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Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Michel VIAUDGeneral Secretary
PV industry needs
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
ConsumerOff-Grid Industrial
On-Grid
Economically viable
Dependant on market support
programs
Off-Grid Residential
Market Segments
Source: Strategies Unlimited
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Market projections
Different World PV Market Projections
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ins
tall
ed
MW
p p
er
ye
ar
Sarasin Studie 2004, CellProduction
EPIA Roadmap 10.2004
Strategies Unlimited 06.2004
Solarbuzz 2005
CLSA 07.2004
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
[%]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 marine
2 geothermal
3 biomass
4 hydro
5 wind
6 solar thermal
7 PV solar
electricity
100 % RES 29,808 TWh (≡ 80 % of total)
Total electricity consumption 36,346 TWh (from 15,578 TWh in 2001, IEA)
Source: Own estimates together with "advanced scenario" according to EREC
Contribution of PV Solar Electricity to Global Electricity Production in 2040
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Specific Production equipment investment [€/W]
1,5 ... 2 1 ... 1,5 0,7 ... 1
Investments per year [bio€]
0,5 ... 1
2 ... 6
10 ... 30
300 GW/Year@ 2030
0,1
1
10
100
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030Year
GW
/Year
30 % p.a.
25 % p.a.
10 Mrd€(20 Mrd€)
80 Mrd€(160 Mrd€)
250 Mrd€(500 Mrd€)
PV market increase and necessary investments in production equipment
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
1
2
3
2020+
2010+
Module Efficiency [%]
2000+
a-Si-pin/pin
a-Si/µc-Si
II-VI
dye a-Si-pinII-VI
r
r
mc
mc
Cz
Cz
Mod
ule
Pric
e / W
p [re
l. un
its]
Technology evolution
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
PV Catapult Coordination Action (CA)
(EC project – DG Research – FP6)1. State-of-the Art and SWOT analysis
2. Crystallising the fruits of the European RTD + D efforts (Dialogue between R&D and Industry communities EUREC-EPIA)
3. Engaging the construction Industry in PV4. Socio-economic and financial issues
5. Opportunities, Perspectives, Potentials and Hurdles in the enlarged EU market
6. Emerging Economies and economies in developing countries
7. Cross fertilization
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
RTD Targets generic 20% Learning Rate
Module price < 2 €/Wp 2010 (ST)
< 0.9 €/Wp 2020 (MT)
< 0.5 €/Wp 2030 (LT)
1 materials cost < 2 efficiency > 3 production cost < (throughput , yield, equipment cost)
RTD targets
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
RTD Targets generic 20% Learning Rate (kWh)
System price < 3 €/Wp 2010 (ST) 5 kWp
< 1.5 €/Wp 2020 (MT)
< 1 €/Wp 2030 (LT)
1 Reliability, lifetime > 2 Labour, components cost < 3 Value > (applicability >, environmental impact <)
RTD targets
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
RTD Technology specific targets
Crystalline Silicon
• Solar Grade Silicon 20 €/kg ST
• WafersReduction of Silicon content 16 → 10 g/Wp ST
10 → 7 g/Wp MT
• Solar Cells Cell efficiency > + 4% abs 20-22% Mono 18-20% Multi ST
+ 6% abs 22-24% Mono 20-22% Multi MT
• Modules Life expectancy 35 years STInterconnect and encapsulation technology ST
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
RTD Technology specific targets
Thin Film Solar Modules
• Scaling up: Yield, throughput (area costs) • Module efficiency > 8 – 10% ST
(1 m2) 14% MT20%LT
• TCO cost <• Low-cost substrates (e.g flexible)• Modules
Life expectancy 25 years ST 35 years
MT
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
RTD Technology specific targets
Novel Cell Concepts• Dye Sensitised Cells Proof-of-Commercial Concept
ST
Polymer/Organic ,, MT
Life expectancy 5-10 years ST10-20 years
MT
Module efficiency > 4- 6% ST (> 0.1 m2) 10%
MT15% LT
Markets: consumer ST power LT
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
RTD Technology specific targets
Systems
• General StandardizationStorage cost-effective
environmental benign (eg H2)
• On-gridInverter (kW) Life expectancy 20 years ST
Price < 0.35 €/Wp ST
BIPV Module as standard building element ST
• Off-grid 0.20 €/kWh (battery, extracted) ST0.15 €/kWh
MT
• Concentrators Low-cost lens and tracking systemsMT
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
PV Catapult Coordination Action (CA)
(EC project – DG Research – FP6)1. State-of-the Art and SWOT analysis
2. Crystallising the fruits of the European RTD + D efforts (Dialogue between R&D and Industry communities)
3. Engaging the construction Industry in PV
4. Socio-economic and financial issues 5. Opportunities, Perspectives, Potentials and
Hurdles in the enlarged EU market6. Emerging Economies and economies in developing
countries
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
BIPV characteristics
• (Potentially) low BOS costs• (In principle) best use of existing
mounting and grid infrastructure• (Without subsidy influence) best
value of electricity is at the point of use
• Integration with Home Energy System
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Statement of the BIPV in the EU
• Lack of European strategy for BIPV development
• Lack of effective common research between Building and PV institutes
• Concern all the PV technologies• The largest potential for PV
applications
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Changes in Landscape
Need for European (BIPV) RTD Strategy
• EU PV Program
• European Coherency and Coordination with MS
• Maturing industry
• “Planning” projects
• Close collaboration between research – industry- construction sector
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
PV Catapult Coordination Action (CA)
(EC project – DG Research – FP6)1. State-of-the Art and SWOT analysis
2. Crystallising the fruits of the European RTD + D efforts (Dialogue between R&D and Industry communities EUREC-EPIA)
3. Engaging the construction Industry in PV4. Socio-economic and financial issues
5. Opportunities, Perspectives, Potentials and Hurdles in the enlarged EU market
6. Emerging Economies and economies in developing countries
7. Cross fertilization
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Recommendations
- Establish strategy for BIPV (Research infrastructures in R&D policy ?) between the Building (R&D and Industry) and the PV (R&D and Industry) communities
- Support manufacturers of building components
- Reinforce cooperation between architects, construction sector, PV developers, etc.
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Process of setting strategy
Industry Community
R&D Community
DiscussSet
Priorities
Berlin (R&D) Paris (R&D+BIPV) Brussels (R&D) Nice (BIPV)
Jan. 04 Jun. 04 Nov. 04 May 05
Provide first results
to the PV Platform
End 2005
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
EU PV Technology Platform
National Programmes Mirror Group
Steering Committee PV Secretariat
Policy&
InstrumentsGroup
Developing Countries Group
Information,Promotion,
Education & Market Deployment Group
BIPV
Science, Technology & Application
Group
ResearchInfrastructures ?
Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels
Thank you for your attention !