ECB President Mario Draghi will probably hold talks in Washington this week. G-20 policy makers will meet from April 14-15, with finance ministers and central-bank governors from 188 countries gathering from April 15-17 for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank to discuss how to revive weak global growth. Canada The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 0.5%, saying the Canadian economy continues to adjust to the oil price shock. The central bank admitted that GDP growth in the first quarter appeared to have been unexpectedly robust, but some of that strength was due to temporary factors and is likely to wane in the second quarter. Even though non-resource exports are predicted to strengthen, their profile is weaker than previously thought, partly due to slower foreign demand growth and the higher Canadian Dollar. The economy continues to create net new employment, especially in the services sector. Against this background, household spending continues to increase moderately.
Key highlights of the week ended April 15
EUR
“We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone not only for Germany” - Mario Draghi, ECB President
Friday, April 22, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
MAX 1.48 1.53 1.53
75% percentile 1.37 1.37 1.37
Median 1.34 1.34 1.33
25% percentile 1.31 1.30 1.29
MIN 1.10 1.24 0.84 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
ECB keeps monetary policy intact; faces sharp criticism from Germany
High
The European Central Bank held its interest rates at record lows and kept the size of its bond-purchasing programme unchanged, allowing some time for fresh stimulus measures announced last month to affect the economy. The 25-member Governing Council maintained the benchmark rate at zero, the deposit rate at minus 0.4% and asset purchases at 80 billion euros month. ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that there were still challenges ahead and there is a need to ensure that low inflation does not become entrenched, as the risks to the recovery remained "tilted to the downside". Thus, the monetary policy in the bloc will stay loose, if not looser, in the future. Also, Draghi particularly highlighted emerging market slowdown, subdued public investment and a lack of structural reforms. Additionally, Draghi robustly defended its cheap money policy against brutal a debate that has driven a wedge between the central bank and Germany, the Euro zone’s biggest economy. Criticism by politicians in Germany has intensified amid fears that the ECB could even start to hand out 'helicopter money' to citizens. Germans have a right to question the ECB's actions, but the ECB’s independence should not be breached, Chancellor Angela Merkel said
21.04 open price 21.04 close price % change
EUR/USD 1.1297 1.1288 -0.08%
EUR/GBP 0.7882 0.78811 -0.01%
EUR/CHF 1.09825 1.10048 +0.20%
EUR/JPY 124.09 123.55 -0.44%
USD
“The fact that the numbers continue to ratchet down suggests that labor demand is strong and a sign the labor market should continue to improve” -TIAA Global Asset Management
Friday, April 22, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
MAX 127 130 140
75% percentile 120 121 124
Median 115 116 119
25% percentile 112 113 115
MIN 105 100 81 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
US jobless claims continue to fall, hitting 4-decade low High
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week, reaching its lowest level since 1973, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter could be temporary. First-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates are currently as low as a 0.2% annualized rate. The economy expanded at a 1.4% rate in the fourth quarter. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the US, dropped by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 in the week ended April 16, according to the Labor Department. That was the lowest level for unemployment claims since the week of November 24, 1973. That also marked the 59th consecutive week that initial jobless claims remained below 300,000, the longest such streak in more than four decades. Employers created 215,000 jobs in March, whereas the unemployment rate edged up to 5%, but the rise partly reflected more workers entering the labour force. Fed officials will likely consider the relative health of the labour market at next week’s policy meeting. However recently, policy makers have voiced their concerns about weakness in the global economy and are watching inflation readings and wage gains closely. A large majority of economists expect the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at the meeting.
21.04 open price 21.04 close price % change
AUD/USD 0.7794 0.7738 -0.72%
USD/CHF 0.9722 0.9752 +0.31%
USD/JPY 109.84 109.46 -0.35%
NZD/USD 0.6978 0.6912 -0.95%
GBP
“These figures reinforce our view that UK economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2016” - British Chambers of Commerce
Friday, April 22, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
MAX 1.57 1.59 1.84
75% percentile 1.46 1.49 1.51
Median 1.43 1.45 1.47
25% percentile 1.40 1.42 1.44
MIN 1.35 1.29 1.23 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
UK retail sales fall the most in two years High
Britain’s retail sales recorded their biggest monthly decrease in more than two years in March as Britons cut back on food and clothes in the latest sign households are nervous about the economic outlook. The Office for National Statistics said that the UK retail sales fell 1.3% in March compared with February, a much larger fall than expected. The volume of sales excluding auto fuel dropped 1.6% from February, the most since January 2014. The retail sales data is the latest in a series of disappointing data, coming after weak industrial production numbers and the first increase in unemployment in almost a year. Retail sales figures suggest that consumer spending, the driver of recent economic growth, weakened in March amid weak pay growth and a gloomier economic outlook. The ONS also revealed that public-sector borrowing overshot official forecasts in the latest fiscal year and the national debt burden increased. A 4.8 billion-pound budget deficit in March left the full-year shortfall at 74 billion pounds, or 3.9% of gross domestic product. That compares with the 72.2 billion pounds projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility last month. The overshoot means George Osborne will have to find fresh savings in government spending, raise taxes or hope for quicker economic growth to reach his goal of balancing the government books by 2020.
21.04 open price 21.04 close price % change
GBP/USD 1.4332 1.4323 -0.06%
EUR/GBP 0.7882 0.78811 -0.01%
GBP/CAD 1.8137 1.8241 +0.57%
GBP/JPY 157.426 156.783 -0.41%
JPY
“Manufacturing conditions in Japan worsened at a sharper rate in April. Both production and new orders declined markedly, with total new work contracting at the fastest rate in over three years ”
- Markit
Friday, April 22, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
MAX 137 140 151
75% percentile 129 131 133
Median 125 127 129
25% percentile 123 123 122
MIN 116 106 103 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Japan April flash manufacturing PMI falls after Kumamoto
quakes High
Activity levels across Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted sharply in April. Japanese manufacturing activity contracted this month at the fastest in more than three years and output fell the most in two years, after earthquakes halted production in the southern manufacturing hub of Kumamoto. The preliminary Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell 1.1 points to a seasonally adjusted 48.0 in April from a final 49.1 in March. The data was way down the expected 49.6 figure. The PMI remained below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the second consecutive month and showed activity contracted the most since January 2013. Moreover, the output component of the PMI index also fell to 47.9 from 49.8 in the previous month to show the fastest contraction since April 2014. The sharp drop in total new work was underpinned by the fastest fall in international demand since December 2012, and following the two earthquakes in Kumamoto, the outlook of the goods-producing sector now looks especially uncertain. Although there is significant uncertainty over the April result, the weakness in the survey, along with other data outside of the labour market, could prompt the Bank of Japan to cut rates further into negative territory or add to its QQE program, or both, when it holds its next monetary policy meeting next week.
21.04 open price 21.04 close price % change
AUD/JPY 85.613 84.699 -1.07%
CAD/JPY 86.799 85.952 -0.98%
EUR/JPY 124.09 123.55 -0.44%
USD/JPY 109.84 109.46 -0.35%
Friday, April 22, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (April 11-15)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
1:30 am CNY CPI YoY March 2.3% 2.4% 2.3%
1:30 am CNY PPI YoY March -4.3% -4.6% -4.9%
TUESDAY
1:30 am AUD NAB Business Confidence March 6 3
8:30 am GBP CPI YoY March 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%
WEDNESDAY
12:30 pm USD Core Retail Sales MoM March 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
12:30 pm USD PPI MoM March -0.1% 0.3% -0.2%
2:00 pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
THURSDAY
1:30 am AUD Unemployment Rate March 5.7% 5.9% 5.8%
11:00 am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9
12:30 pm USD Core CPI MoM March 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
FRIDAY
2:00 am CNY GDP Q/Y Quarter 1 6.7% 6.7% 6.8%
2:00 am CNY Industrial Production YoY March 6.8% 5.9% 5.4%
12:30 pm CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM February -3.3% -1.4% 2.3%
2:00 pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment April 89.7 91.9 91.0
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
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