Future is Food Global Grain and Feed Forum 19 th June 2015 -
Rajnikant Rai
Slide 2
Changing Demography: Increasing Middle Class Matches the
current Chinese population A growing population and more than 1.4
Billion Indians to feed by 2025 Growth coming in Urban areas with
the rise of the Middle Class By 2025, Urban share of population
will increase to 37% (523 Mln) from (31.16% (377 Mln) as per 2011
census) Today, 43% of private spending is from Urban areas -
expected to reach 60-62% of Indias total consumption expenditure by
2025 Source: McKinsey, NCAER
Slide 3
Changing Demography: Increasing Middle Class Deprived Segment
will drop from 32% to 22% by 2025 Average real household disposable
income expected to grow 3 times from Rs. 1.10 Lakh currently to
about Rs. 3.2 Lakh by 2025 The country's middle class (Rs 2-10 lakh
income per annum) will grow from 16% to 46% by 2025. India will
become the Worlds 5 th Largest Consumer Market by 2025 Aggregate
consumption in India will grow in real terms from Rs. 34 Lakh Crore
to Rs. 70 Lakh Crore by 2025 Source: McKinsey
Slide 4
A change from Pyramid to Sparkling Diamond During next decade,
over 870 million of Indias population will have household income
between Rs. 1.5 to Rs. 8.5 lakh per annum Between 2010 and 2020 the
expense on Food consumption will increase by 2.7 times from Rs.
16,20,000 Crore to Rs. 43,74,000 Crore Euromonitor BCG India
Consumer Survey 2010 Globals Strivers Seekers Aspirers Deprived 1%
2% 12% 45% 40% 2010 4% 12% 34% 33% 18% 2025 Households by Income
Category No. of households - in Million 2 4 25 98 87 Source-
National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
Slide 5
What are the likely growth drivers? 1 2 3
Slide 6
1. Changing Consumer Trends
Slide 7
THE INDIAN FOOD JOURNEY The 60s-70s: The humble ROTI signified
the Basic Survival Level Need For the ROTI (survival) heroes were
driven to crime, mothers turned into make do saints, spunky modern
girls entered the kitchen to be schooled in gender roles by lower
class men The meanings of food have undergone a sea change in India
the past two decades Food was earlier a symbol of basic survival
ROTI KAPDA MAKAAN India was striving for Food Self- Sufficiency -
Green Revolution It was considered enough to have the basics, small
treats occasionally, from the Halwai or Pakoda Wala Street food
could signify - mischief, childhood, innocent fun, adventure
Slide 8
THE INDIAN FOOD JOURNEY The 80s : A new popular culture of food
emerged Images of the good life from the world over flooded into
India through the media for two decades Travel and the ability to
sample other cultures and foods, became a symbol of affluent
Indians growing global power The affluent section got the
opportunity to have exposure to the FAST FOOD CULTURE of West
allowing the crafting of a new cosmopolitan
Slide 9
THE INDIAN FOOD JOURNEY End of 20 th Century: Hectic work
schedules and an accelerated pace of life meant that food was often
consumed for stress-busting, comfort, convenience, energy With
rising incomes, shift towards protein-rich diet and dairy products
was visible Emergence of supermarkets and fast-food chains started
in India since mid-1990s Healthy eating started becoming a new
aspirational space co-existing with guilty pleasures and
indulgence
Slide 10
THE INDIAN FOOD JOURNEY The 21 st Century Food Trends Changing
lifestyles and hectic work schedules further spawned a large market
for processed, packaged convenience foods and Quick Service
Restaturants- McD, KFC, Pizza chains Eating Out in groups A trend
Group eating Experiencing new food sensations Sharing experiences
on social media Online food ordering Growing category of informed
buyers shifting towards healthier lifestyles and food habits
Emerging Food Segments- Health, Convenience, Taste/ New Experience
and Indulgence
Slide 11
To sum up - 4 broad Consumer trends emergingfuelling growth in
this segment! Health & Wellness Convenience seeking Seeking
newer experiences Indulgence Rising fast paced lifestyle forcing
consumers to seek convenience Ready meals volume grew by 36% (in
2014). Growing globalization leading to consumers aspiring to try
the new! Rising Incidence of Lifestyle Diseases Driving Consumers
To Healthier Foods - CAGR of 17% in food categories like Dairy,
Oils and fats, Ready meals, Snacks, Break-fast foods Consumers
willing to spend on indulgence! Impulse and indulgence products
current value sales increased by- 18% in 2014 to reach Rs. 607
billion *Industry estimates from Euromonitor, 2014
Slide 12
Also there are a lot of evident sub trends which are getting
capitalized upon! Convenience plus Guilt free indulgence
Slide 13
2. Conversion led growth (Unbranded to Branded)
Slide 14
With growing environmental factors and quality consciousness
towards foods there is a trend of movement towards Branded products
There is a huge headroom for growth in the various categories
largely through the benefits routes provided in these spaces
Unbranded segment in the foods space is huge CategoryBranded to
Unbranded Ratio Atta34% Edible Oils55% Ghee41% Pulses