Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and

vulnerability in Europe

Funded under the European CommissionSeventh Framework Programme

Contract Number: 244031

Project overview

For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: [email protected]) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Partners

• Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK• TIAMASG Foundation, Romania• Prospex bvba, Belgium• ESSRG Kft, Hungary• Cranfield University, UK• CREAF, Spain• University of Kassel, Germany• Mendel University, Czech Republic• University of the Aegean, Greece• Rob Tinch, Belgium• Sustainable Environment Research Institute, Austria• University of Edinburgh, UK• University of Lund, Sweden• Wageningen University, The Netherlands• University of Southampton, UK• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, China• University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia• Victoria University, Australia


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CLIMSAVE Research Themes

1. Developing a web-based tool (the Integrated Assessment Platform) for stakeholders to use to assess cross-sectoral climate change impacts and adaptation options for themselves.

2. Based on a series of linked sectoral models for 6 sectors: urban, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water and coasts.

3. Developing new socio-economic scenarios with stakeholders that will be quantified within the tool along with a range of climate scenarios.

4. Assessing climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for both sectoral and ecosystem services indicators.

5. Analysing the cost-effectiveness of adaptation options.

6. Identifying vulnerability hotspots through metrics of impacts and adaptive capacity across sectors.


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Need for Integrated Assessment Tools

• Decision-makers and other stakeholders need reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and opportunities for adaptation.

• The EC White Paper on Adapting to Climate Change indicates that information and research on climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe is not effectively shared across sectors and decision-making levels.

• Conclusion: there is a need for cross-sectoral, integrated assessment tools that take account of stakeholder concerns and requirements -> CLIMSAVE IA Platform.

• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform will be a key tool in the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT).


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The CLIMSAVE IA Platform

• Previously:– Models ‘belonged’ to the research

community– Lack of flexibility for stakeholders

(scenarios, quantification, sensitivity, uncertainty, outputs, etc.)

• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform intends to:– Be intuitive and accessible to all– Flexible / Interactive– Useful– Be an exploratory tool, not a DSS


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Cross-sectoral focus

Urban

Agriculture

Forests

Biodiversity

Water

Coasts

Competition for land

Competition for water

Impacts


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Simplified cross-sectoral linkages

Urban Crop yields

Forestry

Flooding

Rural land allocation

Hydrology

Biodiversity

Pests & diseases

Water use

Snow cover

Water availability

Climate & socio-economic scenarios


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Initial design of IA PlatformConstruction of meta-models

Workshop 1: Draft four socio-economic scenarios

Quantification of scenariosFeedback on design and functionality

Workshop 2:Enrich and expand scenarios

Revisit the quantification of scenariosDefine adaptation options

Workshop 3: Test IA Platform with adaptation options

Explore impacts and adaptation responses

Final CLIMSAVE IA Platform

Participatory scenario development


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Participatory socio-economic scenarios

Europe Scotland

Surplus Deficit


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The Impacts screen of the IA Platform

Allows you to:

• Carry out a sensitivity analysis• Model the impacts of different future climate and

socio-economic scenarios• Explore the effects of uncertainty within a scenario

Sensitivity analysis

Explore how changing the baseline socio-economic

assumptions affects model results

Explore how changing the baseline climate affects model results

Scenario analysis

Socio-economic scenarios were developed by stakeholders during the CLIMSAVE project See how impacts

change for different scenarios

Select your:• Time period (2020s or 2050s)• IPCC Emissions scenario• Climate model (5)• Climate sensitivity (medium is default)• Socio-economic scenario


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Illustrative results for the 2050s

Should I StayGDP: -36%Popn: +23%Yld Tech: -3%

Riders on the stormGDP: +54%Popn: +16%Yld Tech: +26%

Should I StayWat Tech: -60%Wat Beh: +11%

Riders on the stormWat Tech: +45%Wat Beh: +52%

Change in the area of intensive agriculture:

Water exploitation index:

Explore scenario uncertainty

Default slider positions developed by CLIMSAVE

stakeholders

Green (for “Go”) range is stakeholder-derived scenario uncertainty

Yellow (for “Caution”) range to explore greater

uncertainty

Red (for “Stop”)


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Adaptation screen

Marker shows setting from the Impacts screen

Difference between the marker and the slider represents the amount of adaptation

Moving to the adaptation screen fixes

the scenarios

Green range represents credible adaptation. This is a function of the scenario and the

available capital (human, social and manufactured)


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Example results on adaptation

• Increase irrigation efficiency by maximum allowed for each socio-economic scenario

Scenario Change in Irrigation usage (%)

Change in food production (%)

Change in river basins with WEI>0.4 [n=92]

We are the World +18% +2.3 +2

Icarus +24% +1.4 +3

Riders on the Storm +7% +0.2 -1

Should I Stay…? +32% +3.9 +2

• Allows more land to be irrigated• Increases relative profitability of irrigated

agriculture• Increases no. river basins under high water stress

Vulnerability screen

With Coping Capacity (a function of the Capitals)

Combines Impact (relative to a threshold)

before or after adaptation

To give a map of Vulnerability


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Vulnerability of people in 2050s

Percentage of the European population vulnerable, relative to baseline, for the six ecosystem service indices by socio-economic and climate scenario.

Limiting capital for the implementation and efficacy

of a measure (from dark green for very high capital availability to red for very

low)

Qualitative assessment of the cost of implementation of a measure across a sector

Qualitative assessment of the potential contribution the

measure could make to overall effective adaptation in a sector

Cost-effectiveness screen


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Conclusions

• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is an interactive exploratory web-based tool to enable a wide range of professional, academic and governmental stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability under uncertain futures.

• Its holistic framework (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) is intended to complement, rather than replace, the use of more detailed sectoral tools used for local predictions.

• It is intended to assist stakeholders and researchers in developing their capacity to understand the interactions between different sectors, rather than viewing sectors in isolation.

• Available from www.climsave.eu or Climate-ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/climsave-tool).


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The CLIMSAVE team

For further information, please contact the Project Coordinator: Paula Harrison, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford;

email: [email protected]

Documents

Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031