Version 04/11/2014

U:\FORESIGHT\6. FBI conferences\FTA\Programme\FTA 2014 draft program-vs4A6.docx

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Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Conference 2014 Engage today to shape tomorrow

European Commission - Charlemagne building - Brussels

PRELIMINARY PROGRAMME

27 November 2014

09.00 09.30

Welcome coffee and registration

09.30 10.45

Opening session " Engage today to shape tomorrow" Room GASPERI

Welcome by Vladimír Šucha, Director General of the JRC

Keynote by Sohail Inayatullah, Professor at the University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia

Introduction to the conference, JRC

Chair: Vladimír Šucha, Director General of the JRC

10.45 11.15

Coffee break Posters display: Interfaces

Visitors Centre Room 5

The CEO Positioning System Eddy Schuermans CSA as a Facilitative Foresight Tool Mette Sanne Hansen, Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen, Peter Jacobsen FTA, Foresight and Evaluation Research: A Theoretical Outline of the FOEVA model Jari Kaivo-oja Formal conditions for creative processes of anticipation Andrée Ehresmann, Mathias Béjean Exploring design fiction for FTA Camille Bosqué, Axel Lagnau Environmental Scanning and Scenario Thinking: new scenario development or re-using existing scenario studies? Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida,

Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes Exploring the Coherent Catastrophism as a creative interface for FTA Sergey Bredikhin

11.15 13.15

Parallel panel sessions Workshops and Labs

Cutting edge FTA approaches: Tools and approaches

Room GASPERI

Alan Porter, Georgia Institute of Technology, United States; Andrea Ricci, Institute for Innovation and Sustainability, Italy

Network science methods as instruments for strategic evaluation and for bridging the gap between collaborative S&T and Brazilian societal problems Adriana Badaró, Jackson Maia, Cristiano Cagnin, Marcelo Paiva

Identifying Potential Opportunities for Emerging Technologies by Using Literature Linkages Jing Ma, Alan L. Porter

Future-oriented technology analysis as an organising process. Proposals from action-based scenarios Anne Marchais-Roubelat, Fabrice Roubelat

Intellectual capital measurement In technology foresight Anna Sacio-Szymańska, Beata Poteralska

Profile and trends in FTA approaches: a bibliometric analysis of special issues of international journals from four FTA conferences Per Dannemand Andersen, Lars Alkærsig

The evolution of the use of FTA methods: A scientometric analysis of global research output for cutting-edge FTA approaches Ozcan Saritas, Serhat Burmaoglu

Comparing information sources for identifying technology trends Anna Sokolova, Nadezhda Mikova

Eliciting expert knowledge to assess global societal trends and their impact on the EU Benoit Guerin, Stijn Hoorens, Ohid Yaqub, Dmitry Khodyakov

Dynamic online Delphi as a tool in building communities of practice Liviu Andreescu, Radu Gheorghiu, Adrian Curaj

The research on interdisciplinary technology forecasting Wei Zhao, Pengjun Qiu, Xuefeng Wang, Donghua Zhu

Building resilient communities

Room JENKINS

Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Malta Council for Science and Technology and Geci Karuri Sebina, South African Cities Network

Elements in the construction of future-orientation: a systems view to foresight Mikko Dufva, Toni Ahlqvist

Evaluating Foresight in Transnational Research Programming Karel Haegeman, Totti Könnölä

How shared perceptions about futures emerge from the interaction between agents in the innovation system? Mikko Dufva, Leena Ilmola, Toni Ahlqvist

Urban Futures: exploring participatory, normative, backcasting approaches in developing sustainable storylines for chinese urbanisation to 2050 Olivia Bina, Andrea Ricci

Grassroots social innovation, co-production and foresight: community rebooted Effie Amanatidou

Future-proofing an entire nation – The case of Tanzania Aidan Eyakuze, Edmund Matotay

Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities José Miguel Fernández-Güell, Javier González López

At the Edge of the future: Nowcasting amongst citizen experts for action-oriented foresight Alberto Cottica , Natia El-Imam, Inga Popovaite, Khatuna Sandroshvili.

Shaping innovation systems: Using the future for shaping STI policies

Room MANSHOLT

Ron Johnston, Professor Australian Centre for Innovation; Adrian Curaj, National School of Political Science and Public Administration

Implementing Innovation System Foresight Using Innovation Indices to Inform Portfolio Analysis Eduardo do Couto e Silva, Richard Silberglitt, Cristiano Cagnin, Lucas Machado, Jackson Maia

Policy-lensing of research and innovation system scenarios: a demonstration for the European Research Area Douglas K. R. Robinson, Philippe Larédo, Antoine Schoen, Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, Stefan Kuhlmann, Jordi Molas-Gallart

Exploring transformative research and innovation futures and their embedding in the ERA Stephanie Daimer, Matthias Weber

Societal Challenges: Shapers of profoundly different STI Futures Susanne Giesecke, Stephanie Daimer, Elisabetta Marinelli

National system of innovation as condition in the policy of science, technology and industry in African developing countries Jihene Malek

Practices of focus groups for horizon scanning in research organizations Augusta Maria Paci, Anne-Christine Ritchkoff

FLAs and STI Policy Governance: A suggested framework to explore potential impacts Attila Havas, Matthias Weber

Russian S&T Foresight 2030: Looking for New Drivers of Growth Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok

Futures Literacy UKnowLab

Visitors Centre Room 1

Riel Miller, UNESCO; Cristiano Cagnin, Center for Strategic Studies and Management, Brazil

New Approaches and Needs in Foresight – An Interactive Exchange Session

Visitors Centre Room 2

Cornelia Daheim, Z_Punkt GmbH, The Foresight Company, Germany

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13.15 14.30

Lunch buffet Poster display: Policy

Visitors Centre Room 5

Decline of Canada’s Telecommunication Dominance: The Demise of Nortel Jonathan Calof. Greg Richards, Laurent Mirabeau Nurturing policy capability for anticipatory actions Magda Fontana, Simone Landini, Sylvie Occelli Addressing national problems through the prism of Grand Challenges: a new cycle of Russian critical technologies Alexander Sokolov, Anna Grebenyuk;

Sergey Shashnov Participatory S&T Policy Planning: A Case study on R&D Planning in Korea Jiyoung Suh The R3S3T map: a co-design tool for future-oriented collaborative conversations in multidisciplinary groups Alessandro Rancati Public Management and Development in Brazil - Four Scenarios for 2020 Sylvio Kelsen Coelho An Integrated Foresight Framework for Designing Technology Platforms: Experience on a Technology and Innovation Platform for Oncological Drugs

Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida, Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes

14.30 16.00

Parallel panel sessions Workshops and Labs

Confronting complexity and uncertainty Room GASPERI

Per Dannemand Andersen, Technical University of Denmark; Laurent Bontoux JRC (EC)

Envisioning societal impacts of research and technology and embedding future-oriented analysis in program development: the case of security research Florian Fritz

Global Food Security: anticipating developmental patterns to guide policymakers Albino Maggio, Tine Van Criekinge, Johanna Trieb

Modelling and Simulating Surprises in Uncertain Complex Systems Erik Pruyt, Tushith Islam, Jan H. Kwakkel

Towards Better Participatory Foresight Processes - Linking Participatory Foresight Research to the Methodological Machinery of Phenomenology Jari Kaivo-Oja

The Role of the Pre-Foresight Phase in Open Foresight Processes Regina Gattringer , Franz Strehl

Dealing with social impacts of future technologies: engaging lay people in debates on Neuroenhancement in Austria Simone Seyringer

Future technology prospects

Room JENKINS

Matthias Weber, Austrian Institute of Technology; Byeongwon Park, Future Strategy Centre, South Korea

Identifying Technology Evolution Pathways Based on Tech Mining and Patent Citation Network --Illustrated for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Ying Huang, Fujin Zhu, Ying Guo, Alan Porter, Donghua Zhu

FTA & the High-Speed Trains Innovation System Susana Moretto, Douglas K. R. Robinson, António B. Moniz

The Construction of Socio-Technical Trajectories for Technology Assessment - Applications to the German policy field of electric mobility Jens Schippl, Bernhard Truffer, Torsten Fleischer, Armin Grunwald

Embedding FTA in a corporation through infiltration André Winzer, Nico Thom

Technological Crimes of the Future: An Analysis of the Ways in which Emerging Technologies could be Used for Criminal Activities Arod Balissa, Ori Nachum, Roey Tzezana

Co-design and multi-criteria assessment for future passenger controls at airports Antje Bierwisch, Benjamin Teufel, Stephan Grandt

Designing the future

Room MANSHOLT

Cristiano Cagnin, Center for Strategic Studies and Management, Brazil; Fabiana Scapolo, JRC (EC)

Mental Time Travelling in Foresight Processes – Cases and Applications Kerstin Cuhls

Structured Analogies as a Mode of Prediction Scott W. Cunningham

Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices Cynthia Selin

A Triangular Futures Approach for Shaping Future-Oriented Communities Seongwon Park , Jiyoung Suh

Ethnographies of Practice, Visioning and Foresight in Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Heather Moore, Pedro Sanches, Magnus Boman

Whither FTA: Struggling to Cooperate with Our Own Evolution Ruben Nelson

FTA to Formulate Effective Innovation Policy and Strategy Visitors Centre Room 1

Ron Johnston, Professor Australian Centre for Innovation

Exploring data visualisation tools Visitors Centre Room 2

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Design Department, Milan Polytechnic University

16.00 – 16.30

Coffee break Posters display: Innovation

Visitors Centre Room 5 Corporate foresight model applicable to SMEs as a tool for innovation-oriented planning Fernando Ortega The emergence of graphene-based system of innovations Krzysztof Klincewicz GCIO policy design: shaping Colombian ICT innovation Adriana del Pilar Sánchez- Vargas, Jenny Marcela Sánchez-Torres A framework for theory development in foresight Kalle A. Piirainen Foresight as a means of innovation management at public research organisations Anna Sacio-Szymańska, Adam Mazurkiewicz, Beata Poteralska Smart Specialisation: ‘All roads lead to Rome’ Anne Nygaard Tanner, Kalle A. Piirainen, Lars Alkærsig New modes of governing Research and Innovation: Future scenarios and strategies Ozcan Saritas, Effie Amanatidou, Denis Loveridge Public sector engagement in energy research and innovation - a bird's eye view Elisa Boelman

16.30 18.00

Parallel panel sessions Workshops and Labs

How innovation systems contribute to inclusive growth and competitiveness Room GASPERI

Luke Georghiou, Professor, University of Manchester

Foresight for Shaping Innovation Systems in Developing Economies Carlos Aguirre-Bastos, Matthias Weber

European Sectoral Innovation Foresight: Identifying emerging cross-sectoral patterns and policy issues Matthias Weber , Bernhard Dachs, Susanne Giesecke, Karl-Heinz Leitner, Petra Schaper-Rinkel, Doris Schartinger, Georg Zahradnik

Personal Health Systems Foresight: Wiring up Multi-layered

Regional Innovation systems

Room JENKINS

Per Dannemand Andersen, Technical University of Denmark; Karel Haegeman, JRC-IPTS

Multi-Layered Foresight: Lessons from Regional Foresight in Chile Mikko Dufva, Totti Könnölä, Raija Koivisto

Using FTA to successfully develop Smart Specialisation Strategies - an EU overview and a regional case study Günter Clar, Sabine Hafner-Zimmermann, Björn Sautter

Smart specialisation roadmaps in Lithuania: lost in translation? Agnė Paliokaitė, Žilvinas Martinaitis

Crossing innovation boundaries, the economic potential of

Big data

Room MANSHOLT

Adrian Curaj, National School of Political Science and Public Administration

Enhanced power of patent big data Christopher L. Benson, Christopher L. Magee

Metaphor: A Multilingual Approach for Exploring Global Foresights Freija van Duijne, Stephan De Spiegeleire

Adaptive policy formulation for an era of accelerated interdiction by an algorithm-big data duo Cristiano Cagnin, Denis Loveridge

Revealing autonomy change caused by future forms of

Mental Time Travelling

Visitors Centre Room 1

Kerstin Cuhls, ISI-Fraunhofer, Germany

Complexity and information design

Visitors Centre Room 2

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Design Department, Milan Polytechnic University

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Innovation Systems Laura Pombo-Juárez, Totti Könnölä, Susanne Guisecke, Effie Amanatidou, Ian Miles, Doris Schartinger, Günter Schreier, Özcan Saritas

Radical and disruptive innovation: 2030 work and skills scenarios Martin Rhisiart, Eckhard Störmer, Cornelia Daheim

Present Thinking About the Future of Intellectual Property Jeremy de Beer, Alexandra Mogyoros & Sean Stidwill

scope and scale Peter De Smedt, Frans van der Zee

human-technology relations. The AMTIR Heuristic as an FTA tool Bruno Gransche

18.00 18.45

"Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen"

Room GASPERI

- Keynote by Ms Caroline V. Rudzinski, Foresight, Strategy & Innovation Management; Volkswagen

18.45 20.00

Cocktail

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28 November 2014

08.30 09.00

Welcome coffee and registration

09.00 11.00

Parallel panel sessions Workshops and Labs

Cutting edge FTA approaches: Tools and approaches

Room GASPERI

Ozcan Saritas, Higher School of Economics, National Research University Moscow; Andrea Ricci, Institute for Innovation and Sustainability, Italy

Future of services-oriented technologies and warranty management by applying foresight methods Mohammadali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi , Mahsa Soltanineshan

Energy Foresight, Scenarios and Sustainable Energy Policy in Brazil Marcelo Poppe, Richard Silberglitt, Cristiano Cagnin, Eduardo do Couto e Silva, Jackson Maia

A Systemic Multi-Method Scenario Approach: The Uncertain Future of Energy Erik Pruyt, Jan H. Kwakkel, Tushith Islam

Generating Futures from Text – Text Mining for Scenario Planning Victoria Kayser, Erduana Shala

Future Technology Scenarios Approach for Automotive Engines Tushar Kanikdale, Shankar Venugopal

Applying anticipatory networks to scenario planning and backcasting in technological foresight Andrzej M.J. Skulimowski

The GRIP method for collaborative road mapping workshops Kalle A. Piirainen

National and regional public technology strategies: Exploring practice using the Science-Technology-Application-Market (STAM) typology Charles Featherston, Eoin O’Sullivan

A systematic process for structuring successive roadmapping exercises for emerging technologies: lessons from additive manufacturing in the US Jae-Yun Ho, Charles Featherston

Future technology prospects

Room JENKINS

Matthias Weber, Austrian Institute of Technology; Byeongwon Park, Future Strategy Centre, South Korea

Methods for Future-Oriented Technology Assessment: Examples from OTA, GAO and the U.S. Context Virginia Chanley

Foresight for building a regional cluster platform: Cellulosic value chain technology roadmap in Mt Gambier, South Australia Toni Ahlqvist , Mikko Dufva , John Kettle , Ville Valovirta & Göran Roos

Future-Oriented Technology Analysis within the Framework of the German Defence Innovation System – An Integrated, Multi-Perspective Approach Matthias Grüne, Ulrik Neupert

Renewable energy futures in Finland – alternative paths for growth up to 2025 Pasi Rikkonen and Vilja Varho

Technology foresight in national defence organisations in Europe and implications for corporate strategy Silvia M Vicente Oliva, Ángel Martínez Sánchez, José Manuel Delgado Gómez

Roadmapping an emerging industry with bibliometrics and patent analysis: A case of OLED industry in China Xin Li, Yuan Zhou, Lan Xue, Lucheng Huang

Designing the future

Room MANSHOLT

Kerstin Cuhls, ISI-Fraunhofer, Germany; Peter De Smedt, JRC (EC)

Experiencing the future. The cross fertilization of speculative design and foresight Nicole Rijkens - Klomp, Michael van Lieshout , Nik Baerten, Daniel Rossi

Anticipation and Visualisation of Regional Future Developments – A Scenario Case on the Conceptualisation of an Innovation Hub Dana Mietzner

Developing a transformative business strategy through the combination of design thinking and futures literacy Cristiano Cagnin, Adriana Badaró, Alessandra Brandão, Mayra Juruá and Marcelo Paiva

The future imagined: exploring utopia and dystopia in popular art as a means of understanding today’s challenges and tomorrow’s options Olivia Bina, Sandra Mateus, Lavinia Pereira, and Annalisa Caffa

Futures Literacy Knowlabs in Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Piotr Jutkiewicz ,Norbert Kołos, Łukasz Macander , Kacper Nosarzewski

Forecasting Innovation Pathways

Visitors Centre Room 1

Alan Porter, Georgia Institute of Technology, United States

Linking foresight and policy labs; opportunities and challenges

Visitors Centre Room 2

Fabiana Scapolo and Foresight and Behavioural Insights unit, JRC (EC)

11.00 11.30

Coffee break Posters display: Tools Poster space level 2 The Future of Model-Based FTA Erik Pruyt, W.A.H Thissen International Comparison of Recent Foresight Studies Axel Zweck, Anette

Braun, Sylvie Rijkers-Defrasne Future oriented-technology and society analysis in Flanders: a systemic

approach Elie Ratinckx, Danielle Raspoet, Els Compernolle, Boris Debeuf, An Schrijvers, Kristien Vercoutere, Arnold Verbeek, Els Van de Velde, Frank Bongers, Hugo Gillebaard, Leonique Korlaar, Luc Van der Biest, Luk Bral, Joep Konings & Koenraad Debackere

Intelligence on the IP Service Industry as innovative input for FTA Liina Tonisson, Lutz Maicher

Trend archaeology – profiling future technologies by retrospective bibliometric analyses Marcus John, Frank Fritsche, Matthias Grüne

Prospects of CO2 utilisation in Europe M. Pérez-Fortes, A. Bocin-Dumitriu, E. Tzimas and E. Peteves

Strong Ties, Weak Ties and Regional Innovation Systems or Clusters Kenneth White George Emery

Something new under the sun. A category-theoretic analysis of innovation and unpredictable futures Ilkka Tuomi

Alignment between strategy formulation and implementation in higher education institution in brazil Daiane Aparecida de Melo Heinzen, Sidnei Vieira Marinho, Denis Loveridge

China and European Union in the context of global climate change before 2030: Analysis of changing economic structures and related policies with the cutting edge FTA focus Jyrki Luukkanen, Juha Panula-Ontto, Jarmo Vehmas, Liu Liyong, Jari Kaivo-oja, Laura Häyhä & Burkhard

Towards a mixed quantitative-qualitative FTA approach for analysing complex

technology domains - Emerging Arctic technologies? Anna Leinonen, Arho Suominen, Toni Ahlqvist, Hannes Toivanen

Time-series Clustering to Address the Scenario Deluge Tushith Islam , Erik Pruyt FTA: Ethics in BCI Technologies Gabriel T. Velloso The Energy Research Knowledge Centre - Lessons in engagement and integration

for European Energy Research Aliki Georgakaki Participatory foresight – a demand side approach Niklas Gudowsky, Mahshid

Sotoudeh, Leo Capari Energy Futures- A systemic approach to developing qualitative societal scenarios

and informing energy modelling R. Scheele, W. Weimer-Jehle, S. Prehofer, H. Kosow, W.Hauser

SAW – Spontaneous Art Web Alexandra Abreu, Manuel V. Abreu, Carina Teixeira, Pedro Belo, João Pedro Leitão, Eduardo Santos

Automatic identification and data capture technology focused scenario thinking in the English national health service Mohsan Hussain, Stathis Tapinos, Louise Knight

Society and Materials conferences Jean-Pierre Birat, Sandra Belboom, Andrea Declich, Gaël Fick, Jean-Sébastien Thomas

R&D activities and the competition at the third layer of the ICT ecosystem: Comparing the performance of the Internet-based content and applications providers (ICAPs) in Europe, the US and Asia Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman

Foresight maturity of the Polish enterprises Anna Kononiuk Study on Identification Framework of Disruptive Technology Huang Lucheng, Cheng

Yu, Wu Feifei, Miao Hong, Li Xin The Social Networks as Social Innovation William Darío Ávila Díaz

Exploring trends, disruptions and opportunities for Horizon 2020 Serhat Burmaoglu, Ozcan Saritas

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Aufferman

11.30 12.15

" From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective action in the shaping of scientific and technological futures" Room GASPERI

- Keynote by Andrew Stirling, Professor at the University of Sussex

12.15 14.00

Lunch buffet

14.00 16.00

Parallel panel sessions Workshops and Labs

Policy adaptation

Room MANSHOLT

Riel Miller, UNESCO

Conceptual framework for positioning FTA techniques in policy appraisal Tommaso Ciarli, Ismael Rafols, Alex Coad

Keeping Score: better policy through improved predictive analysis Regina Joseph, Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, Michael Horowitz

On quality in futures studies. A proposal for a set of standards for good futures research Christian Neuhaus

How robust is a robust policy? Comparing alternative robustness metrics for robust decision-making Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt

The evolution of Foresight and its impact on policy making: case studies from Australia and Asia Ivana Milojević

Industrial transformation

Room JENKINS

Peter Churchill, Joint Research Centre; Cornelia Daheim, Z_Punkt GmbH, The Foresight Company, Germany

Global foresight and local strategic roadmapping for the development of a rare earth industry in Brazil Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida, Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes

Navigating complexity in foresight: lessons from the UK future of manufacturing project Paul McCaffrey, Eoin O’Sullivan, Carlos Lopez-Gomez

Foresight as a support to European innovation and industrial policy: the example of standards Fabiana Scapolo, K. Blind, Peter Churchill, Vincent Viaud

Riding the Sixth Wave: Kondratieff theory as a method in a multi-stakeholder process for the renewal of the Finnish forest and financial services industries Markku Wilenius, Sofi Kurki

Insights on technology development trend: topic clustering and forecasting Yi Zhang, Hongshu Chen, Guangquan Zhang, Jie Lu, Alan L. Porter, Donghua Zhu

Industry Scenarios : field level business models and user-contexts in medical additive manufacturing and biofabrication Douglas K.R. Robinson, Wouter P.C. Boon, Harro van Lente

Young FTA scholars' workshop Visitors Centre Room 1

Per Dannemand Andersen, Technical University of Denmark; Geci Karuri Sebina, South African Cities Network; Scott Cunningham, Associate Editor of Technological Forecasting and Social Change; Ted Fuller, Editor of Futures; Ozcan Saritas, Editor of Foresight - the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy.

16.00 16.30

Coffee break

16.30 17.15

Closing of the conference (Chair JRC)

Room GASPERI

- Key messages from the parallel sessions, workshop and labs from FTA the Scientific Committee and the audience

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