Future Shock:The Changing Demographics of

Southeast Michiganand Implications for Health Care

Presentation to the

Greater Detroit Area Health CouncilConference and 47th Annual Meeting

Kurt MetzgerCenter for Urban StudiesWayne State University

June 12, 2003

The Racial Makeup of Southeast Michigan Showed Dramatic Change

nc90,23390,2330Multi Race

-11.9-1,95414,46516,419Native Am.83.656,580124,26667,686Asian

121.93,6776,6933,016Other Race

52.246,682136,13689,454Hispanic

8.481,9051,051,595969,690Black-1.0-34,0983,410,1053,444,203White5.3243,0254,833,4934,590,468Total

% Chg% Chg# Chg# Chg2000200019901990

The Movement of Minorities to the Suburbs Marked the Decade of the 1990s

18,694

8,007

3,108

1,035

9,369

1,033

4,457

979

Hispanic

- 112,357

- 44,235

12,095

14,999

13,452

9,203

34,402

38,343

White

26,67212,97021,866Out-Wayne

19,69224,82742,907Oakland1,882205439St. Clair7,4148,7797,992Washtenaw

18,6641,219- 2,563Detroit

1,620115378Monroe12,8418,00510,838Macomb

1,44846048Livingston

Multi & Other

AsianBlack

The Minority Share of the Population Increases with Decreasing Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Total

< 5

5-17

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

New Immigrants Had a Large Impact on Southeast Michigan in the 1990s

27,177

10,101

411

20,364

329

7,119

333

Arrived in Arrived in 1980s1980s

4866,105Wayne

4553,009Oakland281,245St. Clair5718,914Washtenaw

34940Monroe

3423,760Macomb

331,535Livingston

% of Total % of Total Foreign BornForeign Born

Arrived in Arrived in 1990s1990s

Southeast Michigan Grew Older During the 1990s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0-4 5-17 18-34 35-64 65+

19902000

Future Shock: Boomers Begin to Hit 65 in 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-45-1718-3435-6465+

Seniors Will Represent 98 Percent of Regional Growth Over Next 30 Years

11.9574,838Total Pop.

99.0561,77465+

- 0.5- 8,61035-64

1.213,12118-34

- 1.6- 15,2275-17

7.123,7800-4

% Change% Change# Change# Change

Poverty Trends in the Tri-County

% Change19991989Elderly (65+)

% Change19991989Families

27,267

8,448

6,593

65,338

12,006

8,532

332,598

65,478

44,010

1999

-20.434,275Wayne

4.28,110Oakland

19.65,514Macomb

-28.591,421Wayne

-7.212,942Oakland

8.37,879Macomb

-20.5418,267Wayne

1.264,718Oakland

19.336,882Macomb

% Change1989Individuals

Unemployment Rates Have Returned to 1989 Territory

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Detroit MSADetroit City

Population Change Southeast Michigan 2000-2030

Decrease, more than 1,000 loss

Little change, 1,000 loss to 1,000 gain

Moderate increase, 1,001 to 4,000 gain

Large increase, 4,001 to 8,000 gain

Very large increase, more than 8,000 gain

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

Household ChangeSoutheast Michigan 2000-2030

Decrease, more than 500 loss

Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain

Moderate increase, 501 to 2,000 gain

Large increase, 2,001 to 4,000 gain

Very large increase, more than 4,000 gain

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

Job ChangeSoutheast Michigan 2000-2030

Decrease, more than 500 loss

Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain

Moderate increase, 501 to 2,500 gain

Large increase, 2,501 to 5,000 gain

Very large increase, more than 5,000 gain

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

Percent of Population Age 65 and OverSoutheast Michigan, 2000

0 - 10 percent

10.01 - 15 percent

15.01 - 20 percent

More than 20 percent

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

2000

Percent of Population Age 65 and OverSoutheast Michigan, 2000 and 2030

0 - 10 percent

10.01 - 15 percent

15.01 - 20 percent

More than 20 percent

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe 0 - 10 percent

10.01 - 15 percent

15.01 - 20 percent

More than 20 percent

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

2000 2030