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8/14/2019 Future Climate Joint Report
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Future Climate
Engineering Solutions
Joint report
13 engineering participatingengeneering associations
Binding targets to drive
development towardsGHG reductions
Call for a framework forjoint technology development
Achieve GHG reductions byusing energy more wisely
Action needed in the transport sector
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Cover: Rune.Anders.Lars
Printed: IDAs Print Centre
ISBN: EAN 978-87-87254-25-0
Issued by The Danish Society o Engineers, IDA
September 2009
Kalvebod Brygge 31-33
1780 Kbenhavn V
Denmark
Telephone +45 33 18 48 48
Fax +45 33 18 48 99
Email: [email protected]
Editorial:
Jacob Fink Ferdinand
Pernille Hagedorn-Rasmussen
Bjarke Fonnesbech
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Participating o rganisations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Key Common Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Engineering Solutions A Climate call rom engineers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Summaries o National Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Summary o The Climate Plan or Norway. . . . . . . . . .27
Summary o National Report rom
the Institution o Mechanical Engineers, UK . . . . . . .31
Summary o the Climate Plan or India . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
Summary o the VDI Report or Germany. . . . . . . . . . .39
The Strategy o Japan Society
o Mechanical Engineers (JSME) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Summary o The Climate Plan or USA . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
Summary o The climate plan or Finland . . . . . . . . . .47
Summary o the Climate Plan or Ireland . . . . . . . . . .51
Summary o The Climate Plan or Sweden. . . . . . . . . .55
Summary o the IDA Climate Plan or Denmark. . . . .59
Advisory Board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Sponsors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64
Table of Contents
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4 | Future Climate Joint Report
Participating organisations
The Institution
o Engineers (India)
Federation o Scientic
Engineering Unions
in Bulgaria
The Japan Society o
Mechanical Engineers,
JSME
Institution o Mechanical
Engineers (UK)
Union o Proessional Engineers,
UIL (Finland)
Engineers Ireland The American Society o
Mechanical Engineers, ASME (USA)
The Danish Society
o Engineers, IDA
The Norwegian Society
o Engineers, NITOThe Swedish Association
o Graduate Engineers
The Finnish Association
o Graduate Engineers,
TEK (Finland)
APESMA
(Australia)
The Association o German
Engineers, VDI
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Future Climate Joint Report | 5
Overcoming climate change is a major challenge or
the global society, and the oremost engineering chal-
lenge o the 21st century. There is crucial need to reduce
emissions o greenhouse gases (GHG) in order to keep
the rise in temperature below two degrees Celsius.
13 Engineering Associations rom around the world are
part o the project Future Climate - Engineering Solu-
tions. Within the project the participating associationshave been developing national climate plans and tech-
nology prospects. The plans and prospects show how
GHG emissions can be reduced substantially, and how a
sustainable path o development can be reached.
The ollowing Associations have been part o
the project:
The Norwegian Society o Engineers,
NITO (Norway)
Institution o Mechanical Engineers,
IMechE (United Kingdom)
The Institution o Engineers (India)
The Association o German Engineers,
VDI (Germany)
The Japan Society o Mechanical Engineers,
JSME (Japan)
The American Society o Mechanical Engineers,
ASME (USA)1
The Finnish Association o Graduate Engineers,
TEK (Finland)
1. The American Society o Mechanical Engineers ully
endorses the objective o the project, but was not yet in a
position to endorse the nal tex t o the joint report.
Union o Proessional Engineers, UIL (Finland)
Engineers Ireland (Ireland)
The Swedish Association o Graduate Engineers
(Sweden)
The Association o Proessional Engineers,
Scientists and Managers, Australia, APESMA(Australia)
Federation o the Scientifc - Engineering Unions
in Bulgaria, FNTS (Bulgaria)
The Danish Society o Engineers, IDA (Denmark)
This joint report includes summaries o the work pro-
vided by the Engineering Associations.
Based on the climate plans and technology prospects,the Advisory Board and the participating Associati-
ons o the Future Climate project have extracted ve
key, common ndings that could move the global soci-
ety onto a low-carbon track. To ensure the necessary
GHG emissions reductions or a two-degree scenario,
the Associations behind the project have put orward
ve recommendations or a Global Climate Treaty.
On behal o the Engineering Associations involved
in the project, I urge the leaders o the world to take
up the climate challenge and apply solutions or a
sustainable uture.
Lars Bytot
President o the Danish Society o Engineers
Foreword
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Future Climate Joint Report | 7
Executive summary
Future Climate Engineering Solutions Joint Report
is the common output and a documentation o more
than 1 years eort by 13 engineering associations
in 12 countries to demonstrate how technologies
can combat climate change.
The report consists o three parts: Summaries o 10
national climate plans and technology prospects, 5Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call rom Engi-
neers to create a new global climate treaty.
The basic assumption o the project is recognition
that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the
atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level.
The project denition o a sustainable level is equiva-
lent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which
was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by
the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is mostlikely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4C.
The Future Climate websitewww.utureclimate.ino
holds more inormation about the project, including
possibility to download project material, including
the ull national climate plans.
Summaries o nationalclimate plans
The participating organisations have either develo-
ped national climate plans or plans or promising low
carbon technologies. The engineering organisations
o Norway, UK, India, Germany, Finland, Ireland,
Sweden and Denmark have developed climate plans,
which describe the most important technologies and
technological solutions proposed to meet the target
o a 50-85% green house gas (GHG) reduction by 2050
(excluding India as a developing country).
Executive summary
Development in GHG emissionsreductions by 2050 compared to 2007
Development in reduction o total energyconsumption by 2050 compared to 2007
Norway -76 % -30 %
UK -89 % -42 %
India (10% economicgrowth pa scenario)
+103% -
Germany (scenario 1/2/3) - 50 % / - 50 % / -63 % - 33 % / -29 %/ -19 %
Japan - 50 % -
US - -
Finland -74 % +12 %
Ireland -60 % -
Sweden No net emissions -30 %
Denmark -94 % -50 %
Table 1: Future Climate GHG emissions and energy reductions by 2050 or the 10 national climate plans
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Executive summary
The Japan Society o Mechanical Engineers has develo-
ped roadmaps or promising technologies or a sustaina-
ble society, and presents two new ndings rom these
roadmaps: Materials and energy eciency o automobi-
les, and high eciency heat pump systems. Finally, USA
has contributed by a General Position Paper2.
The climate plans include national scenarios or de-
velopment in, 2015, 2030 and 2050, in GHG emissions
(total and by sector), energy consumption, energy
supply and energy import and export. The main con-
clusions drawn rom the climate plans and the key
indicators are presented in Tables 1 and 2.
Participants in the Future Climate project indicate
that developed countries are able to reduce their
GHG emissions by 50-94%, with an average being
71% (see Table 1). India, being a developing country,
expects to increase GHG emissions, due to a high eco-
2. The engineering associations o Australia and Bulgaria
have not submitted climate plans.
nomic growth and a growing population. The project
likewise shows substantial energy savings o 30-50%
or the six countries who have projected data.
In our countries, Norway, UK, Sweden and Denmark,
renewables is the main energy sources, with biomass
being the generally primary source (see Table 2).
Wind, and hydro power do play major roles in the to-
tal energy supply, but only or a ew countries. In Ger-
many, Finland and Sweden nuclear power as a low
carbon energy source plays a major role, although the
Swedish plan projects a gradual phase out. Renewa-
ble energy sources such as wave, solar heat, geother-
mal and photovoltaics are expected to play minor
roles when compared with total energy supplies.
In general high carbon energy sources are radically
being substituted by low carbon, in particular coal,
which in 2050 is only expected to play a major role
in Germany and a smaller role in UK in combination
with carbon, capture and storage (CCS).
Biomass WindSolar
HeatHydro Wave
Geo-
thermal
Photo-
voltaicsWaste Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Other
Norway 11.5 7.5 49.5 7,5 1See
Biomass19 4
UK 11 33 2 1 9 4 3 8 8 21
Germany
scenario 114.5 5.5 0.5 1
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Executive summary
Key Common Findings
From the vast and rich variety o knowledge docu-
mented in the national climate plans, a number o de-
nominators, conclusions and recommendations have
been retrieved. Five Key Common Findings have been
selected as the most easible and adequate in order to
bring down GHG emissions.:
1. Only reliable GHG reduction targets will bring uson track.
2. The near-term GHG reduction needs can be
achieved with proven technologies, and promising
technologies exist to meet the mid and long term
needs .
3. Conditions must be stimulated or engineering
solutions to enhance technological innovations
globally.
4. Energy eciency is the easiest, smartest and most
inexpensive path towards substantial GHG reduc-
tions.
5. Clean transport calls or global action at multina-
tional corporate and government levels.
Climate Call rom Engineers or
a new global climate treaty
On the basis o the Key Common Findings ve main
recommendations or a new global climate treaty is
put orward by the engineers:
Commitment to binding but dierentiated targetsor all countries, ensuring that GHG emissions can
peak as soon as possible, and certainly beore 2020.
Commitment to developing national greenhouse
gas reduction plans towards 2050 beore 2012.
Setting-up an appropriate ramework
o joint technology development, with a
multi-aceted technological approach.
Strengthening nancial support to allowtranser o technology, which must be recep-
tive to a variety o relevant technologies.
Commitment to a common eort
in the area o transport.
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Future Climate Joint Report | 11
Engineering Solutions A Climate call rom engineers
1. Only reliable GHG reduction targets will bring us
on track.
2. The near-term GHG reduction needs can be achieved
with proven technologies, and promising technolo-
gies exist to meet the mid and long term needs.
3. Conditions must be stimulated or engineering solu-
tions to enhance technological innovations globally.
4. Energy eciency is the easiest, smartest and
most inexpensive path towards substantial GHG
reductions.
5. Clean transport calls or global action at multina-
tional corporate and government levels.
Key Common Findings
Through the numerous meetings and discussions held during the Future Climate project,
and rom the vast and rich variety o knowledge documented in the national climate plans,
a number o denominators, conclusions and recommendations have been retrieved. Among
this, 5 key common ndings have been selected as the most easible and adequate in order to
bring orward a common call or action rom engineers worldwide.
The 5 key common fndings o the Future Climate project are:
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Five key common fndings
Reliable targets
The Future Climate project has demonstrated that,
with available and known technologies, it is possible
to make substantial GHG reductions in the near and
the long term to meet the project target o an average
global temperature rise below 2C the
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Five key common fndings
Government targets and strategic sector policies
By its Climate Change Act o 2008, the UK is the only
country that has a long-term legally-binding rame-
work to help meet the
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Five key common fndings
Both market pull and technology push
Technology push targets, in order to drive a specic
technology or set a ramework rom technology ac-
tion programmes and road maps, are equally rel-
evant as market pull methods.
Conservative over-planning is a norm or engineers
and should be built into meeting targets in order
to be robust enough to withstand a high degree ouncertainty. For instance, the UK is putting some
emphasis on additional nuclear capacity which, i
not delivered on-time with the number o stations
required, would need to be compensated or by ad-
ditional capacity elsewhere or example rom coal
with carbon, capture and storage (CCS) technology.
CCS is still in the demonstration phase and may en-
counter implementation problems that means it will
not be able to meet the target as planned.
It is evident that the
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Future Climate Joint Report | 15
Five key common fndings
The power sector
In the power sector, besides lower power productionneeded due to electricity savings in industry and
buildings, near term GHG reductions can be achieved
mainly through substitution o high carbon power
technologies with more onshore and oshore wind,
biomass and geothermal energy. In the promising
line o technologies in the mid and long term low
carbon power generation are photovoltaic, wave
and tidal power, usion energy and carbon, capture
and storage (CCS). This must be supported by new
intelligent electricity grids and energy systems that
maximise the capacity to utilise fuctuating power
generation rom wind and photovoltaics.
The industry sector
The Future Climate project shows that there is a large
near term potential o up to 25% energy savings in the
industry sector with low pay back times. In general,
lean management o business processes has high en-
ergy savings potential. Most o the electricity savings
can be achieved through process optimisation, energy
ecient cooling, pumping, ventilation and compressed
air, already available on the market. The largest heat
consumption savings comes rom a shit to heat pumps,
and subsequently the diusion o a large number o
available technologies, e.g. introduction o enzymes,heat recovery, and insulation, and more ecient evap-
oration, drying and separation. Fossil uels can in the
near term be substituted with biomass and bio uels.
Buildings
A number o construction, heating and power tech-
nologies are commercially available to make new
buildings net-zero GHG emitters and signicantly
reduce the carbon emissions rom existing build-
ing stock, in both cases with economic benets. This
includes inter alia heat pumps, solar power, district
heating, ecient electrical appliances, pumps and
lighting, and an improved building envelope. In the
mid to long term buildings can become power gen-
erators and an integrated part o the electricity grid
through the introduction o improved photovoltaics.
Transportation
Even current diesel and gasoline combustion engine
technology would be able to meet strict CO2 emission
standards or land transportation. Hybrid vehicles,
and the introduction o low-carbon bio uels, urther
2. The near-term GHG reduction needs can be achieved
with proven technologies, and promising technologies
exist to meet the mid and long term needs
The climate plans o the Future Climate project clearly demonstrate that the
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Five key common fndings
enable immediate savings in emission o CO2. Inra-
structural instruments such as better urban plan-
ning, environmental zoning and better public trans-
portation are based on technologies already available.
Further development and commercialisation o elec-
trical vehicles over the medium term, including a low
carbon intelligent electricity grid, would radically
reduce CO2 emissions rom land transportation. Overthe medium term, high speed rail will be able to com-
pete with short-haul air transport. Both maritime
and aviation transport have immediate options or
substantial reductions o CO2 emissions. Technolo-
gies are available to improve uel eciency by use
o the ollowing: engine technology; lower riction;
change in route patterns; and shit to low carbon u-
els or both new and existing vessels and aircrat.
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Future Climate Joint Report | 17
Five key common fndings
Top-down technology strategies needed
Governments should thereore adopt top-down tech-
nology strategies or collaborative RD&D to ensure
that critical technologies arrive on time and withcoordinated unding. Technology roadmaps and in-
novation, or as wide a mix as possible o sustain-
able energy supply solutions, should be designed
and implemented. All available technologies help-
ing to reduce GHG emissions should be taken into
consideration, but with an energy-system based on
renewable solutions to as ar an extent as easible. In
coordination with this, a global technological und-
ing mechanism needs to be put in place in order to
secure reliable implementation and diusion o the
technologies.
Governments should, in general, be more ocused
on how major technological changes take place in
society, in order to be able to stimulate this properly.
Real technological change occurs in technological
innovation systems, in joint ventures with institutes
o knowledge, private companies, government insti-
tutions etc. that are embedded in a broad societal
structure.
Governments need to put in place stable, long-term
policy rameworks that ensure stable, long-term in-
vestment environments in which commercial organi-
sations can condently commit to investment in the
technologies and inrastructures required to meet
the targets. These rameworks, which include the -
nancial, legislative, regulatory and market tools thatgovernment uses to incentivise investments, need to
be committed to by all political parties to ensure they
do not change as elected governments change.
Stimulate clean technology
entrepreneurship and innovation
Innovative clean technology business environments
must be stimulated in order to create new local busi-
ness networks and economies. Entrepreneurship
should be promoted and cultivated by implementing
policies that remove or minimize the bureaucratic,
governance, educational, nancial and corporate
cultural barriers. Seed unds and other incentives or
local low-carbon technologies to develop and mature
should be implemented: or example, technologies or
energy eciency, small hydro power plants, biogas,
biomass production, photovoltaic, and geothermal
power.
Governments should encourage and support green
venture capital investments. Special attention should
be taken during economic turn-downs when private
investments tend to become less risk-oriented, and
3. Conditions must be stimulated or engineering solutions
to enhance technological innovation globally
Governments must place themselves in the oreront o stimulating the development o low-
carbon technology. A ramework or international cooperation to drive long-term techno-
logical change, assist in deploying existing technologies, and providing Research, Develop-
ment and Deployment (RD&D) opportunities or uture technologies, must be established.
This will drive the development o national and regional policies.
Technological innovation must be stimulated both through technology push and market pullmechanisms. Focus has primarily been on market push policies such as cap-and-trade, taxes,
and emissions-perormance standards. This is, however, not sucient to pull the develop-
ment through the innovation chain.
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Five key common fndings
investments in RD&D o new low-carbon technologies
can be set back. It is important that Governments are
prepared or these negative eects, and will have
mechanisms to both stimulate private investments
and channel public unds during these periods.
Web 2.0 low-carbon knowledge
development and diusion
New processes and policies to accelerate the inno-
vation chain fows must be developed. Increasingly,
solutions are coming rom diverse scientic and
engineering disciplines. To be most eective, these
new processes must be open to all, acilitated by the
Internet, as a Web 2.0 low-carbon model. It can be con-
tributed to rom all areas o expertise, and can be en-
hanced by interest groups and engineers. Transmis-
sion o technology rom government laboratories to
private industry must be also simplied, and a more
open fow o inormation across the corporate bar-riers must be promoted. In conjunction, intellectual
property rights (IPR) must be addressed, because
they can hinder the ree-fow o knowledge
The website Energibruket is an initiative to gather
engineers in Sweden or discussions and innovation
on this issue. The site oers a orum or technology-
oriented discussions under headlines like transport
and construction. It is also possible to have an idea
tested with support rom the expertise that has
been associated with Energibruket on issues such
as energy, environment, intellectual property rights
and commercialisation. Many ideas conceived by
engineers are never realised, since they are brought
orward in an environment where they are second-
ary to the core business. An initiative like this oers
an opportunity or such ideas to extend urther down
the line o innovation.
A coordinated eort to diuse technology to and in
developing countries must be ensured.Developing
countries must be an equal stakeholder in interna-
tional collaboration on RD&D, and must have equal
access to new technologies and technological inno-
vation environments. Knowledge-sharing and tech-
nology-transer are imperative in order or the de-
veloping countries to be able to adapt the new clean
technologies, without the need or them to undergo
(to a greater or a lesser degree) the same technologi-
cal evolution route taken by most industrialised
countries.
Emphasis and investment in educating and trainingthe workorce in all advanced energy technologies,
and their deployment, should increase. Sustainable
development and low carbon know-how must be in-
cluded in educational and training programmes as
permeating themes, and connected to the core know-
how in each eld o engineering specialisation. In
addition to basic education and training, urther edu-
cation and training must also be developed so that
the level o competence can be retained and updated
to meet arising needs.
Local condition and bottom up-approaches
The climate technology solutions and policies must
be adapted to local conditions, because one size does
not t all. An essential assumption when developing
international regulations and policies should be that
all countries and regions have dierent conditions
in terms o resources, level o technology, industrial
structure, social and cultural context, nancial capa-
bility, governance and regulatory history. GHG Cost
Abatement Curves and implementation schemes must
be developed to be as nationally-based as possible.
In conclusion, comprehensive top-down strategies
with bottom-up mind-sets and approaches are need-
ed or technological innovation. A global nancial, in-
stitutional and technological ramework on low-car-
bon technological development and diusion must
be established. It is imperative, though, that policy
makers and institutional developers understand that
innovation only occurs rom people to people, and not
through nancial fows or institutional procedures;
the latter are, however, necessary to stimulate inno-
vation and to develop and sustain a strategic ocus.
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Future Climate Joint Report | 19
Five key common fndings
Industry approach
Especially in the industry sector there is a need to
increase the awareness o energy savings through the
whole production chain, and the incentives to reduce
the payback times or energy investments. The indus-
try sector companies can be targeted at several levels:
Benchmarking and best practice
knowledge-sharing;
Certication o energy standards or certain
energy-intensive industry sectors, inclu-
ding compulsory external energy audits;
Implementation o industry GHG
emission standards;
Joint ventures between the leading business
companies o the sector and, or example,
scientic organisations, government in-
stitutions, and business associations;
Tax exemption incentives or the most ener-
gy-intensive companies against implemen-
tation o energy saving steps (this has been
done with success in Sweden), and/or
Energy-saving unds, including pub-
lic unds to support energy invest-
ments with longer payback time.
All companies with an annual uel and electricity
consumption above a certain level ought to perorm
an energy inspection and process integration study
at least once every three years, using external, quali-
ty-assured consultants.
For certain energy-intensive industries there should
be a commitment to global industry GHG emission
standards, especially in the most GHG-intensive
industries like power production rom coal plants,
cement industry, metal industry, and electronics/
household products (including end-use energy con-
sumption).
4. Energy efciency is the easiest, smartest and most
inexpensive path towards substantial GHG reductions
The Future Climate project, and many other studies, show that the world is wasting energy
and that a substantial part o the needed GHG reductions can be achieved by using the ener-
gy more wisely, through smarter usage and changing over to higher energy-ecient devices.
In all our main sectors, power, industry, building and transport, there are high energy e-
ciency poteIn several national reports it is assessed that up to 50% GHG reduction can be
met by energy eciency alone.
A Swedish report rom 2009 concludes that Swedens total energy consumption can be redu-
ced by almost 50% by means o control and new technology. Industrial processes need to be
optimised and automation increased, but within many elds a great potential lies in minor
changes o already-available technology. In the housing sector it is largely a matter o im-
proving the existing building stock, but to a large extent the technology is already at hand.
In Denmark the most protable energy savings are in industry. With payback times less than
7,5 years, energy consumption can be reduced by more than 25% beore 2015.
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Five key common fndings
The industry, particularly SMEs, lack both the skills
to identiy opportunities or energy eciency, and
the qualied personnel needed to implement and
ollow-up the eciency measures. Energy eciency
must be part o all technology development, so ener-
gy eciency know-how and knowledge-sharing must
be part o the expertise possessed by all engineers
and designers in the years to come.
Disposing o used products results in the loss o
all unctional value and embodied energy created
through materials processing and manuacturing.
Signicant energy benets can thereore be achieved
through reuse, re-manuacture, and recycling. In-
crease useul product-lie, and encourage lie exten-
sion and modularity o product components, by ena-
bling replacement o ailed components by products
with signicant levels o energy-intensive materials
and manuacturing. Nevertheless, oten new product
concepts and design, including replacement materials,are necessary or large energy and resource savings.
Consumer approach
The consumer energy labelling system in EU or
household products has proven very eective, and
can be expanded to more product groups and geo-
graphic areas than at present. Energy eciency, as
selection criterion during public procurements, can
also be strong drivers or product manuacturers to
ocus on energy-eciency or the end-user. Another
way o increasing the demand-driven change in prod-
uct energy eciency is by making customers and
end-consumers behave in a more climate-riendly
way in general through, or example, inormation and
awareness campaigns.
Energy-saving unds needed
Coordinated international and national energy-saving
unds should be established, with the objective o
promoting electricity and heat savings in households,
public areas and trade-and-industry by means o in-
ormation, advice and grants. The aim is a coordinated
and cost-eective energy savings input in all sectors.
Subsidies could be granted when binding agreements
on energy management are entered into with individ-
ual companies. The agreements could relate to specic
types o energy and processes and, i applicable, the
training o sta responsible or planning, purchasing
and operation o plants and systems.
Buildings can become net-zero GHG emitters
It is well known and documented by existing tech-
nologies, and with a net positive economy, that new
buildings can already become passive houses or net-
zero GHG emitters. Studies in Germany suggest that
energy use can be reduced by 50% or only a minimal
increase in construction cost. The U.S. Department o
Energy has estimated that by 2050, with advances in
building envelopes, equipment, and systems integra-
tion, it may be possible to achieve up to a 70% reduc-
tion in a buildings energy use, compared with the av-erage energy use in an equivalent building today.
Energy eciency in buildings can be augmented by
energy ecient architecture, highly-insulated build-
ing envelopes, and on-site energy technologies like
solar thermal systems or hot water and air condition-
ing, photovoltaics or distributed sources o renewable
uel combined heat and power. Stricter building codes
and regulations need to be developed to acilitate the
entry o innovative solutions in these areas.
Since the annual new construction in developed
countries is normally 1-3%, there is a need to look
at energy eciency in the existing building stock.
Here, promotion is needed by stepping-up consumer
inormation, providing training, tightening building
regulations and creating incentive schemes aimed at
consumers. Public authorities must show the way by
imposing special requirements on public buildings.
It is estimated that more than 50% o all new build-
ings globally are being constructed in China and In-
dia alone. This highlights the necessity o increased
policy and technological diusion, as mentioned.
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Five key common fndings
Reinvention o transportation
A signicant reduction in transportation CO2 emis-
sions means that all known tools and technologies
must be brought into play. Transportation must be
reinvented by increasing the diversity o energy
resources that supply transportation; displacing
petroleum consumption through increased system
eciency and use o lower carbon uel alternatives;
and reducing lie-cycle emissions associated withthe electrication o the transportation industry.
This calls or a coordinated strategic action in large
geographic regions, and in the transportation and
energy markets between governments and relevant
corporations.
In order to ully implement this change there is a
need or a multiaceted strategic ocus in the near-,
mid-and long-term perspectives. Advanced battery
and/or other energy storage-power systems or the
adoption o plug-in and electric vehicle technologies
must be developed and deployed. Bio uels should be
adopted in a cost-eective and environmentally re-
sponsible manner. Multiple potential energy carriers,
such as liquid and gaseous uels, and electricity, must
be made available. Lower carbon uels and propul-
sion alternatives across multiple modes o transport
must be utilised, and conventional propulsion sys-
tems must be optimised while developing advanced
propulsion technologies.
Mainly electrifcation o vehicles
Environmentally, electric engines are superior to
combustion propulsion. It has the advantage o zero
emissions (o any gaseous substance) rom zero-
carbon electricity supply and high energy eciency
o more than 90% compared with 20-30% or gasoline
engines and 30-40% or uel cell, hybrid vehicles and
diesel engines.
The ull low-carbon advantage o electricity as an
energy carrier requires low carbon or zero carbon
energy supply. This in turn requires signicant im-
provements to the present electricity grids world-
wide, including intelligent electricity consumption.
In Europe this could mean an integration o the grids
in Europe and North Arica to a smart Super Grid.
Plug-in electric cars and their advanced battery
technologies will enable two-way power fow o grid-
to-vehicle and vehicle-to-grid. The electric vehicles
become extra electricity storage, and thereby act as
a grid reinorcement unction, adding additional eco-
nomic value to vehicle battery systems. Other energy
storage will be o increasing importance to smooth
sustainable power generation, and pumped storage
projects oer a good solution.
A breakthrough or the commercialisation o electric
cars and plug-in hybrids depends upon the develop-
ment in battery technology, which needs development
in higher capacities, aster reload and lower costs. It will
be necessary to exempt electric vehicles rom taxes or
some years still. In the intermediate period beore ull
commercialisation, hybrid vehicles are an option.
5. Clean transportation calls or global action at
multinational corporate and government levels
The Future Climate project shows that the transport sector and its GHG emissions have
a more common structure o issues and solutions than any other sector. While the global
transportation volume will still increase, utmost and expensive eorts are required to in-
crease eciency, shit uels, and make a radical shit to electrical propulsion, especially or
smaller vehicles.
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Five key common fndings
Further development in the areas o other alterna-
tive uels, such as cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel,
is required to support energy diversity and where
electric propulsion is not (yet) an option. Any use o
bio uels must undergo careul lie cycle assessment
in order to justiy its level o sustainability, includ-
ing GHG reduction potential. Experience with imple-
mentation o alternative uels production policies do
show that tradeos will be inevitable. Comprehen-sive multi-dimensional analyses guide governmental
and industry policies and practices.
Private and/or public transportation
Managing GHG emissions across the transportation
industry will require the management o issues con-
cerning the balance between personal and reight
transportation, and public and/or mass transporta-
tion. Urban structure has a signicant impact on
trac, as well as on the need or energy and energyconsumption. Urban planning, to a high degree, de-
nes the volume o and need or trac. Energy and
trac considerations should be embodied in plan-
ning and assessment procedures. Urban planning
can be used in directing urban structure to be more
close-knit, and also the possibilities or implement-
ing public transport improvement. For example, new
residential areas should be centred around railway
stations and the location o large residential areas,
commerce and shopping acilities in the same local
neighbourhood will be supported. Furthermore, heat-
ing systems can be optimised, so that the dierent
heating orms wil l be used in ways that are most ap-
propriate in terms o overall economics and ecology.
Public transport can be promoted by investing in
the development o automated rail trac in dense-
ly-populated areas. Car-pooling can be promoted
as an alternative. Trac volumes and the energy
consumption o vehicles can be reduced by means
o vehicle taxes based on the distances driven. The
need or work-related commuting can be reduced by
promoting ICT opportunities. Data communications
solutions and available ICT services, including tele-conerence technology, can be applied to signicantly
reduce work travel miles.
Rail has the great advantage that it can be low-carbon
electrically-powered without any new technology.
Moreover, rail is competitive with heavy-vehicle
reight transport and public-short-haul air transport.
The rail network ought also to be developed and im-
proved so that it becomes a real alternative to the car.
Maritime and aviation transportation
Marine transport has a huge energy eciency poten-
tial and options or a shit towards more sustainable
uel. However it aces little or no restrictions on emis-
sions; thus global strategies and policies are needed to
create incentives to harvest these potentials.
The aviation industry can improve energy-eciency
through the use o improved engine and uselage
technology, or example, as well as redesigned fight
patterns to reduce long haul distances (and hence
the uel used to carry cargo). Ultimately bio uels rep-
resent the only technique available to signicantly
reduce aircrat emissions. A modal shit rom short-
haul air to high-speed rail is also desirable.
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Summaries o National Reports
From 7 to 18 December 2009, people rom all over
the world will convene at the United Nations Cli-
mate Change Conerence (COP-15) in Copenhagen,
Denmark, to create a new Global Climate Treaty, by
which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
A general de-carbonation o society calls or major
changes in technologies. A Treaty in Copenhagen
must support this. For this reason, the Associations
o Engineers in the Future Climate project are calling
or a ramework that will support energy savings,
use o existing low carbon technologies, innovation,
and transer o technology.
Engineering Solutions A Climate call from engineers
That global
GHG reductions
of 50 - 85% by 2050
is possible
A need for
appropriate
framework for
joint technology
development
is needed
Commitment
from all countries
to make GHG
reduction plans
to 2050
A substantial part
of GHG reductions
can be achived by
using energy more
wisely
Transnational and
intergovernmental
action in the
transport sector
is necessary
The engineers
emphasize
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Engineering Solutions A Climate call rom engineers
A new Climate Treaty
must include
Commitment to binding but dierenti-
ated targets or all countries, ensuring
that GHG emissions can peak as soon as
possible, and certainly beore 2020.
Commitment to developing national greenhousegas reduction plans towards 2050 beore 2012.
Setting-up an appropriate ramework
o joint technology development, with a
multi-aceted technological approach.
Strengthening nancial support to allow
transer o technology must be receptive
to a variety o relevant technologies.
Commitment to a common eort in the areao transport.
The engineers emphasize
That with available and known technologies it is
possible to make substantial GHG reductions over
the short- and the long-term, to meet the project
target o 50-85% average global reduction by 2050.
That binding targets on national and local
levels are essential to drive development to-
wards reduction o GHG. To achieve the neces-
sary emission reductions, all countries must
participate with national-based solutions.
Energy eciency is the easiest, smartest and
most inexpensive path towards substantial
GHG reductions. The world is wasting energy;
a substantial part o the needed GHG reduc-
tions can be achieved by wiser use o energy.
Binding targets must be supported by a national
commitment rom countries around the world,
to make GHG reduction plans up until 2050. Theplans should address the most polluting sectors
in the country (energy production and distri-
bution, energy eciency, deorestation, trans-
port). The plans should be nished beore 2012.
An appropriate ramework or international
cooperation should be established to encou-
rage long-term technological change, assist in
deploying existing technologies; and provide
RD&D opportunities or uture technologies.
This is needed in order to speed up the pace oinnovation, increase the scale o implemen-
tation, and make sure that all countries have
access to aordable climate technologies.
The transport sector has a more common struc-
ture o issues and solutions than any other sector.
This calls or transnational and intergovern-
mental action. A Climate Treaty should promote
common standards, energy eciency, and also
ensure that bio uels are being adopted in an env-
ironmentally-responsible manner. Emissions rom
international aviation and shipping are substan-
tial sources o emissions and should be addressed
within the ramework o a Copenhagen Treaty.
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Summaries o National Reports
Introduction
The core purpose o the Future Climate project has
been to demonstrate a technologically based outline
or a sustainable uture climate through national
climate plans and descriptions o specic promising
climate technologies.
The basic assumption o the project and o the na-tional reports is recognition that green house gas
emissions and their concentration in the atmosphere
must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project
denition o a sustainable level is equivalent to the
best case stabilisation scenario which were pre-
sented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
whereby the global mean temperature is most likely
to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 C.
In practical terms the assessment report states thatin order or this to happen the global GHG emissions
have to peak beore 2015 and the emissions in 2050
must be reduced by 50-85% compared to the emis-
sions o 2000.
The climate plans o the developed countries have
attempted to contribute to this sustainable target
range merely by making domestic reduction sce-
narios.
The climate plans include national scenarios or de-
velopment in, 2015, 2030 and 2050, in GHG emissions
(total and by sector), energy consumption, energy
supply and energy import and export.
Summaries o the 10 national reports3are presented
in the ollowing. The developments o GHG emissions
and energy consumption o these reports are sum-
marized in Table 3.
The ull national reports can be downloaded romThe Future Climate websitewww.utureclimate.ino .
3. The participating associations o Australia and Bulgaria
have not submitted national reports.
Summaries of National Reports
Development in GHG emissionsreductions by 2050 compared to 2007
Development in reduction o total energyconsumption by 2050 compared to 2007
Norway -76 % -30 %
UK -89 % -42 %
India (10% economicgrowth pa scenario)
+103% -
Germany (scenario 1/2/3) - 50 % / - 50 % / -63 % - 33 % / -29 %/ -19 %
Japan - 50 % -
US - -
Finland -74 % +12 %
Ireland -60 % -
Sweden No net emissions -30 %
Denmark -94 % -50 %
Table 3: Future Climate GHG emissions and energy reductions by 2050 or the 10 national climate plans
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Summaries o National Reports Norway
Targets
The Norwegian political ambition or GHG emissions is a
reduction o 30 percent prior to 2020 relative to the 1990
levels, and to be climate neutral by 2030. These targetsinclude the use o fexible mechanisms under the Kyoto
protocol, i.e. use o emission-quota trading, joint imple-
mentation, and the Clean Development Mechanism.
The NITO plan is based on a bottom-up perspect ive.
The purpose is to reduce the emissions o GHG to a
sustainable level, dened as the best case scenario
o IPCC, where the increase in global temperature
does not exceed 2C.
Measures
The NITO scenario or reductions in GHG emissions
rom our nearly equally-large sectors is based on:
Fossil energy production: In 2050 NITO pre-
dicts close to zero GHG emissions rom almost-
empty oil wells, and very limited emissions
rom production o natural gas. With renewable
on-shore electric power production it is pos-
sible to substantially reduce GHG emissions
rom production o ossil energy in 2050.
Industry: NITO estimates higher eciency or
Norwegian industry. For large industrial ac-
tivities as a result o new research Carbon
Capture and Storage is expected to reduceprocess-related GHG emissions by 50 %.
Transport: The national transport sector may
be almost independent o ossil uels by 2050,
with gradual increase in the use o electric
energy, new batteries and second generations
o bio-uels. Ships may increasingly use met-
hane as uel, and reduce emissions by new sail
technology. Optimising speed in relation to
goods with dierent urgency will reduce the
speed-related energy consumption o ships. The
emissions rom transport o goods may also
be reduced by transition to electric railway.
Heating, waste and agriculture: Heating, waste-
management and arming will gradually reduce
GHG emissions by 75 percent. The means by
which to do so are heat pumps, bio-energy, and
highly isolated buildings to reduce energy con-
sumption / increased energy eciency. Collec-
tion and ecient use o methane rom landlls
and deposits will also reduce GHG emissions.
Summary of The Climate Plan for Norway
Norway is a nation rich in both renewable and ossil energy. We have large hydropower re-
sources, and electricity accounts or almost 50 per cent o our energy consumption. Most
o our ossil energy is exported, and the utilisation o these resources does not count in the
national emission accounts. However, ossil energy used to produce oil, gasoline, diesel andnatural gas is included in the national accounts. Norwegian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
dened by the Kyoto regulations are 53 Mt CO2 equivalents per year.
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Main Findings
There is great potential over the short term, as well
as towards 2050, to reduce Norwegian GHG emis-
sions. Ecient technology is within reach, and can
be used or business development as well as or the
actual reductions in GHG emissions. In addition, Nor-
way has the potential or large electricity surpluses
that may be exported.
The measures mentioned above result in a scenario
allowing or a 74 percent reduction in domestic GHG
emissions4. Possible uture export o Norwegian
renewable energy arising rom new electric energy
production, and increased energy eciency, is not
included in the Kyoto regime. However, export o re-
newable energy has the potential to contribute to-
wards reduced emissions in the importing countries.
I GHG emissions reductions rom possible uture
export o renewable electric energy were taken into
account in the Norwegian scenario, this may implya possible reduction in Norwegian GHG emissions o
about 95 percent in 2050.
Recommendations
In general, NITO strongly emphasizes the importance
o supporting energy eciency in all sectors o soci-
ety. NITO also strongly advocates improving condi-
tions under which growth o renewable electricity
production may take place.
Fossil Energy Production
New production should, when technology per-
mits, take place rom subsea acilities.
New production should use electricity rom rene-
wable sources.
4. Excluding use o the fexible mechanisms under the Kyoto
protocol.
Industrial Sector
Hydropower and other renewable sources o
energy should be considered as an asset o
great value or uture industry in Norway.
The authorities should hire and educate
Energy Hunters, making them available
ree-o-charge or companies wanting to iden-tiy possible energy eciency projects.
Active energy management with certication
requirement should be mandatory or compa-
nies using more than 50 GWh annually.
Utilize the potential o surplus heat rom the
industry.
Transport
Norwegian industry must have the compe-
tence and production methods to meet the
needs o the new generation o cars.
The Plug-in Hybrid concept must be sup-
ported and given priority by the government.
Production o uel rom Norwegian renewable
biomass must be supported by the government.
The ship owners must be given incenti-
ves to extend their use o Methane.
New sail technology should be used to op-
timize speed and uel consumption, re-
lative to the weather, and the urgency
o the goods being transported.
Inrastructure must be built to accommodate e-
ective transer o heavy-duty transport rom
road, to electric railway and ship.
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Summaries o National Reports Norway
Heating, Waste and Agriculture
Norway must adapt and adhere to the
EU target o 20 percent increase in
energy eciency in buildings.
Renovation o old buildings, in accor-
dance with current standards, must
be increased by 4-to-5 times.
All new houses should be built with technology
or Passive Houses by 2020.
Heating systems in public buildings must be
changed to fexible systems that run on energy
rom dierent renewable sources by 2020.
Acknowledgements
With assistance rom the Institute o Transport Eco-
nomics (TI) and the Centre or International Climate
and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO), NITO
has made plans or engineering solutions in Norway.
The methodology is based on status, technologi-
cal ideas, calculation charts and graphics, used to
present sustainable climate scenarios up to 2050.
The Norwegian statistics or energy consumption,and gures or GHG emissions, are collected rom
Low Emission Commission, 2006 where CICERO per-
ormed the unction o secretariat.
NITO would like to thank Rol Hagman (TI) and Knut
H. Alsen (CICERO) or the assistance in making the
plans or engineering solutions in Norway.
NITO would also like to thank the Norwegian engi-
neers who contributed valuable knowledge and opin-
ions to the project, through surveys, dierent gath-erings and working groups.
The tools and calculation charts are being used by
NITO internally, and in the national public debate on
energy and climate.
Norway acts
Population (2008) 4.8 million
Area 324,000 km2
Total GHG emissions (2007) 45 Mt CO2eq.
Future Climate
GHG emissions proposal2015: 40Mt CO2eq.
2030: 25Mt CO2eq.
2050: 10Mt CO2eq.
National Targets 2020: 30% reduction
2050: carbon neutral
0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050
MtCO2-ekv.
Heating, waste and agriculture Transport
Industry Fossil energy production
Figure NITO-1: NITO scenario with 74 per cent domestic
reductions in GHG emission by 2050
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Summaries o National Reports United Kingdom
Targets
The UK national commitment in support o the Global
Objective o limiting the average global temperature
rise to within the guideline o 2C, is to reduce the
UK GHG emissions to 80% o the 1990 level o 779 Mt
CO2eq. by the year 2050.
The IMechE Future Climate report proposes that the
total UK primary energy supply is targeted to reduce
by at least 48% by 2050 (compared to 2006). The re-maining supply must move to zero-or-low-carbon
sources to achieve a proposed overall 89% reduction
in UK GHG emissions, relative to 2006. This equates
to a 90% reduction in UK GHG emissions relative to
1990 levels. It is so set to refect the degree o over-
planning and over-design necessary in risk manage-
ment to ensure that implementation is robust enough
to meet the project target o an 80% reduction. This
is an important aspect o our plan. A plan conceived
to exactly meet the target inherently carries the risk
that i one technology does not deliver on time, or at
the perormance that was anticipated, then the tar-
get will be missed.
Measures
The 48% reduction in primary energy
supply will be made by
Improvements in vehicle eciency and
a modal shit rom road and short-haul
air, to rail and sea, resulting in a 50% re-
duction in transport energy use.
Signicantly reducing (space) heating demand,
by using much improved thermal insulation and
much improved heating systems. Also, widespread
use o more ecient electrical devices, resul-
ting in a 50% reduction in building energy use.
Improving power generation eciency,
especially to capture both heat and po-
wer rom new-built acilities.
Reducing industrial demand in a continued
shit away rom heavy manuacturing, and ma-
king eciency improvements to reduce energy
consumption in the remaining sectors.
Changes in agriculture leading to less processing
and transport, with more emphasis on local supply.
Reductions in emissions will also be achieved by
Converting transport largely to electric vehicles,
reducing overall transport emissions by 90%.
Switching primary energy supply rom
91% ossil uel to 69% low-carbon or rene-
wable sources (oil and gas use is cut 90% by
2050, and coal use is more than halved).
Developing and using carbon capture and
storage (CCS) or all large-scale ossil-uel
power generation, and ossil-uel inten-
sive process plant, e.g. steel and cement.
Summary of National Reportfrom the Institution of MechanicalEngineers, UK
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Major investment will be required to improve
the electricity distribution grid, set up local
heating networks, and encourage new clean
energy sources. Increased water-pumped and
other electricity storage capacity will be needed
to cope with the inherently greater intermit-
tency o renewable sources. HVDC grid connec-
tions to other EU countries will be signicant
in allowing better management o the grid.
Main Findings and
Recommendations
The plan will require government placing and main-
taining stable long-term policies that create invest-
ment environments in which commercial organisations
can condently commit to invest in the technologies
and inrastructure necessary or meeting the target.
Training skilled people to ll newly-created jobs or
the new green economy will be a major issue requir-
ing national leadership.
Public engagement will be needed to help drive the
change in our eating, ood sourcing, heating and
transport expectations.
Key programmes o work are already underway in
the UK to enable some o the new technologies o
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Electric and Im-
proved Eciency Vehicles, and Smart Metering o
buildings but more initiatives are needed.
CCS, or some alternative technology to allow clean
coal power generation, may be the most crucial tech-
nology in achieving global GHG reduction. This is due
to the widespread availability and low cost o coal,
and its key position in generating energy in many
countries, including China, the USA and Germany.
EU passenger transport emission targets need to be
tightened overall, leading to a target 30 gm/km in 2050,
and emission targets also applying to Freight vehicles.
Greater use o local sea reight should be encouraged to
help to reduce emissions rom road reight transport.
International agreement on reducing power plant
sector emissions would be a major step in advancing
the international reduction o GHG emissions.
The reward is not only a climate under control, but
major business opportunities fowing rom the newtechnologies needed. In essence we need nothing short
o a second industrial revolution. The UK is extremely
well-placed to take advantage o this opportunity.
Acknowledgements
A large number o people rom both the IMechE and
other institutions have ormed a working group and
contributed to this Report. Ater initial Working Group
discussions, the report was assembled by the lead au-thor, Brian Cox, and then subjected to peer review by
other members o the team and by IMechE sta. We
would particularly like to thank Alison Cooke or her
enthusiasm in driving this project orward. Positive UK
Government thinking on Climate Change mitigation
has resulted in many useul documents, which have
been reerred to and acknowledged in the main report.
United Kingdom acts
Population (2008) 61.9 million
Area 244,820 km2
Total GHG emissions (2007) 630 Mt CO2eq.
Future Climate
GHG emissions proposal
2015: 570 Mt CO2eq.
2030: 257 Mt CO2eq.
2050: 75 Mt CO2eq.
National Targets 2020: 514 Mt CO2eq.
2050: 156 Mt CO2eq.
maximum
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Summaries o National Reports United Kingdom
Future Sources o UK Electricity Generation
GW output
capacity2006 2015 2030 2050
Net Imports 1 1 3 10
Hydropower 1 1 1 1
Geothermal 0 0 0 0
Biomass 2 2 9 12
Wind 1 7 27 40
Solar Heat 0 0 1 3
Waste 3 4 6 3
Wave andTidal
0 0 6 11
Photovoltaic 0 0 2 6
Nuclear 10 8 20 25
Coal 26 20 17 11
Gas (e) 50 50 13 5
Total 127
Coal and Gas CCS rom 2030
Imports include solar power rom abroad.
40
60
20
80
100
120
140
2006 20502015 2030
GW output capacity
Gas (e)
Coal
Nuclear
Photovoltaic
Wave and Tidal
Waste
Solar Heat
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Net Imports
0
Figure UK-2: Future Sources o UK Electricity Generation
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Summaries o National Reports India
Targets
India, being a developing country, has no binding tar-
gets under Kyoto Protocol.
Main fndings
A vision up to the year 2031 is provided by The Govern-
ment o India: thereore the authentic data up to 2031
is provided. Data or year 2050 is only an extrapolation
based on 2031 in BAU scenario. A comparative analysis
and key results, across all the scenarios, are presented
in summary. It also provides deeper insight into the
variations o the fnal energy and end-use consumption
mix, under alternative sets o assumptions.
This project ocuses on clean technologies so, thereore,
technologies or 4 selected sectors are listed:
Carbon dioxide or equivalent emissions rom selected
sectors or the year 2001, in millions o tonnes, are ap-
proximately:
1. Power : 789.00
2. Construc tion : 29.40
3. Transportation : 19.80
4. Agriculture : 32,8081.00
India is the second-largest populated country in the
world, and it is counted under top our emitters in the
world in absolute terms. However, per capita emissions
rank is 137th in world. Currently, globally, per capita
emission (PCE) is 4.48 tonnes CO2 equivalent per year.
Indias PCE is around 1.2 tonnes per year, while the av-
erage o the Annex-1 countries is 10 tonnes.
Energy efciency in all sectors is identifed as the best
approach and cost-efcient method or climate change
mitigation. Clean technologies in all selected sectors
that can be implemented at present or that are in the
R&D stage and will be available within the next few
years, are listed in the project.
Summary of the Climate Plan for India
The purpose o the project Technological Solutions and Climate Plan or India is to develop
the technology-based climate plan or India, to present the sustainable, clean/green tech-
nologies & measures, and the requirements or developing these technologies & measures.
This project also details the implementation o environmentally-riendly technologies in In-dia. The project includes the National Action Plan or Climate Change (NAPCC), and national
goals or climate change mitigation or adaptation.
Technological Solutions and Climate Plan or India is a project supported by The Institu-
tion o Engineers India (IEI), in partnership with The Danish Society o Engineers (IDA) Co-
penhagen, Denmark. Ten other Engineering Associations worked on Technological Solutions
and Climate Plan or their countries.
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The country hopes to continue its efforts to provide
electricity to rural areas, and to eliminate poverty.
The diagrammatic representation o the detailed
energy balance or BAU scenario in 2001 and 2031 is
provided through the Sankey diagrams.
Conclusions & Recommendations
India, being a developing country, does not have
any binding targets under Kyoto Protocol.
40% o the population does not have electri-
city connection, and about 300 million people
live in abject poverty: thereore, the provision
o ood is a priority, whereas implementation
o clean technologies takes a lesser position.
All the growth and development is based on
energy. India cannot cap the emissions, other-
wise its growth process will be crippled.
Coal (6233 PJ)
Coalforpower
Commercialenergysupply(11917PJ)
Nuclear (71 PJ)
Hydro and renewable (294 PJ)
Natural Gas (1049 PJ)
Oil (4240 PJ)
Industry(process and captive)
1296 PJ
Agriculture345 PJ
Commercial123 PJ Domestic
747 PJ
Industry(process and captive)
1325 PJ
Transport1385 PJ
Fuel and
oil losses316 PJ
Industry(process and captive)
651 PJ
Natural gas
Transport6 PJ
Conversion lossesin power generation
219 PJ
Transmission and distributionlosses of electricity
590 PJ
Agriculture303 PJ
Commercial165 PJ
Domestic287 PJ
Electricity consumption
Industry367 PJ
Transport32 PJ
Electricity
Coking coal forone reudction
837 PJ
Conversion lossesin power generation
1296 PJ
Figure India-1: Sankey diagram or the business-as-usual scenario (2001)
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India will continue its development as per the
current BAU status. Sustainable development
practices can be adopted or sectors, i.e. Power,
Construction, Transportation and Agriculture.
Major steps that can be implemented
or climate change mitigation in develo-
ping and developed countries are:
Use o energy-ecient techno-
logies and equipments
Use o clean & green technologies
Technology transer
Holistic approach or overall
development globally
Energy eciency is a measure that
can be implemented or all liestyles,
as well as in the industrial sector.
Additional nancial requirements may be met
by technology transer or und transer by
the developed countries. Technology trans-
er modulus operandi is still to be nalized.
Coal (49222 PJ)
Coalforpower
Commercialenergysupply(98879PJ)
Nuclear (534 PJ)
Hydro and renewable (1716 PJ)
Natural Gas (5693 PJ)
Oil (31714 PJ)
Industry(process and captive)
15758 PJ
Agriculture473 PJ
Commercial492 PJ Domestic
1778 PJ
Industry(process and captive)
7875 PJ
Transport18907 PJ
Fuel andoil losses2089 PJ
Industry(process and captive)
1287 PJ
Natural gas
Transport6 PJ
Conversion lossesin power generation
2037 PJ
Transmission and distribution
losses of electricity2834 PJ
Agriculture582 PJ
Commercial1395 PJ
Domestic3609 PJ
Electricity consumption
Industry4764 PJ
Transport389 PJ
Electricity
Coking coal forone reudction
5717 PJ
Conversion lossesin power generation
18760 PJ
Figure India-2: Sankey diagram or the business-as-usual scenario (2031)
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Global warming and climate change are global
concerns, and all countries need to work together
on these issues. Thereore a Holistic approach
or worldwide development should be taken into
consideration. Now the developed countries may
stabilize their development (i.e. emissions), while
supporting the developing and less-developed
countries to attain average living status.
India is committed to deviation rom the BAU
trajectories they have provided; this is sup-
ported and enabled by nancing, technology
and capacity-building by developed countries.
>85% reduction (rom 2000 levels) will pro-
vide a high probability o preventing a 2 degree
increase. A global eort is required or this,
and India is in agreement and is committed to
work towards climate change abatement. IPCC
4th
Assessment report also suggests 85% CO2and equivalent gases emission reduction.
Acknowledgements
Experts from Power, Construction, Transport and Ag-
riculture sector provided their expertise and recom-
mended the measures or sustainable development, and
ormulating the Climate Plan For India.
High level technical inputs and guidance provided by
Rear Admiral K.O. Thakre, President, IEI; Cdr A. K. Poo-
thia, Secretary and Director General, IEI; Dr. V. Baktha-
vatsalam, Honorary Chairman cum Visiting Professor,
Centre or Climate Change (CCC), ESCI; Dr. S. Nagabhush-
ana Rao, Director, ESCI; Shri Pradeep Chaturvedi, Chair-
man, Indian Association or the Advancement o Science
(IAAS) and Shri J.K. Mehata, GM, NTPC; Shri H.R.P. Yadav,
Dy. Director, IEI, during the development o this project.
Centre or Climate Change, ESCI, is thankul to all the
experts for their cooperation and immense support
provided during the project.
India acts
Population (2008) 1,028.7 million
Area 3,287,240 km2
Total GHG emissions (2007) 1,164 Mt CO2eq.
Future Climate GHG emissions proposal
High Economic Growth (10%) 2015: 1691 Mt CO2eq.
2030: 2561 Mt CO2eq.
2050: 3427 Mt CO2eq.
Low Economic Growth (6% ) 2015: 1546 Mt CO2eq.
2030: 2043 Mt CO2eq.
2050: 2755 Mt CO2eq.
Based on Prices 2015: 1612 Mt CO2eq.
2030: 2263 Mt CO2eq.
2050: 3187 Mt CO2eq.
National Targets India being a developing
country and do not have
any binding targets under
Kyoto Protocol.
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Targets
In this VDI study various scenarios were investigat-
ed, regarding which technical possibilities could be
used, and which measures should be taken to reduce
energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% (or even 75%)
rom 2005 up to 2050. The boundary conditions were
chosen by a VDI Committee rom reliable orecasts,
including modest economic growth and a slightly
decreasing population in Germany.
The ollowing technical opportunities by which to
reduce CO2-emissions in Germany today have been
identied:
Eciency measures reducing conversion los-
ses and nal energy consumption (FEC);
Use o locally available biomass in all sectors;
The use o wind and nuclear energy
in the generation o electricity.
Measures and Main Findings
Industry must, in all scenarios, lower its
FEC by 30%, despite a production increase
that will be 180% higher than at present.
Residential and commercial sectors have to re-
duce their ossil energy consumption by more
than 50%. This wi ll be achieved through bet-
ter insulation. The annual energy demand o
existing housing should be lowered to 60kWh/
sqm, which is about 1/3 o current demand.
While personal transportation will remain con-
stant, cargo wil l nearly double by 2050. Never-
theless, transportations FEC has to be reducedby 15%. The CO2 emission o car feets must
be reduced below the 120g/km threshold.
Cost-attractive solutions have to be develo-
ped in order to increase the share o bio uel
and electrical energy or cars, such as 2nd
generation bio uel and battery systems
No signicant reduction in power consumption
is to be expected, despite high saving poten-
tials in industrial drives and household app-
liances. However, nearly all energy eciency
eorts lead to higher power consumption.
The fuctuating input o growing, renewable
power such as wind and photovoltaic has to be
balanced within the EU grid by reliable power
sources such as biomass, ossil and nuclear po-
wer stations. This must also be supported by
storage systems and demand management.
Summary of the VDI Report for Germany
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Recommendations
The huge challenge o GHG reduction, wit-
hout energy shortage, can only be achieved
during the coming decades by better tech-
nologies and improved engineering soluti-
ons. It requires that all available technolo-
gies supporting this objective in energy sup-
ply and use have to be developed urther.
With the technologies available today, the
cost o CO2 reduction rise very strongly bey-
ond 50%. The VDI thereore recommends to
strongly subsidize energy research, in order to
widen the eld o available technologies, the-
reby battling the expected cost increase.
Subsidizing development and market intro-
duction o new technologies is advocated, but
this should not turn into a continuous sub-sidy o supply, burdening the economy
Measures to minimize the demand or trans-
portation should be investigated, and
how to substitute road transport and lo-
cal air transport with rail transport.
The eorts o GHG reduction must be conside-
red, together with the objectives o security, the
economics o energy supply, environmental and
social compatibility, as well as securing a com-
petitive economy and job situation. Migration
o production is not a viable global solution.
A reduction o GHG emissions beyond 50% can
not be achieved without nuclear energy. The-
reore the present nuclear capacity has to be
maintained. Between 2015 and 2020 decision
can be made about whether building new reac-
tors is needed or whether nuclear power can
be substituted by regenerative sources.
Results o the climatologic research have to
be validated continuously to provide a so-
lid base or ongoing political decisions.
GHG Reduction has to be optimized across borders;
nancial means have to be directed to those coun-
tries where maximum eects can be achieved.
Acknowledgements
This project was elaborated by a VDI committee with
support o the Institute o Energy Research at Jlich
Research Centre.
Thank s are given also to the management o the VDI
e.V. or nancially supporting this project.
Germany acts
Population (2008) 82.1 million
Area 357,104 km2
Total GHG emissions (2007) 826 Mt CO2eq.
Future ClimateGHG emissions proposal
2015: 6701-750 Mt CO2eq.
2030:4341-600 Mt CO2eq.
2050:2711-400 Mt CO2eq.
Achievable percentages2 2015: 9% - 19%1
2030: 27% - 47%1
2050: 52% - 67%1
1) Values or nuclear power extension2)Basis 826 Mt/a (2005)
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Targets
The most essential principle in engineering solutions
and recommendations or UN COP 15 would be to do
our best to reduce the emission o carbon dioxide, not
only in Japan but also all over the world. We should
concentrate all our eorts on research to realize
challenging energy technologies; the development
and the wide application o high eciency energy
systems; and the estimation and evaluation o u-
ture improvement o energy eciencies and emerg-ing technologies. Consequently, producing various
kinds o promising energy technologies; innovative
improvement in the energy eciency o the various
energy systems; and reliable estimation o the nan-
cial payback period o energy systems would be our
oremost targets by which to accelerate the preven-
tion eect or global warming.
Measures
In our role as the Academic and Engineering Society
o JSME, we should stress the ollowing important
activities:
To evaluate the technological innovation correctly
in the near uture, we should continue to produce
engineering technological roadmaps (JSME Tech-
nology Roadmaps or Sustainable Society) and
disseminate them all over the world, to promote
the necessary researches o challenging energy
technology, to promote quantitative discussions
o energy usage and CO2 emissions, and to acce-
lerate the prevention eect or global warming.
We should produce the quantitative engine-
ering data o energy usage and CO2 emission
and promote the discussion about the impor-
tance o various activities o our daily lie and
various kinds o engineering industries.
We should produce various kinds o quantitative
estimations, such as economical payback period
o energy technologies; quantitative CO2 emis-
sion reduction; and the amount o energy savingand necessary total budget o energy policy.
Hence, we should contribute to reducing the amount
o energy usage and the CO2 emission as much as
possible. We can do this by disseminating the JSME
Technology Roadmap or Sustainable Society and re-
lated engineering data and economical estimations,
which would be extremely useul measures to provi-
de the engineering solutions and recommendations.
New fndings
The systematic organization o JSME Technology
Roadmaps or Sustainable Society has been produced
over several years by various engineering divisions
o JSME.
Two good results have been obtained in the discus-
sions by combining several technological roadmaps
as the new ndings.
The Strategy of Japan Societyof Mechanical Engineers (JSME)
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Energy Usage and CO2 Emission Reduction or
Automobiles
According to the JSME Technology Roadmaps,
there would be several improvement actors
or the reduction o CO2. Fig.1 shows the specic
strength o materials, and new materials such as
Aramic ber would be useul to reduce the weight
o automobiles. As shown in Fig.2, the thermal e-
ciency o engines has been increased gradually
by many kinds o technological breakthroughs.
Furthermore, the average travelling speed has
been increased by improving trac-control tech-
nology. The total potential amount o CO2 reduc-
tion would be 100Mt/year, and the most eective
method would be increasing the speed o travel.
Energy-Saving or Air-conditioning and Hot Water
Supply, by Utilizing High Eciency Heat Pump
Systems. Fig.3 shows the roadmap o heat pump
hot water supply systems, which demonstrates
that the COP o supplying hot water would have
the value o 5 or higher. By considering the e-
ciency o about 40% o electric power generation,
over twice the total heat released by combustion
could be used or heating and hot water supply, by
utilizing high eciency heat pumps. Thus, the use
o high eciency compression heat pump systems
would be eective or reducing the CO2 emis-
sion. The CO2 reduction potential to replace the
boiler, heater and absorption heat pumps would
become the order o 200Mt/year. This value would
be over 10% o the total CO2 emissions in Japan.
0
20
0
33
43
83
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
120
125
Specifik strenght relative to steel Weight reduction relative to pitch type carbon fibers (%)
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Titanium alloy Super duralumin
Alumine fiber
Polyester resin
Glass fiber
Boron fiber
Pitchtype carbon fiber
Arambi fiberPAN carbon fiber
Nylon fiber
Magnesium alloyMaragi
ngsteel
Carbon nanotube
SteelHigh strength steel
Figure JSME-1: JSME Technological Roadmap or Specifc Strength o Materials
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Recommendations
Our role would be to do our best to promote energy
saving, and reduce CO2 emissions, and thereore we
recommend the ollowing:
By utilizing our engineering specialty we
should produce reliable technology roadmaps
or estimating the uture technological per-ormance; or selecting the uture energy and
environmental policy; and or accelerating
the prevention eect or global warming.
By presenting comprehensible engineering data o
energy usage and CO2 emission in public, we should
promote the quantitative discussion or accele-
rating the reduction o the CO2 emission, which
would assure enjoyable daily activities o mem-
bers o our global community also in the uture.
Japan acts
Population (2008) 127.8 million
Area 377,923 km2
Total GHG emissions (2007) 1,371 Mt CO2eq.
Future Climate
GHG emissions proposal
2050: 50%
compared with 2007
Figure JSME-2: JSME Technological Roadmap or
Thermal Efciency o Engines
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1970
Gasoline engines for passenger cars
Diesel engines for passenger cars
2010 2030 2050
Steel pistonfrom aluminummaterial
Hybridgasoline car
High pressure injectionTurbocharging cooled
EGE diesel
Reseach and actualisation ofmechanical, electric and chemical
technology of generating andrecovering thermal and kinetic energy
High precision combustion technologyand emmision control technology
Use of bio fuel
Exhaust catalystfor diesel enginesParticulate traps
Clean NOx catalyst
Engine thermal efficiency (%)
TechnicalBreakthrough
Large diesel engines for vehicles
Improvement of
0.15 points / yr
Prediction
TDIdiesel
Directinjectiondiesel
Turbo-intercooler (TI)
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3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2010
GDP of heat pump unit*
APF (Annual Performance Factor)of hot water supply system
2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy Consumption Efficiency
Technical breakthrough
2007~2010
Development o CO2 rerigerant Heat Pump WaterHeater
4 High-eciency ejector cycles
5Optimum design o high-eciency Small-size DCmotors
6 SiC power dev ic es
9 Vacum heat insulators
13 Utilization o underground heat
2010~2020
1 High-eciency rerigerant circuit design technology
6 High-eciency matrix converter
12 Exhaust heat recovery
10 Load orecast control
13 Using solar heat panels together
1 Advanced rerigerant control technology
2 Further size reduction using surace tension
3 Micro-channel type heat exchangers
4 Power