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Futures Thinking and
Scenario Planning
Dr. Jay van Zyl
@jayvanzyl
01 Megawaves Waves of change
02 Reframing Shape your thinking
03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus
04 Human mash-ups under emergence
“When the dominating ideas and the action consequences of them
are not in phase
with an evolving external contextual logic
management has failed
at its core process.”
- Richard Normann
01 Megawaves Waves of change
02 Reframing Shape your thinking
03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus
04 Human mash-ups under emergence
Information and crowds ...and then it all changed!
Invention and Humans
01 Megawaves Waves of change
02 Reframing Shape your thinking
03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus
04 Human mash-ups under emergence
Information transformation era’s
Metaphor and Myth
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their
home. - Ken Olson, president,
Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
I see no advantage whatsoever to the graphical user interface.
- Bill Gates, 1983
I see little commercial potential for the Internet for at least 10
years. - Bill Gates, Comdex, 1994
"A revolution doesn't happen when society adopts new tools, it happens when society adopts
new behaviours." - Clay Shirky
Uber’s logic of innovation
This is how eager Uber is to grow. It will do anything and partner with anyone as long as it pulls in new users, no matter how high they are. WeedMaps…
This is how eager Uber is to grow. It will do anything and partner with anyone as long as it pulls in new users, no matter how high they are. WeedMaps…
we are recording all the rituals and behaviors in which individuals and groups in society
participate
Probabilistic Prediction
• Restaurants • Nightlife • Hotels • Shopping • Museums • Health • Money
01 Megawaves Waves of change
02 Reframing Shape your thinking
03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus
04 Human mash-ups under emergence
Scenarios in action
Volume of ideas developed through stages
One great idea gets developed
recommendation is a suggestion as to the best cause of
action
Know Yourself Live better
UP is a system that tracks how you sleep, move and eat, then provides insights that help you make decisions to feel your best.
gamification is a fun way to make suggestions as to the best
cause of action
ecosystem is changing with services
PayPal nearly half of eBay's total revenue, mobile payment
transactions $750 million in 2010 and $27 billion in 2013
Google’s HCE (host card emulation),
embedding into its new Android operating system dubbed KitKat
Facebook allows transactions and
potentially money transfers between friends
6 million weekly transactions during the
second quarter
70% growth year-on-year
increase of 500,000 per week in total transactions over the three months prior
launched mobile app in 2009,
by 2013, 11% of in-store transactions were paid via mobile device
ecosystem is changing with products
51,000 patents owned by Google
Google inventors - among them founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page - are now winning 10 patents every day the patent office is open, covering everything from automated cars to balloon-based data networks. For comparison, consider that in all of 2003, Google was awarded four patents. …1800 patents in 2013 Typical smartphone can be covered by as many as 250,000 patents
Google spent $12.5 billion to buy Motorola Mobility, mostly to grab its trove of 17,000 patents and 7,000 patent applications. Google purchased more than a thousand patents from IBM and picked up others from telephone companies and auto parts makers. Google now controls more than 51,000 patents and patents pending.
Amazon’s Method and system for placing a purchase order via a communications network
Amazon’s Recommendation system
Apple’s Graphical user interface patents
Apple’s mobile data patents
AT&T’s patent/s on location based services
Vodafone’s Mobile money transfer patent
Google’s Transportation-aware Advertising
Find Google in 2011…
01 Megawaves Waves of change
02 Reframing Shape your thinking
03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus
04 Human mash-ups under emergence
Digital banking playground is small
Simplify core banking and focus on value-added services
Developing markets go straight to social
innovation relevance
THE SCALE
Calculating Incremental changes to existing structures
mean risk can be calculated
Game Changing High attention due to
it’s radical nature requiring full
commitment in operations and
investment
Minivating Safe innovations, with
only incremental benefit and low risk
Testing Low investment
requirements give it the ‘why not’ factor
Incremental Radical
Low
H
igh
DISRUPTION The disruption dimension takes into account how easily the idea fits in to existing methods and structures. Truly innovative ideas will likely be radical in nature, representing shifts in common practice.
The scale has been calculated as a 4-quadrant model, with each of the quadrants representing different types of innovations or inventions…
INVESTMENT This dimension takes into account investment of capital, as well as energy through change management and culture change.
THE ATTENTION SEEKERS
Calculating Incremental changes to existing structures mean investment risk
can be calculated
Game Changing High attention due to
it’s radical nature requiring full
commitment in operations and
investment
Minivating Safe innovations, with
only incremental benefit and low risk
Testing Low investment
requirements give it the ‘why not’ factor
Ideas falling within this quadrant are likely to attract the most significant amount of attention. They will propose radical changes in the way things are done, and large investment requirements will also ensure the right level of investor interest.
These ideas will also attract a fair amount of interest. Mainly due to their novelty, disrupting current practices, yet with fairly low investment requirements making them accessible and more easily justified.
THE CAUTIONARY APPROACHES
Calculated innovations, are those that offer low disruption to existing practices, yet have fairly high investment requirements. These are seen as reasonable to attempt and calculate from a risk and ROI perspective, yet will not change the game significantly.
More improvements than novel ideas, ‘mini-innovations’ are seen as easy and cheap to implement, creating incremental benefit. These will not disrupt the industry, and are unlikely to receive a large amount of attention.
Game Changing High attention due to
it’s radical nature requiring full
commitment in operations and
investment
Testing Low investment
requirements give it the ‘why not’ factor
Calculating Incremental changes to existing structures
mean risk can be calculated
Minivating Safe innovations, with
only incremental benefit and low risk
CROWD-SOURCING FINTECH
02 IN
VE
STM
EN
T O
F IN
NO
VATI
ON
03 DISRUPTION OF INNOVATION
OUR CROWD-SOURCED VIEW
In total, our members rated 39 of the presenting companies along all three dimensions. We find that the majority of companies had a fairly neutral impact on members across all dimensions, however a few key outliers surfaced too.
Note: ideas that are not plotted along the ‘Disruption’ axis were not fully rated my members