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By

Dr. Simon L. Dolan

10 October 2016 European Commission

Rue van Maerlant 2 (VML02), Brussels

DG Research and Innovation Seminar WORK, WELFARE AND INEQUALITIES IN EUROPE – THE

RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE

EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR RESEARCH & INNOVATION Directorate B - Open Innovation and Open Science B.6 - Open and Inclusive Societies

Trends and speculations about the future of Work-jobs in Europe

The Gestalt for the prediction and forecasts of new jobs

Predicting future jobs is an exercise that involves looking at future industries and speculating on ways in which they will be different than the workforce today. Business management, engineering, accounting, marketing, and sales are all necessary skills for the future, but the work involved will be different . Some sectors will disappear and new will emerge. It seems that a new mix of skills will be needed for future talent: a mix of some important key disciplinary skills (engineering, business, medicine, etc.), embedded with good knowledge of digital technology and complemented by an important dosage of soft skills (open-mind, creativity, emotional intelligence, etc.).

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Fourteen years ago, Facebook didn't exist. Twelve years before

that, we didn't have the Web. So who knows what jobs will be born

a decade from now or how the workplace would look like?

Will we probably see in the future a more flexible, more freelance,

more collaborative and far less secure work world. One thing is

certain: it will be run by a generation that poses with new values

connected with a digital and virtual reality;

The cyber-age will also have a key role in the transformation of

work.

Introduction

Copyright © 2016 by Simon Dolan

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While almost everybody agrees that the design and nature of work in the

future will be very different from the work we know today, there is only

limited credible research that can help us understand

1) the global forces that shape the way we will be working in the future,

and,

2) the ways in which we can prepare the workforce to achieve sustainable

excellence

Copyright © 2016 by Simon Dolan

The three principal drivers of transformation in tomorrowland

Globalization Creation

Digitalization

(Technology & Virtualization)

Understanding the new landscape:

Facts, Fads and pending needs

Some core underlying assumptions

• Population in Europe include a large proportion of older people

• The supply chain will change dramatically and in almost every sector emphasis will be placed on sustainability (Green Economy)

• Automation will accelerate; efficiency will be achieved by robots while effectiveness will be on the rise, and be executed by people. This may change when the level of Artificial Intelligence will reach the level of human intelligence)

• Many unpredicted events will change course of action and effect large segments of the population (immigration crisis, epidemics, natural disasters, terrorism, and like); they will boost new sectors that did not exist before and will force mankind to be more creative

Tentative summary and agenda

We are living through the era of transformation. Transformation is very different from merely change; in transformation there is no going back. The three principal drivers of this transformation are Digitalization, Globalization and Creativity (Raich & Dolan, 2008, 2010, Raich, Eisler and Dolan 2014) . The organizational landscape is both changing and transforming so rapidly and dramatically, that many feel either lost or overwhelmed. Among others, the specific drivers on this shift of forces includes the realities where consumers are becoming far more informed, product choices are proliferating rapidly and technological advances and public policy liberalization are contributing to new flows of information, knowledge, and resources.

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Workforce of the Future: 7 Major Trends

• Decentralized and Specialized Work - trend towards decentralized (or virtual) work has gained momentum in the past decade due to two key drivers: a) rapid advances in information communication technologies, and b) the growth of newly industrialized countries whose appetite for creating wealth and jobs for their citizens is insatiable

• Workplace Diversity -gender, age (Gen X and Gen Y), ethnicity, etc.

• Networked Workplace - the workplace of relationships extends well beyond face-to-face interactions to increasingly virtual ones

• Personal Branding - I am my “Brand” - it’s all about personal branding, building credibility, network and knowledge so that I remain one step ahead of my competitors.

• Self-Reliance Through Continuous Learning

• Sharing Knowledge: Anytime, Anywhere, Anyhow- Smart 21st Century organizations embrace their employees’ use of social media

• 3-D leadership - To create the incentive to think seriously about future strategy, you have to create a deep sense of restlessness with the status quo. You have to help people understand that current success is very impermanent. – Gary Hamel

Slide provided by Dave Ulrich – used with permission

Slides 13-21 A potpourri of predictions about future skills , future jobs and future industries (If time runs short these slides can be skipped)

A European Perspective with a focus on youth

14 new skills that will be highly prized in the future Job title Short description

1 Transitionists Those who can help make a transition

2 Expansionists A talent for adapting along with a growing environment -

3 Maximizers An ability to maximize processes, situations, and opportunities

4 Optimizers The skill and persistence to tweak variables until it produces better results

5 Inflectionists Finding critical inflection points in a system will become a much-prized skill

6 Dismantlers Every industry will eventually end, and this requires talented people who know how to scale things back in an orderly fashion.

7 Feedback Loopers Those who can devise the best possible feedback loops

8 Backlashers Ever- new technology will have its detractors, and each backlash will require a response

9 Last Milers Technologies commonly reach a point of diminishing returns as they attempt to extend their full capacity to the end user. People with the ability to mastermind these solutions will be in hot demand.

10 Contexualists In between the application and the big picture lays the operational context for every new technology

11 Ethicists There will be an ever-growing demand for people who can ask the tough question and standards to apply moral decency to some increasingly complex situations

12 Philosophers With companies in a constant battle over “my-brain-is-bigger-that-your-brain,” it becomes the overarching philosophy that wins the day

13 Theorists Every new product, service, and industry begins with a theory

14 Legacists Those who are passionate and skilled with leaving a legacy

Conclusions

1st Conclusion: Low skilled labor will, or is, being asked to 'collaborate and compete with robots and smart machines: the trend will accelerate.

Headline: Foxconn begins replacing workers with robots ahead of US expansion ?

A new wave of highly skilled robots is already starting to replace workers around the world, at cutting-edge companies like electric car maker Tesla and technology leader Apple, as well as at behind-the-scenes actors such as C&S Wholesale Grocers, a major grocery supplier. These robots are much more adept than the ones of yesteryear and are already starting to replace humans

2nd conclusion: We will compete not only with each other on scarce jobs, but we will also have to win the robots armed with artificial intelligence

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/business/new-wave-of-adept-robots-is-changing-global-industry.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Copyright © 2016 by Simon Dolan

Copyright © 2016 by Simon Dolan

3rd conclusion:

More conclusions 4. The workforce will become much more fragmented 5. Offices will not be a fixed location 6. Mobile technology is the real cause of this huge Shift 7.Some expected and necessary changes will take place transforming the workplace (Examples)

• Changing the definition of work, expanding it to non-payed , but meaningful activities e.g raising children;

• Changing the time to work: less working hours and more intermediary sabbaticals for learning and development of competencies;

• Developing new ways to work more adequate to the Cyber-Age e.g. management innovation;

• new model for economics e.g providing money for basic needs and making work a privilege;

• new models for life long education).

Copyright © 2016 by Simon Dolan

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Thank you Simon L. Dolan