Future Buildings Forum 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives · 2018. 2. 8. · increasing global population, building activity drivers and growing floor area in buildings. Decomposition

Future Buildings Forum 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives Brian Dean, International Energy Agency Singapore, October 2017

© IEA 2017

A rapid reversal in trends to meet global climate ambitions

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

Meeting global ambitions to meet 2°C or below will require a rapid reduction in CO2 emissions.

Sources: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre; IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances; IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017

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1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Gt CO 2

eq RTS

2DS

B2DS

© IEA 2017

Buildings are not on track to meet 2DS objectives

Despite some positive developments in the last two years, more assertive action is still needed to put the global buildings sector on track.

Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017

© IEA 2017

Energy demand in the buildings sector continues to grow

Energy efficiency in buildings is not keeping up with the impact of a growing and more prosperous global population, resulting in 425 EJ of cumulative energy demand growth since 1990.

Decomposition of global final energy demand in buildings by key contribution

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

EJ

Other

Floor area

Household occupancy

Population

Energy efficiency

Final energy change


© IEA 2017

Through aggressive energy technology deployment…

Rapid energy efficiency deployment, alongside shifts from fossil fuels to high‐performance, renewable and integrated energy technologies, leads to cumulative energy savings of 1 275 EJ under the B2DS.

Cumulative energy savings by end use relative to the RTS

-1 400

-1 200

-1 000

- 800

- 600

- 400

- 200

02014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

EJ

Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other

2DS

-1 400

-1 200

-1 000

- 800

- 600

- 400

- 200

02014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

B2DS

© IEA 2017

…we can reverse historical trends

Energy efficiency measures under the B2DS reverse historical trends, offsetting the effect of an increasing global population, building activity drivers and growing floor area in buildings.

Decomposition of global final energy demand in buildings by key contribution

- 75 - 50 - 25 0 25 50 75

2014

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

EJ

Historical

Population Floor areaActivity Envelope improvementsProduct performance Technology choiceOthers Annual energy change

-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100

2060

2055

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2014

EJ

B2DS


© IEA 2017

Capturing the enormous energy efficiency potential in buildings

Going to B2DS would increase electrification and the use of renewables

Buildings final energy consumption by scenario and fuel type

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2014 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060

RTS 2DS B2DS

MW

h pe

r pe

rson

EJ

Renewables

Commercial heat

Electricity

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass (traditional)

Energy intensity


© OECD/IEA 2017

Space Heating and Cooling Mission Innovation challenge #7

© IEA 2017

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Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other

RTS

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B2DS

MI challenge #7 : affordable heating and cooling in buildings

Rapid energy efficiency deployment, and a shift from fossil fuels to high‐performance, renewable and integrated energy technologies, leads to most savings in heating and cooling under the B2DS.

Building end-use energy to 2060


© IEA 2017

MI challenge #7 : affordable heating and cooling in buildings

Strategic shifts to heat pumps, renewables and low‐carbon & efficient district energy would cut final energy demand for heating and cooling by more than 40% in 2060.

Heating and cooling final energy use and equipment stock shares by scenario

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2014 RTS - 2060 2DS - 2060 B2DS - 2060

EJ

Final energy use by equipment type

Fossil fuel equipment Conventional electric equipment Efficient electric equipment District heating and cooling Renewables

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2014 RTS - 2060 2DS - 2060 B2DS - 2060

Equipment shares


© IEA 2017

Heat-pumps can drive energy efficiency in buildings

Heat pump technologies continue to improve and can drive energy efficiency in buildings.


Heating equipment energy efficiencies

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World

Coal boilers Oil boilers Gas boilers Gas heat-pumps Electrical heat-pumps Modern solid biomass

© IEA 2017

Heating equipment

Heat pumps, solar thermal and district heat is key to B2DS

Evolution of heating equipment in buildings to 2060

Coal and oil boilers Gas boilers Efficient gas technologies Heat pumps

Electric resistance District heat Solar thermal Efficient biomass

Inner to outer ring

201420202030204020502060

RTS 2DS B2DS


© IEA 2017

Demand for space cooling is heating up

Space cooling (along with appliances and lighting) is expected to have significant growth.

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Inde

x 19

90 =

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Space cooling

Appliances and otherequipment

Lighting

Water heating

Cooking

Space heating

Global energy consumption by building end-use, 1990-2050

Source: IEA Energy Efficiency Market Report 2016

© IEA 2017

Cooling sales aren’t keeping up with performance potential

Cooling demand could increase as much as tenfold in some countries over the next 40 years, and average equipment performance is far from its energy efficiency potential.

Typical energy efficiency ratios of split‐package air conditioners in 2015

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USA China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa Brazil

Aver

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annu

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oolin

g gr

owth

to 2

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Averageperformance

Average annualgrowth rate incooling to 2025


© IEA 2017

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Cooling final energy (PJ)

Cooling equipment policies New building envelope policies Retrofit building envelope policies Cooling equipment BAT New building envelope BAT Retrofit building envelope BAT

Space cooling energy savings are achievable

Space cooling energy use could plateau by 2060 with improved policies

Cooling final energy savings potential, 2015‐2060

or decrease with the implementation of best available technology Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, IEA Energy Efficiency Market Report 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Lighting

© IEA 2017

LED starts to see the light of day…

LED market share in residential lamp sales overtook incandescents in 2015 and reached nearly 30% of the lighting market in 2016.

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100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LEDs

LFLs

CFLs

Halogens

Incandescents

Residential lighting sales share by technology type

© IEA 2017

Accelerating deployment of high-efficiency technologies

Rapid deployment of energy‐efficient technologies will create critical mass in the market, helping to lower technology costs and drive R&D for greater energy performance.

Lighting equipment performance and residential LED sales share to 2060

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lm/W

Incandescent Halogen CFL LFL LED - RTS LED - 2DS LED - B2DS

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Shar

e of

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dent

ial L

ED sa

les

© OECD/IEA 2017

Building envelope

© IEA 2017

Locking in better buildings today…

High‐performance building construction and deep energy renovations of existing buildings play a critical role in reducing buildings sector energy demand.

Changes in global residential building stock and energy intensity to 2060

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RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS

2014 2020 2040 2060

Aver

age

ener

gy i

nten

sity

impr

ovem

ent

Billi

on m

2

nZEBs

Renovated buildings

New construction

Renovated stock

Global average

Improvement

© IEA 2017

…to avoid energy demand tomorrow

Delaying building envelope measures would result in the equivalent of three years of additional energy consumption for heating and cooling in the buildings sector.

Consequences of a ten‐year delay in achieving building envelope objectives

34EJ

93EJ

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2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Totalheating

loss

Totalcooling

loss

EJ

nZEB and renovated buildings Other buildings Loss to delay

RTS

B2DS

China39

OECD48Other

non-OECD15

Other Asia15

Eurasia10

Cumulative loss by region (EJ)

© OECD/IEA 2017

A call to action

© IEA 2017

Delivering sustainable energy in buildings at affordable prices

Continued R&D and larger economies of scale can help to drive down the costs for high‐performance, energy‐efficient and renewable technologies to 2060.

Building investment to 2060 and share of total B2DS investment by key region

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RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS

2016-30 2031-45 2046-60

USD

trill

ion

OECD non-OECD

North America

12%

WesternEurope

10%

Eurasia3%

China18%

India16%

Middle East& Africa

18%

Other Asia & Pacific

17%

Latin America & Caribbean

6%

© IEA 2017

Technology strategies for a B2DS buildings sector

Whole building

High‐performance envelope components and whole building packages

nZEB(+) building construction across all countries

Low‐cost deep energy renovation solutions

Zero‐carbon building energy communities

Heating and cooling equipment

Improved thermal distribution and control

High‐performance heat pumps and solar thermal solutions

Responsive and affordable thermal energy storage

Integrated, flexible district energy solutions


Lighting and appliances

High‐performance, lower cost solid state lighting

Integrated design and control for lighting service

High‐efficiency appliance technologies

Performance standards for plug loads and smarter use of connected devices

Cooking and energy access

Clean, affordable cooking solutions for developing countries

Low‐cost solar thermal and storage solutions

Efficient, low‐polluting biomass solutions

© IEA 2017

Policy strategies for a B2DS buildings sector

Building construction & renovation

Mandatory building energy codes for new and existing buildings

Capacity building and training

Financing and market incentives

Cooperation and knowledge sharing

Transition to zero-carbon buildings

Long‐term, strategic vision for energy transition

Phase‐out of fossil fuel subsidies and other perverse incentives

Assertive market frameworks

Integrated, flexible district energy solutions


Rapid energy efficiency deployment

Minimum energy performance standards

Labelling and awareness programmes

Financing and market incentives

Support for market scale (e.g. bulk procurement)

Technology innovation

Supporting R&D beyond current BAT

Cost reductions for critical technologies

Integrated energy technology solutions

Advances in clean energy technologies

© IEA 2017

Energy Efficient

Prosperity Energy efficiency

as a means to support economic

and social development.

Action: deliver multiple benefits through energy efficiency

© IEA 2017

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Future Buildings Forum 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives · 2018. 2. 8. · increasing global population, building activity drivers and growing floor area in buildings. Decomposition