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FUTURE OF THE MIDLAND MAIN LINEThe Case for the Upgrade and Electrification of the Midland Main Line and a link to HS2
City Region
S H E F F I E L DS H E F F I E L D
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CHAPTER 1.0
INTRODUCTION AND MAIN FINDINGS
Introduction
This report by Arup with Volterra sets out the main benefits that
would be generated by connecting the Midland Main Line (MML)
to the proposed new high speed rail route (High Speed 2, HS2)
via the Birmingham to Derby Line.
Upgrading and electrifying the Midland Main Line is the
immediate priority for the East Midlands and Sheffield City
Region. Over the longer term there is a strong case for
developing a High Speed Rail network that links London to the
Three Cities and on to the Sheffield City Region, and beyond to
the Leeds City Region and the North East. The development of
a High Speed Rail network and the upgrade and electrification
of the Midland Main Line are not mutually exclusive options;
together they can form a coherent long term strategy for the
development of the rail network serving the eastern side of
England.
A direct dedicated route to the East Midlands and the Sheffield
City Region is unlikely to be in the first phase of the developmentof a national high speed network. An interim solution could be
to enable High Speed Rail services to access the Three Cities
and Sheffield by running on the proposed first phase of the
network between London and the West Midlands, and then at
conventional speeds on the upgraded and electrified Midland
Main Line.
HS2 will connect London to the West Midlands, significantly
reducing journey times, and this could offer benefits for other
areas too. In order to be connected to HS2, the Midland Main
Line would need to be electrified and upgraded, points which
are discussed in a separate report 1. Furthermore, part of the
Birmingham to Derby Line would also need electrifying and
a junction to link HS2 to the Birmingham to Derby Line. This
would enable high speed services from London, and potentially
Heathrow, to serve the Three Cities area (Derby, Leicester and
Nottingham) and Sheffield. These trains would run from London
towards the West Midlands using a dedicated alignment at
speeds up to 200 mph. Trains would then join the existing
Birmingham to Derby Line and the MML (assuming they have
been upgraded and electrified) and run at speeds up to 125 mph
to Sheffield.
Main Findings
There would be significant benefits from connecting HS2 to the
MML and running high speed rail services from London to the
Three Cities and Sheffield.
Journey time savings• . A link between the upgraded and
electrified MML and HS2 could deliver further journey time
savings (in addition to those delivered through MML upgrade
and electrification) of around 17 minutes between London
and Derby / Sheffield. This would bring these places within
an easier days travel to London for business travellers.Significantly this would bring Sheffield easily within the
economically important threshold of two hours to London.
Capacity relief on existing lines.• A link to HS2 could free
up capacity on the existing line to enable additional local
services to be introduced as demand grows. This will be of
particular benefit to intermediate locations closer to London
which may not be directly served by a High Speed line, but
would experience an increased service frequency via the
MML, enabling more people to access higher value jobs.
There would also be greater capacity on the line for freight
services.
Boosting the economic performance of the Sheffield City •
Region and the Three Cities areas as well as London. A
High Speed link would dramatically reduce journey times to
London from the Sheffield City Region and the Three Cities.
This would help to improve the strategic connectivity of these
areas. For example, it could play a pivotal role connecting
the creative and digital industries and the advanced
manufacturing sector in the Sheffield City Region to London
and European markets. In addition to substantial standard
transport user benefits, the MML-HS2 link could deliver
productivity gains of around £75 million per annum, or a 60
year Net Present Value of £2.2-3.2 billion, in 2002 prices.
Enhancing the image and profile of Sheffield and the•
Three Cities. Providing access to the High Speed network
and electrifying the MML will enhance the profile and the
image of the main towns and cities on the line, increasing
their attractiveness as locations in which to do business and
invest.
Access to the international gateway of Heathrow.• A
High Speed link could provide direct access to Heathrow
and Crossrail, providing a step-change in the international
connectivity of the Three Cities and Sheffield City Region.
Establishing the principle of a High Speed route to the•
East Midlands, Yorkshire and North East. By linking up to
HS2 there is a precedent set to extend over the longer term
the High Speed network to the Three Cities, Sheffield City
Region and beyond.
1See, The Case for the Upgrade and Electrification of the Midland Main Line, South Yorkshire
Passenger Transport Executive and East Midlands Development Agency
St Pancras Station
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CHAPTER 2.0
ENGINEERING ISSUES
Introduction
Electrification and line speed improvements to the MML could
reduce journey times between London and Sheffield. The
conservative estimate of journey time savings is around 12
minutes. However, the scope to deliver further journey time
savings on the Midland Main Line in a way that offers good value
for money is limited. Consequently, alternative ideas and optionsare needed. This section considers the engineering feasibility of
a connection to the proposed High Speed Rail network, possibly
in the Tamworth area. There are also a number of operational
issues which would need to be addressed.
Context
SYPTE and emda have commissioned Arup with Volterra
to review the potential benefits that could be delivered from
electrification of the MML and part of the Birmingham to Derby
Line, plus a connection to the proposed High Speed Rail
network. This could be a relatively low cost way to spread the
benefits and is being actively considered by HS2. Arup hasexamined the potential journey time reductions that could be
delivered for the MML. A package of line speed improvements
set out in Network Rail’s Business Plan for Control Period 4
(2009-2014) could reduce journey times by around eight minutes
between London and Sheffield. Electrification could reduce
timings by an additional three to four minutes. Based on the
current journey times, these improvements could reduce London
to Sheffield timings to around 116 minutes. These improvements
would generate substantial financial and economic benefits, and
these would exceed the capital costs. Therefore, the package
represents very good value for money.
Once the planned upgrades and the suggested electrification
of the line have been delivered, new methods to reduce journey
times that offer good value for money will be needed. Network
Rail, in conjunction with other stakeholders, has examined
the feasibility of delivering more comprehensive infrastructure
schemes. The scope for introducing tilting electric trains, (similar
to the Class 390 Pendolinos deployed on the West Coast Main
Line), to reduce journey t imes was also examined. However,
these studies failed to demonstrate a sufficient level of benefits
to make them worthwhile. As a result, alternative ideas and
options are needed to achieve further reductions in journey times
between Sheffield and London.
High Speed 1, Temple Mills Depot © Daniel Clements
Sheffield Station
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There are similar timetabling issues between Derby and Sheffield.
The relatively high service frequencies, different operating
speeds and stopping patterns affect capacity, particularly on the
approach to Sheffield station. The fastest current journey time
between Derby and Sheffield is about 30-34 minutes, and there
will be a need to ensure these timings can also be achieved
for the High Speed services. In particular, the capacity issues
between Dore and Sheffield will need to be carefully addressed.
The delivery of improvements at Dore Junction during Control
Period 5 of Network Rail’s Business Plan will help to alleviate
some of these constraints.
Engineering and Operational Feasibility
Engineering Issues
A new connection from HS2 onto the Birmingham to Derby
Line - possibly in the Tamworth area - could deliver additional
journey time benefits for both the Three Cities and Sheffield.
The High Speed Rail development company established by the
Government (HS2 Ltd) is considering the scope for extending
High Speed services beyond the West Midlands using other
High Speed alignments or existing “classic” rail lines. Such a
connection would need to be designed to help minimise theoverall journey times and address possible capacity constraints
which could affect trains using either route.
This approach has been adopted elsewhere, for instance in
France, where High Speed TGV services run on dedicated High
Speed lines, and then continue at lower speeds on conventional
rail routes shared with other (non High Speed) services.
Operational Considerations
It is understood HS2 will be able to accommodate up to 15
trains per hour (tph) in each direction. This, along with services
diverted from the existing WCML route could provide ample
space in the timetable scope for hourly High Speed services to
Three Cities and Sheffield. Further work is needed to develop the
service pattern. Figure 3.1 presents the potential measures that
would be needed to create a High Speed rail connection and the
associated journey times that this would generate.
There are a number of operational issues to consider between
both Tamworth and Derby, and Derby to Sheffield. The section
between Tamworth and Derby is mainly double track, although
there are freight loops in the Burton on Trent area that enable
passenger trains to overtake. There are also freight lines from
Peartree to Derby. In developing a timetable for the High Speed
rail service there will be a need to avoid conflicts with the CrossCountry services to the North East and Scotland via Sheffield,
plus the Birmingham to Nottingham trains. These services are
operated by 125 mph and 100 mph rolling stock respectively,
and there are differences in stopping patterns between
Birmingham and Derby that could affect the timing of the High
Speed Rail service. There are also significant freight flows to
consider, which may themselves increase as a result of the
greater capacity on the line.
Sheffield Station
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An option for linking the Midland
Main Line to the proposed new
High Speed 2 route
This diagram shows the estimated journey times for
High Speed Rail services between Sheffield, Three
Cities and London via an upgraded / electrified
Midland Main Line and a link to High Speed 2
West Yorkshire and the North East
Bedford
Luton Airport Parkway
Luton
Wellingborough
Kettering
Market Harborough
Leicester
Loughborough
Derby
Chesterfield
Nottingham
Rotherham (freight only)
Manchester
Sheffield
Birmingham
Burton on Trent
East Midlands Parkway
Matlock
Long Eaton
Nuneaton & Birmingham
Beeston Nottingham
Chesterfield
Bletchley
Newark
Peterborough & Haven Ports
New High Speed
rail corridor,
alignment to be
confirmed.
Line speed
improvements
to cut journey
times by 2
minutes.
Committed
investment
delivered by
2014.
Not to Scale
Milford
Tunnel
Toadmoor
Tunnel
Clay Cross
Tunnel
BradwayTunnel
Trent Junction
Freight loops inthe Peartree area
New junction to be constructed
in the Tamworth area
Dore Junction
London
Total Estimated Journey Time
Estimated Journey Time
Estimated Journey Time
Estimated Journey Time
Figure 3.1: Estimated Journey Times Between London and Sheffield via HSR
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CHAPTER 3.0
JOURNEY TIME SAVINGS
A separate study has examined the potential journey time
reductions that could be achieved between Sheffield and
London as a result of upgrading the MML. Analysis suggested
a package of line speed improvements and electrification could
reduce timings from the current 127 minutes to 116 minutes.
The enhanced MML timings provide a useful comparator to
High Speed rail improvements. The following summarises the
estimated journey times, presented for each of the main routesections.
Route Section Estimated Journey Time (mins)
London to Tamworth 50
Tamworth to Derby 20
Derby station (dwell time) 2
Derby to Sheffield 30
Total 102
Notes: This dwell time exists to enable people to alight from and board the train
High Speed 1, crossing Medway Bridge
Sheffield Station
Table 3.1: Estimated Journey Times Between London and Sheffield via HSR
There is ongoing work to identify the likely operating speeds
for the new High Speed route. The indicative timings for the
London to Tamworth section may need to be refined once further
details of the potential High Speed alignment emerge, whilst
the remaining timings are based on line speeds on conventional
routes of up to 125 mph. The timings between Sheffield and
Derby reflect the fastest current journey time, but do not
include the potential line speed improvements. These timing
assumptions reflect the capacity constraints highlighted earlier,
particularly between Dore and Sheffield, that could affect timings.
The results presented in Table 3.1 suggest there is potential
to cut journey times to 102 minutes between Sheffield and
London. This would save about 14 minutes compared with the
MML upgrade option (102 minutes), and by about 25 minutes
compared with the existing service (127 minutes).
A High Speed route from London to the West Midlands would
release capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line (WCML),
and this could be utilised for a new Sheffield service. The recent
WCML line speed improvements mean journey times between
London and Tamworth have been reduced to about an hour.
Whilst this option would achieve similar journey time savings
compared with the upgraded and electrified MML, it would also
relieve capacity on the southern part of the route.
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CHAPTER 4.0
CAPACITY IMPROVEMENTS
In addition to the journey time improvements between London
and Sheffield that would generate new revenue, the new
service via High Speed Rail could also deliver other benefits.
For example, diverting a Sheffield service via HS2 could enable
the total number of trains between the Sheffield City Region,
East Midlands and London to be increased, enabling overall
capacities to be boosted. The following summarises the likely
change in hourly line capacities in each direction:
Existing capacities per hour, per direction:
248 seats from Derby;•
342 seats from Sheffield;•
457 seats from Nottingham;•
457 seats from Nottingham; and•
Total 1504 seats.•
Future capacities per hour per direction:
As above, plus 550-600 seats from Sheffield (estimated);•
and Total 2,054-2,104 seats, equating to a 32-40% increase•
in the number of seats from the East Midlands / South
Yorkshire to London.
The additional capacity would help to support future demand
growth on the MML route, and help to generate wider economic
benefits (see section 5 below).
In addition to the extra capacity, there may be scope to modify
the MML timetable, by reducing journey times between the major
stations.
The benefits of releasing capacity onto the enhanced MML for
East Midlands cities and towns are likely to be substantial and
should be included in the wider business case assessment.
CHAPTER 5.0
ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS
Measuring Costs and Benefits
The methodology to calculate the wider economic benefits
associated with a High Speed Rail service between Sheffield, the
Three Cities and London is highly complex. None of the business
cases examining High Speed Rail to date have examined the
merits of a Sheffield service via HS2. As a result, many of these
impacts have been examined in a qualitative rather than aquantitative manner.
Wider economic benefits (WEBs) calculations capture the
productivity and labour market benefits from bringing places
closer together. The rationale underpinning this assumption is
that firms which cluster together tend to be more productive. The
largest two contributors to WEBs are:
‘pure agglomeration’, which captures the benefits of bringing•
places and economic activity effectively closer together by
reducing journey times, supporting business growth and the
intertwining of markets. Bringing businesses closer together
in this manner frequently increases their productivity; and‘move to more productive jobs’ that captures the benefits of •
enabling more people to commute to more productive, better
paid jobs, either by reducing journey times and thus making
routes more attractive, or by relieving capacity constraints on
existing congested commuter lines.
Whilst the WEBs methodology captures some of the benefits of
High Speed Rail it is important to note that it has its limitations.
The approach evolved to capture the commuter benefits of
Crossrail and thus focuses upon the benefits of relieving capacity
constraints and the accessibility to a single productive business
area. The potential benefits of transforming the economic
geography of the country which could be achieved through High
Speed Rail are therefore not fully captured.
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Source: Volterra calculation, range of outputs shown in brackets
Source: Volterra calculation, range of outputs shown in brackets
St Pancras Station
Distinguishing between types of Wider Economic
Benefits
As detailed above, the two main elements of the WEBs
methodology are ‘pure agglomeration’ and ‘move to more
productive jobs’, and these benefits are examined below. ‘Pure
agglomeration’ and ‘move to more productive jobs’ benefits
value different types of productivity impacts and are therefore
completely additional to one another.
The savings enabled by linking the MML via the potential HS2 to
London will significantly reduce journey times, thereby makingthe economic centres of Derby, Nottingham, Leicester and
Sheffield closer to the economic hub of London.
It is generally accepted that journey times of under an hour begin
to appeal as commuter routes and journey times up to 2-3 hours
allow businesses to carry out face to face day meetings on a
semi-regular basis. Journey times of over 3 hours are associated
with less frequent business travel, for which air travel begins to
compete.
Journeys from Sheffield and the Three Cities to London therefore
fall into the middle category and reductions in these journey
times will make it easier for people doing business and attending
meetings in the capital, rather than those commuting on a daily
basis. This kind of benefit is valued by the ‘pure agglomeration’
calculations.
In addition to this, a link onto HS2 would divert trains from the
Three Cities and Sheffield onto this route which would free up
subsequent capacity on the southern part of the route. This
would enable more trains to run on this line, making it a more
feasible option for commuters. This kind of benefit is valued by
the ‘move to more productive jobs’ calculations.
Estimates made in this report of the WEBs for a link from HS2 to
the MML have been based on a series of assumptions. Due to
changes in DfT Guidance and the use of different study areas,
these assumptions are different to those adopted for other
recent work for emda and the Sheffield and Leeds City Regions
on the economic benefits of High Speed Rail. It is therefore not
appropriate to make direct comparisons of the WEBs estimates
across these different reports.
Estimates of ‘pure agglomeration’
The WEBs methodology on ‘pure agglomeration’ has been used
to estimate the benefits of bringing businesses across the study
area closer together. We have used the latest DfT guidance and
the estimated journey time savings detailed in Section 3 in order
to carry out a high level analysis of these benefits. We estimate
that linking the MML via HS2 will create annual productivity
benefits of £50-70 million, in 2002 prices. The distribution of
these benefits are shown in Table 5.1.
Annual Productivity Gains
(£m, 2002 prices) MML &
HS2
Sheffield CR 18.7 (15.5-18.7)
Derby HMA 16.6 (15.7-21.6)
Leicester HMA 0.6 (0.6-0.9)
Nottingham HMA 2.7 (2.4-2.8)
London 20.7 (19.1-22.9)
Total 59.4 (53.3-66.9)
Less Sheffield 40.7 (37.8-48.2)
The largest productivity benefits accrue to the Sheffield City
Region and Derby Housing Market Area (HMA). This is due
to the large time and frequency savings created from these
places. Some benefits also accrue to Leicester and Nottingham
HMAs, as a result of the greater capacity available on the MML,but fewer places in these areas benefit from time savings and
therefore lower productivity gains benefits are estimated.
London also benefits from linking the MML to HS2 as bringing
the UK’s main economic hub closer to businesses in Sheffield.
Hence, London receives around a third of the estimated benefits.
The annual productivity benefits of £50-70 million equate to a
60 year Net Present Value (NPV) of some £2-2.4 billion. The
distribution of benefits is shown in Table 5.2.
Table 5.1: The Distribution of Annual Productivity Gains
Table 5.2: 60 year NPV of linking the MML to HS2
60yr NPV (£m, 2002 prices)
MML & HS2
Total 2,170 (2,000–2,400)
East Midlands 730 (700–900)
Sheffield City Region 680 (600–700)
These benefits are additional to any standard transport benefits
from capacity relief, frequency improvements, fewer accidents
etc. The estimates represent the productivity benefit of bringing
businesses closer together. This would include the benefit of
being able to access and interact with more businesses more
easily, which is a direct consequence of improved connectivity.
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Source: Census 2001 commuting data from NOMIS
Digital Map Data © Collins Barthomolew Ltd 2009 & Crown Copyright © Overview Mapping 2009
Using the difference in GDP created across sectors in London
in comparison to the Three Cities and Sheffield City Regions,
we estimate that increased commuting to more productive jobs
in London could result in £13.5-15 million of annual productivity
gains in 2002 prices, or a 60 year Net Present Value of £0.5-
0.55 billion. This is a significant productivity benefit and it would
accrue partly to businesses in London as a result of having
access to more workers, and partly to the Three Cities and the
Sheffield City Region as these workers take their higher earnings
home and spend more money locally, thus creating knock-on
local benefits. Even these high level illustrative calculations
show that this effect could lead to real and significant productivity
benefits.
Derby Station Sheffield Station
GVA per worker (2006), £
(in 2002 prices)
Consumer
Construction
Construction Manufacturing Producer Services
Sheffield CR 27,600–32,500 41,200–52,400 40,900–54,100 50,600–71,300
Derby HMA 30,300–32,300 44,500–52,400 53,100–67,800 70,100–71,300
Leicester HMA 33,700–34,000 36,000–50,000 48,000–53,100 55,200–64,400
Nottingham HMA 30,600–33,200 37,700–52,400 51,400–57,300 55,800–71,300
London 42,100–46,000 67,500–80,200 56,000–80,000 57,400–101,900
Figure 5.1: Commuting to London
Table 5.3: 2006 GDP per worker (£, in 2002 prices)
Source: DfT Economic Dataset
Estimates of ‘move to more productive jobs’
The ‘move to more productive jobs’ aspect of WEBs is additional
to ‘pure agglomeration’ and is intended to capture the benefits
of enabling more people to commute to more productive, better
paid jobs. This would be achieved by either reducing journey
times and thus making routes more attractive, or relieving
capacity constraints on existing commuter routes affected by
overcrowding.
As Figure 5.1 shows, some commuting to London already
occurs from the southern part of the East Midlands Region. A linkonto HS2 would divert trains from the Three Cities and Sheffield
onto this route would help to release capacity to benefit stations
in the southern part of the region. This would enable more trains
to run on this line making it a more feasible option for commuters
in this area.
Illustrative high level estimates have been made based on very
transparent assumptions 2, to give an indication of the potential
extent of benefits from this commuting effect.
An analysis of productivity across the East Midlands and the
Sheffield City Region in comparison with London highlights the
areas which would be likely to benefit the most from an electrified
MML and a link to HS2. Table 5.3 summarises Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) per worker across the study area in different
sectors.
2 These are based on additional capacity of 550-600 seats per hour between Sheffield and
London with 50% of this new capacity utilised by new commuters (the remainder could be
represent modal shift from cars) and the peak lasting two hours. We assume that the additional
capacity is taken by people from a range of origin destinations. The results are not very sensitive
to the origin assumptions as the productivity differential across the study area does not vary
significantly.
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Source: Volterra Calculation
Unquantifiable Potential Benefits
The nature of the WEBs methodology means that it quantifies
the benefits of improving accessibility to key business areas
and how transport can improve productivity. However, the
principal function of High Speed Rail is transforming the future
development of the country’s economic geography. The
WEBs approach currently does not capture these potential
transformational impacts of transport investment.
The key limitation of existing techniques is taking a baseline
assumption of the current and planned residents and jobs
across the country. This means that the models do not allow for
a project to shape the types of future development that occur
as a result of investment in High Speed Rail. Therefore, the
models are not fit for the purpose to estimate the impacts of
investment in wholly new transport links upon location decisions
and the interconnectivity of towns, cities and regions. Hence the
potential benefits estimated in the previous section are likely to
underestimate the impact of High Speed Rail.
There are a variety of additional factors which might result from
improved access via High Speed Rail. Some are monetised but
difficult to quantify because causation is far from tested and
agreed. Others are unlikely to be quantified in monetary terms,and could include:
Quantifiable / Monetary:
Increased development;•
Increased inward investment; and•
Higher value rents and property values.•
Unquantifiable / Non-monetary:
Improved image and profile;•
Fostering community pride and cohesion; and•
Visitor attraction, tourism linked benefits.•
Connectivity to Heathrow Airport
Existing connectivity between South Yorkshire and Heathrow
Airport is relatively poor. From St Pancras, the Underground link
from central London to Heathrow is relatively slow. The Heathrow
Express does offer a faster journey time, but passengers need to
make a further interchange.
As part of the wider evaluation, HS2 Ltd is reviewing the options
to serve Heathrow Airport using High Speed Rail. The fast, direct
access to the Airport provided by a High Speed Rail connection
would help to transform connectivity from South Yorkshire. In
2008 there were around 163,000 journeys to Sheffield andaround 650,000 journeys to the Three Cities by passengers
travelling to Heathrow Airport. A High Speed Rail link could
encourage modal shift from car to rail and thus enable a more
feasible lower carbon alternative mode of transport.
Conclusions
This study has considered the benefits which could be achieved
by linking an enhanced MML to HS2. There is a strong case
for this option as an interim solution prior to the development of
a national high speed rail network. Other recent studies have
considered the benefits of different options for a dedicated
high speed network to serve the Three Cities, the Sheffield CityRegion, and on to the Leeds City region and North East. These
studies also found strong economic cases. The results of the
three studies should not be directly compared due to revisions
to guidance, different study areas and different methodologies.
The over-arching finding is that the productivity benefits of high
speed rail serving the economies of the Three Cities, Sheffield
City Region, the Leeds City Region and the North East would be
significant and there is a strong case for a high speed network
serving these locations. This should be considered as part of the
ongoing assessment of the future UK high speed rail network.
Exact routing options will need to be determined in more detail in
the future.
St Pancras Station
Summary of Wider Economic Benefits
Table 5.4 summarises the WEBs which have been estimated.
The MML link to HS2 would deliver significant time savings to
London. This could result in pure agglomeration benefits of
£2-2.4 billion and a further £0.5 billion from potential move-to-
more-productive-jobs. These benefits are very significant and
support the case to investigate the potential to deliver this High
Speed Rail option linking to the East Midlands and Yorkshire.
60yr NPVs(£m, 2002 prices)
Pure agglomeration
Total 2,170 (2,000–2,400)
East Midlands 730 (700–900)
Sheffield City Region 680 (600–700)
Move to more productive
jobs
Total 540 (270-800)
Table 5.4: Estimated WEBs benefits
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High Speed 1 © Daniel Clements
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For further information please contact:
Tom Bridges
Arup
t: +44 (0)113 242 8498
Steve Harley
East Midlands Development Agency
t: +44 (0)115 988 8426
Ben Still
SYPTE
t: +44 (0)114 221 1312
December 2009
Sylvia Yates
Sheffield City Region
t: +44 (0)114 263 5684
City RegionS H E F F I E L DS H E F F I E L D