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07/02/2017
Fundamental Analysis
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (July 11– 15)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
03:00 pm USD FOMC Member George Speaks July
TUESDAY
07:00 am EUR German Final CPI June 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings July
WEDNESDAY
03:00 am CNY Trade Balance June 311B 320B 325B
14:00 pm CAD BOC Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
THURSDAY
02:30 am AUD Unemployment Rate July 5.8% 5.7% 5.8%
12:00 pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.5% 0.25% 0.50%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims July 263K 254K
FRIDAY
03:00 am CNY GDP 6.6% 6.7%
01:00 pm GBP BoE Gov Carney Speech
01:30 pm CAD Manufacturing Sales July 1.0%
01:30 am USD Consumer Price Index July 0.2% 0.2%
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (July 11– 15)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
03:00 pm USD FOMC Member George Speaks July
TUESDAY
07:00 am EUR German Final CPI June 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings July
WEDNESDAY
03:00 am CNY Trade Balance June 311B 320B 325B
14:00 pm CAD BOC Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
THURSDAY
02:30 am AUD Unemployment Rate July 5.8% 5.7% 5.8%
12:00 pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.5% 0.25% 0.50%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims July 263K 254K
FRIDAY
03:00 am CNY GDP 6.6% 6.7%
01:00 pm GBP BoE Gov Carney Speech
01:30 pm CAD Manufacturing Sales July 1.0%
01:30 am USD Consumer Price Index July 0.2% 0.2%
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (February 6 - 10)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
00:30 am AUD Retail Sales m/m December -0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
07:00 am USD German Factory Orders m/m December 5.2% 0.6% -3.6%
TUESDAY
02:00 am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q Q1 2017 1.92% 1.68%
03:30 am AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
08:30 am GBP Halifax HPI m/m January 1.7%
01:30 pm CAD Trade Balance December 0.5B
01:30 pm USD Trade Balance December -45.2B
WEDNESDAY
Tentative GBP EU Membership Vote
03:30 pm USD Crude Oil Inventories Last week 6.5M
08:00 pm NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
THURSDAY
01:30 pm CAD NHPI m/m December 0.2%
01:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims Last week 246K
FRIDAY
00:30 am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
09:30 am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m December 1.3%
01:30 pm CAD Employment Change January 53.7K
03:00 pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment February 98.5
Tuesday, February 07, 2017 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Euro zone An important indicator of the euro area's economic health stayed unchanged in June. The 19-country Markit Composite PMI, a forward-looking indicator tracking development in the euro area's manufacturing and services sectors, was unchanged at 53.1 points during the sixth month of the year, same as in May, when it rebounded from a 15-month trough. Meanwhile, conditions in the euro-zone services sector eased as the gauge tracking development in the area booked 52.8 points, down from 53.3 snatched in May. A level below 50.0 signals a deterioration from the previous month, while above 50.0 signals an increase. Among major euro area countries, France was once again the weakest performer, with PMIs pointing to a contraction in economic output. Indicators for Germany, Italy and Spain pointed to solid expansion. Data overall signaled a continued pick-up in employment, with job growth accelerating to a five-year high. US The number of Americans filing unemployment benefits unexpectedly plunged last week, to the lowest level since April, giving a hint that labour market started to recover amid a shaky global economy. According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits lost 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 254,000 for the week ended July 2. Moreover, following drop left claims close to a 43-year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April. Economists, in turn, had expected jobless claims to reach 270,000 from the 268,000 originally reported for the June. Meanwhile, today, on Friday, the highly anticipated June employment report will show whether job creation remains sluggish or is starting to recover. UK June was the worst month in seven years period for the Britain's builders since construction PMI entered a contraction territory, being affected by uncertainty over the results of the EU membership referendum. According to the data, the UK construction PMI index for the previous month was much weaker than expected slipping to 46.0 points, from 51.2 mark previously, and compared with an forecasted figure of 50.5. Moreover, following number was the first reading below 50.0 mark since April 2013 and the weakest level since the middle of 2009 as uncertainty covered the sector. Although, there are strong expectations of a further decline in next month's data. The main reasons for the following decline are the harsh drop in residential building as well as reduction in commercial work for the first time since May 2013. Although, residential construction activity went down at the fastest pace since December 2012. Civil engineering activity, in turn, remained broadly stable. Canada An important indicator of the euro area's economic health stayed unchanged in June. The 19-country Markit Composite PMI, a forward-looking indicator tracking development in the euro area's manufacturing and services sectors, was unchanged at 53.1 points during the sixth month of the year, same as in May, when it rebounded from a 15-month trough. Meanwhile, conditions in the Euro-zone services sector eased as the gauge tracking development in the area booked 52.8 points, down from 53.3 snatched in May.
Key highlights of the week ended July 8 Tuesday, February 07, 2017
08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Euro zone
An important indicator of the euro area's economic health stayed unchanged in June. The 19-country Markit Composite PMI, a forward-
looking indicator tracking development in the euro area's manufacturing and services sectors, was unchanged at 53.1 points during the
sixth month of the year, same as in May, when it rebounded from a 15-month trough. Meanwhile, conditions in the euro-zone services
sector eased as the gauge tracking development in the area booked 52.8 points, down from 53.3 snatched in May. A level below 50.0
signals a deterioration from the previous month, while above 50.0 signals an increase. Among major euro area countries, France was
once again the weakest performer, with PMIs pointing to a contraction in economic output. Indicators for Germany, Italy and Spain
pointed to solid expansion. Data overall signaled a continued pick-up in employment, with job growth accelerating to a five-year high.
US
The number of Americans filing unemployment benefits unexpectedly plunged last week, to the lowest level since April, giving a hint that
labour market started to recover amid a shaky global economy. According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state
unemployment benefits lost 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 254,000 for the week ended July 2. Moreover, following drop left claims
close to a 43-year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April. Economists, in turn, had expected jobless claims to reach 270,000 from the
268,000 originally reported for the June. Meanwhile, today, on Friday, the highly anticipated June employment report will show whether
job creation remains sluggish or is starting to recover.
UK
June was the worst month in seven years period for the Britain's builders since construction PMI entered a contraction territory, being
affected by uncertainty over the results of the EU membership referendum. According to the data, the UK construction PMI index for
the previous month was much weaker than expected slipping to 46.0 points, from 51.2 mark previously, and compared with an
forecasted figure of 50.5. Moreover, following number was the first reading below 50.0 mark since April 2013 and the weakest level
since the middle of 2009 as uncertainty covered the sector. Although, there are strong expectations of a further decline in next month's
data. The main reasons for the following decline are the harsh drop in residential building as well as reduction in commercial work for
the first time since May 2013. Although, residential construction activity went down at the fastest pace since December 2012. Civil
engineering activity, in turn, remained broadly stable.
Key highlights of the week ended July 8 Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
US
Consumers’ mood in the United States deteriorated markedly in January, a monthly survey revealed on Tuesday. The Conference Board
said its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 111.8 points in January after hitting 113.7, the highest level in 15 years, in the preceding
month, while market analysts anticipated a slighter decrease to 112.6 during the reported period. Meanwhile, the Institute of Supply
Management reported its Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 56.0 in January, up from the preceding month’s reading of 54.5 and
surpassing analysts' expectations for 55.0 points. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted
246,000 in the week ending January 28 from the preceding week’s upwardly revised 260,000, while analysts anticipated a slighter decline
to 251,000. The result marked 100 weeks below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973.
UK
British manufacturing activity fell during the first month of 2017, as the weak British Pound pushed the prices of imports sharply higher, a
private survey revealed on Tuesday. Markit/CIPS said its Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 55.9 points in January after hitting its
two-and-a-half year high of 56.1 in December. On Thursday, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold interest
rates at historic lows of 0.25% and let their 60 billion-pound bond purchases end this month as scheduled. Moreover, policymakers left
unchanged the Bank’s corporate bond buying program. The majority of analysts suggest that the BoE’s interest rates would probably
remain unchanged until the middle of 2019, the projected date of Britain’s exit from the EU. In addition, the Central bank revised up its
forecasts for 2017.
Canada
The Canadian economy advanced for the fifth consecutive month in November amid the strengthening manufacturing sector, official
figures revealed on Tuesday. Gross Domestic Product climbed 0.4% in the reported month that was above analysts’ forecasts of a 0.3%
hike. Meanwhile, the October reading was revised up to a 0.2% decline from the originally reported 0.3% slump. On an annualized basis,
the Canadian economy expanded 1.6%. In the meantime, the goods-producing sector advanced 0.9%, after falling 0.1% in the previous
month. Growth was driven by a 1.4% monthly increase in the mining and energy sector, which grew 3.0% on an annual basis in the same
month. Separately, Statistics Canada reported manufacturing output rose 1.4%.
Key highlights of the week ended February 3
EUR
“All recent data point to a very strong start for 2017 in Germany and in the euro area after a very good fourth quarter”. -Julian Trahorsch, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg
Tuesday, February 07, 2017 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 1.19 1.18 1.22
75% percentile 1.07 1.08 1.10
Median 1.05 1.04 1.05
25% percentile 1.03 1.02 1.01
MIN 0.98 0.95 0.90 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
German factory orders rebound sharply in December High
06.02 open price 06.02 close price % change
EUR/USD 1.0795 1.0751 -0.41%
EUR/GBP 0.8642 0.8625 -0.20%
EUR/CHF 1.0704 1.0654 -0.47%
EUR/JPY 121.43 120.15 -1.07%
Germany factory orders rose markedly in the last month of 2016, driven by a sharp increase in demand for investment goods, official figures revealed on Monday. According to the Economy Ministry, German industrial orders advanced at seasonally adjusted rate of 5.2% in December, following the preceding month’s downwardly revised fall of 3.6% and surpassing market analysts’ expectations for an increase of 0.6%. The December pace was the strongest since July 2014. On an annual basis, factory orders grew 8.1% in December. Monday’s data provided evidence that economic growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2016 after climbing just 0.2% in the Q3 of 2016. The Q4 2017 GDP data is scheduled to be released on February 2014. The majority of analysts suggest the economy expanded at a 0.5% pace during the Q4. However, their long-term forecasts are less optimistic in large due to the upcoming German federal elections. Yesterday’s data also showed export orders climbed 10% month-over-month in December, driven by a 19.5% increase in demand for capital goods from the Euro zone. Meanwhile, domestic orders advanced 6.7% during the same period. On a quarterly basis, factory orders grew 4.3% in the Q4. After the release, the Euro extended its losses, falling to 1.0746 against the US Dollar.
NZD
“With this in mind we expect that the RBNZ will keep the OCR unchanged this Thursday when it releases its February Monetary Policy Statement. We also expect that they will retain the neutral stance of its November statement”. - Westpac
Tuesday, February 07, 2017 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 0.77 0.77 0.78
75% percentile 0.71 0.70 0.71
Median 0.69 0.69 0.68
25% percentile 0.68 0.67 0.66
MIN 0.63 0.61 0.59 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Inflation expectations improve markedly in Q1 of 2017 High
06.02 open price 06.02 close price % change
AUD/NZD 1.0503 1.0463 -0.38%
EUR/NZD 1.4785 1.4689 -0.65%
GBP/NZD 1.7089 1.7031 -0.34%
NZD/USD 0.7302 0.7319 0.23%
New Zealand’s inflation expectations advanced markedly in the first quarter of 2017, the latest quarterly survey revealed on Tuesday. In a report, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said two-year inflation expectations climbed to 1.92% in the first quarter, the highest level since 2014, from 1.68% in the preceding quarter. However, inflation is expected to remain below the Central bank’s inflationary target of 2%. The survey also showed that one-year inflation expectations that are less important for the Bank’s monetary policy advanced to 1.56% from 1.29% in the previous quarter. Inflation expectations are closely followed by the RNBZ, as they provide advance knowledge of future inflation. Inflation expectations remained low over the past several years amid low headline inflation. Nevertheless, Tuesday’s promising data combined with December’s rise in headline inflation above 1% suggest that inflation might actually improve in the upcoming months. However, analysts say that inflation is unlikely to return to 2% in the near term. Moreover, rapid population growth and the economy’s productive capacity put pressure on economic growth. After the release, the New Zealand Dollar rose from 67.90 to 68.72 against the Euro, from 58.65 to 59.02 against the British Pound.
AUD
“This is very clearly a message from a central bank that does not want to cut interest rates any further”. -Paul Bloxham, HSBC
Tuesday, February 07, 2017 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 0.80 0.81 0.82
75% percentile 0.74 0.74 0.75
Median 0.73 0.72 0.72
25% percentile 0.71 0.71 0.70
MIN 0.68 0.63 0.60 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Reserve Bank of Australia leaves interest rates
unchanged High
06.02 open price 06.02 close price % change
AUD/JPY 86.38 85.59 -0.92%
AUD/USD 0.7668 0.7658 -0.13%
EUR/AUD 1.4077 1.4038 -0.28%
GBP/AUD 1.6291 1.6276 -0.09%
As markets expected, Australia’s Central bank left its key interest rates unchanged at a record low of 1.5% at the end of its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and signaled it would keep the rates on hold for a considerable period. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest forecasts, the economy is expected to expand at an annualized pace of 3% over the next several years, while inflation is likely to rise above the Central bank’s 2% inflationary target already this year. In the final quarter of 2017, Australian inflation rose 1.5% year-over-year, missing forecasts and staying below the RBA’s 2% target. Since the world's major central banks are unlikely to ease their monetary policies in the near term, analysts suggest that the RBA would follow the exact same pattern. Moreover, some analysts say that the Central bank is likely to keep its interest rates steady until 2018. After the release, the Aussie rose against other major currencies, climbing against the Greenback from 0.7637 ahead of the release to 0.7675. Tuesday’s statement also pointed to the inconsistent housing market trends, saying that while some regions see sharp increases in prices, others experience subdued price growth. A report released by CoreLogic last week showed prices in capital advanced 10.7% in 2016 after climbing 7.4% in the preceding year.
Tuesday, February 07, 2017 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events of the previous week (July 4– 8)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
02:30 am AUD Building Approvals (MoM) June -5.2% -3.6% 3.3%
09:30 am GBP Construction PMI July 46.0 50.6 51.2
TUESDAY
02:30 am AUD Trade Balance July -2.22B -1.72B -1.58B
09:30 am GBP Services PMI July 52.3 53.1 53.5
WEDNESDAY
01:30 pm CAD Trade Balance July -3.3B -2.7B -2.9B
03:00 pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI July 56.5 53.5 52.9
THURSDAY
09:30 am GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) July -0.5% -1.4% 2.3%
01:30 am USD Unemployment Claims July 254K 272K 268K
FRIDAY
09:30 am GBP Goods Trade Balance July -9.9B -10.2B -10.5B
01:30 pm CAD Unemployment Rate July 6.8% 7.0% 6.9%
01:30 am USD Unemployment Rate July 4.9% 4.8% 4.7%
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events of the previous week (July 4– 8)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
02:30 am AUD Building Approvals (MoM) June -5.2% -3.6% 3.3%
09:30 am GBP Construction PMI July 46.0 50.6 51.2
TUESDAY
02:30 am AUD Trade Balance July -2.22B -1.72B -1.58B
09:30 am GBP Services PMI July 52.3 53.1 53.5
WEDNESDAY
01:30 pm CAD Trade Balance July -3.3B -2.7B -2.9B
03:00 pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI July 56.5 53.5 52.9
THURSDAY
09:30 am GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) July -0.5% -1.4% 2.3%
01:30 am USD Unemployment Claims July 254K 272K 268K
FRIDAY
09:30 am GBP Goods Trade Balance July -9.9B -10.2B -10.5B
01:30 pm CAD Unemployment Rate July 6.8% 7.0% 6.9%
01:30 am USD Unemployment Rate July 4.9% 4.8% 4.7%
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events previous week (January 30 - February 3)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
08:00 am CHF KOF Economic Barometer January 101.7 102.9 102.1
01:30 pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m December 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
TUESDAY
10:00 am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y January 1.8% 1.5% 1.1%
01:30 pm CAD GDP m/m November 0.4% 0.3% -0.2%
03:00 pm USD CB Consumer Confidence January 111.8 112.6 113.7
09:45 pm NZD Unemployment Rate Q4 2016 5.2% 4.8% 4.9%
WEDNESDAY
09:30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI January 55.9 55.9 56.1
01:15 pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change January 246K 165K 151K
THURSDAY
00:30 am AUD Building Approvals m/m December -1.2% -1.7% 7.5%
12:00 am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
01:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims Last week 246K 251K 260K
FRIDAY
09:30 am GBP Services PMI January 54.5 55.8 56.2
Tentative USD Non-Farm Employment Change January 227K 170K 157K
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Disclaimer Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group. Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all information in this article. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, contingent or any other damages sustained in connection with the use of this article.
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